Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVI - Úcenite Valto

[Roa_Aoife]

Estelyn Summary

Day 1
Post 1- Wonders if her vote will count if there aren't any bandwagons, doesn't know how to reach consensus, points out that SPM's plan means that Fea could play by herself

Post 2- Remark that we shouldn't trust phantom just because he says so, in character nonsense

Post 3- Reminds everyone of her 100% innocent record

Post 4- Also 100% winning streak

Post 5- "Moi?! On your lynch list? How did that happen?"

Post 6- Appreciation to Diamond, banter about being an attractive WW candidate

Post 7- "If it wouldn't give the wolves an advantage, lynching Bb would be a great idea!"

Post 8- Suggests lynching Boromir, Di, and Nogrod to solve their time conflict

Post 9- "Now there's a fun idea - lynch the mod the very first day!! That's the one way to ensure she won't be the one winning at the end!"

Post 10- Vote count, says she would vote for someone who already has a vote to make voting effective, voting Bb makes no sense, still trusts phantom, has no reason to mistrust LMP or Ang, worried about Boromir because "he's an experienced player with quite a few games under his belt."

Post 11- in character

Post 12- clarification on previous typo, votes Boromir "based on several next-to-nothings"

Day 2
Post 1- can't understand Fea's narration, but assumes it's there for a purpose, wonders if we will not know the role of the deceased, thinks we don't have a chance for logic in this game, thinks Fea was displeased with one of the wolves, says her vote for Boromir was statistically inevitable, doesn't think our accuracy will be any greater

Post 2- Says phantom's conclusion (post #164) makes her think of Diamond, doesn't believe in Diamond's rule

Post 3- Points to newbieness as reason for being quiet, is suspicious of Di, still trusts phantom

Post 4- thinks she was chosen due to the rarity of her presence, thinks she will be less calculable for the experts

Post 5- says next few posts will be for amusement

Post 6- WW, Books forum-style

Post 7- TiG Palantir of Fortune

Post 8- New Werewolves - Introduce Yourself Here

Post 9- Says she really can't think of anything constructive, posts her gutfeelings, trusts phantom, distrusts Di, uncertain about everyone else

Post 10- Votes Diamond

Post 11- corrects vote

[Roa_Aoife]

Analysis

Day 1 saw a whole lot of nothing from Estelyn. Her pessimism about our situation is similar to phantom's "pessimism," only hers is far more subtle and less attention getting. She also makes a point of stating multiple times that she trusts phantom, which I personally find odd. Rule No 1 of any WW game involving phantom is "Don't trust phantom, at least not until Day 2." Did she really trust the Ploy Master, or was she buddying up in attempt to appeal to his oh so large ego after he began noticing her lupine appeal?

She posted more than some others on day one, yet said the least out of everyone. I believe the term for this is frothiness, and frothiness is always worrying. It's a rather convenient place to hide, and she's managed to slip below the radar again. Nogrod said that one liners wouldn't be problem in this group, but Esty has a number of them. She also uses the old "Newbie Defense" saying that it's her inexperience in the game that causes both the quiet and the froth. She appeals to all our egos by saying that she's learning from us.

On Day 2, she continues with her pessimism about logic in this game. She also picks up on Di, and sticks with it through out the day, which is consistent, but makes me wonder if it's not a wolf picking up new prey. She conveniently and continuously points to the logic of others to make her case, posting nothing of her own reasoning.

What has me the most worried is her 10 post of the game, #105, where she briefly but systematically eliminates her choices for a vote. What bothers me is her reasoning. She actually wants to bandwagon on the leaders, thus continuing her lack of need for an actual case. She eliminates the main leader, phantom, with her statement of trust, then cuts out the other likely candidates, LMP and Ang, because she "has no reason to mistrust them." Boromir, on the other hand, has lots of experience and so is more dangerous. Her bizarre (to me, anyways) trust in phantom aside, the reasoning she uses to vote for Boromir is equally applicable to LMP and Ang, if not more so.

At this point in time, few people (namely Diamond) had any sort of case against Boromir, and it was mostly facetiousness. A safer vote could never be thrown.