Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVII - Ballroom Blitz - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Durelin · 12-21-2006, 12:53 PM

Here is mormegil's vote:

++Celuien

He is also suspicious of Valier.

Eomer of the Rohirrim · 12-21-2006, 01:08 PM

Sorry for sealing your doom Kath but I felt the need to vote for either you or Morm.

Plenty of villagers for the wolves to pick from. Why Kitanna? She made a few posts yesterday and they were clear and sensible. She suspected Rikae and Morm and then voted for Morm.

Because we have no Seer and so little to go on, I highly doubt that the wolves would be willing to pull off such a risky bluff so early. For that reason, I am inclined to believe both Rikae and Mormegil innocent (of being wolves anyway).

Valier · 12-21-2006, 01:24 PM

Hmmm Kitanna got killed. Now that makes me think...Ok so why would the wolves pick Kitanna. Well the first day kill is usually one made well sort of in spite, the wolves can kill pretty much anyone they want the first day and have it not really point to anyone and if it does that could just be a way for them to desguise themselves as innocent. Or else they thought Kitanna an easy kill that would point to noone...OR they knew that it would make Rikae and Lal look guilty, seeing as they voted for her. So either the wolves are crafty and don't care if the first day voting points to them (ie. Rikae and/or Lal) Or they just killed Kitanna as an easy kill as I stated earlier. So I would like to hear more from Lal and Rikae today, so we can grasp somesort of an idea of what the wolves were up to.

Now yes I will comment on Morm's not here vote and suspision of me....Let me just say Morm ALWAYS suspects me the first few days....Not to say that sometimes he isn't right, but this time he has no good evidence at all to point to my wolvishness, and I assure you I am innocent and just here to help catch us some crafty werewolves.

Cailín · 12-21-2006, 01:35 PM

Hmm, I am not very surprised by Kitanna's death, despite the fact that she got voted for twice. She was overall considered to be innocent and left a very small trail.

Would Wolf-Rikae or Wolf-Mormegil pull a bluff like this? Nah, I do not think they really would have seen the need.

Furthermore, I am even more inclined to believe in Morm's innocence because of his early vote. A wolf would more readily grasp the excuse of absense to not vote at all, I should think. He seems quite convinced of Celuien's guilt, which is interesting. Even though Celuien's posts were careful yesterday, I did not consider her vote for Mormegil very blatantly furry.

I will have to review yesterday's posts again before I name any suspects.

Farael · 12-21-2006, 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cailín

Hmm, I am not very surprised by Kitanna's death, despite the fact that she got voted for twice. She was overall considered to be innocent and left a very small trail.

My bolding, and this is just an example reflecting other comments said earlier on this game.

Does anyone else see the merit of my plan already? Why am I not dead? why isn't Nogrod, or Rikae, or even Folwren or Holbtlass or Celuien dead? What do we all have that Kitanna did not?

Yes, we were loud and noisy, and thus, likely to leave some sort of a trail. What have we said about Kitanna so far?

"Well, she pretty much leaves no trail, it could be a bold bluff, it could be an even bolder double bluff or it could be no bluff at all and the wolves just chose someone who would lead us nowhere"

I must say that I was the first to "abandon ship" and go against my own counsel, but it was too early to decide who was "silent". What would you have me do? vote for someone like Celuien, who became progressively more active as I went away? Since it was too early to make a judgement on the relative "silence" of every player, I was left with the more "regular" day 1 hunches.

Yet Today, not only I will probably be around for the end of the day (and thus, able to see who's been talking and who's not) but we'll also have two days worth of "history" to judge who's lurking in the shadows and who's dancing in the spotlight.

Unless anyone else has any sudden insight or theory on the identity of a wolf, I say we lynch ourselves a silent one.

A few questions that are running through my mind as I write this post.

Valier has posted, but has she said anything?
Is Naria playing this game or am I confused with another one?
Does Lawlende fool anyone with her "I'm a rookie werewolfer" claims? I believe she's smarter than what she lets on... much smarter.

Not that being smart means being a wolf, for all I know she might be a crafty ordo trying to avoid being killed during the breaks, but I'm just asking....

Cailín · 12-21-2006, 03:13 PM

Well, there is one obvious flaw in this plan. It makes things a lot easier for the two wolves, especially if they are notorious loudmouths themselves. They can just continue voting for the silent ones, if this becomes the generally accepted idea: silent ones who leave no trails at all once they are death and proven innocent because they voiced none of their opinions.

It is no good planning who to lynch or even what type of player to lynch. It will just make things easier for the evil creatures. Of course, there is about a 50/50 chance that there indeed is a wolf among the silent ones, but there might as well not be and then where will this plan lead us?

If there are absolutely no other options, only then it might be a good idea to lynch the ambiguous. But when I find wolvish behaviour in someone, that person will get my vote, regardless of quantity of posting.

It is nonetheless good to stimulate people to 'leave trails' as much as possible. It can be a lifesaver.

Lalwendë · 12-21-2006, 04:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Farael

Does Lawlende fool anyone with her "I'm a rookie werewolfer" claims? I believe she's smarter than what she lets on... much smarter.

Not that being smart means being a wolf, for all I know she might be a crafty ordo trying to avoid being killed during the breaks, but I'm just asking....

All I can say on that one is that I've got vibes this time around. Santa's little naughty/nice elf has her antenna tuned in right now...

Macalaure · 12-21-2006, 04:42 PM

I agree that Kitanna is most probably a safe kill.

Poor Kit. Lynched on the first day already again...

How very unfair!

I think I will have a look at the votes now, especially the throw-aways. Since there are multiple lynchings, it is probably in the interest of the wolves to spread the votes - even more than it is usually.

Here's the tally:

Morm --> Rikae, 1
Kitanna --> Morm (Rikae 1, Morm 1)
Farael --> Folwren (Rikae 1, Morm 1, Folwren 1)
Morm X Rikae --> Valier (Morm 1, Folwren 1, Valier 1)
Cailin --> Kath (Morm 1, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 1)
Celuien --> Morm (Morm 2, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 1)
Lal --> Kitanna (Morm 2, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 1, Kitanna 1)
Folwren --> Farael (Morm 2, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 1, Kitanna 1, Farael 1)
Mac --> Kath (Morm 2, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 2, Kitanna 1, Farael 1)
Valier --> Farael (Morm 2, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 2, Kitanna 1, Farael 2)
Rikae --> Kitanna (Morm 2, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 2, Kitanna 2, Farael 2)
Holby --> Morm (Morm 3, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 2, Kitanna 2, Farael 2)
Nogrod --> Kath (Morm 3, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 3, Kitanna 2, Farael 2)
Eomer --> Kath (Morm 3, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 4, Kitanna 2, Farael 2)
Naria --> Rikae (Morm 3, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 4, Kitanna 2, Farael 2, Rikae 1)

Kitanna and Kath are dead. Kath did not vote.
Most suspicious of these are to me:

Cailin - adds Kath as fourth name to the list. Her reasoning is well, but not too convincing.
Lalwende - adds fifth name. Not exactly a well-reasoned vote. This actually makes me feel confident about her. Wouldn't a new player, if a wolf, be more concerned about the appearance of the vote?
Folwren - the sixth name. Why does she not vote morm? You simply don't put a sixth name to the list if your other top suspect is already on the block. Very suspicious.
Valier - ties Farael with morm and Kath. A bit suspicious, but I will leave it there - today.
Rikae - votes for known innocent and ties Kitanna with three others. Suspicious.
Naria - throws vote away late. Voting morm would be too obvious if she is wolvish. Voting Kath would've destroyed the chance of a double lynching (if Kath would have appeared in the last moment). I hope we get her reasons for her vote today and I hope it will be more than "I was in a hurry and couldn't read up and figure out the situation"

According to this, Folwren is highly suspicious, Valier, Rikae and Naria somewhat, Cailín slightly.
I'm also getting strange vibes from two others, but I will wait what today will bring.

Something else:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Farael

Yes, we were loud and noisy, and thus, likely to leave some sort of a trail.

Not necessarily. In fact, loud villagers who are off the trail, which most people are on Dance1, are a gift to the wolves.

Naria · 12-21-2006, 06:29 PM

Quote:

Is Naria playing this game or am I confused with another one?

Umm, I know that Orc's are a little slow Farael or maybe you just missed the memo

. At any rate I posted with what time was given to me during Dance1. Hope that makes your waters a little less murky

Mac, Yes I read through everything and yes I knew the situation. Simply put, I voted for her out of spite.

As of right now, I don't have any firm judgements. I am hoping that this will change as Dance2 tangos on.

Farael · 12-21-2006, 06:33 PM

Wow, i come back here after a long absence and I find only two posts... I should consider it a blessing, since I don't have to do a lot of catch-up, but then I'm trying to put in place a plan that'll only work if we all talk plenty.

I still stand by my plan. What most of you don't seem to grasp is that we could have this plan in place, and yet not vote for one "silent" person. If we are lucky, everyone will talk enough so that we can get a feel for them, and thus we won't lynch anyone based on silence alone. Yet, unless any of you has a "feel" on day 2 for a specific person, I say, let's lynch the "unfeelables" (aka, those that we won't get a feel for as they won't talk) now that it's too soon to have a good feel for anyone anyway!!!

That's the merit of my plan... I don't want to sound as a doom's day theorist, but we'll all regret it by the end of this game, when we start wondering whether Naria is silent because she's afraid of revealing something she should not if she talks more.

And is a misguided Ordo worse than a silent one? If the wolves start killing those that are off the trail hoping to lead us away from their scent, that'll leave only the ordos that are on the trail. If the wolves start killing the ones that are on the trail, then we'll notice it and follow their lead to victory!

And since only two names out of fourteen (at this point in time) are "on the trail", we can (by the use of logic and deduction) figure out after a few days any patterns that might be emerging. There are twelve "off the trail" names and two "on the trail". Thus, by following my plan, we force the wolves to play our game and start eliminating people that will leave a trail, whether by following their accusations directly, or by opposition

By letting the silents leave, we allow the wolves to kill those that leave no trail.

I might be becoming over-protective of my idea, but the more I think of it, the more I start suspecting those of you that oppose it!

Celuien · 12-21-2006, 01:23 PM

Why, how rude, Rude Boy. I challenge you to a roping contest!

Kitanna ...

#49 - commentary on the lynch the silents plan. Thinks it would be better to look at moderates on day 1 and that looking at silents is better for day 2.

#59 - has conflicting ideas about Rikae in light of the lynch the silents plan. Says that Rikae's being loud about pointing out quiet players after Farael's suggestion could be suspicious, but since she doesn't know Rikae's style, she's "torn between thinking you an innocent trying to move the game along or a bumbling wolf that is trying to stay away from the quiet area due to Farael's idea of lynching them."

#62 - conflicted about Morm and his declaration of Eomer's innocence. Finds him hard to pin down.

#74 - thought Mac's first post was normal in response to a suggestion of cobblerishness from Farael, but that a later post from Mac was more suspicious.

#78 Casts a mostly random, partly old history of not trusting him, vote for Mormegil.

She earned two votes, one from Lalwende and one from Rikae.

Not much of a trail to follow at all, which I think is probably why the wolves picked her.

Lalwendë · 12-21-2006, 01:29 PM

Is mormegil's tale of going to the footy a smokescreen or not? Or am I getting paranoid in my old age?

Now Kitanna seemed to be playing very clever to me, a bit too incisive. That brought up my attention. Alas, I think a wolf was taking advantage of my novice status by picking on my vote as someone appropriate to kill - hoping that then attention would be driven towards moi as a wolf!

I am, however, going to begin the second dance with a fresh look at things, seeing as I got it so wrong last time.

12-21-2006, 01:08 PM	#2
Eomer of the Rohirrim Auspicious Wraith Join Date: May 2002 Location: The Netherlands Posts: 4,859	Sorry for sealing your doom Kath but I felt the need to vote for either you or Morm. Plenty of villagers for the wolves to pick from. Why Kitanna? She made a few posts yesterday and they were clear and sensible. She suspected Rikae and Morm and then voted for Morm. Because we have no Seer and so little to go on, I highly doubt that the wolves would be willing to pull off such a risky bluff so early. For that reason, I am inclined to believe both Rikae and Mormegil innocent (of being wolves anyway). __________________ Los Ingobernables de Harlond

12-21-2006, 01:24 PM	#3
Valier Twisted Taleswapper Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: somewhere between sanity and insanity Posts: 1,706	Hmmm Kitanna got killed. Now that makes me think...Ok so why would the wolves pick Kitanna. Well the first day kill is usually one made well sort of in spite, the wolves can kill pretty much anyone they want the first day and have it not really point to anyone and if it does that could just be a way for them to desguise themselves as innocent. Or else they thought Kitanna an easy kill that would point to noone...OR they knew that it would make Rikae and Lal look guilty, seeing as they voted for her. So either the wolves are crafty and don't care if the first day voting points to them (ie. Rikae and/or Lal) Or they just killed Kitanna as an easy kill as I stated earlier. So I would like to hear more from Lal and Rikae today, so we can grasp somesort of an idea of what the wolves were up to. Now yes I will comment on Morm's not here vote and suspision of me....Let me just say Morm ALWAYS suspects me the first few days....Not to say that sometimes he isn't right, but this time he has no good evidence at all to point to my wolvishness, and I assure you I am innocent and just here to help catch us some crafty werewolves. __________________ grand return?........

12-21-2006, 06:33 PM	#10
Farael Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: In hospitals, call rooms and (rarely) my apartment. Posts: 1,538	Wow, i come back here after a long absence and I find only two posts... I should consider it a blessing, since I don't have to do a lot of catch-up, but then I'm trying to put in place a plan that'll only work if we all talk plenty. I still stand by my plan. What most of you don't seem to grasp is that we could have this plan in place, and yet not vote for one "silent" person. If we are lucky, everyone will talk enough so that we can get a feel for them, and thus we won't lynch anyone based on silence alone. Yet, unless any of you has a "feel" on day 2 for a specific person, I say, let's lynch the "unfeelables" (aka, those that we won't get a feel for as they won't talk) now that it's too soon to have a good feel for anyone anyway!!! That's the merit of my plan... I don't want to sound as a doom's day theorist, but we'll all regret it by the end of this game, when we start wondering whether Naria is silent because she's afraid of revealing something she should not if she talks more. And is a misguided Ordo worse than a silent one? If the wolves start killing those that are off the trail hoping to lead us away from their scent, that'll leave only the ordos that are on the trail. If the wolves start killing the ones that are on the trail, then we'll notice it and follow their lead to victory! And since only two names out of fourteen (at this point in time) are "on the trail", we can (by the use of logic and deduction) figure out after a few days any patterns that might be emerging. There are twelve "off the trail" names and two "on the trail". Thus, by following my plan, we force the wolves to play our game and start eliminating people that will leave a trail, whether by following their accusations directly, or by opposition By letting the silents leave, we allow the wolves to kill those that leave no trail. I might be becoming over-protective of my idea, but the more I think of it, the more I start suspecting those of you that oppose it! __________________ I prepared Explosive Runes this morning.

12-21-2006, 01:23 PM	#11
Celuien Riveting Ribbiter Join Date: May 2005 Location: Assigned to Mordor Posts: 1,767	Why, how rude, Rude Boy. I challenge you to a roping contest! Kitanna ... #49 - commentary on the lynch the silents plan. Thinks it would be better to look at moderates on day 1 and that looking at silents is better for day 2. #59 - has conflicting ideas about Rikae in light of the lynch the silents plan. Says that Rikae's being loud about pointing out quiet players after Farael's suggestion could be suspicious, but since she doesn't know Rikae's style, she's "torn between thinking you an innocent trying to move the game along or a bumbling wolf that is trying to stay away from the quiet area due to Farael's idea of lynching them." #62 - conflicted about Morm and his declaration of Eomer's innocence. Finds him hard to pin down. #74 - thought Mac's first post was normal in response to a suggestion of cobblerishness from Farael, but that a later post from Mac was more suspicious. #78 Casts a mostly random, partly old history of not trusting him, vote for Mormegil. She earned two votes, one from Lalwende and one from Rikae. Not much of a trail to follow at all, which I think is probably why the wolves picked her. __________________ People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect. But actually, from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint, it's more like a big ball of wibbly-wobbly, timey-wimey... stuff.

12-21-2006, 01:29 PM	#12
Lalwendë A Mere Boggart Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: under the bed Posts: 4,737	Is mormegil's tale of going to the footy a smokescreen or not? Or am I getting paranoid in my old age? Now Kitanna seemed to be playing very clever to me, a bit too incisive. That brought up my attention. Alas, I think a wolf was taking advantage of my novice status by picking on my vote as someone appropriate to kill - hoping that then attention would be driven towards moi as a wolf! I am, however, going to begin the second dance with a fresh look at things, seeing as I got it so wrong last time. __________________ Gordon's alive!

12-21-2006, 12:53 PM	#1
Durelin Estelo dagnir, Melo ring Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 3,063	Here is mormegil's vote: ++Celuien He is also suspicious of Valier.

12-21-2006, 01:35 PM	#4
Cailín Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Lurking in the shadows. Posts: 711	Hmm, I am not very surprised by Kitanna's death, despite the fact that she got voted for twice. She was overall considered to be innocent and left a very small trail. Would Wolf-Rikae or Wolf-Mormegil pull a bluff like this? Nah, I do not think they really would have seen the need. Furthermore, I am even more inclined to believe in Morm's innocence because of his early vote. A wolf would more readily grasp the excuse of absense to not vote at all, I should think. He seems quite convinced of Celuien's guilt, which is interesting. Even though Celuien's posts were careful yesterday, I did not consider her vote for Mormegil very blatantly furry. I will have to review yesterday's posts again before I name any suspects.

12-21-2006, 03:13 PM	#6
Cailín Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Lurking in the shadows. Posts: 711	Well, there is one obvious flaw in this plan. It makes things a lot easier for the two wolves, especially if they are notorious loudmouths themselves. They can just continue voting for the silent ones, if this becomes the generally accepted idea: silent ones who leave no trails at all once they are death and proven innocent because they voiced none of their opinions. It is no good planning who to lynch or even what type of player to lynch. It will just make things easier for the evil creatures. Of course, there is about a 50/50 chance that there indeed is a wolf among the silent ones, but there might as well not be and then where will this plan lead us? If there are absolutely no other options, only then it might be a good idea to lynch the ambiguous. But when I find wolvish behaviour in someone, that person will get my vote, regardless of quantity of posting. It is nonetheless good to stimulate people to 'leave trails' as much as possible. It can be a lifesaver.