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Old 09-19-2006, 11:19 AM   #1
Nogrod
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Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.Nogrod is wading through the Dead Marshes.
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Nogrod stood up and wandered to the desk once again.

"Okay, I've looked at Lommy here and would like to point out a few things, some of them are noted here earlier, some I think are not.

Moderately wolvish things:
- She has managed to vote only the innocents and basically also suspected only innocents (Kath, naturally is a questionmark still). She had a fleeting suspicion of Valesse when she was the talk of the town, but that never came to anything like making a case or voting. So careful not to do any damage and more than happy to try cases over innocents? I mean, mostly they are only suggestions or hints to cases and there are lots of them, but as Boro remarked, there very rarely is anything more substantial in them. A wolf might like to try whether one of them would gather momentum with the help of others.
- Voices suspicion on others who suspect others but then does it herself quite frequently. Her reaction to Kath's analysis at the early stages was a telling one. Still she is constantly assuring others about her own innocense and calls others fellow-victims and whatever. A bit too eager to state these. And the toast for Di...

More suspicious things:
- She took the he-factor up early enough on Day5, but was happy to still vote for Naria rather than Sleepy. Only on Day6 did she use it as some kind of a basis for a vote. But then earlier toDay she was quite ready to go after Kath
Quote:
at the moment she seems most probably to be the wolf in the bunch
as many had voiced suspicions of Kath yesterDay. And then, like a lightning from a clear sky she decides to take the he-factor and runs rampant on myself. One might be able to see here that she realised the worth of that argument only toDay. If she is the wolf, that point (thence a mistake by Glirdy) would be worth the whole game to her. It would be much better for her not to be the other one from whom we choose but to actually be safe.
- Also her almost rude attack on Gil the morning the wolf had been left a loner was somewhat non-Lommyisque. A frightened wolf ready to go for anything? There wasn't the intensity of toDay, but still both of these attacks do not look like they were made by an innocent Lommy.

To these I would like to add my earlier points on #359.

I don't know, but if I can't get anything better out, I'll be voting Lommy and hopefully helping the village to get rid of the monster.

I mean good heavens! Why would Boro put us three together (myself in the middle!) into a list, away from all the other text, if our status was not the same? If Lommy manages to twist the most probable facts of the list and manages to succeed, I'll surely bow to her, but not to us."

Then he filled his pint and got back to the armchair.

"I need some rest now. I'll be back."

Last edited by Nogrod; 09-19-2006 at 11:30 AM. Reason: correcting a quote.
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Old 09-19-2006, 01:00 PM   #2
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"My findings with Kath are much thinner. Her first actions are somewhat eyebrow-raising, but RL-issues seem to loom behind at least some of them. I mean Days with just a vote or a post to say something and then slipping in to vote another time. Her famous and argued "Summary" (in #182) made me suspect her then, but she has defended it reasonably after that.

Surely it is notable that she has consistently drawn her own line in voting, voting mainly for those who will not be killed or are not widely suspected. Her vote of Boro on Day3 surely is interesting. A wolf might give it a go.

Intrestingly this involves consistently voting for Lommy every other Day. I hope your reason toDay is not that you voted for her yesterDay and now it should be someone else? The only ones to break the cycle were Boro (sic!) and the Naria-Wagon.

I suspected her a lot yesterDay evening. Her misleading references that Maca managed to spot, and her total turnaround on the most suspicious person from Lommy to Sleepy looked very bad indeed. Now as I know what this man-factor is, I can't blame her on that anymore. Well, opportunism, surely that is possible. As I said of Lommy: for a she-wolf that kind of mistake would be a gift, a real gift!

What I'm afraid is that one's happiness of being able to get oneself out of reach of the votes toDay will endanger the whole village - however innocent one is.

So even if I tend to trust the list still, I will take a look at Volo too.

But Lommy I'm most suspicious now. No wolf jumping on her vote on me as soon as possible is kind of a telling tale. If we all three are innocents, there is no need for anyone of us to hurry with the vote. Or is the wolf so scared of the Night to come - and a possible third ranger-save - that s/he wishes to stay quiet and not look too obviously wolvish at this time of the Day to have something to defend from toMorrow?

Nogrod leaned back on his chair, this time without his pipe. He was whistling an old Southron melody he had learned as a kid. He never had learned the words, but he was sure they were something about war and sorrow. It was a beautiful tune, but sad.
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Old 09-19-2006, 01:24 PM   #3
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"So Nogrod, you really want to put us against "the monster"? She sure seems more wolfish than you, but you are more subtle. I'll take example from an ancient ballad I heared just now somewhere in the deep left side of my head, it was something about death, wishing and a valley... I also noted that Lommy's ancestor was noted in the story, as a really unsuccessful wolf. The killer was as wolf as Lommy's ancestor, this tought me, that Nogrod shouldn't be as trusted as he is."

Volo felt really dizzy.

"I feel I'll lie down. I'll vote for either Lommy or Nogrod in an hour or two, if all's well enough..."
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Old 09-19-2006, 01:57 PM   #4
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"Take a break Volo. I was just going through my memory-archives on you... At least for now I still trust you more than Lommy. And even more I trust the list of the Seer, before anyone gives me a reason to doubt it with a better explanation. I think Lommy in the end didn't give us one, partly because he didn't have time to answer my counter questions - and mainly as her case against it seemed already built up on ignoring a lot of reasonable points made earlier by many...

And yes, the lorebooks tell of wonderful things, but that's the basic essence of the lore; to have all possible versions of different actions remembered to us who come later. That is important as it widens your scope of imagination and makes you able to see different scenarios. But in the end you need to consider the facts known to you and the beliefs you can argue for - and then see the feeling you have - of the present situation. We are not in lore. We are only becoming lore.

So think about it yourself. You see now more possibilities. How would they fit here? What would confirm things and what would not? What can you actually believe here, in this moment? What have you seen and felt?"

Nogrod sat back and tried to concentrate, but did not manage it. His thoughts were running rampant around. So slowly he rose up and went to have an ale more, slowly sipping it as he came back to his chair.

"I'll be ready in a moment, I hope... Feel free to break my peace if you have something in mind", with that Nogrod took a long draught and fell backwards to his chair, closing his eyes as he went.
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Old 09-19-2006, 02:10 PM   #5
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"By the way, what are your thoughts Kath? I think this is important enough to you too to make an input?" With that Nogrod raised up a little bit to see Kath sitting on her chair at the cornertable.

"I would really like to hear your thoughts before making my vote. For a wolf not suspected yet, this surely is the best situation to hold one's tongue and stay quiet, not giving the others anything to vote for. But if you're innocent, please let us know your thoughts. Otherwise it's hard to see you are after our common good..."

Nogrod fell down again.
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Old 09-19-2006, 02:22 PM   #6
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"I am after the common good Nogrod," Kath replied with a sigh, burying her head in her hands, "but I just don't seem to be of much help toDay. I've been trying to do these analyses for ages but I just can't seem to get anywhere with them.

The way I see it a few things could be going on here. If you are a wolf then you're taking full advantage of this fight with Lommy to take her words and twist them, and if she's a wolf then she's doing the same thing. However, if Volo is the wolf then he is being very smart and staying right out of it and will just vote along with whomever he decides will benefit him most.

Now, one of these scenarios must be the case but which I have no idea. I suspected Lommy a lot early on, Volo some but Nogrod not at all. But I am still inclined to believe that the wolf is male. I'm not sure that it is Nogrod because my ancestors have seen his ancestors try to get out of danger before and there is a very different style this time, though that could be due to more knowledge and less pressure.

Quite honestly I am most inclined to vote Volo. I found some of his earlier behaviour suspicious and between the two males he is the one I find more suspicious.

Nogrod, those are my thoughts. They aren't much and I apologise for that, but that's all I've got."
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Old 09-19-2006, 03:05 PM   #7
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"I might just as well save myself, sorry Nogrod, you were a great friend, teacher and talker, not to forget about boozer. Just is happens to be like that, I decided to believe Glirdys mistake and if you're a wolf, this is the last chance to win. If you're not the wolf, I'm sorry, but I had to decide and now I decided that I have more chances this way. Sad to kill a friend, though I rather have a killer free than a innocent person dead, but this is a nightmare I'll be glad to be out of.

++Nogrod, I wish you luck in your afterlife, I shall follow!"
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