Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Caran

Valier's attack on Roa seems to me like the sort of thing an EW-Roa would tell her to do. So Roa is by no means cleared in my mind.

That's something I was thinking about, too. About it being too risky for Roa, that might be true, but if Roa was the EW and we had tried to lynch her, the GW couldn't have challenged her right away, she would probably have got 5 Wolves the next Day which is a pretty good pack. Besides, yesterDay there were four Wolves. If the Wolves knew the EW's identity (I'm somewhat doubtful about that, though) there would have been three Wolf votes for saving Roa.

I'm still wary of Caran, too. She seems unnaturally careful with her statements.

I agree with Lalaith that the only EWish person on toDays Death List is Fea. It, however, doesn't mean that we shouldn't analyse everyone on or off the List if we just have time.

More later.


ps. Sorry for this, but I can't resist...

Originally Posted by Lalaith

It's Saturday night after all...Eurovision, too...cheers!

Hehe.

[Diamond18]

Fea Fea Bo-Bea Bonana-Fana-Fo-Fea

#22

Checking in, has nothing further to say.

#79

Nothing much screams evil about this post... obviously I’m not going to recap it, you have the link. But she talks about plans for lynching and wizard hunting.

#83

Here she continues the same line of thought, clarifying it. Seems to think it’ll get her lynched, which I find somewhat odd, actually, since it’s no more controversial than any other plan I’ve seen discussed.

#85

More on the same lines.

#87

Ditto.

#88

Ditto.

#96

Talks a bit about the possibilities of who could and could not be the wizard, based on RL. Doesn’t give any names, but reminds us about students and the like who won’t have time to be wizards. This could be construed as her directing wizard suspicion away from herself, as at that point she had been relatively quiet and cited RL reasons for not participating as much early on. Or, she could just be stating a perfectly reasonable theory. It’s rather hard to say, but I am leaning toward the latter, just because I haven’t seen much else that can be called wolfish or wizardly from her.

#101

Banter.

#135

Somewhat wearied sounding response to Eomer about wizards... I found it a bit odd since at this point at least she has’t come up with the most stupendous plan for finding wizards -- it does seem like she’s mostly talked about what we “should” be doing without much follow through.

#141

Short reply about the phantom....

#170

A vote for Loki with interesting reasons... but, I can’t say I fault them. So this isn’t pinging me as particularly wolfish, more as her honestly having “nobody better to attack right now.” Unless she’s just copying my reason for voting, but, haha, I think I flatter myself in that respect.

#226

Mainly replies to people, without a specific theme... but she does again stress the need to find the Evil Wizard. Not raising any of my suspicions, which almost makes me want to kick myself, since I’m generally paranoid and not finding someone suspicious is just wrong. This is reverse suspicion psychology, by the way -- I can’t find anything suspicious about these comments ergo I find them suspicious. Ha.

#230

Banter.

#282

More talking about the EW -- gee, and Morm thought Eomer was the one obsessed -- and denies that she meant to discount herself when she talked about the wizard not being a student. This is first post that she really talks about people she’s suspicious of. She votes Roa, citing the fact that she’s fascinated by Roa’s earlier defense of Loki and suspicion about her reasons. (Roa, of course, continues to not be able to understand this, as she cannot understand anything I say that has anything to do with Loki, either.)

#285

Defends her reasoning to Lommy.

#286

Another response, much the same, to Sleepy.

#384

Kind of a Zali-esque post, this one....

#435

Kind of a rushed post... so really, what can I say about it, besides that it feels rushed?

#442

Arrgh... is it Fea’s posts or the fact that it’s 3:30 in the morning that’s making it hard for me to form an opinion on them either way? This one is a lot of responses, more explaining of the usual things.

#445

Response to me about her votes... I get the reasoning, so....

#455

Nothing much to comment on here, either. This is getting seriously redundant, isn’t it? Each individual posts doesn’t ping anything in me, but when I look up at my analysis and see non-conclusion after non-conclusion, I get worried. Fea is... slippery.

#459

Response to Jenny, denies that banter held anything serious.

#490

A vote for Roa, same reasons as previous day.

#555

More talk about the EW and how much we need to find him, and makes a rather odd comment about the EW protecting the GW.

#564

Well, she said she had a mind numbing headache that was blocking all rational thought, so.... She keeps promising an evaluation, have we ever gotten it? I don’t think so.

#626

I have to admit, this continued voting for Roa does seem a bit odd, now that it’s the third time in a row. I can see her reasoning for finding Roa suspicious, but that she holds onto it day after day, while there are a lot of other suspicious characters running around, does feel off.

#659

Gives thoughts on Eomer and morm. But mostly just talks about her RL situation and such.

Question: Does Fea usually dwell so much on her RL? Nearly every post contains references to what she’s doing, did, and will be doing in RL. If this is usual for Fea, okay, but if not, I find it somewhat odd that when she’s rushed for time she spends much of her posts telling us how little time she has.

#719

Short post, nothing much to say about it. (What a surprise, eh?)

#734

Fea seems very forgiving about being killed. This could speak well for her innocence.

#741

Alright, last post, I think I’ll just skip ahead to my final summary:

In summary: Fea could be one of two things:

(A) Innocent, and just as she has said countless times, with a very active RL and not having enough time to spend on analysis and the like. She’s been helpful when she can, and there’s nothing particularly fishy in her banter.

(B) She’s wonderfully, wickedly, stupendously evil and duplicitous. She’s slippery as an eel, and every spare line is carefully calculated, even the most innocuous of banter. She has all the time in the world, and all this about headaches is a ruse, she’s laughing her socks off at all of us right now. Like this: Bwahahahahahaha!


So, what does Diamond believe? I’m leaning (A). Honestly, if Fea is as preternaturally wicked as option (B) I feel like laying down and letting her maul me to death. Right now.

Oh, and as a “bonus” for all you eager beavers out there, I can already tell you everything that Roa will say about this post. It’ll be a mix of “nonsense,” “clutter,” “in essence, saying nothing,” and “well, duh.”

That’s three villager profiles for the price of one, my friends!

And I’m so tired I’m past being tired, so I may hang around a little longer before passing out. Or not.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I'm not sure why Alcarillo's suspicions of Sauce combined with the fact that Sauce voted for him and the next Day Sauce was dead make Alcarillo look bad. At that point we didn't have a Seer, so if Alcarillo is a Wolf, he couldn't be afraid that a Seerish Sauce would have dreamed of him. As to posting in character, that's what many of us have done here. (Oh dreadful day, my husband is dead! How shall I manage with my children all by myself! )

But I'll go his posts through myself (no offense to those who have analysed him already).



#17 - Says that even though Cailín might have raised Eomer to be a lady-killer, he did not raise his son to be a murderer. He will stand by my family. Says the whole family of morm's "reeks of werewolvery". Doesn't like the fact that Diamond playfully predicted that Cailín will get lynched. Every defence and suspicion here is based on the relationships in the Village although if he's a Wolf 1) what would be a better way to smoothen reactins than to disguise them as family banter, or 2) he might not have been a Wolf yet

#33 - Di explains her prediction of Cailín and Alcarillo is comforted since someone approves his son (Eomer). He isn't as pleased with morm and Celuien. Says that he and Cailín do not allow black magic in their household. Says that lynching the GW (which isn't possible since he can't die by lynching) would make our situation harder and he'd prefer hunting the EW instead. Gurthang said that he'd like to lynch people who would not be obvious Seer choices, and he names Naria, Alcarillo, Azaelia, Lommy and Lalaith. Alcarillo's reaction was: "You want to lynch me?! I have to be careful of what I say from now on..."

Okay, this looks odd. Gurthang had five peope on his list and considering that, Alcarillo's reaction was pretty strong.

#124 - Says that if he were the GW, he would have chosen Azaelia, Oddwen, Roa, Diamond or Gurthang as Gifteds because they tend to last long "whether by being clever or by flying under the radar". He also says: "True that that's also great when playing a wolf, but I wouldn't lynch these folks yet (especially not myself!)." Reminds everyone about Fea's suggestion that the EW is someone who has enough time for it, so s/he's not probably a student.

Again, defence for himself only for appearing on a list with a bunch of other players.

#144 - Defends himself, family banter, suspects Sauce because of his lists of potential Wolves and because he fits in the criteria that Fea gave. "Couldn't he be the EW?" ~Alc

Uh, the dreaded polling... At least he gave some of his thoughts, but they seem to be based more on others' opinions than his own.

#159 - Votes for Sauce because of his "crazy theory ".

Well, this look a bit interesting. Why would he call his theory crazy and give a smiley? Perhaps he did know that it was likely be wrong and his vote wouldn't tell much. Still, this was in an early stage of voting, so his vote had value in it. Perhaps it was a way to clear oneself if we for some reason had lynched Sauce and found him innocent.

#222 - says that it looks like that he has some defending to do. And that's what he does. Almost the whole post. He also asks quiestions why he would have killed Sauce, and the post ends with village banter.

#353 - says that Zali wouldn't surely want to lynch a future family member. Agrees with Eomer and votes for Nogrod.

#371 - Laments phantom's death.

#394 - Asks people to slow down and says that the last post was just roleplaying. Tries to explain his defence after Sauce's death.

#622 - Says the GW knows much more than us, finds Roa's "rebellious behaviour" unsettling and votes for her.


Okay, I see that he really is defensive, and on that basis he looks somewhat suspicious right now.

[Diamond18]

If I obey the list, my vote toDay will be either given to Azaelia or Alcarillo. Problem is, I do not think that either of these people is the Evil Wizard... just possibly wolves. And are we, or are we not, looking for the Evil Wizard?

[Lalaith]

Diamond, I have to say that of all Fea's posts, it's 79 that troubles me the most. She agrees with Lommy that we shouldn't hunt for wolves on the basis that the EW might want them.
Now I disagree with this, it was how I for one homed in on Valier. And, my dear Diamond, you obviously disagree too because it's the basis for your earlier suspicion of me.
But even more worryingly, she wants to hunt out the GW because he's meant do die anyway - before he's had a chance to give us any gifteds. What's that all about?
Now this could just be Fea in maverick mode. There's part of me that wants to give her the benefit of the doubt, partly because like you I find her 734 post rather innocent. But there's another part of me that wonders whether I shouldn't just go for it.

I was also amazed by my status as fourth poster. (Btw, how do you do that, Diamond, is there a forum tool that gives individual post counts within a thread or have you manually counted us all?) I didn't think I'd been posting any more than I usually do. I can only surmise that many people have been posting considerably less. These include, Eomer, Fea, Lommy, Spawn and Jenny. Nearly all of whom would figure on my list of EW possibles. Hmmm....

Spawn, I'm swayed by your Alcarillo analysis and will have a look at him myself. I need to try to place him in the wolf creation programme. At the moment, I think we are looking at an original/Night Two wolf, two Night Four wolves and a Night Five (ie last night) wolf.

[Thinlómien]

I think I could scream! Scream. Yes, that is the word. I'm sorry, honourable Gurthang, but I think your list is h-o-r-r-i-b-l-e. I think we should get the EW, and soon. Our chances to get a wolf every day to stop them from increasing are minimal. We really should focus on the EW.

Of those on your list, the only one I really find suspicious is Alcarillo, and in my opinion he's no way the EW.

The only person on the list I think could be the EW is Fea. I'm not particularly suspicious of her, but I think I must vote her in order to obey the GW and concentrate on the EW-hunting which is the thing I find most important right now. I just fear I will be contributing to the death of an innocent person I don't even really suspect.

The person I feel could be the EW is Roa. Choosing Noggie as a wolf would clearly point at that direction, as I've said before. Besides, Wolfier's attack on her makes her suspicious.

Besides, I don't find this a sound argument at all:

Originally Posted by Roa

Beside, Valier nearly did get me lynched yesterday, something that I would never want to risk if I were the EW. I like risks, but not risks that draw specific attention onto me when I'm trying to hide.

1. I don't think it was by any way Valier's doing that you nearly got lynched yesterday. There was enough suspicion on you from other people to get youy lynched and I think no one was converted to suspect you by Valier. 2. Hmm... So you say. But are we discarding the possibility that Wolfier was not instructed by the EW-Roa to attack her? Maybe Valier made it up by herself.

Ill be back before lynchline.

Originally Posted by spawn

ps. Sorry for this, but I can't resist...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lalaith
It's Saturday night after all...Eurovision, too...cheers!
Hehe. : cool : ; ) : D

(See my sig below...)

edit: xed with Oddwen

[Oddwen]

Ergh...reading through, reading other analysises and sleeping on it has given me pretty much this. I don't think Zali is evil, I'm leaning toward Kitanna being innocent.
That leaves Alc and Fea (brilliant deduction!).

Alc, I think, is acting weird for Alc
Fea is acting pretty normal for Fea

I'm going to have to vote in about twenty minutes. I'm off to read again.

edit: x-ed with Lommy

[Lalaith]

Going by the analysis I did yesterday, likely Night Four wolves are: Caran, Jenny, Kath and Kitanna, possibly Fea.
Alc and Zali are very unlikely night four wolves. They could have been converted last night, I suppose, and I think Alc might be an original wolf.

As for the EW - he has selected Naria, Nogrod and Valier for his wolves. Hmm....these are all players I believe who entered the game via the Junior branch. Does that give us any clues to his/her identity?

[Oddwen]

Have to leave for the Day soon. I'm going to put my vote in for

++FEANOR

Of the four doooooom'd, I'm most inclined to think she's evil.

Oh, and

Originally Posted by Morm

I don't quite follow how this could be a hint

Fea's maundering...you like the word, you're the maundering mage, therefore Fea = You, if you're evil she is too...that's what I was thinking.

Good luck all.

[JennyHallu]

I'm checking in...but hubby's sick so I'll be checking out pretty quickly. I tend to agree with the people who think this is a horrendous list for finding an EW...none of these people strike me as that pro-active. Except for Fea, but I don't think she'd make that kind of commitment: I believe her when she says she's over-busy.

And as for the rest:

I know little about Alcarillo. But my initial reaction would be to doubt any wolvishness from him. These suspicions came up first after SPM's death: The deaths, however, are chosen by vote, from wolves who I firmly believe do not know eachother. I might be wrong, but why would the EW tell them who eachother are? As it is, the death of a wolf reveals no tracks to any other, and I think that's why we as a village seem so aimless. We keep looking for the usual relationships and signs, and it makes me so frustrated that I want to pound on my computer screen (bad idea) and scream THE USUAL SIGNS AREN'T THERE!!!! And if the kills are chosen by vote, then Alcarillo's daytime activities with SPM likely have no connection to his nighttime activity. Besides, if I were a wolf, the last thing I would do is kill someone associated with me, and I think Alcarillo is at least that savvy.

Zali looks awful in analysis. I don't like how she always gives herself an out, and is so apologetic. BUT: If she is a wolf, this could be a further argument for my belief that the wolves do not know eachother: If they did, why would she apologize to the village for her sacrifice of Nogrod? She'd know she was going to look good for it in the morning. I will most likely vote Zali.

And finally, I most certainly do not excuse Kitanna from my suspect list because of her sudden helpfulness yesterday. Yes, she went from the same behavior that's got us so worked up about Zali (non-commital apologetics) to long analytical posts, but what did she actually say? I remember no firm conclusions, no flat-out accusations or umm...anti-accusations? Just "well, he could be a wolf, or she could be a wolf..." Kitanna, my dear, excepting Gurthang, any of us could be a wolf. And I don't like that this analysis mode was such a sudden change, and no one else picked up on that. Sudden changes are what I most fear in this game.

So my vote will most likely be Zali, but I am definitely considering Kitanna. Fea really feels innocent to me, and Alc...that's just too obvious, and I think highly unlikely.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Diamond

Oh, and as a “bonus” for all you eager beavers out there, I can already tell you everything that Roa will say about this post. It’ll be a mix of “nonsense,” “clutter,” “in essence, saying nothing,” and “well, duh.”

Diamond, if my analysis of you yesterday upset you, get over it. We're supposed to suspect each other in this game and look for hints that will lead us to the baddies, and that's all I do. "Nonsense" is how I refer to any incharacter posting, in every single game I played. "Clutter" is for ideas and theories that aren't really thought through and just create confusion for anyone else trying to read it. And you did have several posts that stated the obvious and several posts that had lots of words but said nothing at all. If you disagree, then do so, but offer up reasons, not sarcasm. That doesn't help anyone. If you don't like being suspected, don't play the game.

Or are you just mad because I'm on to you?

And your analysis on Fea was interesting, and I'll forgive the lack of depth given the time at which it was done and the fact the Fea has said very little of depth.

Morm's analysis on Zali has me taking another look at her. She does look quite bad in analysis, as Jenny said. I'd like to hear what she has to say for herself though.

And Diamond I believe wanted an analysis on Lal. I'll do that as sson as I get back from church.