Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[Lalaith]

It’s quiet both on here, and in my RL working life, so I’ve been passing the time collating info that might be of use.
My little project is called Voting Patterns and Wolf Creation.
We know that the EW tried to turn Nilp, who has been getting one vote on each day. The question is, at what level of suspicion does a player become too likely a lynch candidate to be a useful wolf? I suppose it depends not just on the number of votes but also on the number of other players saying they suspect the person. Anyway, here are the numbers:

Day One:
Nogrod 6,
Eomer 1,
Lommy 4,
Loki 8,
Nilp 1,
Oddwen 2,
SPM 2,
Kath 1,
Alcarillo 1,
Lhuna 1

Would Noggie have been made a wolf by the EW after this? Very unlikely. So he must surely have been a Day One wolf. Naria posted a lot (for her) on Day One. She also voted for Nogrod. What does that mean? Was she an original, or a Night Two/Three wolf? I’m now turning to the idea of the latter, which means a Day One wolf still walks among us….I would guess the EW would not have turned Lommy on Night Two, either.

Day Two:
Valier – 1 Lalaith – 2, Nogrod – 11, Roa – 2, Fea – 1, Oddwen – 6, Nilp – 1

Incidently, two wolves (if Naria was not the wolf created on Night Three) voted for Oddwen. Probably a coincidence, of course. But nonetheless, with so much suspicion on her, Oddwen would be an unlikely choice for wolfing on Night Three. And probably Roa and I fall in that category too.

Day Three:
Eomer-3, Azaelia-4, Alcarillo-2, Fea-1, Roa-2, Valier-3, Celuien-5

Now this makes Zali, Eomer and Valier (and possibly also Alc and Roa) unlikely Night Four wolves.

Of course, the person in question might already have been a wolf when they started garnering suspicion. (vis a vis Nogrod)