Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXII: Hic Monstrae Trucidant

[Nogrod]

Killed by an eagle using a turtle! So we'll just figure out all the turtle- and eaglelike characters and put them in a line to be questioned...

But really. I think we can do better than this. The feel in the village is like we were all gathered on a picnic. Still we quite definitively have to lynch someone in the evening. And this way we just end up with wild guesses (and messing it all up with all these retractions).

This Changeling, though is our real asset - as soon as s/he realizes it truly. I'm in total agreement with Spm here:

The likelihood is that the Changeling will end up on the village's side at the end. Ergo she should act on behalf of the village throughout, even when she chooses a Wolf's identity to steal at Night. Use the power of the Wolves against them, my dear, that's my advice.

I would add to this, that the Changeling - if alive on Day4 or something - should actually take her/his role as our second seer by then. S/he's not allowed to say that she knows the things because of her role, but no one can deny any one of us to write f.ex. "I just know that X, Y & Z are innocents and W is a wolf". I think we should be on the lookout for that kind of messages later on the game - and the Changeling should make them. With two seers, we're having the upper hand here.

[Thinlómien]

Poor Kath.
May she rest in peace.

I think the Changeling is an advantage to the village in most cases. If she (I use feminine pronouns of all unknowns) chooses a wolf, she can mess the wolves' plans by killing someone they don't plan to kill. If she chooses an ordo, we know for sure that she's on our side.

The only problem about her is that she can mess the gifteds' plans as well as the wolves' plans. Anyway, if we have stupid gifteds (which I hope we don't) that can be an advantage as well. Besides, even then she's not evil.

Retractable votes create confusion. There are lots of early votes thrown around... I understand people just want to stir the discussion a bit, or have fun, but wouldn't that make a perfect cover for a wolf? Especially when there's plenty of these random votes around...

[Thinlómien]

I could maybe join the "I hate Day 1s"-club. Everybody's just babbling nonsense except a few changeling-speculations.

I would like to say that Cailín's usually more reasonable and her behaviour today worries me, but the prevailing conditions being retractable votes and Day 1, I really can't say anything, except that whoever the wolves are it's easy to hide for them toDay.

I think that it's quite probable that at least one wolf-on-wolf-vote will be thrown toDay and be retracted.

My lunch break draws to its end, so I have to go. I will be back before Nightfall...

edit: xed with spawn

[Nogrod]

I know this may sound futile to some, but I still think we should explore, or at least pay heed to all possible (even though unprobable) sides of the game dynamics when there are new things around.

We all were asked about our animal for the game. Now it was actually an Eagle and a Turtle that killed Kath. I don't know, whether it helps us a lot toDay (we can always speculate about them if we wish), but if the same three animals seem to appear on the nightly kills, we should probably take them more seriously.

I agree with Spawn and Lommy about looking more closely the votes cast early on and also the banter.

= Spawn
Seeing that the Changeling has the power to decide on the Night's kill, s/he could just pick someone who looks the most suspicious to him/her (I assume s/he can't choose to kill the Wolf whose role s/he stole) - or can't the Wolves kill each other?

I kind of remember that she can't kill the wolf she picked, but she is able to kill another wolf. And then of course she may reveal the wolf she picked later (among a possible host of innocents). That's why I'd ike to call her our second Seer. Now if we could just come up with means for the Changeling and the Seer to distribute the picks among themselves so that they wouldn't overlap, like the one picking up the loudmouths and the other the quieter ones or something...

[Lhunardawen]

What?! Kath dead? Three werewolves? This wasn't in the pamphlet...

Wait, Animalia? What am I doing here? I'm supposed to be in Animalta!

Oh well...

There's only one thing I can say right now: Form is the Changeling. Look at him, he's a homeless wanderer.

Day Ones are simply wonderful, aren't they?

[Lhunardawen]

After a bit of thinking - directionless for the most part - I finally understood what Nogrod meant by calling the Changeling the second Seer. Doh! He'll know the roles and get to play them for a time. With there having more innocents than fiends, then he's more likely to pick an innocent, and a well-timed revelation of what he knows and what the Seer knows will lead us closer to victory - even without double lynches.

A downside, though a bit unlikely, here is if the Changeling is inherently evil and chooses to play for the dark side. Like if he catches the Seer one Night and a wolf the next, he could kill the Seer for the lycans. Unlikely, as I said, though still very probable.

I don't know about you guys, but I hate it when someone holds this much power.

[littlemanpoet]

Frolic frolic

Feels like early morning here and the graves don't dig themselves. However I have a moment.

++ FORMENDACIL

I just don't trust him. Lupine. Wolvish. Sneak.

[Lhunardawen]

I guess I must be off. I leave you with

++THE GUY WHO BE SHORT

because who knows what beast he might use against one of us next?

Now, if you'll excuse me...which way is the hut where I'm staying?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

After a bit of thinking - directionless for the most part - I finally understood what Nogrod meant by calling the Changeling the second Seer. Doh! He'll know the roles and get to play them for a time. With there having more innocents than fiends, then he's more likely to pick an innocent, and a well-timed revelation of what he knows and what the Seer knows will lead us closer to victory - even without double lynches.

A downside, though a bit unlikely, here is if the Changeling is inherently evil and chooses to play for the dark side. Like if he catches the Seer one Night and a wolf the next, he could kill the Seer for the lycans. Unlikely, as I said, though still very probable.

I don't know about you guys, but I hate it when someone holds this much power.

Well, I don't like the situation very much either, but we just have to cope with it.

Well, let's hope the Changeling plays on the good side and if she plays on the wrong side, she doesn't catch the seer. But as said before, it would profit the Changeling herself more if she was on the Good side.

And more frolicing... I hope the situation is a bit better when I come back this evening. (I'm in +3 GMT.)

Day One is pretty useless on Day One, but on the next Days, it is usually even more useful than one could suspect.

edit: xed with Boromir

[Thinlómien]

I didn't say retractables are not a benefit to the village, because they are, in some situations. I just don't like people toying with them.

And now I'm really going. I'll be back.

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by Durelin

I disagree on the 'un-thought-out' bit, at least on my part. I assure you, my vote for him was not purely out of a rush to save you. Sorry, but it wasn't. (considering you hadn't revealed yourself yet when I voted).

Actually, I meant un-thought-out on my part. At the end there, TGWBS and I were both willing to vote for someone else, but didn't have time to compare and contrast. While I was somewhat suspicious of SpM all along, at that point my vote for him had really just been to save myself.

Now, an analysis:

Lommy
Day One
Post #31: Thinks the Changeling will mostly help us - even as a wolf, may mess up wolves' plans. Points out they might also mess up the gifteds' plans. Doesn't like retractable votes

#33: Says everyone's babbling nonsense. Thinks Cailin's acting lessn reasonable than usual, but that's probably because of the retractable votes. Thinks it will be easy for the wolves to hide on Day One. Thinks it's likely there will be a wolf-on-wolf vote, which will then be retracted.

#40: Agrees with Lhuna that she doesn't like having someone (the Changeling) hold this much power, but says we'll just have to deal with it. Emphasizes the Changeling should play on the good side. Points out Day One isn't useful on Day One, but it will be useful later.

#41: Clarifies statement about retractable votes for Boro. Says she didn't say they weren't useful, but just doesn't like people toying with them.

#71: Corrects SpM characterization of her - says she isn't very anti-Day One, just doesn't enjoy the experience on the Day, but thinks they're useful later on. Agrees with Mithalwen that frivolous voting and changing is suspicious. Agrees with Tom that Boro's vote changing is suspicious; compares it to situation with Form in a previous life.

#73: Suggests we all post our animals, but doesn't think we're likely to find clues from the narrations.

#76: Puts forward the idea that she does put forward ideas ( )... Clarifies that Fin has played in one game before. Asks for comments on her suggestion of revealing our animals. Takes issue with SpM classifying Tom as someone who has maintained a presence, since he'd only made one post.

#82: Says SpM's response to her has satisfied her somewhat.

#90: Votes for Boro, referencing the suspicions she voiced in #71. Says she'll have her eye on SpM as well.

Day Two
#140: Says morm really worries her. Voices suspicion because of his unusual behavior, but goes on to say it would be stupid for a wolf-morm to act like that. Also says Caran looks really bad, but doesn't want to voice too much suspicion until she's read through herself, so she's not swayed by public opinion.

#153: Says that if lmp is right that morm is suffering from werewolf-weariness, it might indicate morm is an ordo, as that affliction mainly affects ordos. Disagrees with SpM, who says she was the main protagonist behind Boro's lynching.

#155: Votes for morm, saying she's not entirely sure she'll be back, but says if she does come back she'll look for other suspects.

#164: Skirmish with morm, who had said she seemed to be grasping at any straw to find suspicion. Points out that the aim of the game is to suspect people. Responds to morm that if she twisted SpM's words the Day before, it was unintentional.

#170: Hesitant to voice suspicions on TGWBS, as she's helped get him lynched before only to find he's innocent (I can sympathize ) Still suspicious of morm. Also suspicious of Caran. Says Fea needs to be watched, and Mith's and lmp's lack of substance makes her uneasy. Also warns to watch out for Fin who may be a wolf trying to hide behind helpfulness.

#194: Responds to Mith, who said if she were a wolf she'd kill Sauce. Says Mith could be double-bluffing, or they could both be wolves. Tells SpM the timing of her vote for Boro was because she had to go to sleep.

#198: Says a wolvish SpM would be scary, but not that scary. Says her vote for morm stands, as she thinks an innocent Caran would be helpful to the village.

My thoughts: Her first post seems quite innocent. The only suspicious thing I see is that she was clearly thinking from the wolves' point of view - if I were a wolf, I'd fear the Changeling; even in situations where they're on the wolves' side, they have the potential to mess up their plans. Her suspicion of morm is understandable, as many of us feel he's been acting suspicious, and he was attacking her with rather weak points.

In short, I don't find Lommy all that suspicious. If she's managing not to look suspicious to me, does that mean she must be a wolf?

[Caranlondien]

Tom
Day One
#43: Says no one looks very suspicious yet, casts vote for Boro because of overt emphasis on his innocence.

Day Two
#124: Thinks Form's death may indicate the wolves are comfortable with their position in the village hierarchy. Says Caran needs looking at but doubts the wolves would be so obvious as to kill someone who voted for one of them.

#146: Says he's being swayed by the village's suspicion of Caran. Also suspects morm.

#149: Analyzes SpM, makes some points against him but in the end decides he's probably innocent.

#151: Says looking over SpM's posts, it hit him how little morm has been talking. Theorizes about morm changing his style because of his recent wolvish ancestor's success. Wants to watch him.

#168: Says he has abandoned his big-players conspiracy, thinks SpM is innocent and hasn't had time to look at others. Has to leave soon and will probably be voting for Caran or Spawn.

#174: Votes morm.

My thoughts: His shift to morm does look a little odd after saying he'd probably be voting for Caran or Spawn. He seems to explain it by saying that he didn't know morm wouldn't be returning for the Day. That doesn't really make sense to me, as I didn't want to vote for morm that Day for exactly the same reason - he wouldn't be back to explain himself.

This is little to go on, but it makes me nervous.

[mormegil]

Fea dear,

Will you please explain yourself?