Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVI - Úcenite Valto

[Diamond18]

If you do Day 1, I'll do Day 2.

I have to re-read Day 2 anyway, since I had to skim a lot at the end of yesterDay.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Dear me, Roa's analysis almost makes me scared of myself!

Let me say one thing now, then I will not repeat it. Any "frothiness" (I love that word, Roa! ) in my posts is there because I fully intend to have fun in this game. I joined it because it was to be simple, with none of the complicated roles and changing characters that have been so prevalent in many WW games. If my playfulness gets me suspected and lynched, so be it. But as the song says, "Girls just wanna have fun."

Actually, so far my playing has produced a balanced result - one negative rep, one positive rep, one lynch vote, one plea to keep me alive for my entertainment value. Why should I change anything...

Now, to get down to toDay's business: I'm glad we have found one of the werewolves, though it makes finding the second one more difficult statistically. We do, however, now have data to analyze. The problem is that any conclusions to be made are a matter of interpretation.

Votes for Eomer: Ang, Mith, phantom, LMP, Di Of those, LMP is proven innocent by his death. Only one werewolf is left to have killed him. So that werewolf can no longer be going for a fellow werewolf.

If one of the votes for Eomer came from a fellow werewolf, Ang, Mith, phantom, and Di are the suspects. There is, of course, the possibility that they are only shrewd players who had his measure from familiarity with his playing style.

The primary question now is: Who killed Elempi? That is the remaining werewolf. Was it SPM with his constant feud? He did vote for him yesterDay. I will have to look at LMP's previous posts more closely to see if he was suspecting someone and had to be killed before the remaining WW was discovered.

[Roa_Aoife]

SPM Summary

Day 1
Post 1- "Wolves are in competition" theory, isn't worried about wolves learning anything new from it, since any wolf should have figured it out, suggests the wolves prime target will be each other, believes that a wolf must be the lone survivor to win, agrees with Ang that we have all the cards, says innocents shouldn't worry about dying, says he has little to go on, is wary of any suggestion to focus attention on any one villager

Post 2- the "One vote apiece" plan

Post 3- Responsive post: To Esty- We're essentially flipping coins anyways, To Morm- doesn't think that the tie must necessarily be two-way; To Ang- his knowledge is due to pre-game enquiries

Post 4- rethinks point about ties, concedes that morm may be right

Post 5-
• Doesn't think the day has been productive, says no one has bothered to think about whether the wolves are working together or alone,
• says he would have made his inquiry whether he was a wolf or an innocent, and that as a wolf, he would have kept it to himself,
• recants 13-way tie plan,
• thinks that the players most capable of messing with our heads are the likeliest wolf choices,
• agrees with Nogrod that everyone here makes a good wolf choice, agrees with Ang that one Wolf was completely random.
• Says he holds no grudges and doesn't know who would hold a grudge against him
• Always suspects LMP, Eomer, Morm, and phantom (THREE ARE DEAD, LOOK OUT PHANTOM!)
• Thinks that both Boromir and phantom have directed a lot of time telling everyone they're innocent

Post 6- Votes phantom
"Because he has spent an inordinate amount of time telling us that we should not lynch him today.
Because he is Fea's obvious choice of Wolf. And Fea likes double bluffs. So the obvious might well be the truth.
Because, as he has admitted, his logical analysis is of little use to us in this game.
And because the idea of lynching the phantom on the first day amuses me."

Post 7- Insistence that it's uncertain that the wolves are working together, response to phantom's defense http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=112

Post 8- To Nogrod- "as it turns out, it seems that I was quite possibly laboring under a misapprehension." (Not sure what he's referring to.)
Clarification about expendable villagers statement, say professions of innocence and heated defenses are going to look suspicious to him
List of villagers and reactions:
Ang= slightly suspicious, but good value
Boro= can't tell if he finds him suspicious or not
Di= nothing to go on
Eomer= Dangerously quiet
Estelyn= Not really suspicious
Kath= suggestion of wolfishness in vote
LMP= useless and suspicious
Mith= Less suspicious than most
Morm= See Eomer
Nogrod= Nogrod
Roa= good optimism
Phantom= really suspicious
Vote Tally

Post 9- Response to Roa, agrees that traditional uses of voting record are not viable

Post 10- Says that a Kath-wolf voting for tp makes him look innocent, but this is hypothetical, since phantom is his prime suspect

Post 11- Says he may vote for Boromir, but is leaning towards LMP

Post 12- Vote record
Says phantom has made solid contributions, while LMP has not, doesn't like the reasoning behind his vote for Diamond, says Fea would likely pick him for a wolf, retracts phantom vote, votes LMP
http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=131

Post 13- Vote record

Post 14- Says he may have voted Boromir had he seen his vote before his retraction

Post 15- Says he will hang around till the end of the Day

[Roa_Aoife]

Analysis of SPM on Day 1

The first thing that jumped out at me was his stance on phantom, which changed quite suddenly. Between the attack on phantom's defense, and SPM's change in vote, Phantom is silent. There was nothing to cause SPM to drop his vote, especially in the rather nonchalant manner in which he does it. It makes it seem like the whole thing was smoke and mirrors, with no substance at all.

Also, his post #131 bears heavy scrutiny. His reasons for voting LMP are heavily flawed at best and completely bogus at worst. He said himself that heavy statements of innocence would attract his attention, and Diamond did this more often than phantom did, to be sure. Yet when LMP used that reasoning to vote for Diamond, SPM found it a suitable reason to vote for his lynching. He also didn't like that LMP had voted based on a grudge, which numerous others had done during the day. It comes across, to me at least, as a heavy charade.

He also bears the same muted pessimism as Esty. He keeps hinting that we're hopeless, and that there's no room for logic here, with out ever actually stating it. He also keeps pushing his "the wolves are at each other's throats" idea through all of it. Why? What purpose did it serve?

Personally, I think Nogrod was on the right track.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I'm going to go back and check all of LMP's posts to see if he was on to anyone.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

OK, too many posts to list individually, so I will sum up what I have found in LMP's posts and voting:

#241 was his last post; in it he exonerated SPM of any real suspicion, saying that their spats were just the usual. He is somewhat suspicious of the Phantom, but his suspicion of Eomer resulted in a change of his vote, away from Di to Eomer. It would seem, then, that neither SPM nor Di had reason to dispense of him.

#226 expounds his reasons for suspecting both SPM and Phantom.

#212, his first vote yesterDay for Diamond.

#208: His list - this could be an important clue!

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

Who I think is innocent (all gut feeling as there really, really isn't much else that can honestly be said by anybody with any certainty at all {Elempi glares at Espiem}):

Elempi (obviously)
the phantom
Espiem
Mithalwen

Who I'm not at all sure about:
Nogrod
Kath
Anguirel
Estelyn

Who I think may be a werewolf:

PreciousPrism18

Roa
Eomer

Eomer has been rather quiet and rather disengaging, and his posts nonchalant and disarming. I don't trust that in him.

Roa is capable of just about anything. I learned that in a certain DW game.

Diamond: she's due.

More in a bit - real life calls me away now. (Well, barks me away, actually - time to walk the dog...)

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Back to analysis of LPM's posts:

#178 replies to SPM's suspicions and asks the reason for them. His summary:

SPM is just as dangerous in this game as any, whether innocent and a threat to the werewolves, or a werewolf and a threat to the village. The odds are 2 in 13 that he is innocent; but if he is not, he is a most dangerous enemy. Let us take care.

#176 defines his reasons for suspecting Di: "Protested too Prodigeously for my liking... ... her unnecessary defense which struck me as likely as not as that of a first time werewolf whose nerves have gotten to her."

His first day first vote for Ang can be seen in the context of previous happenings and was revoked anyway to vote for Di.

Going on the basis of his votes, his secondary prime candidate was obviously Di. Since he was astute enough to find out the one werewolf we've caught so far, he might be onto something there.

The other person on his werewolf list (#208) is Roa.

I would not let either SPM nor Phantom off the hook of possible werewolves. Though I have not yet considered Phantom guilty, I am well aware of his abilities and trust him to be able to double/triple/quadruple bluff his way through any game.

Any earlier LPM posts are not relevant to the current situation, as I see it.


The following voted for Eomer: Ang, Mith, phantom, Di

Names on both lists: Ang (only initially and admittedly because of an old grudge, so probably not a serious suspicion)

phantom - always to be taken seriously as a possible threat

Diamond - for the same reason I myself had - too vociferous in her protestation of innocence. Anyone can say it, but making a rule of it is going too far!


So far, that would keep Di on top of my list of suspects. Right now, the others on that list are SPM and possibly phantom.

As to the others, several are relatively unknown to me, so I have no idea how to assess them. It's still early in the day, so maybe more evidence will show up.

[The Saucepan Man]

He he. So Eomer was a Wolf. Who’d have thunk it?

I would wager that, if the Dark Lady did hand pick one of her servants, then this was the one. If so, then the other Wolf was either a random choice or (more likely, on the basis of what we have been told so far) indirectly selected in some way. Either way, they are going to be more difficult to find.

It is difficult to draw many conclusions from the votes for Eomer yesterday. I am tempted to wonder whether the other Wolf had spotted Eomer’s furry inclinations and took the opportunity to help eliminate him. However, it just as likely that the other Wolf did not vote for Eomer, either because he/she did not spot him or because he/she was more intent on trying to kill innocents. So, I am doubtful that the votes themselves will tell us much. That said, the timing of them or the reasoning given might well hold some clues, so those are matters that I will be looking further into.

I tend to think that Eomer was keen to find and eliminate his fellow Wolf. As I explained yesterday, it would be the sensible thing for a Wolf to do. Eomer’s vote for Kath was based on such reasoning (that one Wolf had been looking for the other in selecting morm as their kill) and the best Wolfish plans are often based upon an underlying truth. This would implicate Kath, who has certainly been keeping a low profile (although she has sought to explain that). However, it presupposes that Eomer was following such a plan and that he had correctly identified his fellow Wolf, neither of which is anything like certain. I remain unsure about Kath, but will bear this in mind.

Now, Elempi …

Ah, Elempi. I am sorry if I impaired your enjoyment of this rollercoaster-of-a-game, but I did suspect you, and not simply because it is traditional for me to do so. Heartless though it may sound, I am rather glad that you bought it in the night, as I would undoubtedly have carried on after you today were you still here. Your removal eliminates something of a stumbling block for me …

But where does this leave me? My mains suspects yesterday where Elempi, Eomer and Esty, with a smattering of Roa thrown in. However, I need to consider the implications of Elempi as choice of nightly kill and also ponder what has been said so far today.

To avoid giving further headaches to those who would seek to analyse my lengthy and verbose posts (), I will cut this short here and return anon with some further thoughts.

[The Saucepan Man]

Elempi was a strange choice of kill. As I suggested before, his continued presence was diverting my attention from other possible Wolves, and he was also garnering suspicion in some other quarters (although not yet enough to warrant a vote from others).

So why kill him? One possibility is that it was an attempt to set me up. On the face of it, it seems unlikely that a Wolfish SpM would kill the villager that he suspected the most and voted for. But, because that is the obvious conclusion, a cunning Wolf may well have been seeking to implicate me as a double-bluffing Wolf.

Or was Elempi chosen because he had one of the Wolves on his “probably innocent” list. That would implicate the phantom, Mithalwen and me.

Or possibly, the Wolf was one of those Elempi most suspected, which would implicate Diamond and Roa. Diamond more so, I think, because she has been in danger of being lynched on both of the previous days and so would be more concerned to eliminate one of the possible votes for her.

However, I tend to think it more likely that the Wolf was one whom Elempi neither particularly suspected nor trusted, as this leaves less of a trail and points instead towards those in the categories identified above. This would implicate Ang, Noggie, Kath and Esty.

Since I am still inclined (for now) to view Nogrod and Anguirel as innocent, Elempi’s choice as nightly kill, to my mind, most strongly implicates Kath and Esty.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

...that's what I keep telling myself.

Only one werewolf in the game now.

Only one vote for me toDay.

It's simple - just vote for the one!

Today I will be looking for the one person of whom I am most suspicious. Unless I get killed instead, either by lynching or by wolf, then I will concentrate on the next one.

[the phantom]

I've been rereading posts and just generally skimming over the thread. After doing so, I feel the need to remake my guilt list.

Every time I reread my feelings change. That's so annoying. It reminds me I don't have anything concrete.

PURE AND SPOTLESS
Ang
the phantom

LEANING TOWARDS INNOCENT
Esty
Mith
Nogrod
Roa
SPM

KEEP AN EYE ON
Di
Kath

There are several people that I'm swinging back and forth on from one extreme to the other as I read the thread. Mainly it's Di, Kath, Mith, and SPM. I swear, sometimes I think they're completely innocent, and then two minutes later I'm ready to vote for them. With SPM though it may just be that I have an inclination to get into it with him as I have in past villages. That's why I didn't do a Roa-style myself on him. I wanted to see others do it- people who don't have my fight-with-SPM urges.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

One brief thought that came to me upon reskimming the thread: The "who would Fea choose as a WW" argument is worth nothing. She handpicked the whole lot of us - there's not one who is easily expendable or a "most likely to get lynched on the first day" candidate. She would have loved to make each and any of us a werewolf. Can you imagine how difficult it must have been for her to choose only two?!

[Anguirel]

I'm not all that proud of my catch yesterday...I stooped to conquer...

SPM was right to say that my "honeytrap" was actually less real than it might have looked. Declaring my ploy was in itself a ploy, to create some spurious evidence and encourage Eomer votes. Still, I suppose the fact it all worked was a Good Thing.

I notice Nogrod is no longer entirely saintly in the phantom's view. Care to tell, o phantom, why you were previously so sure that you warned Mith off him? Or is it merely that the sight of people defying your innocence list is painful to you?

Last night's kill was, of course, the unanimous choice of one wolf. I thought it was going to be me, actually. LMP seems to fit the pattern of killing the relatively quiet and trailless, though not as much as morm did.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

...that should be "whom" would Fea choose, of course. For someone like me, used to rereading my own posts and editing to correct all typos, spelling and grammar errors, the non-editing rule is indeed annoying!