Tol-In-Gauroth XXIV: Battle of the Band[Wagon]

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Would one of the wolves please act foolish so that we can spot him/her? No? A pity...

Well, we just might have something in here, Mother people...

Originally Posted by Glirdan

I will cast a vote and I will say now that it is mostly random because I have no serious suspicions. But my vote will be for
++Durelin
Because of the random vote for Ka.

Generally contradiction points towards lycantrophy. This is not even a bad contradiction, for it has been mellowed down with the "mostly".

But the contradiction as such is not the only reason for me to think about smelling a rat here. What I mean is.

Firstly. An innocent knows exactly why s/he is giving the vote and has no reason to hide it, be it an unsecure reasoning, a hunch or random or whatever. Moreover, early on Day1 there should be nothing tense in an innocents life so no reason to mess up with things.

Secondly. Wolves tend to make more mistakes or fumbles than innocents. This is totally understandable as the situation is tricky indeed, for unlike innocents, the wolves know the status of the one they vote. So every vote in that sense must be faked in a way or another. That it always harder than plainly saying what one thinks actually.

Thirdly. Two earlier points lead to wolves tending to over-act, trying to oversecure their "looking innocent" -image in front of their wolvery. And that's just what one could see Glirdy doing here.

As he can not say, that "as a wolf I will vote for this one innocent", so he must say something of the vote that is not true but which should sound innocent. But as a wolf is always a bit nervous, thinking constantly how s/he looks and how has s/he covered the tracks, it's easy to overdo it and actually defend one's (false) vote with two points that contradict one another.

Of the innocents only one with a very confused mind could do something like that, claiming to vote mostly random but still having a reason for the vote. But a wolf might just fumble this way.

Not much of a case, I admit. But the best I can make at the hour.

I'll be back later and hope to have something better that time.

EDIT: X-ed with Lommy

[Celuien]

I really think that Glirdan is just being Glirdan. Equally, I think Durelin is being Durelin.

And I'm yet another who thinks that no one is looking particularly suspect right now.

[Meneltarmacil]

I'm not too sure about Celuien myself. From what she said yesterday, she mainly repeats what was said and then says she will be going for the middle ground. I don't really find that extremely suspicious but something doesn't sit right...

(Meneltarmacil has left the building...but will return in a few hours.)

[Thinlómien]

Okay, time for me to leave and vote.
I changed my mind about voting

++Folwren

She's over-careful. Besides the quote I provided earlier, this caught my eye too while rereading:

Originally Posted by Folwren

I'm going to quote Boromir not because I'm accusing him or anything, but to make things more conveniently looked up.

I don't really suspect her, but she seems the most suspicious this far.

Nogrod's attack on Glirdan was a bit too aggressive and not very well-based (he must know Glirdy's style and besides, IMO Glirdy's behaviour is not that suspicious anyways - he uses the word 'random' in two different meanings in his post and that causes confusion, or that is how I see the matter) for my taste, but I'm not sure what to make of it.

Diamond didn't start with cuddly in-character bantering? I'm not sure what to make of this either, but it's nice to see her starting serious discussion this early.

Eonwe and Menel feel both pretty innocent to me at this early phase. (My opinion of Eonwe might not be very objective though since I'm so glad to see him return to a less-nonsensical playing style... ) Menel's playing style is quite different from the last time I played with him (he was a wolf then). Of course, he can have learned avoiding wolvish slips from his latest game, but I'm inclined still to believe him innocent.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Something Crazy just happened, I just got a call. . So I have to go for a job inteview now !

That means I cannot give you the long and elaborate post that would revial all the Wolves, darn.

++Macalaure

For retty much just saying what Di said and nothing more.

Edit: X posted with Boro

[Boromir88]

Mac is raising my attention now. He comes in posts that he agrees with Diamond and says this has been a very 'Day-one-ish Day one' so far. What did you expect it to be like? Just seems something's off from the Mac my ancestors were used to. Maybe it's just early, but Mac is usually one of those solid innocents that is willing to help. Now, I don't get that same feeling, just seems like he's commenting about how ordinary this Day 1 has been and we won't all agree on the same strategy, so discussing one will not benefit us.

I need more time to consider some of this, I must be off.

Edit: x-posted with Thinlomien

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Mac is raising my attention now. He comes in posts that he agrees with Diamond and says this has been a very 'Day-one-ish Day one' so far. What did you expect it to be like? Just seems something's off from the Mac my ancestors were used to. Maybe it's just early, but Mac is usually one of those solid innocents that is willing to help. Now, I don't get that same feeling, just seems like he's commenting about how ordinary this Day 1 has been and we won't all agree on the same strategy, so discussing one will not benefit us.

Relax, Boro, that was only my first post. If you look up your lorebook, you will see that I rarely make sense in that one. The villages of my ancestors all had pretty spectacular Day-Ones, all ending with the death of a wolf or with the revelation of the seer, so maybe that's it. I am willing to help, but I don't know how to at the moment. The suspicions given so far don't convince me. Nogrod's case against Glirdan is not too aggressive to me, as Lommy said, but it's a little too condemning. Sometimes wolves use heavy words for little suspicion. That little bit is all I have right now...

edit: crossed with Folwren and Eonwe

[Diamond18]

Well I'm back. I'm not sure what to say. There's nothing much concrete to work off of. I of course expected something big and dramatic to transpire. Ha ha, note sarcasm.

I guess the people who are standing out the most at this point are Nogrod, Folwren, and Mac. Nogrod always stands out and appears overly aggressive, so not sure if there's anything to make of it. Folwren seems highly defensive, but as I am not at all used to her style I suppose I must take her at face value when she says it's par for the course. At least, so long as no one who does know her better should contradict this. Mac's a little more interesting, he whole heartedly agreed with me about the uneventfulness of Day 1, and I had thought previously that he was opposed to poo-pooing Day 1's. Still, I hesitate to run screaming at him with sharp implements, because I can't be sure this is really OOC for him or just reflects the particular slowness of this day. I don't know. If I had to vote right now I'd probably vote for Mac, just because he's one person I would not have predicted would agree with me strongly, yet he did just that. I don't like it, though, as this is little more than a gut feeling vote.

Well, there's 40 minutes yet and maybe a re-reading will smack me in the face with something stupendous.

Edit: x-posted with Folwren, Eonwe, Folwren, and Boro.

[Eonwe]

Well, I dunno. I'm suffering from a bad case of first-day blahs. Either that, or I'm too dang open-minded about people's posting. I really need to work on being more judgmental if I'm ever to succeed at WereWolf.

I guess I'm thinking about four options.

1) Vote at random. (I've done this before, and it hasn't been very appreciated...)
2) Not vote. (see above, lol)
3) Vote to help Folwren. (really amounts to a random vote, just a bit more ... not random)
4) Vote randomly in the list of already voted for.

So I guess I'm down to a random vote, eh? ...meh...

Well hows this, I'll randomly choose from the numbers, and then follow that plan?

By the way Diamond, we have till 1 pm today. Remember Sleepy said it will end at 1 pm today.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Folwren

Macalaure went on to say nothing new. Agreeing with Diamond and asking one of the wolves to say how much they disliked Day-Ones. Well, I've done that, and I'm not a wolf, and I don't know why that would prove anyone a wolf. I just don't get it.

I didn't say that. I said I missed anybody saying they hate Day-Ones. There's nothing wrong with that, of course, I was just missing it.
So, thank you, Folwren. Now I'm happy.

hmmm, I just re-read my first post. I fear it's quite easy to misunderstand. My bad.

Originally Posted by Boro

Mac, for the reasons I mentioned in my last post. Also, the behavior of 'discussing strategy is good, but it doesn't help us because no one will ever agree.' That just seems terribly awkward to me, saying it's good to do, but we won't agree, so it won't lead us anywhere.

Heck, today seems to be 'Let's all misunderstand Mac'-Day.
I said it's nice, not good. It's better than not talking at all. Maybe I'm wrong in this, but I have never seen any strategy put into practice, because there are always some who disagree with it and some who don't care (umm..). As soon as Day 2 dawns all Day-One tactics and strategies are usually forgotten, because we finally have things to go for.
As I said, my lore is little, maybe I'm wrong.

[Boromir88]

I have to go with my gut. And it's time for me to go...so

++Mac

[Nogrod]

Preliminary thoughts about five hours before the deadline, subject to chance as the bands get to play more.

Menelteramacil and Boromir88 have been engaging in most honest sounding discussion. Some mighty wonders are needed to make me vote for either toDay.

Rune and Folwren have participated in the same discussion with points but more in a following role. Same holds especially to Celuien. That might be an ideal position for a wolf to hide in? But without further points against any one of them I'm not going to vote any of them toDay as I see them all as valuable asssets as innocents.

From Macalaure, Diamond18 and Thinlomien I would really like to hear more...

THE Ka I really can't say anything about.

Eonwe has been more vocal and non-random as earlier generation-Eonwes. What to make of it?

Volo feels a bit awkward. The Ka had a point in her vote: too many handshakes as to make friends from the very first moments? Or just wishing well when having nothing else to say?

Glirdan and Durelin have surely acted strangely and somewhat "non-productively", but as some people have suggested, they might just be themselves...

So if Glirdan and Durelin are not the wolves (which I think likely), then the wolves play pretty well. Too bad for us.

Back to the band training and giving all this some further thought...

EDIT: X-ed with a lot...

[Celuien]

++ Volo

I feel like I just can't get a read on the posts, which makes me uncomfortable.

*off to work*

[Glirdan]

Okay, going over Folwern's posts I found things that struck me as....well, odd.

A very, very shocking beginning. Being beheaded is not a very good thing. I'm rather shocked that. . .that would have happened. . .so soon. You'd think the villains would wait a few deaths later to get gruesome.

So what, you expected a murder? Is it because you're one of them planning it and your guilty conscious is trying to get out?

And don't try to derive any strange and twisted meaning out of this first post be cause there isn't any.

And why would you go and say that? Is it because there was something strange and twisted in the post?? Hmmmm....

I'm going to quote Boromir not because I'm accusing him or anything, but to make things more conveniently looked up.

This is honestly the wierdest thing you have said yet. Why would you say that? It's fine to quote people. Look at me! I'm doing it right now!! This scentence really strikes me as suspicious. It's like you're hiding something again and your concious(sp? [Ihonestly think I'm spelling that wrong]) is fighting to break out.

Look, Lommy - I said not to try to take any twisted meaning out of my words. Didn't I say that? It was an awkward business making the first post. I couldn't tell what people would think. It was an ice breaking post and I had absolutely nothing to say.

And again, why would you say "I said not to try to take any twisted meaning out of my words." If anything, that makes you look more suspicous.

Over-defensive? Well, yes, maybe so. I've been accused of that many, many times before. But see here, being an innocent, I have no guilty conscience, therefore I don't feel guilty about arguing my way out of a tight spot (or an imaginary tight spot) because I don't have to lie about it. Also, being an innocent, I'm scared to death that someone, as you have done, will point their finger at me, take their attention off the real wolves, and kill a friend. That's why I'm attomatically defensive.

I bolded the part I really want to talk about here. The problem with that is that we don't know who the Wolves are. We don't know if we can trust you. How do we know that you're not a Wolf?

Nogrod, please, please, just this round, give me the benefit of the doubt. I am not guilty. We're drawing so near to the end that one more vote for me may be the end!

This sounds like a plea of a Wolf trying to stay alive and attack more innocents. I really don't like it. If you're as innocent as you say you are Folwren, why would you have cared about being lynched? I personally would feel like a sacrifice, a way to get closer to finding the Wolves. This really sounds like a Wolf plea to me.

Which brings me all the way back to her throwaway vote.

Hmmm, I'll be around if you need me.

[THE Ka]

Lucky guess, Morrissey...

Moz sings, "... We hate it when our friends become successful"

Anyways...

That coffin is just... ugh, no one should go out in that style, especially in nice shoes. Obviously whoever did this has no sense of style, for one, but onto the other facts.

Originally Posted by Rune

2. they could have saved their fellow wolf and maybe even make it look inoccent.

From personal past experience as playing a werewolf in my last game, there is usually one werewolf who has to take a dive for the sake of the others... Thus the 'fenris wolves'. It is also a tactic that is somewhat good at keeping the rest of the players still with without much a clue as to any connections, that is, if their fellow wolves don't blow the whole thing by being too defensive, or otherwise too friendly.

Speaking of that, it would be nice to check up on how everyone reacted to Volo being voted for.

Originally Posted by Folwren

Also, being an innocent, I'm scared to death that someone, as you have done, will point their finger at me, take their attention off the real wolves, and kill a friend. That's why I'm attomatically defensive.

Being defensive is a tricky ordeal. Either, it is a wolf who's a bit shaky at how things are going and trying to pull heart strings, or an innocent who is in a bit of a corner and doing the same. Hmmm, I would keep an eye on this.

Originally Posted by Folwren

To save my own skin.

I understand RL issues. Though, as an innocent, I wouldn't say that if I was caught in a corner. It doesn't seem very logical for a wolf to say that either, really. Sounds like a flustered reply, but a very suspicious one at that.


I'm beginning to see that maybe our wolves are not working together so well, but that depends on whether all of this flustering is not a cover up for it. Then again, wolves have the advantage at knowing whom they are in good arms with against others and how (hopefully) to act, while innocents are for themselves unless proven otherwise, which is rare. Either our wolves were scrambling yesterday, and had somewhat of a disarray, or all of this flustering is a neat diversion for confusion.

Whatever comes, I think I will have to go back and take more of a look at all of this when I can. Folwren's actions do not seem the best making for a wolf, or innocent, but mostly that of a wolf. Others in question, do not seem that easy to get by.

[Volo]

After a lot of paperwork Volo came back to the hall where all the action was happening. He noticed two things that seemed wrong or at least he wasn't used to them: First he was described "'Grandfather' of European heavy metal" I wish!, this Sleepy guy must have mixed up the termes "heavy metal" with "power metal", Volo could easily be the grandson of heavy metal... The second wasn't even funny, people were going against him just because he was being friendly... "I understand that you are worried, but I find really little reason in voting somebody who just wanted to have a little chat..."

Volo took his guitar out and started playing something cheerful from his head to warm people up. He soon realized that this was useless and took out a piece of paper instead.

#5 Folwren just checking in.
#6 Menel telling us to think of something not completely random. Advising to think of a plan. This makes sence, but I don't feel like we should make a plan too openly, what does a plan even mean here?
#7 Boro said something like that too about #6
#8 Volo messing around
#9 Eonwe talking something random
#10 Volo told Eonwe not to be random, Boro that he speaks true and something without real meaning to Menel.
#11 Folwren speaks true about post #7, we have to discuss something, but not make too much of a "plan"...
#12 Menel agreeing with Folwren. At this I feel like there has been a misunderstanding, at least I didn't understand Boro's post like asking for complete silence... I feel that Folwren twisted Boro's words.
#13 Glirdan playing stupid.
#14 Celuien against randomness.
#15 Durelin says something random and a random vote on THE Ka
#16 Menel telling the seer to check the talkative people, makes sence, talkative wolves are dangerous, or so I have read. Also tells about the wolves that try to blend in and about the ones that aren't talkative. Silent wolves are rather dull, but I doubt that they can do much in the end... But with this post I agree.
#17 Boro talks about the importance of trust. Yes, I think it is needed, but it can also be misleading.
#18 Rune just telling that he is
#19 THE Ka talking nonsence, a lot of nonsence can be a good cover for a wolf...
#20 Nogrod telling that silence isn't good (I agree). Tells us to observe the people for changing their mind to stay with the mass. Agrees with Menel about seer checking the talkative.
#21 Celuien talks about the importance of strategy, but tells not to say everything. I agree, but this is post already "staying with the mass" as I see it...
#22 Rune cleared this at last, I mean the talk about Boro saying to be silent.
#23 Folwren has made good points. Dislikes random votes, but says that wolves wouldn't do that. I think I'll trust her for now.
#24 Celuien repeats the same thing about talking about strategy, but not too openly...
#25 Eonwe tells that people don't sometimes have the guts for suspicions. Also tells that the silent/loud wolf theory isn't to be trusted... I think that the silent wolf isn't so dangerous. I would trust more a change in playing style as the mark of the wolf.
#26 Glirdan sends a vote for Durelin because of the random vote for THE Ka. I agree that those randomers have no right to be here, but RL stuff might be the reason in such cases on day1...
#27 Rune goes off and says about getting interested about post 26.
#28 Boro talks a lot. Agrees with post #22. Tells about plans being bad and says that an agressive attack will more surely get us rid of the wolves. Agrees with #25, I personally don't. Doesn't like randomness, somewhat suspects Durelin and Glirdan. Trusts Menel, Eonwe, Folwren and Rune. I tend to agree on those four.
#26 THE Ka changes her vote for Volo, without reason I can understand, goes away.
#27 Dia tells us what we have been saying, the ordinary day1 talk without much reason. Doesn't suspect Durelin and Glirdan badly. Waits.
#28 Mac agrees with Dia.
#29 Lommy somewhat suspects Folwren for being overdefencive, but won't wote her because she contributes, good reason for day one. Doesn't suspect Durelin and Glirdan because they are like that, she knows better than I about that, haven't met either of them earlier in a trap like this.
#30 Nogrod smells a rat in Glirdans vote. Tells that wolves usually make more mistakes than innocents. I think that this is true, but Nogrod himself didn't make many mistakes too easily spotted in the last battle for justice.
#31 Celuien tells that Glirdan and Durelin are just being themselves.
#32 Menel suspects Celuien and I tend to agree, she has been talking rather strangly. Leaves for few hours.
#33 Lommy votes Folwren because of overdefencive behavior. Says that Nogrod was too agressive with his accusation for Glirdan. Jokes about Dia. Somewhat trusts Eonwe and Menel.
#34 Boro says about a change in Mac's behavior. Mac has only one post so I won't say much about this...
#35 Rune votes Mac and agrees with Dia.
#36 Nogrod somewhat trusts Menel and Boro, both have made good ponts. The same seems to go for Rune, Folwren and Celuien. Wants to hear more from Mac, Dia and Lommy. Suspects Volo for being too nice. Can't say anything about THE Ka. Notices a change in Eonwes behavior. Glirdan and Durelin seem strange but themselves.
#37 Celuien votes Volo and leaves.
#38 Volo says what people have said and goes off somewhere (to koiralenkki).

I might not be able to vote, hope that I can. (Don't change the day until I wote, I might be just a bit late.)

[Eonwe]

Originally Posted by Lommy

(My opinion of Eonwe might not be very objective though since I'm so glad to see him return to a less-nonsensical playing style...

Don't make me change back to my Donkey Avatar, Lommy!

Just got on this morning, so I'll start back and read everything and try and vote...

[Meneltarmacil]

Well, I've looked over Folwren's posts so far, prompted by suspicions people had mentioned.

Folwren does seem unusually defensive in her early posts, and flip-flopped somewhat on the issue of discussing strategy. It's quite likely she's a wolf trying to cover her tracks.

My vote will probably be either for Folwren or Celuien toDay, and I'm inclined to suspect Folwren more. I'll be back around 11:30 to vote. Don't eat all my jelly doughnuts, please.

[Boromir88]

My vote will have to come a little earlier than I anticipated, as this day has been moved back and hour...but no harm done ). Here's what we have so far.

Menel seems fine. It's Day 1, there's no sense in concocting some sort of twisted wierd possibility of a werewolf plot on Day 1 when we have no other information.

Same goes for Nogrod. It's possible one of these two 'talkers' is a wolf, but I don't see a reason to think them wolves as of yet.

I was expecting more of Rune today, as he said he would, but didn't see it. I fully understand though, that unexpected things come up, we all get busy dealing with our fan-mail and what not...I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt today.

I like Ka's reasoning against Volo. It speaks towards her innocence. As far as it being Day 1, it's really one of the most sensible arguments against someone I have seen.

Thinlomien has pointed out some good things about Folwren. Stuff that I didn't realize before. So, like Ka, speaks towards her innocence, for today.

Eonwe brings up a good point about 'evidence.' What evidence is there, besides a Seer dream and our own opinions that often times can be narrow-minded.

Mathematically speaking, it's likely that one of the people listed above is a wolf. However, as far as today is concerned, there's no reason to waste my vote on the people I don't have a reason to think to suspect. But, I do reserve the right to change thpse opinions in the future.

Durelin, Celuien, Diamond and Volo I'm unsure about.

It's always hard to get a read off of Diamond, which makes her dangerous as a wolf. Right now I find people to be more suspicious so, I most likely won't vote for Diamond today.

I'm going to keep an eye on Volo. I'm wary of voting for him today, because from what I remember is he was a rather shady and suspicious player on Day 1 in past villages, but he turned out to be one of the greatest assets the village had.

For Durelin, I'm not going to waste my vote on someone because they randomly voted on Day 1 (ehem Glirdan) . I have no reason to feel that she's innocent like the people at the beginning of my spiel.

Same thing goes for Celuien. I'll be watching her in the days to come, but right now am more worried about other singers.

Which leaves, Glirdan, Mac, and Folwren.

Perhaps, I spoke a little too hasty about Folwren, before. I agree with what Thinlomien has pointed out (and I had missed previously), Folwren seems a little too protective.

Mac, for the reasons I mentioned in my last post. Also, the behavior of 'discussing strategy is good, but it doesn't help us because no one will ever agree.' That just seems terribly awkward to me, saying it's good to do, but we won't agree, so it won't lead us anywhere.

I don't have good records on Glirdan's ancestors, as my family has had very little experience with him. Maybe he's just being Glirdan, but I'm unaware of that information. And still find his contradiction over 'random voting' to be suspicious.

One of these three will most likely get my vote which will be coming soon.

Edit: X-posted with a few people.

[Folwren]

Sorry, no time. Pop sent a fax RIGHT at voting time.

++Volo

To save my own skin.

[Thinlómien]

Celuien analysis

Day 1
#14 Just checks in. Says she's against random votes too. §§ Pretty much all reasonable people are.
#21 Says that avoiding strategic discussion hurts the village more than the wolves and all the village has to go on is strategy and open debate. Says we need to have to win as a village. Says that village having a tactic or not having one is same in that sense that the wolves can use both against us. §§ Speaks sense. I agree with her. Does not seem wolvish.
#24 States the common opinion(/misunderstanding?): "I'd thought Menel suggested laying out how to find wolves, and Boro had said that doing that would let the wolves use that info against us." Says the same as I comment below: discussion surely benefits the village more than the wolves, unless it goes to extreme. Says she does not know a red flag before she sees it. §§ Again, she speaks sense and thinks the same way as I do.
#34 Agrees with me that Durelin and Glirdan are just being themselves and says she's a part of the majority that don't have any specail suspects. §§ She seems to think exactly along the same lines as I do.
#40 Votes Volo. Says she can't get a read on the posts and it makes her uncomfortable. §§ She means Volo's posts? They were somewhat difficult to grasp at. What is notable here, is that she cast the second vote for Volo. Second vote is often the important one. Though there was much suspicion of other people (Foley, Glirdy) around, I'm not sure if a fellow wolf would risk this.

Boromir analysis

Day 1
#7 Presents his (in)famous comment on discussing tactics: says that if the village speaks of the tactics openly it is easier to hide for the wolves as they know how we expect them to act. Agrees that random-votes are bad. §§ I don't get his point; the discussion surely benefits the village more than the wolves, unless it goes to extreme, eg. "ten rules how to spot a wolf". And what do you on Day1 if not discuss tactics? In-character bantering? On random votes, see what I said about Celuien's first post.
#17 Says: " . . there must be some sort of unity amongst us . . . but our best chance of winning comes down trust in individuals (and that's where the unity comes in). Do I want to trust you? Do you want to trust me? As the days go on we will all be able to establish our own cases against who we think are the wolves and the people we feel safe about." Explains his earlier words as: ". . . I don't think it's a good idea to talk about what we will be looking for the wolves to do, because that makes it far too easier for wolves to hide in and look innocent. If I spot something that looks wolvish, I go right after and jump on it. I don't like to discuss my own personal strategy as far as what I'm looking for the wolves to do, because that makes it easier for the wolves to get on my 'innocent' side, as they will know my mind and what I'm looking for." Half jokingly points out Glirdan's too dramatic reaction on Sleepy's death. §§ I'm not sure if I agree with his earlier theory or if it makes sense, but his explanation of his opinions makes sense. However, he seems to be taking back his words a bit. He might be only clearing his words, but he might also be adding bits in to sound more reasonable.
#28 Compares ww to poker. (= You don't want the opponent to know your cards.) Agrees with Folwren about Durelin. Foley said: "Why the crazy and random vote the THE Ka, Durelin? I really dislike random votes like that, but it makes me think that. . . that a wolf wouldn't do it. I don't know why I think it." Boromir says he dislikes random voting, but does not understand why do people always think that the first random voter of the day is a wolf. Is suspicious of Glirdan because he votes Durelin because of randomness and in the next sentence states his own vote as quite random. Says that Menel, Eonwe, Folwren and Rune all seem sensible so far. §§ Poker analogy makes sense, but I see a slight contradiction in the Foley-Durelin case. Flip-flopping perhaps? First he says he agrees with Folwren (who was suspecting Durelin) and then he questions the logic of accusing the first random voter. Thus, he questions his own logic (if I understood him right) and ain any case he questions the logic of the person he agreed with in the previous sentence.
#37 Suspects Mac because he's acting un-macalaureishly. (Says he does not get the same solid, innocent feeling of Mac as he usually does.) §§ As pointed out by some people before, I find this quite hasty. Mac had just posted one post that implied (at least to me) that he's to be back.
#47 Quick summary on people. Menel, Nogrod = seem innocent, contribute, Rune = gives him the benefit of doubt, says he would expect more posting from him, Ka = agrees with her reasoning, says she's sensible, Thinlomien = good points about Foley, seems innocent for now, Eonwe = good points about evidence. At this phase, adds that mathematically it's very possible, that one of the people listed above is wolf. Summary continues: Diamond = difficult to read and thus dangerous, Volo = shady, could be a great asset, Durelin, Celuien = more worried of other people than them, Folwren = a bit too protective, Mac = suspects for previously mentioned reasons and because of "the behavior of 'discussing strategy is good, but it doesn't help us because no one will ever agree.'", Glirdan = suspicious. §§ I've never understood the point of saying who one does not suspect and then counting the mathematical possibility of a wolf on the list. Surely the list is tried to make thus that it contains no wolves so if the analyser is even a bit clever, the lsit should have less wolves than mathematically would seem probable. (I'm not sure if I'm making sense at all, but my main point is that mathematics are just confusing things in this kind of place.) Besides, his maths is little shady. He gives the first half six persons and one wolf, the sencond seven persons and two wolves, from six and seven it's almost as possible that the gorup of six has two wolves as that it's the group of seven that have two wolves, if one thinks only mathematically. I kind of missed Mac's "the behavior of 'discussing strategy is good, but it doesn't help us because no one will ever agree.'".
#54 Leaves and votes Mac with gut.

Day 1 conclusions
Celuien - If A is innocent and does thing x and B does thing x too, can we assume B's innocence? Not maybe, though it seems probable. Can we by that assume that B's guilty? No way. I'm leaning to Celuien's innocence and seriously consider quitting analysing her since she seems to think exactly the same way as I do. Either she's imitating an innocent logic very well or she's really innocent.
Boromir - Why, o why, did I ever promise myself to analyse him? He speaks so much that it will take a year. He's quite, though not overtly, suspicious and my main suspect. (Of course, my opinion might change, this was only Day1 analysis.)

I'm off to have a pause and then to continue maybe...

EDIT: I seem to be back to my old habit of flooding...