Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXII: Hic Monstrae Trucidant

[littlemanpoet]

I see your point, Findëasëa.

So..... posting frequency:

The Saucepan Man 20
Caranlondien 11
Celuien 10
Thinlómien 9
Mithalwen 8
Kath 8
Findëasëa 8
the guy who be short 8
Cailín 7
Durelin 6
Feanor of the Peredhil 5
dancing spawn of ungoliant 5
Nogrod 7 (4 if you discount his after-Day One rampage)
littlemanpoet 4
mormegil 3
Lhunardawen 3
Nilpaurion Felagund 2
tom bombariffic 2

I'm not claiming that this tells us a WHOLE lot, only who may be trying to fly under the radar early. Nogrod has called undue attention to himself, as have Caranlondien and Durelin. My take on that is likely innocence. If this seems like a flip-flop to some of you, so be it: I reserve the right to change my mind based on new thoughts presented by intelligent co-players.

So I'm still suspicious of Spawn

Originally Posted by Saucy

I am surprised that spawn was caught up in the shoddy reasoning that led to him being lynched.

Originally Posted by Guy

spawn, in a very long post, casually remarked that she thought Form was being more defensive than usual.

Originally Posted by Saucy

Tom, Lommy, spawn and Fin voted for Boro yesterday.

I hunch that one of the werewolves may have voted for Boro.


Therefore:

-- Caranlondien

++ Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant

[Findëasëa]

Although posting frequency is something that we should examine, I think that there is a difference between volume and substance. The acting pattern that I find most suspicious at this time is that of the falsely helpful villager. The actions of someone who would fit into this pattern posts little of substance, instead choosing to leach off of others arguments while doing little theorizing. So instead of a contribution they might offer more of a commentary. I am going to look back to try to identify people who might fit into this category.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Fascinating reading material that you've all given me.

Based on vibes (cut me slack, I'm tired after packing my entire room up and moving home in one 103* afternoon while also stressing over the coming weekend and trying to finish rewrites), I'm currently leaning toward the innocence of Saucie and LMP. Those vibes are subject to change at any time, but right now I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt and given that I'm leaning toward Spam's innocence, I'm also leaning toward listening to his opinions with more than a "he's probably a wolf so I'm going to ignore him."

I'm reserving my thoughts on Form's death and the Caran Bandwagon until after I've had some sleep.

[Thinlómien]

morm really worries me. Yesterday he posted twice, both posts only a few lines. He explained he had a lot of work, so I let it be. Today, however, when I came to check how our village is doing, I find one post from morm, only a few lines echoing things that have been said and adding one vote to a bandwagon. I find this very odd. This is not his usual playing style. Usually he discusses and gives theories and ends up with quarreling with somebody. (No offense, morm.) If I could imagine morm trying to fly under radar it'd be this, but this would be a stupid move from wolf-morm since it gathers attention. Furthermore, I've seen a wolf-morm and he played his normal way. So I have no idea what to make of this (expect that morm's busy and he just doesn't mention it on the TiG-thread ). I will keep my eyes on this weird creature (). And morm, I'd be glad if you cared to explain.

Caran looks pretty bad now, but I hesitate to make her my suspect before I've reread through her posts myself. I think I might only be influenced by the public opinion.

[Cailín]

A lot of early suspicion and even some bandwagoning, I see. Now I may be wrong, but Caranlondien personally does not strike me as decidedly wolvish. I will have to review her posts again myself - as Lommy said, tis easy to be swayed by public opinion - yet she seems too forward and too genuine to be a wolf. My lorebooks say nothing on Caran as a fanged one, I think, but I'd say she'd be a more flying under radar type. So for now, I must agree with Fin.

The death of Boromir surprised and disappointed me greatly. His innocence was pretty obvious to me. Of course, I voted for an innocent too..

Originally Posted by TGWBAsh

I find this very suspicious and wouldn't put it past both of them being wolves. I would like to hear why Cailin suddenly changed her mind. Spawn, meanwhile, appears to be very influential in her summary posts.

Well, I am not denying Spawn is not very influential, but my reasoning was as follows: there was no one I was really suspicious of, as I clearly stated before. So in traditional Day 1 style, I was grasping at straws. Secondly, I really had expected more contribution from Formendacil later on, and he did post more, but only after I had already left. And thirdly, I was trying to be 'fair'. A lot of time, people are exempt from Day 1 votes based on their reputation (oh - they'll be more helpful later on), which might not be the right way to go about this. Now I admit that's a bit shoddy, but frankly, I couldn't come up with a more decent case.

Form as an innocent dying does not surprise me. Probably the "be more helpful later on" thing combined with leaving the tiniest trail as possible.

As to Saucepan Man… I am inclined to trust him, still, but I acknowledge that we cannot blindly assume his innocence. That is why -in his case- I rely on the Seer / Changeling dreaming / becoming him. It sounds a little paranoid, but he's just too good to neglect.

I also agree - to an extent - with Lommy's thoughts on Morm.

I'm going to review Spawn's, Caran's and Fin's posts. Be back later.

[Lhunardawen]

I know I'm not the tragedienne, but I'm almost tempted to keel over and die with the wanderer, with whom I feel a bit of connection - we're both lost...sort of. Yet maybe I can help with finding and destroying the fiends who did this before I do.

So. Boromir's lynching yesterDay is really odd...reminds me of a certain Gurthang from a village of old: he died for presenting a possible strategy without really presenting it, if you know what I mean. Why can't we all learn that when people do this they're usually innocent? Just usually, mind.

Anyways, I mostly agree with SpM's analysis of the Boromir-voters. Right now I'm not yet suspicious of dancing spawn - the mere thought of her being a wolf makes me shudder. However with the usual mayhem of Day Ones I doubt the wolves would actually contribute to an innocent's death, so here ends my thoughts on Boromir's lynching.

Now, on to last Night's kill choice *wipes away tear*. The easiest explanation so far as I can see is that he left no trails yesterDay. And of course, it will confuse us. I think a double bluff from Caran is too far-fetched a theory; I'm more ready to believe that at least one of his voters - Elempi, SpM, or Cailín - is lupine. But even that is not enough basis to suspect them much.

I know how hard it is to read lengthy posts so I'll post my own suspicions separately, after I have time to organize my thoughts. Sort of.

[Lhunardawen]

Lommy got there before I did: yes, I find morm...unsettling. It doesn't seem to be him. So with Elempi. I find it hard to believe that he will jump to vote just like that. Maybe there's RL to blame for both of them, or they're trying a different playing style, or they're gauging reactions, or they're executing what Boromir insisted yesterDay as a way of using retractable votes to catch wolves. But I'm sure it's safe to say that this is odd behavior for them.

A case has also been made against Kakashi...I mean Durelin. Elempi said in her defense that she is capable of recklessness, but that's exactly the kind of reasoning that lets us ignore the bold wolves.

Finally, this probably makes no sense but I'm a bit wary of Fea. Randomness is always scary.

[Cailín]

Looking back, I cannot find the post TGWBS was referring to, which could have swayed me. That's a relief.

Spawn looks less wolvish to me after reviewing what she has said. Her vote for Boromir is a bit odd and something I don't agree with, but she also expressed suspicion of Formendacil. I would think Spawn the Wolf a little more subtle than having her main Day 1 suspects both killed off immediately, if you get what I mean.

Caranlondien was acting a little flip-floppy yesterDay. If she's a wolf, she is a decidedly lot braver than I guessed she would be (no offence meant, of course, Caran strikes me as the careful wolf type). She accused almost all the 'big names' which is quite a daring strategy.

I think a double bluff from Caran is too far-fetched a theory; I'm more ready to believe that at least one of his voters - Elempi, SpM, or Cailín - is lupine. But even that is not enough basis to suspect them much.

I agree and I don't.

I personally think the (majority of) wolves are among those people who mentioned Formendacil little if at all.

[Lhunardawen]

I forgot to add that though I'm uncomfortable with Fea's randomness, I count her unwillingness to use the retract votes function in her favor. So that's my opinion for everyone to see: I've never played with them before, but I will not retract my votes if I can help it, and I shall keep an eye on those who do it a lot.

Time to give in to timezones. We really need a doctor in these parts.

Hoom, hoom.

++DURELIN

I wouldn't put it past her to be a bold wolf.

Good Day, everyone.

[tom bombariffic]

Just checking in before I begin my morning's analysis of day 1 key players.

I'll be around more today than on day 1, which is good news (hopefully). As far as what has already been said goes, I'm certainly slightly swayed by this caranlondian suspicion. I think morm's emphasis on her over-reaction (lmp may have said this too) is a key point, and one that strikes me as very odd. I'm witholding judgement for now but I've got my better eye on you, Caran...

Having said this, I'm also suspicious of morm. This issue had been alluded to, most substantially by thinlomien, but never really discussed. I'm just very aware that morm's most recent ancestor was a wolf, who was very successful because he kept playing exactly like his ancestors. To behave the same again would cause suspicion, and so perhaps he felt that a change in style, becoming less dominant, may help him slip through the net. I'll be interested to see how he acts today.

I'll be back shortly having looked back properly at day 1.

bombariffic

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Nilpaurion Felagund has left the game.

You have been granted control of Nilpaurion Felagund's units.

[littlemanpoet]

I know for me, and perhaps for Morm this also applies: werewolf weariness. The interest is there, but the strength of mind just is taking a little while to catch up. SPM, however, his ancestors were out early in the last great tide of evil, and so he's raring to go. As to different playing style, I refer you to the fact that votes are retractable, and therefore, why not? Puts a little pressure on those suspected. Seems appropriate to use the device if it's there to be used. That's all for now.

[tom bombariffic]

SpM started out day 1 in a fairly light tone, with an in-character post predicting the outcome of the game (post 13).

He followed this immediately with a serious note about the changeling (they should be good) and then a random vote for fea.

This was a jokey, easy-going, day-1 start; practical, but taking it easy. However, when the village's confusion became clear, SpM took control.

Post 46 was a long one. After an initial in-character spiel, and a note to nilp (which, incidentally, just baffled me at the time), there followed a long argument for the changeling being 'good', and some observations on retractable votes (they can, and should, be used to our advantage). He declined (like boro, which he noted) to say how they could be useful, but maintained that they could.

He concluded this post with a long series of reactions to suspicious behaviour:
Fea for over-reacting to suspicions against her (including his)
Form and Lommy for claiming that Day 1 is useless
Nilp for his "lynch the loudmouths" campaign
Caran and Cailin (slightly suspicious of both) for jumping on the retractable votes bandwaggon.

Fea persuaded him to change his vote to form (reasoning that he was always suspicious of her, and that she had been posting in-character), though he found this in itself suspicious, and continued to watch her like a saucy hawk. He acknowledged himself that fea's quick reply to his comments about her showed that she wasn't as pressed for time as she made out, and that she was too quick to defend herself, and yet still changed his vote to form, who he had far less suspicions about. This is the only major thing from his participation on day 1 that I am worried about.

The next post also showed inconsistency, explaining how retractable votes can be useful (after saying that he wouldn't). He was not even pressed into doing this: Boromir was under suspicion, not him. However, to me, his diving in seemed more like an attempt to move the village in the right direction rather than anything particularly wolfish.

After this, an innocent response to kath's clarification of the changeling role, and the propounding of his ill-fated (now extinct) animalia theory.

a quick series of short posts followed, in which he basically replied to people doubting him. Again, there was very little suspicious in them. They were a defence of his posting against inconsistency (in which I agreed with sauce) and a couple of posts on his animalia theory.

In post 68, SpM actually contradicted celuien's defence of him, saying that he is suspicious, just not evil. I never like it when people say this, but an awful lot have, so he's not alone. In his next post, number 74, with his explanation of how the wolves should be acting and his categorisation of villagers into behavioural groups, he said that the signs of wolfishness would be ineffectual posting, or attempts to keep day 1 unprofitable. This was straight down the line of what he has been saying all along. So was his next post, in which he insisted on boromir's innocence.

Next he defended his categorisation of me as not particularly wolfish, basically saying I'm rubbish but not a wolf. Which is a fair point. I'm not sure whether he was implying that I was trying to say little of value, or that I just had said little of value, but I assume it was the latter, as the former would surely have made him more suspicious than he appears to be.




Thus ends my long and boring narration of saucepan man's life story. Now, perhaps, some analysis.

At first, I was suspicious of him. His early lack of seriousness followed by a sudden flood of earnest posts about boromir and retractable votes struck me as odd, and my initial assumption was that, after trying to keep a low profile, he saw himself being suspected and tried to take control of the voting to save himself.

But I'm not so sure. Whilst over the subject of feanor he did change his mind rather inexplicably, he has been by and large extremely consistent in his attitude, and was proven right about boromir. He has also tried to look at everyone, rather than campaigning against a particular person.

One thing that does make me uncomfortable is the overt way in which he took control; given the killing of formendacil, a particularly low-participating player, his control of the village worried me. But the voting for boromir was strongly against his wishes, so perhaps I am over'stating his influence, and the kill was on someone he voted for (form), which would be a bold move for a wolf.

Looking over yesterday has reassured me. I think it's important to watch how he tries to influence people, and how he reacts if others (eg morm) become more prominent as well, but for now he's clear of suspicion in my mind.

bombariffic