Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[Diamond18]

For my own curiosity I'd like to do a post on all things Fea -- but I fear I won't be doing it anytime soon, as she has 23 posts in Days 1-3 (and a couple more toDay) and such a task tonight would surely be the end of my sanity. What little a week of Werewolf has left me. Perhaps I will wait till she is actually a sanctioned lynch candidate.

I see that Valier is the favorite to die so far, and I don't really agree with that. Val strikes me as an innocent who got a bit sloppy because as an Ordo she has nothing much to lose and wasn't thinking things through enough. My lorebooks don't tell me anything about evil ancestors of hers and how they might have behaved, so I'm a little lost on that score. I could do a post by post analysis but that would more than unhinge me, it would leave me gasping for breath on the floor. Sorry Val. But I count 37 posts Day 1-3 and a few more for toDay so far.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Caran

All right, this looks like I'm jumping on a bandwagon, but my internet connection was down and I haven't really had time to explain my thinking...

++Celuien

I don't really feel good about voting for any of the choices. I was leaning towards Zali, but I just don't want to vote for her when she's not here, for obvious reasons. And I had missed the points on Celuien, too. Sorry if you're innocent, Celuien!

Okay in post 593 Caran brought this back up and it alarmed me. It always alarms me when people decide them must vote for one of the top candidates. It screams that they don't want to stand out. If you really don't think Celuien guilty then don't vote for her. Does this make sense? It appears that she's so concerned with making herself stand out that she makes it a point to fit it with the main stream.

Unfortunately the village is still so large that it makes it difficult to think about everybody. I sense that most of us are focusing one 2 to 3 people each. But to reread this entire thread would be crazy. This is so frustrating because of the aspect of people potentially changing from one day to the next.

Diamond you've left yourself unanalyzeable due to your size and frequency of posts . I think you have some valid points about Kitanna and I'm glad you are looking at her because I know that I have not been able to. Regarding Zali you are bringing up points that I have felt for a while. I'm not sure how I feel about Kitanna being guilty but it could be a potential.

Valier everything fits so well that you would have been converted two nights ago. Your drastic behavior shift and your posts that where you kept persiting the points about the phantom and your post today.

[Gurthang]

I just had a good sized post destroyed; about 10 quotes or so from our four.

I'll look about getting those quotes tomorrow, but basically here's what I found:

Eomer - Could be evil, but he seems sincere to me. If he is bad, he's pulling a great bluff.

Valier - Her sudden switch after Night 3 is what really troubles me. She jumped to four new suspects, none of whom she had been suspicious of before, and then went all out for one of them. I believe her about her insticts being good, but I wouldn't put that much trust in them. And then there was this weird confession post...

Azaelia - mostly what I see as suspicious is her vote for Eomer yesterday. Yet that's about the only thing.

Roa - I found her pretty consistant the first few days. Between yesterday and toDay, though, she did change. She said before last Night that Valier was a misguided innocent. ToDay she said she'd be looking at her and then voted for her.

So for me it's between Valier and Roa. I'm leaning towards Valier, but I'll see what developes. I'm going to bed, I'll be back in the morning to vote.