Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Well, Roa being the EW wasn't that surprising. A funny detail, phantom voted for her on Day 1 saying that she's a Wizard... perhaps something that contributed to his early death.

As has been pointed out, Roa wanted to have Loki, Nogrod, Naria, Valier, Alc and Nilp for Wolves. I'm not sure whom of these were the original Wolves, but at least Nilp wasn't cursed until later, and my guess is that Valier was cursed on Night 3 because the sudden change in her behaviour. Therefore I looked into their posts from the previous Day to find out what made Roa pick them.

Valier said that her biggest suspects were Celuien, Caran, Kitanna, Naria and Alcarillo. Two proven innocents there, two villagers who at some point became Wolves and one unknown. That Day (Day 2) there were 2 Wolves + Nogrod.

Valier didn't think that Nogrod was a baddie and thought that even though Oddwen's vote was weird, it wasn't weird enough to lynch her. She thought that there were definitely two wolves voting for Nogrod on Day 2. She points out especially Eomer and Kitanna the others being Diamond, Lommy, Roa, morm, Kath and Caran.


On Day 3 Nilp analysed how the EW will make her picks saying that due to the lists about possible Cursees the EW will pick someone totally opposite, and later she has the chance to pull a bluff and choose from the list.

Nilp questioned Zali and voted for her. He said that there probably were one or more baddies in the Loki bandwagon. That would be Diamond, Caran, Fea, Nogrod, Lalaith, Valier, Kitanna or Zali. There indeed was at least two Wolves, but whether they were Wolves already on Day 1, I don't know.


I think there are two options why Valier and Nilp were cursed. Either Roa thought that they would make great Wolves or then they got something right and Roa couldn't afford to keep them on the Good side. Perhaps it was both.

All of the Wolves thus far have been those who are easily suspected for a reason or another or who were bound to cause some controversy (Loki, for example, being a newcomer). All the Wolves have been also the type that don't desire to take the lead of village matters (compare to morm's statement toDay: "I officially call the village back to order and we need to forward ourself with the business at hand." ).

Now there are three Wolves from yesterDay, plus one newly cursed. Anyone who has seemed innocent thus far might be a Wolf toDay. I wonder if the rest of the Wolves are those who fall into the same category as I mentioned above, or did Roa take someone completely different - morm, Fea or Eomer, perhaps (even though it says in the narration that Caran guarded Eomer, I'm not sure if it means that he's a proven innocent).

Our silent villagers are a bit of a problem, too. Right now I'm suspicious of Jenny and Glirdan and Diamond because I think they would fit with Roa's earlier picks. I'll take a look if I find any actual evidence for suspecting those three later when I have more time.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

This is difficult. I'm not going to be on again until after the deadline, if then. (Aaah, RL!) So I'm going to provide a brief analysis of the village, in the hopes that I may be somewhat helpful before my fairly likely demise as an accident or suicide toMorrow. (According to the new rules)

I agree with Lalaith, who said that Roa would pick a strong wolf because she was afraid her time was drawing to an end.

The short list of people who would be truly scary as wolves: Morm, Eomer, and Jenny. I'm going to cross Eomer off the list for now, as he was mentioned as the one protected last Night. I don't know if stuff like that mentioned in the narration has any weight, but I certainly wouldn't want him to be lynched, as I consider him the closest thing to a known innocent that we've got at this point.

Morm would be scary as a wolf because he's been so helpful all along, so he's someone the village has built some measure of trust in. He's smart, he's a leader, and he's definitely capable of persuasive posting.

Jenny would be scary as a wolf based upon her ancestors' behavior as documented in the Book of Lore. She's been unusually quiet for quite a while, which, in her case, may be a sign that she's not a wolf. On the other hand, she's always louder and more helpful than she's been this time around, even when it's only feigned helpfulness.

I'm also worried about Glirdan because he comes and goes so frequently. He doesn't seem to have the time to review the thread, and that worries me, too. His votes seem rushed and poorly-explained.

Oddwen seems to be doing a stellar job of slipping under the radar after her near-lynching earlier. I don't think she should be ignored--she has done some odd things.

Diamond To me, she still seems innocent and helpful.

Spawn hasn't been posting as frequently as her custom, but she's been helpful. For now, she's not giving off any bad vibes.

Sleepy is quieter than I am. And that's an accomplishment. I feel like I don't have any kind of feeling about him at all...And most people, by now, I have at least some sense of.

Fea is, as usual, really hard to figure out. She seems to be doing her best to help the village, and isn't giving off an overly evil vibe, but who knows...

Kath--Just due to her questioning me yesterDay, I'm inclined to think her innocent. I'm sure she's capable of being devious, but that's not the feeling I'm getting from her. She seemed to be genuinely looking for the truth. So in my book, she's innocent.

Kitanna is sneaky enough to be a wolf, but not, I believe, as active as her custom. I'm ok to let her slide--she seems generally innocent, but that's just a gut instinct, and mine are so often wrong.

Eonwe is another who I haven't been able to get a handle on. He's quiet (which is nothing against him--I am, too). So he's coming up as pretty much nothing on the radar.

I've given you all something to consider, hopefully.

I'm going to vote

++Morm

For the simple reason that he would be sneaky, smart, seemingly helpful, and incredibly dangerous as a wolf. He's a great player, and take that as a compliment, if you like. He may or may not be guilty, but I have very little to go on.

The inevitable response to this may be: Well, then! You shouldn't have voted at all!

But I honestly think that I could do worse harm to the village by not voting, than by voting.

[JennyHallu]

Agh...my head hurts...

And Pina coladas are overrated.

Anyway: Down to the business at hand. I've been drawing some questions this morning, and my response to that is "ABOUT TIME!!" This is the first time I've ever been innocent and not immediately assumed guilty. Good sign, I must be learning.

I am NOT a wolf. Thank goodness! I don't want to be a wolf! My ancestors show so much wolvery in their midst you'd almost think lycanthropy genetic, and I hang gladly onto my innocence this game. I have been rather unusually quiet this game, but it's been RL issues and it was my 21st...

Oh, and Diamond, if you want to see me post snoggered wait until Friday. A lot more likely to get snoggered when I don't have to go to work in the morning.

Off to read the thread and draw my own conclusions.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

O Caranlondien! I spoke against you and you did not retaliate; I considered you lupine and still you protected my life. Though you hear me not, I apologise deeply and sincerely.

Why did she protect me? Taking into account what Gurthang and the Seer have been doing recently, it was simply a matter of Caran considering me innocent and a likely wolf snack. Their activities are accounted for (right?) so I'm afraid, Azaelia, that I am certainly not a known innocent.

[Or should I have tried to ride that one a bit longer? ]

Nah, too honest. Anyway:

What of the kills? I'm surprised the wolves killed Caran. She strikes me as a far better wolf-pick from Roa than, say, Glirdan, Eonwe or Sleepy (they're too quiet), and so the wolves could probably go after Caran during the day. Of course, with the obvious thoughts of double-bluffing, maybe the Caran kill made most sense.

The Lommy kill surprises me more because she's usually a good suspicion-magnet.

It's a case of measuring the bluff/double-bluff o'meter. What would Roa do...

Oh, and....um....sorry Fea. Having said that, we've all got things right, you know. I reckon we should lynch Fea for excessive egoism.

[mormegil]

Fairly unusual shift in suspects today. Zali seems to have voted for me based on something over which I have no control. "Morm you're smart, helpful, and a good leader therefore we don't need you now and you must die" That's the way I'm taking it. I would think these are qualities that you want to have around currently as we are so desparate to get a wolf.

I think that Zali is back on her band wagon tatics, though this time she is initiating the band wagon. Let me explain. She read the earlier posts where Diamond, Lal and others think I would be a scary wolf, it's been so long that I can't tell you if that would be true though, and she thinks to herself 'oh there's somebody to go for' and begins the voting this time thinking that more people will vote for me. It's just a hybrid of her earlier suspicious behavior. Little has changed in her and I'm thinking that she's a misguided innocent who could be causing our doom or a fiendish wolf trying to attack me.

Diamond to answer about my position on Kath, if you wish I have well over 10 lore books with people very similar to us crossing paths multiple times and they always seem to end up suspecting each other. So I've resigned myself to always think her evil though seldom do much about it only when I have a really strong feeling that she is. Kath would agree with me on this point.

[Kitanna]

Kit, one of those Oddwen quotes is credited to me. I never voted for Lalaith.

Sorry about that. Didn't mean too.

I've had a chance to skim Diamond and Roa's posts. And I've come up with one theory.

Roa treated the four proven wolves differently.
Nogrod~ She attacked him a lot on Day Two and was successful in getting him lynched. A possible reason was she wanted to show she was innocent because not many EW would attack their wolves in such a way (at least that's what I thought at the time). Another reason was because she knew she could just make another one the next night.
Naria~ I don't think she really mentioned Naria. A post here or there maybe, but for the most part she left Naria alone.
Valier and Alcarillo~ As far as I can tell Roa was moderately involved with those two. She would leave them be at times and then she would attack or mention them at times.
Assuming Diamond is a wolf I'd say Roa took a stance with Diamond like she did with Nogrod. The two fought often, but as far as I know Roa never actually voted for Diamond. Perhaps she was trying to keep her wolf on her suspect list just incase Diamond died before her. She also mentioned Diamond as a possible EW.
The problem I see with my own theory is that Roa would have to be prepared if she died before Diamond, so why would she continually draw attention to her wolf without ever actually getting her lynched? After all drawing such attention to Diamond as a wolf without getting her lynched before herself is careless, I think. Roa is dead and she has left us with a good deal of posts to go through and a few fights with Diamond to sort out.
I think Diamond may be innocent. I can't see Roa being so vocal with a wolf as she was with Diamond because that would just leave her wolf out in the village as a suspicious person and an almost certain lynch subject. Diamond does fit the bill to be one of Roa's wolves, but I'm not so sure she is. When I have the time I will read through all of Diamond's posts, but for now I say she's most likely an innocent.

That said:
++ Oddwen

I said earlier Oddwen seems to have adopted Alcarillo's laying low after the first few days. Her lack of reasoning behind most of her posts puts me on edge and I don't want to see her fall of everyone's suspect list again. Her quiet nature and this completely flying under the radar would make her a good choice for Roa. That's my vote and I'm sticking by it.

[Lalaith]

I noticed one thing in Roa's posts yesterday, she said she thought that all original wolves were dead. Which makes me suspect all the more that Alcarillo was an original wolf.
This means that Zali and Oddwen, despite appearances to the contrary, are probably innocent. If my theory is correct, the early wolves are accounted for.
Zali and Oddwen were too suspicious to be Four or Five wolves, and too low-key to be the all-important Six wolf.
Spawn, my dear, with your brains and experience, you also fit the bill of a Six wolf.

[Oddwen]

Quote:
Oddwen=
Right now I'm looking at Celuien and Firefoot.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

More suspicions with no backing behind them.

I didn't say I suspected them, I said I was looking at them. And now looking back I don't even remember if it was supposed to be Celuien or Cailin.

Hmm. Three Wolves voted for me on Day 2.

Ugh. More later, I hope.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I see I missed Lalaith's post earlier. We seem to be thinking along the same lines.

On second thought, I'm not sure if Glirdan would have been such a good pick for Roa after all. He has some problems to attend to the discussions and I doubt the EW would want to lose a Wolf because of being absent. Glirdan's posts toDay have consisted mostly of lamenting and wondering ("My mother was the evil one!! Holy cow!!"). He promises to help in the Wolf hunting as much as he can, but he'll be gone the next Day (so he's a goner...). Glirdan agrees with Fea who said that Roa might very well have picked Di as one of her Wolves.

If Glirdan is going to be dead after tomorrow anyway, we don't probably have to worry about him now although his posts might be considered somewhat wolvish because he says so little about his own thoughts. He really has flown at least under my radar, but a Wolf or not, I'd like to hear more from him. Same goes for Eonwe and Sleepy.