Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Thinlómien · 05-15-2006, 09:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dancing spawn of ungoliant

Oddwen was the one to give the second vote for Lalaith because some hunches she had and because of relationship issues. She also said that she's voting for Lalaith because of something I said. I would have appreciated if Oddwen could have given a reason to her vote, but to me it looks that she decided to go with some ready theory without giving her own thoughts at all. I think I'll add Oddwen to my suspicion list.

I agree her vote was too random. I didn't like it at all that she just popped in, said hello, had a pause, voted and left. Though I wonder if a wolf'd be that careless. Knowing she's an experienced player I still include the possibility that she's double-bluffing.

Roa_Aoife · 05-15-2006, 10:07 AM

Since Nogrod told me to go back and look at his posts, I did

Nogrod analysis

Day 1
1st post - Nonsense, insinuates Loki is lying (2nd post of the day)
2nd - More suspicion of Loki, says his very claim is suspicious, says Loki is overly defensive and acting strangely, "I hope you [Loki] rot in hell pretty soon," doesn't think a wizard would pick Loki
3rd - Says "If SPM had taken on a new identity, it would be you…"
4th - Agrees with phantom, says that the wizards wouldn't pick high profile players
5th - complaint about times
6th - Accuses Thin of being overheated and wolfish
7th - Looks at people who haven't really spoken, vote update, says Nilp's vote for him had no grounds
8th - Updates voting list, shows himself in the lead, "Great!"
9th - Says Lommy seems quite happy to be rid of him
10th - says Celuien's version of the vote may be correct
11th - Another vote update
12th - Says we should look closely at Loki over the following days, seems quite certain that Loki was picked by the EW, votes Loki
13th - response to Loki, says his being pressed for time seems convenient
14th - Looks specifically at the people who have voted for him
15th - Another vote update
16th - Another vote update

Day 2
1st - Agrees with Celuien, can't trust anyone, agrees with Diamond, "sad" Loki had to go so soon, admits to bandwagoning to save himself, "They [his reasons for voting Loki] were believable, but wrong" States again that the EW should pick people who are not vocal, but are the lay low kind, points out that we can't track mutual posting.
2nd - Says he'll go back and look at Day 1, thinks that wizards are the clue of the game, again says that the wizards would choose under the radar types, is still unsure about Loki being the double-choice, thinks that last Night's choice would be a higher profile player, thinks that SPM was eliminated just because he's a good player
3rd- agrees with Jenny that the EW may pick a player known to have finesse at werewolf, i.e. Roa and Jenny, still thinks that the first picks would be under the radar types, comes up with lists of likely choices
4th - Encourages Roa to read up on his posts (which I did), claims tiff with Loki was typical Day 1 bantering, admits to changing his style

Analysis to follow

Kath · 05-15-2006, 10:12 AM

Too much discussion of bluffs here I feel, especially this early in the game. There are just too many people to consider the possibility of trickery by each of them. In fact, there is too much discussion full stop. 7 pages people! It's Day 2!

Ahem, Lalaith? Haven't seen anything that would make me feel suspicious of her, though admittedly I've only done rather a rushed reading so far.

SPM's death wasn't really that odd. Every player here knows he's a formidable opponent. What we must also remember is that even if there was dissention in the ranks, two of the wolves had to vote SPM in order to kill him not one. (This is if I've got the rules right!) So we know that, eventually, two people wanted him dead. This suggests to me that the wolves are people who think him too dangerous to be left alive, and have either had bad experiences with him or just generally don't want to face him.

This leads me to suspect:
Nogrod - the poor thing's ancestors have certainly had bad experiences with SPM, and he himself has mentioned that past. Perhaps that should exonerate him as he brought it up, but I think not.

Aside from that the other person I have some queries over is Oddwen. It has been a very long time since I've played with her and this may well be her usual style of playing, but I don't think so. I'd like to see a lot more reasoning from her. I will probably not vote for her toDay as I would like to see if she plays a bit more substantially tomorrow, but if she doesn't then she is a top suspect.

Oh, speaking of which, Lommy and her chart. Well it's a nice idea, but you haven't taken circumstances into account. Someone may have a suspect who they believe to be the EW, but if there are two bandwaggons growing and one is against them, they are more likely to join the bandwaggon against the other person than vote for their suspect. Some flaws in there, but generally sound. I'm a lot less supicious of her than I was yesterDay. She's been analysing and making some good contributions.

And that's it for now I'm afraid. Except, where's Lhuna? Doesn't she usually appear around the same time as Nilp?

05-15-2006, 10:07 AM	#2
Roa_Aoife Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it. Posts: 1,696	Since Nogrod told me to go back and look at his posts, I did Nogrod analysis Day 1 1st post - Nonsense, insinuates Loki is lying (2nd post of the day) 2nd - More suspicion of Loki, says his very claim is suspicious, says Loki is overly defensive and acting strangely, "I hope you [Loki] rot in hell pretty soon," doesn't think a wizard would pick Loki 3rd - Says "If SPM had taken on a new identity, it would be you…" 4th - Agrees with phantom, says that the wizards wouldn't pick high profile players 5th - complaint about times 6th - Accuses Thin of being overheated and wolfish 7th - Looks at people who haven't really spoken, vote update, says Nilp's vote for him had no grounds 8th - Updates voting list, shows himself in the lead, "Great!" 9th - Says Lommy seems quite happy to be rid of him 10th - says Celuien's version of the vote may be correct 11th - Another vote update 12th - Says we should look closely at Loki over the following days, seems quite certain that Loki was picked by the EW, votes Loki 13th - response to Loki, says his being pressed for time seems convenient 14th - Looks specifically at the people who have voted for him 15th - Another vote update 16th - Another vote update Day 2 1st - Agrees with Celuien, can't trust anyone, agrees with Diamond, "sad" Loki had to go so soon, admits to bandwagoning to save himself, "They [his reasons for voting Loki] were believable, but wrong" States again that the EW should pick people who are not vocal, but are the lay low kind, points out that we can't track mutual posting. 2nd - Says he'll go back and look at Day 1, thinks that wizards are the clue of the game, again says that the wizards would choose under the radar types, is still unsure about Loki being the double-choice, thinks that last Night's choice would be a higher profile player, thinks that SPM was eliminated just because he's a good player 3rd- agrees with Jenny that the EW may pick a player known to have finesse at werewolf, i.e. Roa and Jenny, still thinks that the first picks would be under the radar types, comes up with lists of likely choices 4th - Encourages Roa to read up on his posts (which I did), claims tiff with Loki was typical Day 1 bantering, admits to changing his style Analysis to follow __________________ We can't all be Roas* when it comes to analysing...* -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen

05-15-2006, 10:12 AM	#3
Kath Everlasting Whiteness Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Perusing the laminated book of dreams Posts: 4,533	Too much discussion of bluffs here I feel, especially this early in the game. There are just too many people to consider the possibility of trickery by each of them. In fact, there is too much discussion full stop. 7 pages people! It's Day 2! Ahem, Lalaith? Haven't seen anything that would make me feel suspicious of her, though admittedly I've only done rather a rushed reading so far. SPM's death wasn't really that odd. Every player here knows he's a formidable opponent. What we must also remember is that even if there was dissention in the ranks, two of the wolves had to vote SPM in order to kill him not one. (This is if I've got the rules right!) So we know that, eventually, two people wanted him dead. This suggests to me that the wolves are people who think him too dangerous to be left alive, and have either had bad experiences with him or just generally don't want to face him. This leads me to suspect: Nogrod - the poor thing's ancestors have certainly had bad experiences with SPM, and he himself has mentioned that past. Perhaps that should exonerate him as he brought it up, but I think not. Aside from that the other person I have some queries over is Oddwen. It has been a very long time since I've played with her and this may well be her usual style of playing, but I don't think so. I'd like to see a lot more reasoning from her. I will probably not vote for her toDay as I would like to see if she plays a bit more substantially tomorrow, but if she doesn't then she is a top suspect. Oh, speaking of which, Lommy and her chart. Well it's a nice idea, but you haven't taken circumstances into account. Someone may have a suspect who they believe to be the EW, but if there are two bandwaggons growing and one is against them, they are more likely to join the bandwaggon against the other person than vote for their suspect. Some flaws in there, but generally sound. I'm a lot less supicious of her than I was yesterDay. She's been analysing and making some good contributions. And that's it for now I'm afraid. Except, where's Lhuna? Doesn't she usually appear around the same time as Nilp? __________________ “If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.”