Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVI - Úcenite Valto

[littlemanpoet]

Just letting you all know I'm here.

For the lynching.

Feel free.

But you'd be wasting your vote.

Of course that means nothing to you that I say that.

Cry havoc ye gods of war and werewolf!

Avast.

Anguirel, I'll lynch you yet.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

While thinking to myself "Nothing to post..." I thought I'd throw in this little thought.

It's tempting to accept that we can't really get anywhere without luck. Is this going to lead us into a situation whereby we will be in exactly the same predicament on Day Two as we are in on Day One? And thence to Day Three similarly?

The wolves are not on the same page, so until we catch one we are puzzling over a muddled script. When/If we do catch one, we might make clearer guesses.

[The Saucepan Man]

Did anyone think to enquire whether the Wolves are working as a team or as lone hunters?

I did. And my understanding is that they are working alone. Which means that they are in competition.

This, I think, is a very useful piece of information. I paused to consider before deciding whether to set out my thoughts on how this might affect the situation, as I don’t want to give the Wolves any guidance as to how to behave to avoid detection. On balance, however, since any Wolf worth his or her salt (and every potential Wolf here is worth his or her salt) will be able to work it out, I thought it would be more advantageous to do so than not to do so. So, my preliminary thoughts based on this information are as follows.

First, the Wolves will be looking to kill each other, as well as killing innocent villagers. Indeed, I would go so far as to suggest that a Wolf's prime target at the moment will be the other Wolf. There is little advantage to an individual Wolf in having another Wolf operating independently in the village, given that there will still only be one nightly kill. Some advantage perhaps in the cover that it offers, but that is little different from the cover offered by innocent villagers. Certainly, to my mind, the disadvantages, to a Wolf, of having another Wolf operating independently outweigh any advantage. While both Wolves survive, then one is at risk of being killed by the other at night (and therefore losing), as well as being lynched during the day, and neither can be sure that their chosen nightly kill will end up dead the next morning. That the Wolves are out for each other’s blood should work to the village’s advantage while they both survive.

Secondly, since a dead Wolf is a losing Wolf, the Wolves are going to be far more afraid of dying than when hunting as a pack (where they can still end up on the winning team even if they die).

Originally Posted by Ang

Remember everyone, we're the strongest village in history. We have no Seer, which gives the wolves, already diminished and confused, nothing to aim at! If you think about it, the cards are all on our side.

I rather agree with this. We have no Gifteds to worry about. Since it is more than likely that we will kill a few innocents along the way to victory, we should not worry about doing so. It’s not like we will be killing our Seer or anything. Innocents, therefore, should not be afraid to die while we still have a significant advantage in numbers.

Very little to go on so far, so I have no suspects and no presumed innocents. I am, however, wary of the suggestion that we should focus our attention on one villager (namely Roa) as, unless that suggestion is by some chance (ie blind luck) correct, we will be making it much easier for the Wolves to avoid death.

[The Saucepan Man]

Another thought. How about we aim to make sure that each one of us has received one vote by the end of the day and leave it to blind luck who gets lynched?

Difficult to achieve, I suppose, as it will require the agreement and participation of every villager. One possibility is to have each villager vote for the person named after them on the original list in post #1, ie Ang votes for Boro, Boro votes for Di etc etc.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Another thought. How about we aim to make sure that each one of us has received one vote by the end of the day and leave it to blind luck who gets lynched?

Difficult to achieve, I suppose, as it will require the agreement and participation of every villager. One possibility is to have each villager vote for the person named after them on the original list in post #1, ie Ang votes for Boro, Boro votes for Di etc etc.

The problem there, as I see it, is that Fea stated that she would only take the first two to reach a tie; in other words in your scenario Boro and Di would be the two candidates for lynching and nobody else unless you have a 13 sided coin.

5) And most importantly, I am not a Werewolf. You may put me down next to your own name on your proven innocent list.

Glad to know that! I mean for just a second I thought I had better examine what you say. Now I know that I can focus elsewhere, because Fea simply wouldn't ever make you a wolf to satisfy her own morbid sense of chaos.

[Mithalwen]

*arrives a little startled* ... sorry this is a slightly earlier start than expected and I have had little time to do more than read the rules such as they are and skim the posts ... doesn't seem that anyone has declared a dislike of Day Ones yet..

This really is a bit of a Donald Rumsfeld farewell game ... known unknowns and no doubt many unknown unknowns.... so stabbing in the dark may be order of the day.... more no doubt later but that tiresome thing called gainful employement interupts....

[Anguirel]

Weeell. If you're right, Sauce, about the wolves being in competition, that puts us in an incredibly strong position, but I must say I got no hint of that either in the narration or the rules.

So by the scenario you think we're in, if the village is reduced to four and the two wolves live, the struggle continues?

I must say I don't put credence in that. Unless this is specifically clarified by Fea, I will assume that the two werewolves regard each other as (albeit unknown and unpredictable) allies. Having what would be in effect a pair of Werebears seems to make the whole affair far too difficult for the enemy. This is an unorthodox pack, but a pack nonetheless, methinks.

I think we should recall that the, ahem, Dark Lady of the Werewolves hinted that personal animus and politics, relating to her and each other, might play some role. Would it be useful, then, to confess to any feuds we nurse against our fellow villagers? Some shadows of the past have already surfaced...Boro wants Roa hanged and LMP remembers Shamville...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Interesting idea, SPM, I had not even considered that possibility.

Also, on further inspection: when does the game end? Who can win? I really want to assume nothing and suspect that every word (and omitted word) in Fea's introduction hides vast trickery and deceit.

[Anguirel]

Point taken, Eomer. So the fact there's no reference to the endgame means we're probably going to be stuck as the Dark Lady's pawns for the rest of eternity.

Oh, well. I could think of worse fates. Esty, whip me up a nice buttercream and jam tart while I dredge up a sonnet for a bit of literary analysis, will you?

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Would anyone like a glass of milk to go with their clueless posts?

So if we don't bandwagon against anyone, will my individual vote count for anything? Mind you, I have no one specific in mind, but am puzzled as to how we are to arrive at a consensus. As it is now, I will have to vote early and thereby have no possibility whatsoever of actually influencing the outcome of the day.

*starts trying to recall all the children's rhymes that were once used for random decisionmaking...

Saucy, your suggestion means Fea could play the game all by herself, just tossing a coin each day and letting us know what happens.