Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXII: Hic Monstrae Trucidant

[mormegil]

After his last post I wouldn't put it past LMP to be the third wolf. It might be a bit of a stretch but think about it, the wolves (TGWBS, LMP, and Durelin) know that most likely Durelin would die today anyway so why not take the initiative away from us and do it themselves. He casts suspicion on a real wolf and equal suspicion on a likely innocent.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by mormegil

After his last post I wouldn't put it past LMP to be the third wolf. It might be a bit of a stretch but think about it, the wolves (TGWBS, LMP, and Durelin) know that most likely Durelin would die today anyway so why not take the initiative away from us and do it themselves. He casts suspicion on a real wolf and equal suspicion on a likely innocent.

Elempi really doesn't seem suspicious to me, but I have a feeling he would be awfully good at deflecting suspicion as a wolf. *shrugs* Don't know. What, other than the suspicion casting, makes you suspect him?

That said, time for a vote. I don't know how busy tomorrow is going to be.

++ DURELIN

[Caranlondien]

lmp, I don't know whether to agree with you whole-heartedly or shrink back and shout "Wolf!"... But then, I never do.

Two early votes for Durelin, and one analysis saying she's not as suspicious as she looks initially, but she's still one of the most suspicious people here. Fascinating (another Star Trek fan here, and I thought of Odo, too when I read Fea's posts yesterDay )

It has occurred to me that we should look at people who began to contribute to the bit of suspicion that surrounded Fin. To be honest, I thought she was the Seer, which is why I mentioned her as looking a little suspicious to me - I didn't want the wolves to kill her. It seems they may already have been thinking along the same lines.

Of course, I was one of those people saying she looked suspicious, and I'm the hunter, so it's hardly a stamp on one's death warrant. But it's worth looking at, anyway. Before I mentioned her, she was on everyone's "Probably Innocent" lists. After that, she started appearing on the "Wolvish" lists. Are we all so easily swayed as I am?

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by mormegil

After his last post I wouldn't put it past LMP to be the third wolf. It might be a bit of a stretch but think about it, the wolves (TGWBS, LMP, and Durelin) know that most likely Durelin would die today anyway so why not take the initiative away from us and do it themselves. He casts suspicion on a real wolf and equal suspicion on a likely innocent.

I can't say as I blame you for leaving no stone unturned as we need to find the werewolves fast. So I see your point. However, I confess myself an ordo. By all means, analyze my posts and compare them with others you also find suspicious, and make the choice you deem most wise. Unless, of course, you're throwing my name up, Morm, because you have something furry to hide.... (half closes eyes and looks most suspiciously for the first time this game (admittedly) at Morm....)

[Lhunardawen]

I'm completely relieved to find you yet alive, Caran. With all these distressing events it's nice to have someone to trust - even if you probably know only just as much as we do now.

There's another probable explanation to why you haven't been killed: the wolves would rather risk killing a possible gifted, in this case Fin. Perhaps they thought her to be the Seer or the Changeling, which can sort of explain why she seemed too careful. In a village in history (Werewolf XVIII) a Fool named Formendacil was left alive by the wolves, who went instead for the unknown morm (I think) who turned out to be the Hunter (again, I think). No offense, but like the Fool, you're practically just a simple ordo in life since your gift only comes out in your death.

I'll be reading Fin's last posts to see if there's anything that might have triggered her killing and will be back with it, also with new thoughts on some rather elusive villagers.

But before I do, let me say that my suspect list is now composed of Durelin, tgwbs, and Mith to some extent...perhaps there's reason for me to doubt her sincere-seeming outburst yesterDay.

[mormegil]

Oh that I were the seer and could proclaim that I know that LMP and TGWBS are wolves but I cannot I can only speculate. I must say I've kept this suspicion quiet for a while but now the time it ripe to vocalize it. I've been suspicious of LMP for quite some time now but wanted to keep going under the guise that I trusted him for my plan to lay full. I cannot currently cite posts or make a traditional case. Let's call it a general impression, or gut feeling. His behavior pattern has seemed very parallel to what a wolf would do. He's been vocal enough and accusatory enough to draw sufficient attention to not be accused of that prosaic pharse 'flying under the radar'. He has been bold enough to not be accused of being timid but he's always kept just in the background enough to escape unwanted attention. He's tried to attach himself to some innocent, me included, and he then seems rather altrustic in his response to me but quickly attempt to turn the tables on me and make me the suspicious one.

++LMP

Though TGWBS and Durelin are great candidates as well as I think both them to be wolves.

[Caranlondien]

Just by general impressions, without having done any real analysis, lmp and tgwbs are at the top of my suspect list right now. I remember, however, that yesterDay Fin did an analysis of lmp, and she said that by the end she wasn't as suspicious of him as she had previously been.

Originally Posted by morm

Generally if the wolves feel they know the seer they will attack him no matter what.

Agreed. It's definitely worth looking at why people might have been killed. But I tend to think the wolves thought Fin was the Seer because of her change in opinion of Mith.

Now Lhuna's posts toDay have been comforting... She looks pretty innocent. And her analysis of Fin looks helpful. Fin's dropping Mith as a suspect might indicate Mith is innocent, as the wolves may have thought Fin dreamt of her the Night before.

I desperately need some sleep. I'll be back well before deadline, though.

Voting Update
lmp => Durelin (Durelin 1)
Celuien => Durelin (Durelin 2)
mormegil => lmp (Durelin 2, lmp 1)
Lhuna => tgwbs (Durelin 2, lmp 1, tgwbs 1)

[Thinlómien]

I quickly read through Fin's posting and I found two reasons why the wolves mighthave thought her the seer (besides the Mith-reason Cara presented):
- She changed her opinion of LMP too. This was done by a subtler way, an analysis.
- On Day 2 she stepped to Cara's (who we now know to be our hunter) defense and said a bit later that she was convinced Cara's innocence. Maybe the wolves thought her to be the seer and that she had dreamed of Cara.

My thoughts on everyone in the village:
Lhuna - feels pretty innocent to me. I can't think of nything very suspicious in her.
Cailín - difficult to read, but I'd say she's innocent
Celuien - feels very innocent to me. Doesn't make me alarmed in any sense.
TGWBS - suspicious, but I'd still hesitate to vote him because I fear he might just be innocent again
Lommy - innocent
Nogrod - I don't find anything particularly suspicious in him.
lmp - I think Fin's death might point to his innocence. I can't see anything very suspicious in him in other ways either.
Tom - not sure what to think of him. Makes good points, but I'm not sure if I can trust him.
Caran - hunter and innocent, o'course
Mith - Her RL-based defense was quite convincing, but her SPM-arguments and u-turn on Day 2 (?) still look a bit bad.
morm - I'm still wary of him, though he makes more sense day after day. His post #268 still troubles me.
Durelin - might be an innocent as well as a wolf. She's just plain confusing. I would hesitate to vote her without a good reason.

Now, toDay we should catch a wolf. Really. Otherwise we're in a big bad trouble later on.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Oh that I were the seer and could proclaim that I know that LMP and TGWBS are wolves but I cannot I can only speculate. I must say I've kept this suspicion quiet for a while but now the time it ripe to vocalize it. I've been suspicious of LMP for quite some time now but wanted to keep going under the guise that I trusted him for my plan to lay full. I cannot currently cite posts or make a traditional case. Let's call it a general impression, or gut feeling.

Ah. I see how it is. So that leaves me trying to determine whether you're honestly mistaken or a werewolf trumping up a case. All I ask is that you compare my posts, in substance, to those of Durelin. Who is acting more like a werewolf? Obviously, you could object that it's one werewolf trying to look good at the expense of another. And maybe if I were one I might play that way. That's about the best answer I can give you, Morm, and shall in the meantime concentrate on trying to help my fell ordos extricate the werewolves (you?) from their cynical silence.

However, I find myself pretty convinced of the innocence of Morm, Mith, Celuien, & Lhuna. Largely because there's an intermingling of trust between these four already, their posts have been mutually supporting, and they ring true (except about me, Morm).

EDIT: Okay, Lommy isn't using Fin's analysis the way I suspected she might. So my suspicions of her are relaxed. Oh, one more likely innocent: Nogrod; which leaves my list of suspicious characters rather small: Durelin, tom, Guy. Cailin I can't say much about and so won't.

[the guy who be short]

If I had time for an indignant response, be sure that I would post one. As it is, what time I do have must be spent on productive activities, not destructive ones, especially as my only suspect died in the night.

I don't see that any good points have been made against me so far. All of this "mounting suspicion" seems unwilling to base itself on fact, or at least on objective fact. Here I outline the very few points brought against me.

Originally Posted by Celuien

Case TGWBS
1. Too much Pokemon.
2. Almost insisting that we give control of the voting to Caran yesterday. Argument has been made by Mormegil and I forget who else. I think Caran pointed out the problems with that idea as well. Anyway, it seems like an idea that gives wolves a place to hide. Also is a convenient way to ally with the known innocent and look less suspicious by association.

It's notable that 50% of my suspicion comes from liking pokémon. Never mind all the other analysis and substance that goes with it - the pokémon is condemning! I see.

To those who have vocally opposed the idea of giving Caran power - Nogrod, morm, now Celuien - I do not claim to understand you. Perhaps you are merely weak or obstinate. Perhaps you are wolves.

An objective shortlist eliminates lupine autonomy. It narrows votes into a field small enough to make lupine influence much less significant - With four people to choose from, each one would receive an average of three or four votes. All the wolves voting for one of the candidates, were they stupid enough to do so, would not unduly influence the innocents, as three votes for one person would be entirely expected.

To all those claiming "good points" have been made about how wolves could "manipulate" the shortlist - I bid you make them. I have not heard them. All I find is vague mentionings of "easy manipulation" with no description. Perhaps there is something I have overlooked, in which case I will not be afraid to admit it. But first, you must clarify what you mean.

The third and final point that had been levied against me:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

His eagerness to show his innocence (by overstressing the importance of the revealed Hunter) and the suggestion for us all vote on the basis of the list where he (most probably) would not be, seem quite suspicious to me.

Is simply a variation of the above, with one addition sentence, which is that I eagerly show my innocence. A wolf would not try to save the Hunter. The Hunter is dangerous, and gets increasingly dangerous for wolves as the village gets smaller. A wolf would pretend not to be online and let the Hunter die, lynched and taking nobody with them. People who cannot see this are irrational.



On a separate note, I think I will vote

++LHUNA

Because innocents don't go around naming their gifteds, especially at this stage in the game.