Tol-In-Gauroth XXIV: Battle of the Band[Wagon]

[Boromir88]

Might I point out, Boro, that Volo also named you as 'talking sense'? I presume that means he was listing you as innocent. Meaning that you might also be the wolf hidden in his broad innocent list.~Celuien

I didn't include myself because whatever I would say would obviously be seen as biased. I left that up for other people like yourself to interpret because there's no point on doing an analysis on myself.

I'd be interested in hearing more about why you find me suspicious. Is there anything other than that Volo suspected me and that Menel also found me suspicious?

Relax just a little bit. If you notice I said I probably won't be voting for you today. But of those that Volo listed as 'suspicious' I find that you are the most wolfish looking one. Because of the death of Menel.

Now that you do bring this up, I'm growing more concerned over you Celuien, especially with this comment here:

As for Menel, the last thing I would do if I were a wolf accused by him would be to kill him at night. Too obvious, and I'm not that bold.

The game my brother was in last village Valesse said pretty much this exact same thing to me when he started suspecting her. And Valesse turned out to be a wolf. It may not be the same here, but I'm getting more concerned about you. It looks like if you are trying to convince me that it would be way too bold and foolish for you to do such a thing. Which is exactly what wolf-Valesse tried to do.

And also the expected move of an innocent who made a case and had it answered (partially) to his satisfaction.

That's true.

[Celuien]

I did see that you were unlikely to vote for me, though I was wondering why you found me the most suspicious of the three Volo suspects. Since it's because of Menel, the only defense I have is the one that I've already given, which I apparently can't give without making you more suspicious of me.

Now I'm going to go and have some tea before I get myself into more trouble.

[Glirdan]

I think I may have to vote shortly and personally I still find something odd about Folwren. But now there have been a few good points raised against Mac.

From the points that Nogrod and Durelin have both brought up, Mac has been acting a little oddly from his previous ancestors as well.

What to do, what...to...do.....

[Nogrod]

This is actually getting pretty frustrating! I have gone forwards and backwards of all the things said and acts performed and I can see almost all of you others as wolves trying to do this or that! That is the power of the imagination... at least when one has nothing solid to back one's views.

Glirdy: don't go too easily with the points made by myself and Durelin on Macalaure. I thought I had spotted the wolf as I made my points on him earlier (and I still think that it is a possible scenario), but after scanning around, I have come up with a number of other scenarios too. So just come up with a vote from your own premises and declare them. At this point of the game we need actual ideas, not trailing...

Yes, one might just be a bit late (due to RL) and see that others have said what you kind of wished to say, but still, give us your own point of view and the reasoning behind it (how you yourself came to suspect X)! Otherwise I will think that you are being opportunistic... and which characters we know loving that stance? I have not forgotten my suspicions of you yesterDay even though they have been quite shallow toDay as I have turned my attention elsewhere...

[Glirdan]

Thank you Nogrod for saying that for I have made up my mind. Though I had it made up a few hours back. I just needed to consider everything else that had been said.

And with that, I vote

++Folwren

For reasons I have said earlier. There is something that's seriously bugging me with her.

[Folwren]

Boromir, I don't understand your suspicion of Celuien. Menel's suspicion was so slight I hardly noticed. He said that it would either be her or me that he voted for and he decided to vote for me because there seemed to be more evidence against me, as there was. His suspicion of Celuien was mere speculation - he said:

I'm not too sure about Celuien myself. From what she said yesterday, she mainly repeats what was said and then says she will be going for the middle ground. I don't really find that extremely suspicious but something doesn't sit right...

And then later he said:

My vote will probably be either for Folwren or Celuien toDay, and I'm inclined to suspect Folwren more. I'll be back around 11:30 to vote. Don't eat all my jelly doughnuts, please.

On day one there's not much to tell of anybody. That was just a thought of his. I don't think it's enough to say that Celuien, being a wolf, knocked Menel off so that he couldn't continue his suspicion of her. Menel was a good player, and smart, and that may be explanation enough as to why the wolves killed him.

Celuien also voted for Volo. Second person to, I think. If she were a wolf, I highly doubt she'd vote for him and bring more attention to him.

Nogrod's

This is actually getting pretty frustrating! I have gone forwards and backwards of all the things said and acts performed and I can see almost all of you others as wolves trying to do this or that!

sounds genuine enough. For now, I'm willing to think him a friend.

Glirdan. . .it's kind of hard to like someone who's trying to kill you.

Lommy. . .it's almost equally hard to like someone who first brought suspicion on you, especially when it causes so much trouble. But I forgive her, so long as she's not proven guilty. No thoughts, therefore.

Time to eat, must go.

-- Folwren

[Diamond18]

Just posting to say that I have arrived... I've read through all the posts but since you've all been quite talkative it'll take me a while to make heads or tails of it all. I just wanted to comment on:

Originally Posted by Celuien

Personally, I'd be cautious about using anything from Volo's last post. His fate was pretty well sealed at that time, and what he said probably aimed more to causing confusion or frantically trying to save himself than anything else. At any rate, a known wolf's village words are inherently untrustworthy.

It looked to me like Volo wasnt really aware that he was doomed when he posted that up. He'd posted earlier saying he was working on a post and at that point his fate was not sealed. So I suspect that post is still in the mindset of a wolf trying to fool the village into thinking its the viewpoint of an innocent.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Diamond18: Now what is this? I love your language and attitude but I am starting to suspect you too. Why is it that you are so careful not to say anything that would offend anyone? My lorebooks tell me that your family is much more vocal in these matters when innocent!

Yeah. I used to have more time. Now I don't... and consequently my werewolf a-game has been pretty much all shot to pieces. So I'm more hesitant to cast judgement when I'm aware that I haven't done the re-reading and throurough contemplating I used to be able to do. Anyway, there goes my sob story. I'll be around later with my thoughts.

[Nogrod]

Okay. Against all reason or self-protection, knowing that I'm not able to defend myself when the heat will be on (as you all innocents are annoyed about myself making all these suspicions on you), I will go for this and arouse suspicion on most of you. Rest assured, I can't see you all as wolves, that is just impossible, but I hope one or two (!) of my ideas hold true or / and that these ideas might contribute for a succesful Day2 lynching (I will probably only be able to pop in and vote after this in something like 7 hours from now).


Folwren and Durelin I hold as innocents right now, due to the way they have posted. If pressed, I would think Folwren a bit more innocent than Durelin.

Thinlomien has computer-access problems. I know this. But her readiness to jump on Folwren might be seen as wolvish tactics taking advance of the RL situation? But otherwise, it might be just trying to find the best argument one might find early on the Day1 when forced to leave the computer.

Glirdan: How come you duck away all the suspicions and beautifully go for a "safe vote" again? It seems you had really not thought of your vote but just went along with what could be seen as reasonable - even though many of us have thought otherwise. Not too much time to read through and happy to cling into something?

Diamond18: Now what is this? I love your language and attitude but I am starting to suspect you too. Why is it that you are so careful not to say anything that would offend anyone? My lorebooks tell me that your family is much more vocal in these matters when innocent!

Eonwe posts more in quantity and with more reason as no forefather of his I have seen. Should we think this is an "at last a wolf"-Eonwe wishing to make a difference or just an Eonwe who wishes to actually play the game for a change?

Rune I suspected a lot yesterDay, but now I'm not so sure about the grounds of my suspicions of him. He was nicely trailing the arguments Menel and Boro were making and looked like a wolf hunkering behind the arguments of the vocal ones. Also his touchiness about the force majeure -leaving the game looked a bit odd. His defence of Folwren toDay seemed genuine enough, but that also might be a good tactics by a wolf trailing the general impression? But this I find most disturbing, unless he really comes about with a good case:

Originally Posted by Rune #83

I have a chief suspect, but I need to observe the person for a bit to figure out if my theory holds water. . .

I can se the reason why he is not willing to disclose the one he is after, but why to mention it in the first place? Making oneself look as a goody?

THE Ka: I would hope you to tell us what you meant by the following:

Originally Posted by The Ka #93

I'm beginning to see that maybe our wolves are not working together so well, but that depends on whether all of this flustering is not a cover up for it... Either our wolves were scrambling yesterday, and had somewhat of a disarray, or all of this flustering is a neat diversion for confusion.

It looks like a deep insight to the wolf-mind. I mean not the usual "yes I can imagine how they thought" but actually how could you deduce the things you've said, the internal conflicts or bad co-operation, if not having the experience of being one?

Macalaure I made a case against earlier. I still suspect there is something wrong with Mac but I'm not sure about it anyhow. But my guts say there's something different this time.

Then there is the spat between Celuien and Boro... I'll come to it soon...

[Eonwe]

Well, Glirdan, you may have stated your reasons earlier, but I still dont' think they are good ones. You seem a bit to eager to get rid of Folwren than you should be. First of all, Folwrens 'bad vibes' just aren't coming through to me. Either way, I think its you that comes out looking worse than Folwren.

Therefore, I think you are the best vote for me, especially becuase this will be the last time I can get on before the deadline.

++Glirdan

[Nogrod]

It's funny that Boro left himself out from his Volo-analysis of people (albeit the reasoning).

It's also funny that the adventures of his father play such a role (at least three mentionings) in his arguments. Like he would like to show himself as the innocent one being again used for his confidence of others... what could be better for a wolf?

Originally Posted by Boro #82

Well, I'm not inclined to believe Folwren's innocent. My guess is they want to set up Folwren for an easy kill today as he had attracted quite a bit of suspicion yesterday. But, based upon the craziness that happened at the end of the day yesterday, I get the feeling Folwren's innocent.

This might just be aslip of the hands on the keyboard, but why on earth would an innocent go about with that kind of contradiction? As I said earlier in regard to Glirdy, the wolves make these mistakes, not the innocents...

Originally Posted by Boro #95

I have a feeling that either Glirdan (who is the one continuing the attack today) or Thinlomien, (who started the attack) is a wolf. As I find it pretty obvious that Folwren's innocent.

Aren't you a bit too happy to cast the guilt? I mean you don't give us any reasons. That is quite un-Boromir-like, I daresay? You suspected Folwren when we were in the middle of Day1 (as I did too). Lommy pointed to reasonable causes for her being a villain and we all probably agree on that if we're honest. It would be comfortable for a wolf to trail that accusation and thus enhance a case over someone with your general authority? I wouldn't vote for Lommy, at least for now, but more likely the one who would like to make a case against her at the moment with these grounds...

Sorry Boro. I have kind of lost our mutual trust for now, but that doesn't mean I'm right right now.

PS. Eonwe: your vote kind of shouts lycantrophy for miles away!!! Maybe I should rethink all this before I wake up tomorrow...

X-ed with Di

[Macalaure]

Again, I have to make it short. I only skimmed today's posts and can't comment on what has been said about me.

What caught my eye was Boro's analysis of Volo. He says that we cannot make much out of his first two posts, which is correct, but he then immediately turns to his last post, forgetting the third. This is not the kind of fault that I am used to see of Boromir and made me wary.

Out of the third post I found most interesting what Volo said about Durelin.

#15 Durelin says something random and a random vote on THE Ka
...
#26 Glirdan sends a vote for Durelin because of the random vote for THE Ka. I agree that those randomers have no right to be here, but RL stuff might be the reason in such cases on day1...

If Volo dislikes 'randomers' so much, why didn't he say it when he commented on her post? He only states the facts then. Then he says that randomers 'don't have a right to be here', pretty strong in my mind, but already in the next half sentence he makes the effort to take the pressure back again.
Being suspicious without being really suspicious is a way in which wolves sometimes treat each other, looking good if the other is lynched without furthering the lynching.

A thin case, I know, but I don't have the time to search for better/more.

++Durelin

By the way, should I not live to see Day 3, I find Nogrod, Celuien and Folwren quite innocent - at the moment.

[Diamond18]

Bloody hell... this is the first time I've been able to get the 'Downs to work in the past... 12 hours. Not to say I've been checking every minute of the past 12 hours, but pretty much every time I checked back I got nothin'. So I'm really quite frustrated, because I haven't even been able to read over the thread. *sigh* Luckily though I can be around till the deadline so, unless it goes down again, I've still got time.

[Boromir88]

Boromir, I don't understand your suspicion of Celuien.~Folwren

I think you mean to say you don't agree. You show that you understand it quite well, it isn't all that complicated, but you just don't agree. Which is perfectly ok, I'm offering ideas and possibilities, you can either agree with them or not (obviously). I like an objective opinion though, it let's me see the whole picture better, as we can all be narrow-minded at times.

It's funny that Boro left himself out from his Volo-analysis of people (albeit the reasoning).

Believe me or not, it's up to you, but I think you have a good knowledge of how my family is, and I never do an analysis on myself, nor include myself in any of my own lists.

It's also funny that the adventures of his father play such a role (at least three mentionings) in his arguments. Like he would like to show himself as the innocent one being again used for his confidence of others... what could be better for a wolf?

Why do you find it 'funny' that I use past experiences for an argument against people? That's what we all do, that's what this whole thing over strategy is about. What is the typical way wolves usually act? Does somebody's actions remind me of a wolves action in a past experience? How do I think each singer would act like as a wolf, based upon their family history. I used the village most recently, because you can't deny that the outcome of that village changed the way I started feeling about trusting people based off of votes. If you are more inquiry, you can search through all my records, I used experiences of past villages in all of them.

This might just be aslip of the hands on the keyboard, but why on earth would an innocent go about with that kind of contradiction?

Thanks for pointing that out, I didn't notice that before. Should read 'I'm now inclined...' as I've been saying since my very first post today I think Folwren is likely innocent.

Aren't you a bit too happy to cast the guilt? I mean you don't give us any reasons.

I do give reasons, in that same post, you just missed them for some reason. They're right there for everyone to see:

Call me a softy, but I've brought into Folwren's pleads. In the chaos and upped pace of the last minutes yesterday, it's understandable that Folwren was voting to save her life (eventhough if it turned out to be unnecessary).

Which leads me to Glirdan who has continued an attack on Folwren today. Since I find Folwren innocent, it's either that Glirdan is an innocent that fell into the wolves plan. Or he actually is a wolf pushing for Folwren's lynching. From what I know of Glirdan (which has been a very short history of records) he is the agressive attack type, so it wouldn't surprise me if he's a wolf in this situation.

Then there's Thinlomien, who got the ball rolling yesterday against Folwren. I had agreed with Thinlo's points, as because as far as Day 1's go it was one of the more sensible looking arguments. But, as the Day closed yesterday I grew wary of a vote against Folwren (for rather obvious reasons that I've made more clear today).

Sorry Boro. I have kind of lost our mutual trust for now, but that doesn't mean I'm right right now.

I don't expect to simply just have trust. I have to earn it and so far, at least for you, I haven't earned it; that's completely understandable.

What caught my eye was Boro's analysis of Volo. He says that we cannot make much out of his first two posts, which is correct, but he then immediately turns to his last post, forgetting the third. This is not the kind of fault that I am used to see of Boromir and made me wary.~Mac

I can understand how you think that, as I didn't make any mention of his 3rd post. I did take it into consideration, just didn't mention it because it wasn't much help. First off it was a summary, second of all his thoughts intertwined are either simply agreeing/disagreeing, or regurgitations of his last post.

Edit: x-posted with Diamond

[Boromir88]

Bloody hell... this is the first time I've been able to get the 'Downs to work in the past... 12 hours.~Di

It appears that a lot have been having this...as there's been very little action and I've been trying too...it's still acting a bit sluggish.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Yeah It takes forever just to get to make a reply and if I try to look at the previouse pages, I loose conection completely. It makes this whole thing a bit harder. . . anyhow I am around for the next bit of time.

[Celuien]

I can finally post! Been trying for about 12 hours.

We have two votes so far - Eonwe for Glirdan and Mac for Durelin. I can't say that I find either vote recipient suspicious. My family has known their families for many generations. Durelin has seemed so far to be following in the footsteps of the innocent foremothers my family knew, so though I'm not sure that she's innocent, she has an innocent feel for me. As for Glirdy, he is the prototypical innocent Glirdy who finds a hunch and runs with it, then gets the village after him until being lynched. I continue to feel pretty certain that he is not a wolf.

Originally Posted by Diamond

It looked to me like Volo wasnt really aware that he was doomed when he posted that up. He'd posted earlier saying he was working on a post and at that point his fate was not sealed. So I suspect that post is still in the mindset of a wolf trying to fool the village into thinking its the viewpoint of an innocent.

That's a good point. It's hard for me to figure out the exact timeline. I still don't trust the post as far as I can throw it.

I'm not really sure whom I should vote for. Boromir is making me unasy, but I don't trust myself since that's largely based on our spat. Must think...