WWJ IX: Psychotic Penguins: The Crossing of Helcaraxë

[Boromir88]

Some interesting discussion we've had since my last visit.

Haha! Yes but think of the double-bluff implication on that one will you! And don't complain to me if the triple-bluff gets to you. You signed up for this were-penguine expose!~Eonwe

The only person I would expect to double-bluff is phantom...and actually I wouldn't put it past Anguirel either. Now that I say that I'm probably going to get double-bluffed out of my mind by everyone I least expected to.

Ok, so we have three little devil penguins in the village, and 14 villagers, which means approximately 1 wp to 5 innocent. So here goes my process of elimination:

Valier
Diamond18
Naria
Macalaure
Lalaith
Firefoot
Jenny
Roa
phantom
spawn
Kitanna
Encaitare
Anguirel
Eonwe

Like I said before I doubt wp's would be this eccentric and wild in the beginning. So for now there's no reason to suspect Valier.

I wonder if Diamond was making fun of me when in a past village my great grandfather first voted for Saucepan Man, but SpM wasn't even a member of the village. Oh boy that was fun. Anyway, like Valier seems to eccentric to be a wp. But this I do find odd:

A possible scenario would be for the Seer to dream of the Cobbler, and if/when they reveal, they can just tell us to ignore whatever that person says. But as this scenario requires the Seer revealing (and consequently dying) I still think that lynching the cobbler (or laughing when the penguins kill him/her at night) would do us just fine.

And exactly why would we want the Seer to do that? If someone comes out and says...don't pay attention to this person, then the penguins are going to find the Seer rather easily.

Also, and I'm going to need a mod ruling on this one, if I remember correctly since the Cobbler is an ordinary villager, if the Seer dreams of the cobbler all the seer is told is that person is innocent. Since the cobbler is a villager...just a twisted villager.

Naria I don't know at this point. Naria seems to be one of those silent contributors. Doesn't have to post a lot (unlike me) to have solid input and contribution to the village. I will be expecting to see more substance instead of just, hi I'm tired bye, but in this early going there's no reason to cry penguin.

Macalaure is just catching onto the game, which means he's one of the most innocent looking ones to me so far. His lack of understanding and his objection to phantom's proposal speaks towards his innocence. There's no reason for penguins to attract that much attention to themselves early in the beginning. Seems like he's your ordinary innocent that is trying to help the village.

Lalaith, I don't mind summaries, really I don't see a point...i guess it's more for organization, I'm never going to use it. There's nothing particular that waves a flag for me in Lalaith's post.

Firefoot, if innocent can greatly benefit the village, if penguin would probably be our demise. But we shouldn't lynch a player like Firefoot on Day 1, unless she wants to tell us a little secret that only 2 other people know?

Jenny just doesn't sit right with me. Seems like she's trying to squelch conversation and that's all we have on Day 1. Says if we start speculating who is gifted she thinks the penguins will catch on too easily. Now that I see sense in, if someone suspects a gifted, it's best to keep your mouth shut and keep it to yourself. But you see here Miss Embroiderer no one is talking about who is gifted, we are formulating a plan and possible strategies that the gifteds might want to try if they so desire.

Roa there is a common misconception about theories, everyone seems to think it's just baseless and preposterous. Now a true theory is a hypothesis based UPON facts. So, the facts are sitting out there and then based on those facts you form a hypothesis which = theory. And for everybody except the wps and the Seer all we have to find the penguins are theories. Which means taking facts, like what people say, how they vote, who's killed...etc taking that knowledge and using it to present a hypothesis that is backed up by facts (aka a theory).

phantom seems like the normal which leaves me undecided on him right now. He always comes out and talks strategies and plans these crazy schemes that everyone just disregards. So phantom is acting the same, but phantom will play the same whether he be innocent or a devil penguin. So I see phantom and Macalaure's little disagreement as two innocents, phantom proposes a plan and as usual somebody thinks it's crazy. But of the two I would expect phantom to be the penguin.

Spawn backs up and says she was going to say something like the phantom, for everyone to just leave clues on who they feel is innocent. Seems a little fishy to me...trying to associate yourself with an innocent perhaps?

Anguirel, has popped in couple, said his say, nothing strange there.

Eonwe Seems like she's having some Day 1 fun, but I hope that changes from our herald.

Well I think that's everybody and now on "phantom's plan". Now, correct me if I interepretted this wrong, but to me, this sounds like you're proposing all we do is sit and post a couple people to be innocent, name no one you think is guilty, this way the Seer can stay hidden.

Of course the Seer needs to stay alive as long as possible but this can be done without this strategy. Long long time, some 20 mega-zillion years ago my ancestor, the first of my family line to be haunted by wolves (as well as a werebear) was the Seer. And stayed until near the very end when at last revealed himself assuring victory for the village. And I'm reminded of my fathers game not too long ago...ok so my father didn't do so well, but Lommy our seer stayed out of wolf hands and when the time was right revealed herself.

Anyway, what I'm saying is theories, and who we find "guilty" is all we have (excluding the Seer) and that's OUR way of finding penguins. If we just go around claiming who's innocent we have nothing to go off of when it comes to voting, and who knows who'll be lynched. A talented and gifted Seer can effectively stay hidden without having to do this.