Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVI - Úcenite Valto

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by SPM

Phantom, are we ever actually going to get some serious analysis from you, or are you still in dark-man-of-mystery mode?

Heh- I'm always in that mode.

As far as "serious analysis", throughout the game I've pretty much provided what I felt needed to be said. The vast majority of my thoughts I keep to myself, for this game is so incredibly hunch/feeling based (because of the lack of WW teams) that most of my thoughts are whimsical feelings, which change with every read-through. I mean, I can tear all sorts of holes in every thought I have, so why pass along such garbage to the village? It would only waste your valuable time.

But that said, I am going to at least do a little bit of "serious analysis".

I should like to start with firsts. First posts, that is. First posts might be as telling as anything. Mine was, I believe.

Di's first post

Esty's first post

Kath's first post

Roa's first post

Di's first post is light, short, and plays on the idea of using grudges. It seems to be very much in line with her usual attitude. Of course, we've never seen her as a baddie, so who knows?

Esty's first post emphasises cluelessness, and she complains about not being able to influence the vote, and she doesn't like the idea of a random lynching. This is Esty's first post from her other game (WW XII). There is a huge difference between the two. Why? Is it just role-play and nothing else?

Kath suggests that on Day 1 we lynch based on past grudges so that they're gone by Day 3 or so and we don't fall back onto them. I'm really intrigued by this. It seems to be a good thought and yet not helpful at all. She also says that there are ways of picking out the WWs despite the format. In her next post she says she doesn't have any grudges. How convenient considering she suggested lynching grudges. She posts a couple more times asking about the deadline and voting. She jokes about SPM in #87. Then she does another one liner. Then she votes for me and says that she's bandwagoning. Would a WW come out and say this? It seems to me the answer is yes.

Roa objects to Ang's comment about Fea wanting to break Roa's winning streak. She says "Hey! I've lost before. Ask Nogrod- he was there. Once, sure, but it still counts. And it was completely my fault. Curse my boldness! It was the end of me!" Is she trying to make herself look less dangerous? She doesn't like the Di-rule. Then she refutes my pessimism and says that the village is not powerless. Buttering up the chances of the villagers?

Okay...

Take my opinion with a ladle of salt, for I have not had time to go through and read all the posts of my four suspects. But as it stands right now my order of suspicion-
Kath
Roa and Esty
Di

I'm feeling like voting for Kath.