Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXIII: Journey to Hy Brazil

[The Saucepan Man]

Hmm, I rather glad that I lost that argument with Mister Of the Rohirrim over the Cabin now.

What a strange choice of kill the Wolves made! What with Eomer attracting the second highest number of votes yesterday n'all. Then again, most of them were (seemingly) grudge votes.

A few possible reasons for his untimely death. Possibly one of those who held a grudge against him. Possibly they thought him a Gifted (and so what he said yesterday will bear examination). Possibly the Wolves just felt that they couldn't take the risk of leaving an innocent Eomer running about on board.

And now I am afraid that I shall have to get rather angry with you all, or at least those of you who voted for Nilp and Eomer. Bad Day 1 strategy, effectively reducing the voting to a two horse race. And, surprise surprise, they both turn out to be innocent. And one of them a Gifted too. And a valuable one at that. Made it nice n'easy for the Wolves, I'm sure. Tsk! Tsk!

Pure madness, it was! Grudge votes against Eomer (so it would seem) and senseless votes against Nilp, just because he was being Nilp. Of course he had to vote for himself in his situation. That's what he always does, and so doing anything else would have attracted undue attention from the Wolves. Didn't mean others had to go and follow suit. Other than his self-vote, there was nothing suspicious about him and, for Nilp, a self-vote doesn't qualify as a suspicious action. Good grief, folks! You can't all be Wolves, those of you who voted for the two of them. Yet anyone would think you wanted the Wolves to win! Arrgh!

OK, rant over. Here's yesterday's voting:

1. Morm-->Glirdan (Glirdan-1)
2. Lhuna-->Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-1)
3. Rune-->Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-2)
4. Glirdan-->Kath (Glirdan-1, Eomer-2, Kath-1)
5. Nilp-->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-2, Kath-1, Nilp-1)
6. Engels-->Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-3, Kath-1, Nilp-1)
7. Durelin-->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-3, Kath-1, Nilp-2)
8. Diamond-->Eomer (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-2)
9. Anguirel-->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-3)
10. Lalaith-->Form (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-3, Form-1)
11. Caranlondien-->Jenny (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-3, Form-1, Jenny-1)
12. Firefoot-->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-4, Form-1, Jenny-1)
13. SpM-->Holby (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-4, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-1)
14. Holby-->Nilp (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-1)
15. JennyHallu-->Holbytlass (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2)
16. Formendacil-->Lalaith (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2, Lalaith-1)
17. Findeasea-->Lalaith (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2, Lalaith-2)
18. Gurthang-->Diamond (Glirdan-1, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Form-1, Jenny-1, Holby-2, Lalaith-2, Diamond-1)
19. Eomer-->Glirdan (Glirdan-2, Eomer-4, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Formendacil-1, JennyHallu-1, Holbytlass-2, Lalaith-2, Diamond-1)
20. Taliesin-->Eomer (Glirdan-2, Eomer-5, Kath-1, Nilp-5, Formendacil-1, JennyHallu-1, Holbytlass-2, Lalaith-2, Diamond-1)

No vote: Kath

Some suspicious looking votes there. I don't like any of the votes for Nilp (excepting his own and, possibly, that of Anguirel who appeared to have been trying to save Eomer). I am particularly wary of those cast by Firefoot and Holbytlass, both of whom effectively escalated it into a choice between Eomer and Nilp, two innocents. And Firefoot's reasoning - because we have to find out about Nilp - was poor. As I have said, he was just being Nilp. You should have let him be and see how he behaved on subsequent Days. And I still suspect Holby on the basis of my reasoning from yesterday.

And while Durelin does not look as suspicious as those two for her vote for Nilp, I am wary of the fact that she was so quick to arrive today and claim that she thought her vote a throwaway vote.

Of course, they can't all be Wolves. I doubt that more than one, or two at most, voted for Nilp yesterDay.

As for the Eomer voters, well I will be keeping an eye on all of them. Although, again, I doubt that more than one, or two at most, voted for him.

There is probably a Wolf, possibly two, in the later "throwaway" votes, after the voting had effectively become the two-horse race between Eomer and Nilp.

One further thought. While I agree with the sentiments expressed by Jenny in the closing stages of yesterday, in her frustration at all the votes for Eomer and Nilp, she does seem to have rather gone overboard with it. A Wolf would have known them both to be innocent and it was possibly a good opportunity to try to gain some credit by making it look like she was trying to save them. Perhaps that is part of the explanation as to why Eomer was killed. It doesn't place her at the top of my suspect list, but it's a thought.

EDIT: Good grief! Crossed with all the posts from Glirdan's at #106!

[mormegil]

Oh, as per our vocal agreement yesterday I claim the slaves as my own!

[Anguirel]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Oh, as per our vocal agreement yesterday I claim the slaves as my own!

Nonsense. They are the property of a deceased subject of the King of Scots. As His Grace's representative on board, I am now the receiver of his slain vassal's property. The Law of Scotland is on my side, sir.

I do not wish to be sucked into a duel with you, master nitpicker, but it seems to me you are seeing a chain of events that fit in your eyes because they pertain to you. I was considering your case yesterday on what I confessed was the sketchiest of grounds, and I am now prepared to dismiss my thoughts as pretty balderdashworthy in light of later information.

And I am somewhat insulted by your implication that I would be so clumsy a wolf as to intervene, guns blazing, because a throwaway vote in wolf-Glirdan's direction...

Now, to the slain Scot's words of yesterday. (And his slaves. Mine, all mine.)

[Firefoot]

Okay, I'm back and not tired... going to try and go through everyone here.

Durelin - Banter on Day 1, vote for Nilp on "ninja business", later calls vote "throw away vote." There's really nothing on Durelin. Her vote for Nilp could be counted as innocent or wolvish. I'd like to see more from her. Borderline.

Caran - Wants to lynch the goose, vote for Jenny because she can be a cunning wolf, speculation on the killing of Eomer, trusts Jenny and SpM, suspicious of Gurthang and Glirdan, unconvinced by Morm, response to Glirdan. Caran seems innocent. She says all the "right" things and seems sensible enough. I'm interested that she votes Jenny, then comes back and says she trusts her. Leaning innocent.

Holbytlass - General Day 1 comments, rather vague commentary, points out some people she thinks may be bluffing, vote for Nilp to keep Eomer alive even though she'd rather vote for Durelin (not wanting to add another candidate to list), attack on Jenny. I am disinclined to suspect her overmuch for her vote, and I'm not sure why you all are suspecting her but not Ang; her vote didn't seem terribly different from his as far as I am concerned, with the exception of her actually wanting to vote Durelin, but I understand her logic. Her rather vague analysis on Day 1 might be called a wolf not really being helpful, but that seems like a normal sort of Holby thing. Leaning innocent.

Findëasëa - response to Eomer's point about people acting normally, comments about lovers, slightly suspicious of Glirdan, Holby seeming innocent, Nilp and Eomer both probably innocent, Lalaith fitting her pattern for wolf, vote Lalaith, thoughts why wolves killed Eomer, suspicious of Jenny, analysis post of select people. I've never played with her before, but she seems to be quite sensible and helpful. Her posts generally aren't long, but they're very explicit and say a lot. She could be a clever wolf, uncontroversially pointing out her suspicions and likely innocents, but right now I think she's probably innocent.

Lhuna - Firefoot and Gurthand lovers, wolves: Fin, Taliesin, tgwbs, vote Eomer. Pretty standard Lhuna... probably innocent.

The rest are coming... I promise.

[Findëasëa]

Rune- Votes early for Eomer. Thinks Eomer was killed to create confusion and calls attention towards Nilp’s death. Makes comments about how he is not sure, and confused. Gives helpful suggestions. He defends Jenny’s actions. He makes comments about the Morm and Anguirel situation. He makes a few opinions about people known, but these seem to be mostly attributed to gut feelings. Rune seems suspicious to me because much of the opinions in his post are direct responses or reflections of other people’s ideas. This could be a way for a wolf to avoid blame and to create confusion. Also the fact many of his opinions are based on ‘gut feelings’ seems strange.

Formendacil – Says that he is tempted to vote for himself. Jokes about how this will probably get him killed. He votes for Lalaith. He defends his choice to Jenny. He thinks confusion was aim of Eomer’s death, but also that one of the people who voted Eomer is a wolf. Later he defends his vote further, commenting that he was not aware of the tie when he voted. For some reason I find his comment about not knowing that the votes were tied a little strange. Although not beyond reason, especially since he was on a computer at the library, it just seemed very defensive.

That is all that I have time to do toDay. I think that the rest of the people who I did not have time to write about have all been receiving attention as it is. Since I will probably sleep through the deadline, I will vote.

++Lalaith

For the reasons that I listed in post #162. She is most suspicious to me.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Kath

but I understand her logic.

Who said wolves can't be logical?

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by TGWBS

Eomer = dead. Cast suspicion on voters. Should look at those who voted neither Nilp nor Eomer - the wolves want us to focus on these.

As far as the Eomer voters are concerned, I largely agree with this (while remaining wary of Diamond). It may be worth noting, however, that you have an interest in putting forward such a theory, being an Eomer voter yourself. I am still pretty sure that there is a Wolf among the Nilp voters. The remaining two or three Wolves will be found, I am sure, among those who voted for neither.

It may be helpful to divide the remaining passengers along these lines:

Eomer voters: Lhuna, Rune, TGWBS, Diamond and Taliesin.

Nilp voters: Durelin, Anguirel, Firefoot and Holby.

The rest: mormegil, Glirdan, Lalaith, Caran, SpM, Jenny, Formendacil, Findesea, Gurthang, Kath (who did not vote).

Of the Nilp voters, I believe that either Holby or Firefoot is a Wolf. I remain more inclined towards Holby.

To me, the most suspicious votes among “the rest” category are those which might qualify as safe, throwaway votes or even Wolf on Wolf votes, namely those of Caran (for Jenny), Formendacil (for Lalaith) and Gurthang (for Diamond). Of the three, Gurthang and (less so) Formy look the most suspicious on the basis of other factors. I also remain wary of mormegil for, if anyone can get away with the aggressive, “in yer face” Wolf approach, ‘tis him.

Originally Posted by Kath

Jenny's post 'I TOLD YOU SO' makes me a little suspicious of her. If she was so certain there are only two options. She is either the Seer or a wolf. If she was the Seer I don't believe she would make that so obvious, so I'm leaning towards her guilt.

You know, I too am rather concerned about Jenny. As I mentioned earlier, and as others have commented since, her (seemingly rather frantic) attempt to save both Nilp and Eomer, followed by the deaths of both and thereby the proof of their innocence, may well have been calculated to make her look good.

I am also conscious of the fact that she selected, as her alternative candidate, Holby - the person that I had voted for. So, if Jenny is a Wolf, Holby is (contrary to my Holby theory) most likely innocent. I wonder whether, had she succeeded in getting an innocent Holby lynched rather than Eomer or Nilp, she would have attempted to transfer the blame to me. Or perhaps she was trying to gain my trust. Of course, that only helps me (and perhaps the Seer), but it factors into my thinking.

But there is one more thing about Jenny, although I have been hesitant to mention it. Earlier today, when attempting to explain her behaviour at the end of yesterday, she said:

Originally Posted by JennyHallu

Holby, my apologies for my attempted bandwagon against you. I just needed to try and save Nilp, and thought Eomer likely also innocent: and I picked you because I found your logic concerning myself suspect. It didn't work, anyway.

This seemed particularly defensive to me at the time. But of greater note, possbly, is her interesting choice of words with regard to her attempt to save Nilp. She says that she needed to try and save Nilp. That seems to me to be a rather heavy Hunter hint, which is why I was reluctant to draw attention to it before. But, if Jenny is the Hunter, why did she not simply vote for Eomer (an unknown quantity to her) to save the person she knew to be the Ranger? It’s possible she thought Eomer to be the Seer but I can see little in his posts to suggest that he might have been. So, if Jenny is not the Hunter, why is she dropping such a heavy Hunter hint here? It troubles me greatly.

Sorry, Jenny, if you are the Hunter and I have blown your cover. But I figured that, if there is anything in it, the Wolves will have picked up on it anyway.

Edit: Cross-posted with Jenny.