WWJ IX: Psychotic Penguins: The Crossing of Helcaraxë - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Lalaith · 06-08-2006, 06:04 AM

Well, this is all very civilised. After the epic dimensions of the last village I lived in, just a page to be getting on with. In fact, I feel quite up to a post analysis.

Phantom: disses penguins. Second post, answers Roa by pointing out cobbler is clueless. Says it is possible to make up theories about anyone, innocent or guilty.
Third post: don’t worry about Cobbler. That a clever villager could, at crunch-time, fool the Cobbler by impersonating a WP. Tells the Seer not to hint until tomorrow. Asks people to drop hints about innocents to help hide the Seer. Says Spawn is a WP, presumably in jest.
Fourth post: says he hadn't thought of a self-vote, that people shouldn’t be able to vote for themselves. (Tell that to Nilp and Guy!) Continues to explain Seer theory to Mac, that Seer must remain hidden.

Roa: prefers to analyse than theorise. Worries about cobbler, and warns against “faulty logic or baseless assumptions” and people stating theory as fact.

Eonwe: jokes with Roa, and then agrees with both Roa and phantom about Cobbler.
Second post, jokes with Boro about strangeness, points out possibility of double or triple bluffs.

Diamond: jokes, votes for Eomer. I do sympathise…
Second post, talks about the possibility of the Seer revealing the Cobbler by saying “ignore what x says.” (A bit odd – if the Seer was revealing anyway, then simply saying x is a Cobbler should be more straightforward. And for the Seer to reveal for the sake of unmasking a Cobbler seems foolhardy)

Boromir: posts in character but then says odd things. Talks about the confusion caused by the cobber, and also agrees with phantom, that the cobbler doesn’t know anything, but then seems to say it is important to lynch him anyway, which is I think what Roa was saying.
Second post – finds Valier and Eonwe “too strange” to be WPs. Is good with Firefoot because of her Cobbler comment. Sees nothing in the posts of Roa, phantom or Diamond.

Valier – first post is vintage Valier fuzzy logic. It’s early days, of course, but her family are famous for their instincts, if they are innocent…

Firefoot: continues the Cobbler debate. Makes the point (correct IMO) that the Cobbler is only really dangerous when s/he survives towards the end.
Second post: points out (which Mac already did) that Cobbler and wolves could all vote for Cobbler.

Jenny: says Cobbler is useless without the werecreatures. Voices half-jokey suspicions of phantom?
Second post: Keeps talking about phantom’s suspiciousness, and mentions own innocence. Says we should stop talking about gifteds. Says phantom, Encai (who hasn’t posted yet) and Valier are avian.

Naria – checks in to say she’s tired.

Macalaure – points out his nervous newbie status. Interprets Phantom’s post as an invitation to random lynching. Re-opens Cobbler debate, makes quite interesting point about distinction between cobblers and WPs. Thinks the arguments of innocents will be more logical than those of the guilty. Again points to newbie status.
Second post: answers phantom’s point about WP impersonation by saying the WPs could all vote for the Cobbler. (A good answer, actually) Also argues that people shouldn’t impersonate Seer.
Third post: continues to argue with phantom about Seer Impersonation, pleads for logic rather than confusion.

Anguirel – wants to fight phantom, finds him sensible so far but also guilty til proven innocent. Thinks Eonwe’s contributions are slight, Diamond’s are worrying and Valier’s are normal. Thinks Boromir’s first post is unhelpful but his second better. Thinks Firefoot’s headless chicken suggestion is sensible (!?) and fears her most, along with Boromir and phantom, as WP.
Second post: answers Mac’s Seer point, and agrees with phantom – although he remembers phantom might be guilty and thus ironic. Then says he doesn’t want hints at all. Remembers phantom’s “deliberate lynching of innocent” scheme, disagrees with it.
Third post: answers phantom, points out lynched volunteer leaves no trail.

Spawn: Agrees with Seer Impersonation plan. Thinks Mac’s Cobbler point is correct but hopes it won’t come to that.
Second post: argues, but in reassuring way, with Mac. Thinks a few Seerish hints harmless, that while everyone will try to be reasonable only the WPs and Seer know things for sure.

Yet to post: Kitanna, Encataire

This analysis is as much for my benefit as everyone else's. At the moment, I can only presume my own innocence. Looking over it, I'm quite interested in a few things, such as people who seem to be taking up two points of view simultaneously, and Mac's and phantom's interplay. Back for more, later.

the phantom · 06-08-2006, 07:22 AM

Just dropping in to let everyone know that I won't be around until the very end of the day (last half hour).

Are there double lynchings? If so, I'll be around to make sure one doesn't happen. See ya later.

Boromir88 · 06-08-2006, 07:34 AM

Some interesting discussion we've had since my last visit.

Quote:

Haha! Yes but think of the double-bluff implication on that one will you! And don't complain to me if the triple-bluff gets to you. You signed up for this were-penguine expose!~Eonwe

The only person I would expect to double-bluff is phantom...and actually I wouldn't put it past Anguirel either. Now that I say that I'm probably going to get double-bluffed out of my mind by everyone I least expected to.

Ok, so we have three little devil penguins in the village, and 14 villagers, which means approximately 1 wp to 5 innocent. So here goes my process of elimination:

Valier
Diamond18
Naria
Macalaure
Lalaith
Firefoot
Jenny
Roa
phantom
spawn
Kitanna
Encaitare
Anguirel
Eonwe

Like I said before I doubt wp's would be this eccentric and wild in the beginning. So for now there's no reason to suspect Valier.

I wonder if Diamond was making fun of me when in a past village my great grandfather first voted for Saucepan Man, but SpM wasn't even a member of the village.

Oh boy that was fun. Anyway, like Valier seems to eccentric to be a wp. But this I do find odd:

Quote:

A possible scenario would be for the Seer to dream of the Cobbler, and if/when they reveal, they can just tell us to ignore whatever that person says. But as this scenario requires the Seer revealing (and consequently dying) I still think that lynching the cobbler (or laughing when the penguins kill him/her at night) would do us just fine.

And exactly why would we want the Seer to do that? If someone comes out and says...don't pay attention to this person, then the penguins are going to find the Seer rather easily.

Also, and I'm going to need a mod ruling on this one, if I remember correctly since the Cobbler is an ordinary villager, if the Seer dreams of the cobbler all the seer is told is that person is innocent. Since the cobbler is a villager...just a twisted villager.

Naria I don't know at this point. Naria seems to be one of those silent contributors. Doesn't have to post a lot (unlike me) to have solid input and contribution to the village. I will be expecting to see more substance instead of just, hi I'm tired bye, but in this early going there's no reason to cry penguin.

Macalaure is just catching onto the game, which means he's one of the most innocent looking ones to me so far. His lack of understanding and his objection to phantom's proposal speaks towards his innocence. There's no reason for penguins to attract that much attention to themselves early in the beginning. Seems like he's your ordinary innocent that is trying to help the village.

Lalaith, I don't mind summaries, really I don't see a point...i guess it's more for organization, I'm never going to use it. There's nothing particular that waves a flag for me in Lalaith's post.

Firefoot, if innocent can greatly benefit the village, if penguin would probably be our demise. But we shouldn't lynch a player like Firefoot on Day 1, unless she wants to tell us a little secret that only 2 other people know?

Jenny just doesn't sit right with me. Seems like she's trying to squelch conversation and that's all we have on Day 1. Says if we start speculating who is gifted she thinks the penguins will catch on too easily. Now that I see sense in, if someone suspects a gifted, it's best to keep your mouth shut and keep it to yourself. But you see here Miss Embroiderer no one is talking about who is gifted, we are formulating a plan and possible strategies that the gifteds might want to try if they so desire.

Roa there is a common misconception about theories, everyone seems to think it's just baseless and preposterous. Now a true theory is a hypothesis based UPON facts. So, the facts are sitting out there and then based on those facts you form a hypothesis which = theory. And for everybody except the wps and the Seer all we have to find the penguins are theories. Which means taking facts, like what people say, how they vote, who's killed...etc taking that knowledge and using it to present a hypothesis that is backed up by facts (aka a theory).

phantom seems like the normal which leaves me undecided on him right now. He always comes out and talks strategies and plans these crazy schemes that everyone just disregards. So phantom is acting the same, but phantom will play the same whether he be innocent or a devil penguin. So I see phantom and Macalaure's little disagreement as two innocents, phantom proposes a plan and as usual somebody thinks it's crazy. But of the two I would expect phantom to be the penguin.

Spawn backs up and says she was going to say something like the phantom, for everyone to just leave clues on who they feel is innocent. Seems a little fishy to me...trying to associate yourself with an innocent perhaps?

Anguirel, has popped in couple, said his say, nothing strange there.

Eonwe Seems like she's having some Day 1 fun, but I hope that changes from our herald.

Well I think that's everybody and now on "phantom's plan". Now, correct me if I interepretted this wrong, but to me, this sounds like you're proposing all we do is sit and post a couple people to be innocent, name no one you think is guilty, this way the Seer can stay hidden.

Of course the Seer needs to stay alive as long as possible but this can be done without this strategy. Long long time, some 20 mega-zillion years ago my ancestor, the first of my family line to be haunted by wolves (as well as a werebear) was the Seer. And stayed until near the very end when at last revealed himself assuring victory for the village. And I'm reminded of my fathers game not too long ago...ok so my father didn't do so well, but Lommy our seer stayed out of wolf hands and when the time was right revealed herself.

Anyway, what I'm saying is theories, and who we find "guilty" is all we have (excluding the Seer) and that's OUR way of finding penguins. If we just go around claiming who's innocent we have nothing to go off of when it comes to voting, and who knows who'll be lynched. A talented and gifted Seer can effectively stay hidden without having to do this.

JennyHallu · 06-08-2006, 07:58 AM

I'm not trying to squelch conversation. I'm trying to turn it from fruitless cobbler-and-see talk to penguin catching. I've been in 3 separate villages where an evil villager was lynched on the first day, and I'm the last person you'll see complain about not having much to go on on day 1, especially since I ascribe none of those kills to luck.

I want to figure out who the evil ones are! And you, Boromir, have obliged by moving your focus. Thank you.

That quote from Diamond...I must have missed it. But she knows better! Must reread. Again. I really shouldn't contemplate village (I mean icefloe) matters at the same time as *aHEM* embroidering for my livelihood. I get confused.

Macalaure · 06-09-2006, 05:48 PM

Thanks to the phantom and Diamond. This now may look suicidal, but I think I would have done the same if I had some secret feathers. I couldn't have remained quiet, and messing up a plan by not just saying NO (like Boro and Ang(!) ) but giving random pros and cons - that's me.

Oh, and I am overwhelmed. I'm just acting.

You seem to see hints in posts that I can't even see when pointed out.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Also, and I'm going to need a mod ruling on this one, if I remember correctly since the Cobbler is an ordinary villager, if the Seer dreams of the cobbler all the seer is told is that person is innocent. Since the cobbler is a villager...just a twisted villager.

Somehow, this kept sticking in the back of my head. Curse you, penguin!

What troubled me about Kitanna was that in one post she said she saves her retraction for possibly retracting on herself, and in the next it's "I need to remain alive - only I can save Lal."
Made no sense to me, but doesn't matter anymore, now.

EDIT: Well, goodnight. Read you tomorrow.

06-08-2006, 06:04 AM	#1
Lalaith Blithe Spirit Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 2,779	Well, this is all very civilised. After the epic dimensions of the last village I lived in, just a page to be getting on with. In fact, I feel quite up to a post analysis. Phantom: disses penguins. Second post, answers Roa by pointing out cobbler is clueless. Says it is possible to make up theories about anyone, innocent or guilty. Third post: don’t worry about Cobbler. That a clever villager could, at crunch-time, fool the Cobbler by impersonating a WP. Tells the Seer not to hint until tomorrow. Asks people to drop hints about innocents to help hide the Seer. Says Spawn is a WP, presumably in jest. Fourth post: says he hadn't thought of a self-vote, that people shouldn’t be able to vote for themselves. (Tell that to Nilp and Guy!) Continues to explain Seer theory to Mac, that Seer must remain hidden. Roa: prefers to analyse than theorise. Worries about cobbler, and warns against “faulty logic or baseless assumptions” and people stating theory as fact. Eonwe: jokes with Roa, and then agrees with both Roa and phantom about Cobbler. Second post, jokes with Boro about strangeness, points out possibility of double or triple bluffs. Diamond: jokes, votes for Eomer. I do sympathise… Second post, talks about the possibility of the Seer revealing the Cobbler by saying “ignore what x says.” (A bit odd – if the Seer was revealing anyway, then simply saying x is a Cobbler should be more straightforward. And for the Seer to reveal for the sake of unmasking a Cobbler seems foolhardy) Boromir: posts in character but then says odd things. Talks about the confusion caused by the cobber, and also agrees with phantom, that the cobbler doesn’t know anything, but then seems to say it is important to lynch him anyway, which is I think what Roa was saying. Second post – finds Valier and Eonwe “too strange” to be WPs. Is good with Firefoot because of her Cobbler comment. Sees nothing in the posts of Roa, phantom or Diamond. Valier – first post is vintage Valier fuzzy logic. It’s early days, of course, but her family are famous for their instincts, if they are innocent… Firefoot: continues the Cobbler debate. Makes the point (correct IMO) that the Cobbler is only really dangerous when s/he survives towards the end. Second post: points out (which Mac already did) that Cobbler and wolves could all vote for Cobbler. Jenny: says Cobbler is useless without the werecreatures. Voices half-jokey suspicions of phantom? Second post: Keeps talking about phantom’s suspiciousness, and mentions own innocence. Says we should stop talking about gifteds. Says phantom, Encai (who hasn’t posted yet) and Valier are avian. Naria – checks in to say she’s tired. Macalaure – points out his nervous newbie status. Interprets Phantom’s post as an invitation to random lynching. Re-opens Cobbler debate, makes quite interesting point about distinction between cobblers and WPs. Thinks the arguments of innocents will be more logical than those of the guilty. Again points to newbie status. Second post: answers phantom’s point about WP impersonation by saying the WPs could all vote for the Cobbler. (A good answer, actually) Also argues that people shouldn’t impersonate Seer. Third post: continues to argue with phantom about Seer Impersonation, pleads for logic rather than confusion. Anguirel – wants to fight phantom, finds him sensible so far but also guilty til proven innocent. Thinks Eonwe’s contributions are slight, Diamond’s are worrying and Valier’s are normal. Thinks Boromir’s first post is unhelpful but his second better. Thinks Firefoot’s headless chicken suggestion is sensible (!?) and fears her most, along with Boromir and phantom, as WP. Second post: answers Mac’s Seer point, and agrees with phantom – although he remembers phantom might be guilty and thus ironic. Then says he doesn’t want hints at all. Remembers phantom’s “deliberate lynching of innocent” scheme, disagrees with it. Third post: answers phantom, points out lynched volunteer leaves no trail. Spawn: Agrees with Seer Impersonation plan. Thinks Mac’s Cobbler point is correct but hopes it won’t come to that. Second post: argues, but in reassuring way, with Mac. Thinks a few Seerish hints harmless, that while everyone will try to be reasonable only the WPs and Seer know things for sure. Yet to post: Kitanna, Encataire This analysis is as much for my benefit as everyone else's. At the moment, I can only presume my own innocence. Looking over it, I'm quite interested in a few things, such as people who seem to be taking up two points of view simultaneously, and Mac's and phantom's interplay. Back for more, later. __________________ Out went the candle, and we were left darkling Last edited by Lalaith; 06-08-2006 at 06:07 AM. Reason: putting in line spaces for clarity

06-08-2006, 07:22 AM	#2
the phantom Beloved Shadow Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: The Stadium Posts: 5,971	Just dropping in to let everyone know that I won't be around until the very end of the day (last half hour). Are there double lynchings? If so, I'll be around to make sure one doesn't happen. See ya later. __________________ the phantom has posted. This thread is now important.

06-08-2006, 07:58 AM	#4
JennyHallu The Pearl, The Lily Maid Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: In my luxury Barrow, snuggled up in a pile of satin pillows, eating fresh fruit. Posts: 1,628	I'm not trying to squelch conversation. I'm trying to turn it from fruitless cobbler-and-see talk to penguin catching. I've been in 3 separate villages where an evil villager was lynched on the first day, and I'm the last person you'll see complain about not having much to go on on day 1, especially since I ascribe none of those kills to luck. I want to figure out who the evil ones are! And you, Boromir, have obliged by moving your focus. Thank you. That quote from Diamond...I must have missed it. But she knows better! Must reread. Again. I really shouldn't contemplate village (I mean icefloe) matters at the same time as aHEM embroidering for my livelihood. I get confused. __________________ <=== Lookee, lookee, lots of IM handles!