Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Roa_Aoife · 05-20-2006, 08:30 PM

Hm, interesting list....

As I said before, Alcarillo and Zali don't look particularly suspicious to me. The only cases against them so far seem kind of weak. Kitanna's case yesterday (courtesy Diamond, who I'm not totally inclined to trust at the moment) doesn't make her look terribly suspicious either. As for Fea- I just don't get her. She still hasn't answered me about her continual votes for me. I don't know if she has failed to notice, or if she's just trying to dodge the question, but it's confusing. I'd like someone else to analyze to analyze her, as I don't trust myself to be wholly objective.

mormegil · 05-20-2006, 09:37 PM

Post 104

Basically, she says that it's not fair that we single people as as being either unlikely or likely to be a gifted/wolf pick and she might be more likely because the GW might want an unlikely pick. It's a fairly innocuous first post.

Post 113

Clarification on time zones and how much time she has left.

Post 196

Okay this post really stands out to me as opposed to the previous posts. Here she states categorically that finding the EW is the most important. Then states that Loki is acting a bit odd but she doesn't think he's the EW. Goes on to give herself an escape route for her 'band wagon' vote saying that she doesn't like band wagons but thinks that Loki is guilty herself. This is the first of multiple escape routes that she leaves herself. Also if you don't think he's the EW but you think it most important to find the EW why not give us your idea of who the EW is?

Post 227

Another fairly odd post. Laments her decision to vote Loki as hers was the deciding vote. I'm never keen on people being overly sad about their vote choice, if you believe him guilty you believe him guilty. Then she talks about SpM being chosen to be killed. This could be taken either way so I'll leave it alone.

Post 349

Again apologizes for voting on the band wagon and gives her explination that her main suspects coincide with the top lynch candidate. She thinks Alcarillo's over defensiveness is proof that he's innocent because she acts the same way when innocent. Then give a great line of asking forgiveness of voting for Nogrod if he's innocent.

Post 382

Has some in character bemoaning of the phantom's death but then turns around and now she suspects Alcarillo of his in character over reaction. In her cross post comment she is beginning to suspect Eomer as well. It seems that she is either extremely easily influenced or intentionally influenced because as a wolf it's easier to blend in with the current theory than invent you own. She's beginning to look bad to me at this point.

Post 387

This is the notorious post that has already been analyzed ad nauseum and in real time this was the one that made me suspect her the most and now it only fortifies my feeling. Please reread and notice the escape route given and apology. It is note worthy to remember that Nilp found this extremely odd as well in this post.

Post 698

She immediately informs us that this will be a defense and states that "This goes back a bit, I know, but I thought I ought to set up a defence." After that she goes on to say that Alcarillo's in character stuff wasn't helpful, which I agree, but I also think Zali's has been a bit much and unhelpful also. I also get the impression that she feels a lot of pressure and is worried about things...both good signs of being a wolf.

Post 699

Post immediately after the last and states that she's innocent. Goes on to describe why she wouldn't be the worst lynch case but we could do better.

Post 700

A triple post telling us to not waste our votes on her because she is not the EW and it has to be obvious that she isn't. I would agree on that point but I don't agree that she's not a wolf.

Post 711

Quotes Caran quoting me and defends herself on the charge of voting for the top candidate. She says she learned that lesson but did it because she found them suspicious. She changes her pattern of voting and votes for Alcarillo against the 'list of doom' and thinks that we shouldn't forget him. I think this is a good thing too and could speak to her favor in that she has legitimate concerns over him and wants us to remember him or that she wants to appear such. I cannot determine how it's meant but good advice either way.

That's all but I think her post analysis paints a decent picture that she could be guilty, but there are a couple of points upon which she seems to be innocent.

This takes a long time. I have no idea how I will do this for somebody who posts more frequently.

Caranlondien · 05-20-2006, 10:14 PM

A good list on Gurthang's part. Good because I can see any of the choices being wolves, but also bad because I can see any of the choices being wolves.

Hey, maybe they're all wolves!

Due to a nasty headache, I'm a bit out of it right now, and shall be heading off to sleep. My initial thoughts concerning the members of The List:

Alcarillo - I haven't found him that suspicious so far, but he came under a great deal of suspicion and then seemed to be forgotten, so I'd see him as a good recent werewolf choice.

Azaelia - She's been on my radar (and everyone else's, for the most part) for a while now. Here's something that struck me, too:

Quote:

Originally Posted by mormegil

Also if you don't think he's the EW but you think it most important to find the EW why not give us your idea of who the EW is?

Feanor - I have nothing in my lorebooks on Feanor, and I don't have much of a gut feeling about her, so I'll have to go back and look at her posts when I wake up.

Kitanna - She was looking wolvish before, but yesterDay's posts from her have placated me. She seems genuine. Of course, she may have been turned last Night. Especially since she seemed, like Alcarillo, to have gotten through the period of intense suspicion early on.

I'd also like us to take a good look at morm. He's the sort who manages to post substantial arguments that influence the village and at the same time fly under the radar. Just thinking ahead

Gurthang · 05-20-2006, 10:15 PM

Fea, your continual confession of not having the time to be the Evil Wizard makes me nervous. It seems to be slightly overstated. Could be a valid reason, but I am nervous none the less. That said, I doubt I will vote for you, but I've heard others mention your name, and thought I'd see how the votes play out with you in the mix. Oh, and only vote for yourself if you're a wolf or the EW, okay?

(Yeah, like that'll work.

)

I agree with morm about Azaelia. I will likely vote for her toDay. She seems overly eager to defend herself against what people might accuse her of. Her precautionary defensiveness, if you will. I also think that her 'throw away vote' from yesterday was too blatant to be an innocent defiance. It really looks like she's trying to do something that a wolf just would not do, and therefore look innocent. I'll read through her posts before voting.

I personally have no suspicion of Kitanna. I saw her name pop up a few times. I'll probably also glance at her posts before voting.

Alcarillo; I was suspicious of him a couple days ago, and I still am slightly, but I have people above him on my suspect list.

Anyway, I'll see how it all plays out. I probably won't vote until close to the deadline. But now I need to sleep. Be back in the morning.

Kitanna · 05-20-2006, 10:56 PM

I don't have as much time as I did yesterday to go over the posts of the two on Gurthang's list. (excluding myself and Zali, since I already did her) but I will say I feel less suspicious of Zali today. After her defense of herself not being the EW, I think she may have been truthful about that. Her posts have been helpful, but few and far between and she has said she has various time issues which causes me to believe she is too busy to be the EW. She could still be a wolf, but I'm not as confindent as I was the other day about her being the EW.

As for Fea, well, I'll have to read over her posts before Day ends, hopefully I'll get the chance.

And Alcarillo, well I have suspicions of him, but I don't know if it's enough for me to vote for him.

Kitanna · 05-20-2006, 11:22 PM

Ok I lied, I decided I couldn't sleep until I at least started to look at Fea and Alcarillo:
DAY ONE
In Alcarillo's first two posts the only real help he gave outside of in character comments was:

Quote:

Alcarillo=
It would be much harder on us if we lynch the Good Wizard (no new gifteds, for one thing), so I would focus primarily on hunting down the Evil Wizard to stop the cursings.

He comments on Gurthang's Day one plan of finding one or both wizards. Up until this point Alcarillo has kept his comments in character.

Quote:

Fea=
And there are some that you will never understand regardless of anything pertaining to anything else. Mormegil, for instance: if he's a wolf, we're screwed; we'll never know... it would be mere whim that would ever have us catch the dear.

See what I mean? If you kill the players that you are completely uncertain that you'll ever be able to nail down in any situation, you'll simplify your own life.

I feel Fea falls into her own catergory of villagers you'll never really know.

Quote:

Alcarillo=
Well, I agree with my wife when she says she thinks some of these people would be chosen as Gifteds. If I were the GW, I would choose some of these villagers to be Gifteds, because they tend to last a while into the game, whether by being clever or by flying under the radar. True that that's also great when playing a wolf, but I wouldn't lynch these folks yet (especially not myself!).

Let's try to root out the EW first before he focus on the wolves. I thought I'd like to remind people of these criteria Feanor came up with:

Alcarillo just sort of jumps on what others have brought up before him. It's easy to hide behind innocents by latching onto their ideas. But given the fact this was posted on Day One, I can't really say how I feel about Alcarillo doing this.

Quote:

Alcarillo=
As to whom I am suspicious of, I have to say the Saucepan Man. He's been making all of these lists about potential werewolves. Maybe he's tryin' to throw us off the track of the EW. I dunno. And look at that EW criteria above! The Saucepan Man is a non-student, a very experienced player (the sort who would volunteer for a job as the wizard), and lives in a nice time-zone. Couldn't he be the EW?

That Night SpM turned up dead. This attack from Alcarillo worries me. It makes me doubt his guilt since SpM was killed. I'm not so sure I feel EW Alcarillo would be so bold.

DAY TWO

Quote:

Alcarillo=
Whatever people would say, there'd certainly be plenty of discussion about me. Why on earth would I want this attention?! You people know my ancestors' methods of survival: laying low, keeping quiet. This doesn't fit with me killing Saucie. I'm not a werewolf, and if I were, I wouldn't be as dumb as killing Saucie.

I may be mistaken (19 pages, so much confusion) but Alcarillo has been laying low for a while...

*pounds face into desk* My brain and eyes hurt, so I'm really going to go off to bed, since I stopped paying attention to what I was writing and while back. I'll just have to come back and finish this later.

Diamond18 · 05-20-2006, 11:53 PM

Earlier I said I intended to analyze Lalaith tonight, but now I wonder if I'd just be wasting my time since she is not on the List of Doom™ and will not be a lynch candidate toDay.

And yes, this is somewhat motivated by this:

Roa_Aoife 50
Diamond18 50
Valier 49
Lalaith 45

Fourth top poster of the game, there. The thing that worries me is that I still feel like she's been under the radar -- my radar anyway, since I look at that in surprise and can say it doesn't feel like I've read 45 Lalaith posts. I can only remember her Day 1 vote off the top of my head. Just don't forget about her....

So, as to who is on the list:

Alcarillo -- Maybe I'll do one, but I'm not thinking there's really all that much to analyze.

Azaelia -- Has been analyzed by me and Morm (and possibly others?) so I feel she has been sufficiently analyzed for the time being.

Feanor -- Mmm... 30 posts. If I do an analysis I will have to fortify myself with something unhealthy to eat or drink.

Kitanna -- I already analyzed her, and all her posts since my analysis have only served to lessen my suspicion. Either she's really, really devastatingly good at being a wolf, or she's innocent. Or she was just turned.

At any rate, it looks to me like I'll be analyzing Fea. Wish me luck.

mormegil · 05-21-2006, 01:04 AM

I'm not certain how much time I'll have until the dead line comes so I will vote with my gut. I analyzed Zali and think her likely to be guilty. Fea could very well be guilty. Kitanna I'm fairly convinced is currently innocent. But Alcarillo has been nagging me for a while now and I will go for him.

++Alcarillo

Feanor of the Peredhil · 05-20-2006, 09:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

As for Fea- I just don't get her. She still hasn't answered me about her continual votes for me. I don't know if she has failed to notice, or if she's just trying to dodge the question, but it's confusing.

Dodging artfully, as it were. I have my reasons for my votes and accusations, and they are good enough as far as reasons go, but perhaps it would be better for me to have gone the way of Lhuna and pulled out to accomodate life. Quite frankly, I'd rather leave my reasons for accusing and voting down to something as simple as that I was forced to vote quickly and without as much deliberation as I'd have liked at every occasion. I had to choose somebody and my day one suspicion of a Loki wolf chosen by a Roa wizard had not abated.

Right now I have no idea at all for whom to vote. If I have enough people ask me, heck, I'll vote for myself to make life easier all the way around.

05-20-2006, 08:30 PM	#1
Roa_Aoife Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it. Posts: 1,696	Hm, interesting list.... As I said before, Alcarillo and Zali don't look particularly suspicious to me. The only cases against them so far seem kind of weak. Kitanna's case yesterday (courtesy Diamond, who I'm not totally inclined to trust at the moment) doesn't make her look terribly suspicious either. As for Fea- I just don't get her. She still hasn't answered me about her continual votes for me. I don't know if she has failed to notice, or if she's just trying to dodge the question, but it's confusing. I'd like someone else to analyze to analyze her, as I don't trust myself to be wholly objective. __________________ We can't all be Roas* when it comes to analysing...* -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen

05-20-2006, 09:37 PM	#2
mormegil Maundering Mage Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Texas Posts: 4,651	Zali analysis Post 104 Basically, she says that it's not fair that we single people as as being either unlikely or likely to be a gifted/wolf pick and she might be more likely because the GW might want an unlikely pick. It's a fairly innocuous first post. Post 113 Clarification on time zones and how much time she has left. Post 196 Okay this post really stands out to me as opposed to the previous posts. Here she states categorically that finding the EW is the most important. Then states that Loki is acting a bit odd but she doesn't think he's the EW. Goes on to give herself an escape route for her 'band wagon' vote saying that she doesn't like band wagons but thinks that Loki is guilty herself. This is the first of multiple escape routes that she leaves herself. Also if you don't think he's the EW but you think it most important to find the EW why not give us your idea of who the EW is? Post 227 Another fairly odd post. Laments her decision to vote Loki as hers was the deciding vote. I'm never keen on people being overly sad about their vote choice, if you believe him guilty you believe him guilty. Then she talks about SpM being chosen to be killed. This could be taken either way so I'll leave it alone. Post 349 Again apologizes for voting on the band wagon and gives her explination that her main suspects coincide with the top lynch candidate. She thinks Alcarillo's over defensiveness is proof that he's innocent because she acts the same way when innocent. Then give a great line of asking forgiveness of voting for Nogrod if he's innocent. Post 382 Has some in character bemoaning of the phantom's death but then turns around and now she suspects Alcarillo of his in character over reaction. In her cross post comment she is beginning to suspect Eomer as well. It seems that she is either extremely easily influenced or intentionally influenced because as a wolf it's easier to blend in with the current theory than invent you own. She's beginning to look bad to me at this point. Post 387 This is the notorious post that has already been analyzed ad nauseum and in real time this was the one that made me suspect her the most and now it only fortifies my feeling. Please reread and notice the escape route given and apology. It is note worthy to remember that Nilp found this extremely odd as well in this post. Post 698 She immediately informs us that this will be a defense and states that "This goes back a bit, I know, but I thought I ought to set up a defence." After that she goes on to say that Alcarillo's in character stuff wasn't helpful, which I agree, but I also think Zali's has been a bit much and unhelpful also. I also get the impression that she feels a lot of pressure and is worried about things...both good signs of being a wolf. Post 699 Post immediately after the last and states that she's innocent. Goes on to describe why she wouldn't be the worst lynch case but we could do better. Post 700 A triple post telling us to not waste our votes on her because she is not the EW and it has to be obvious that she isn't. I would agree on that point but I don't agree that she's not a wolf. Post 711 Quotes Caran quoting me and defends herself on the charge of voting for the top candidate. She says she learned that lesson but did it because she found them suspicious. She changes her pattern of voting and votes for Alcarillo against the 'list of doom' and thinks that we shouldn't forget him. I think this is a good thing too and could speak to her favor in that she has legitimate concerns over him and wants us to remember him or that she wants to appear such. I cannot determine how it's meant but good advice either way. That's all but I think her post analysis paints a decent picture that she could be guilty, but there are a couple of points upon which she seems to be innocent. This takes a long time. I have no idea how I will do this for somebody who posts more frequently. __________________ “I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”

05-20-2006, 10:15 PM	#4
Gurthang Sword of Spirit Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Oh, I'm around. Posts: 1,401	Fea, your continual confession of not having the time to be the Evil Wizard makes me nervous. It seems to be slightly overstated. Could be a valid reason, but I am nervous none the less. That said, I doubt I will vote for you, but I've heard others mention your name, and thought I'd see how the votes play out with you in the mix. Oh, and only vote for yourself if you're a wolf or the EW, okay? (Yeah, like that'll work. ) I agree with morm about Azaelia. I will likely vote for her toDay. She seems overly eager to defend herself against what people might accuse her of. Her precautionary defensiveness, if you will. I also think that her 'throw away vote' from yesterday was too blatant to be an innocent defiance. It really looks like she's trying to do something that a wolf just would not do, and therefore look innocent. I'll read through her posts before voting. I personally have no suspicion of Kitanna. I saw her name pop up a few times. I'll probably also glance at her posts before voting. Alcarillo; I was suspicious of him a couple days ago, and I still am slightly, but I have people above him on my suspect list. Anyway, I'll see how it all plays out. I probably won't vote until close to the deadline. But now I need to sleep. Be back in the morning. __________________ I'm on a Mission from God.

05-20-2006, 10:56 PM	#5
Kitanna Child of the West Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Watching President Fillmore ride a unicorn Posts: 2,132	I don't have as much time as I did yesterday to go over the posts of the two on Gurthang's list. (excluding myself and Zali, since I already did her) but I will say I feel less suspicious of Zali today. After her defense of herself not being the EW, I think she may have been truthful about that. Her posts have been helpful, but few and far between and she has said she has various time issues which causes me to believe she is too busy to be the EW. She could still be a wolf, but I'm not as confindent as I was the other day about her being the EW. As for Fea, well, I'll have to read over her posts before Day ends, hopefully I'll get the chance. And Alcarillo, well I have suspicions of him, but I don't know if it's enough for me to vote for him. __________________ "Let us live so that when we come to die even the undertaker will be sorry." - Mark Twain

05-20-2006, 11:53 PM	#7
Diamond18 Eidolon of a Took Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: my own private fantasy world Posts: 3,460	Earlier I said I intended to analyze Lalaith tonight, but now I wonder if I'd just be wasting my time since she is not on the List of Doom™ and will not be a lynch candidate toDay. And yes, this is somewhat motivated by this: Roa_Aoife 50 Diamond18 50 Valier 49 Lalaith 45 Fourth top poster of the game, there. The thing that worries me is that I still feel like she's been under the radar -- my radar anyway, since I look at that in surprise and can say it doesn't feel like I've read 45 Lalaith posts. I can only remember her Day 1 vote off the top of my head. Just don't forget about her.... So, as to who is on the list: Alcarillo -- Maybe I'll do one, but I'm not thinking there's really all that much to analyze. Azaelia -- Has been analyzed by me and Morm (and possibly others?) so I feel she has been sufficiently analyzed for the time being. Feanor -- Mmm... 30 posts. If I do an analysis I will have to fortify myself with something unhealthy to eat or drink. Kitanna -- I already analyzed her, and all her posts since my analysis have only served to lessen my suspicion. Either she's really, really devastatingly good at being a wolf, or she's innocent. Or she was just turned. At any rate, it looks to me like I'll be analyzing Fea. Wish me luck. __________________ All shall be rather fond of me and suffer from mild depression.

05-21-2006, 01:04 AM	#8
mormegil Maundering Mage Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Texas Posts: 4,651	I'm not certain how much time I'll have until the dead line comes so I will vote with my gut. I analyzed Zali and think her likely to be guilty. Fea could very well be guilty. Kitanna I'm fairly convinced is currently innocent. But Alcarillo has been nagging me for a while now and I will go for him. ++Alcarillo __________________ “I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”