Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Oddwen

Never heard *that* before.

Always happy to state the obvious.

What you say is actually very much to the point. All wolves and the wizard are working individually. The wolves will as likely accuse each other as anyone else. If I were a wolf now, I'd probably play no differently than I do now, for why would I?

Therefore, the only likely way to find out the wolves is to ask yourself the question: if I were the EW, who would I have chosen to be my minions?

If we assume Loki was indeed speaking the truth -and I'm starting to think he did- who would you team up with him? Surely not another controversional person likely to be a loudmouth. Loki and Nogrod or Roa -for example- seems like a destructive choice.

Concerning Lalaith and her canon fodder theory... I don't find it as logical as some. The Evil Wizard will -I think- be more concerned with creating as many decent wolves as fast as possible than prolonging his own life using eccentric tactics. The more days pass, the more likely it is he will be scried and challenged.

(Oh, and, if the evil wizard is Fea, these would have been her wolves: Loki, Lalaith and Lhunardawen. I shall support this theory for now, as it seems to be no less rational or irrational than anything we come up with.)

[JennyHallu]

Originally Posted by Noggie

Quote:
He will also go for people with either totally consistent or totally inconsistent behavior: either people who act the same no matter their role, or people who are crazed loose cannons and cannot ever be predicted.
This is very helpful indeed. So: about anyone...

I meant this to exclude anyone who behaves differently when a wolf or gifted than otherwise. I suppose I would mean Roa would be a bad choice, because when innocent she is vocal and controversial, and when wolvish or gifted, she is much more careful. OOC- Congratulations on your engagement, by the way, Roa...

[Lalaith]

It's an interesting theory, but not one I'm sure gets us anywhere. In fact, I think it makes it harder to find people that we do trust since it casts suspicion on anyone who helps uncover the wolves.

Celuien, isn't this a case of "shoot the messenger"? Yes it will be harder to find people to trust but that is not my fault - it's what the new rules involve, I'm afraid. I've thought a lot about the possibilities in this game and I've come to the conclusion that there are even more chances than usual for the evil side to subvert logic. So while I usually like to combine deduction and instinct, I've realised that particularly in the early stages of this game, I'm going to have to rely more on instinct than I usually do, and less on logic.
The only thing in our favour is that the wolves don't know who to trust either.

Oh and here's that quote you wanted, Spawn, it's from Diamond's post 210:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fea
I also agree with whomever it was that mentioned searching out the wizards. It gives us a legitimate project for day one. It will put them off guard. Sure, it would mean sacrificing the good wizard in all probability, but since the good wizard lives to die in such a way, I won't feel too badly about it. Consider: who would expect that an entire village would gang up on their wizards? Surely we would want to keep our good wizard around. Blah blah pros and cons blah blah. With the pressure of an entire village actively seeking, the evil wizard will have to be REALLY good to avoid screwing up.


Not much more to say except that I agree with this and am of basically the same mind. The GW lives to be martyred in order to cease the creation of Wolves. Nuff said.

As for the music thing, I was just having a bit of fun. I AM meant to be frivolous, you know...

[mormegil]

I find it odd also that Lalaith is garnering so much suspicion. All she has said and done seems rather logical and helpful. I think her 'Cannon Fodder' theory on Day 1 was to help explain a way in which Loki would be innocent.

Does anybody else find it problematic that the majority of us are saying things like..."If I were the EW I would select ...." We are telling the EW who we think he/she would pick thus giving them the opportunity to select others whom we do not think they would choose. The same goes for selecting the EW, of course LMP wouldn't select the phantom or Eomer...or would he knowing that we would think he wouldn't. See what I mean about over thinking this?

I would really like to analyze Diamond more as well as Thinlomien, however they are the top posters and as a mayor it is my job to fill vacant slots therefore I have interviews to do all day long (RL) and will be able to poke in and out but not read past post overly but some people are sticking out to me.

Alcarillo: was extremely defensive without much suspicion cast on him. It seems as if he almost didn't vote to kill SpM last night but was over ruled by his comrades and now is anxious to exonerate himself first thing.

Diamond: with all the banter it's hard to find what she is saying. Her post coming out and addressing everything I said today I found interesting and attention grabbing.

Celuien: Sorry daughter but WW don't respect familial ties, and what better shield to hide behind than family?

Glirdan: Just isn't sitting right

Nogrod: Different behavior, a bit less rash and more cautious.

Thinlo: Wants to be very vocal and helpful but hasn't really given much by actual suspicion. She gives a lot of wide sweeping statments that cover a lot of people. Behavior that I would find consistent with lycanthropy.

There are others that I am watching and others I am currently trusting, but that is another problem. If we all trust the phantom, which I do, it would be easy to turn him into a wolf and we would all continue that trust for a while. I believe the seer wouldn't dream of him early, I wouldn't because it would be a waste to dream of him so early.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by mormegil

I find it odd also that Lalaith is garnering so much suspicion. All she has said and done seems rather logical and helpful. I think her 'Cannon Fodder' theory on Day 1 was to help explain a way in which Loki would be innocent.

I don't find it odd that she's suspected, but I find it odd that she's bandwagoned. Am I not correct if I say anyone else hasn't been voted yet?

Thinlo: Wants to be very vocal ...

Morm, you are misdiagnosing me. I don't want to be vocal; I just am and can't do anything about it.

edit: marked the quote properly

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Do two votes make a bandwagon? I see your point, though. Quite a few people has voiced suspicion of her, so for early voters Lalaith might be the "safe vote" of the Day. I still find Lalaith suspicious and she might get my vote toDay, but I'd like to hear other people's theories of other villagers, too.

Oddwen was the one to give the second vote for Lalaith because some hunches she had and because of relationship issues. She also said that she's voting for Lalaith because of something I said. I would have appreciated if Oddwen could have given a reason to her vote, but to me it looks that she decided to go with some ready theory without giving her own thoughts at all. I think I'll add Oddwen to my suspicion list.

edit: Forgot this: Valier got a vote from Nilp, so Lalaith isn't the only one who has votes.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by dancing spawn of ungoliant

Oddwen was the one to give the second vote for Lalaith because some hunches she had and because of relationship issues. She also said that she's voting for Lalaith because of something I said. I would have appreciated if Oddwen could have given a reason to her vote, but to me it looks that she decided to go with some ready theory without giving her own thoughts at all. I think I'll add Oddwen to my suspicion list.

I agree her vote was too random. I didn't like it at all that she just popped in, said hello, had a pause, voted and left. Though I wonder if a wolf'd be that careless. Knowing she's an experienced player I still include the possibility that she's double-bluffing.

[Roa_Aoife]

Since Nogrod told me to go back and look at his posts, I did

Nogrod analysis

Day 1
1st post - Nonsense, insinuates Loki is lying (2nd post of the day)
2nd - More suspicion of Loki, says his very claim is suspicious, says Loki is overly defensive and acting strangely, "I hope you [Loki] rot in hell pretty soon," doesn't think a wizard would pick Loki
3rd - Says "If SPM had taken on a new identity, it would be you…"
4th - Agrees with phantom, says that the wizards wouldn't pick high profile players
5th - complaint about times
6th - Accuses Thin of being overheated and wolfish
7th - Looks at people who haven't really spoken, vote update, says Nilp's vote for him had no grounds
8th - Updates voting list, shows himself in the lead, "Great!"
9th - Says Lommy seems quite happy to be rid of him
10th - says Celuien's version of the vote may be correct
11th - Another vote update
12th - Says we should look closely at Loki over the following days, seems quite certain that Loki was picked by the EW, votes Loki
13th - response to Loki, says his being pressed for time seems convenient
14th - Looks specifically at the people who have voted for him
15th - Another vote update
16th - Another vote update

Day 2
1st - Agrees with Celuien, can't trust anyone, agrees with Diamond, "sad" Loki had to go so soon, admits to bandwagoning to save himself, "They [his reasons for voting Loki] were believable, but wrong" States again that the EW should pick people who are not vocal, but are the lay low kind, points out that we can't track mutual posting.
2nd - Says he'll go back and look at Day 1, thinks that wizards are the clue of the game, again says that the wizards would choose under the radar types, is still unsure about Loki being the double-choice, thinks that last Night's choice would be a higher profile player, thinks that SPM was eliminated just because he's a good player
3rd- agrees with Jenny that the EW may pick a player known to have finesse at werewolf, i.e. Roa and Jenny, still thinks that the first picks would be under the radar types, comes up with lists of likely choices
4th - Encourages Roa to read up on his posts (which I did), claims tiff with Loki was typical Day 1 bantering, admits to changing his style

Analysis to follow

[Kath]

Too much discussion of bluffs here I feel, especially this early in the game. There are just too many people to consider the possibility of trickery by each of them. In fact, there is too much discussion full stop. 7 pages people! It's Day 2!

Ahem, Lalaith? Haven't seen anything that would make me feel suspicious of her, though admittedly I've only done rather a rushed reading so far.

SPM's death wasn't really that odd. Every player here knows he's a formidable opponent. What we must also remember is that even if there was dissention in the ranks, two of the wolves had to vote SPM in order to kill him not one. (This is if I've got the rules right!) So we know that, eventually, two people wanted him dead. This suggests to me that the wolves are people who think him too dangerous to be left alive, and have either had bad experiences with him or just generally don't want to face him.

This leads me to suspect:
Nogrod - the poor thing's ancestors have certainly had bad experiences with SPM, and he himself has mentioned that past. Perhaps that should exonerate him as he brought it up, but I think not.

Aside from that the other person I have some queries over is Oddwen. It has been a very long time since I've played with her and this may well be her usual style of playing, but I don't think so. I'd like to see a lot more reasoning from her. I will probably not vote for her toDay as I would like to see if she plays a bit more substantially tomorrow, but if she doesn't then she is a top suspect.

Oh, speaking of which, Lommy and her chart. Well it's a nice idea, but you haven't taken circumstances into account. Someone may have a suspect who they believe to be the EW, but if there are two bandwaggons growing and one is against them, they are more likely to join the bandwaggon against the other person than vote for their suspect. Some flaws in there, but generally sound. I'm a lot less supicious of her than I was yesterDay. She's been analysing and making some good contributions.

And that's it for now I'm afraid. Except, where's Lhuna? Doesn't she usually appear around the same time as Nilp?

[Caranlondien]

Whew, finally caught up.

First, I now believe Loki's story. Despite the sarcastic personality, Loki was proven innocent at the end, and I see no reason for lies. No one else has come forward as the true former wolf.

ToDay I am beginning to suspect my little sister Lommy. I agree with Mormegil's thoughts:

Thinlo: Wants to be very vocal and helpful but hasn't really given much by actual suspicion. She gives a lot of wide sweeping statments that cover a lot of people. Behavior that I would find consistent with lycanthropy.

However, I tend to suspect Nogrod even more than Lommy. He's tried to explain his suspicious behavior yesterday as done in order to survive Day 1. But that sounds like a wolvish cover-up to me. His change in behavior toDay also looks wolvish. Nogrod is my top suspect right now.

I'm unsure about Lalaith, and I guess I ought to go back over her posts (So much talking... ) But before she became a topic of discussion, I hadn't found her particularly suspicious-looking.

Finally, I don't personally find Oddwen that odd (a misnomer!). That is, I don't think her behavior would be that likely from a wolf. She gave little reasoning for her early vote, and I think if she were a wolf, she'd know better than to do that.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Roa and Diamond

[Lalaith]

Roa, Cara: perhaps the reason the changed wolf didn't come forward is that s/he didn't want to die. Because as a known innocent, s/he would have been a prime candidate for eating in the night.
And no, it's not me.

Which brings me to my Saucie theory, which I wanted to wait on a while. It's more unlikely than the cannon-fodder one so I will stress it's only a theory - but maybe he was the changed wolf. And that's why he was killed. Of course, it would depend on how much the EW is allowed to guide his wolves.

[Thinlómien]

I feel the village is dividing into two camps. I predict that there will be a battle for votes between Nogrod and Lalaith today. Oddwen and I may receive votes as well. If I had to choose between Nog and Lal, I'd vote Nogrod. Lalaith feels quite innocent to me.

Most people think Nogrod might be a wolf. I think he could even be the Evil Wizard.

Kath, I agree my plan has faults. I think it could be used as a general guideline. Or at least I'm using it as such. If there's a person I'm pretty sure that she's a wolf, I will of course vote her rather than a random EW suspect.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Roa, you speak much sense to me regarding Nogrod. And, because the wolves do not know each other and wouldn't make such damning accusations (probably) against a genuinely suspicious character, I think it speaks in your favour.

I think I will be voting for him again. Oh, and Lommy, my vote from nowhere? Um...yeah, it was pretty much a random Day One vote. I could have voted for pretty much anyone. It wasn't as if I was railing against Fea and then changed my vote to Nogrod out of nowhere!

It kinda goes against my earlier theory of SPM being correct, but....whatever.

F....f....fe.... ahem. It's you, right? Just a guess.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by me

but it's possible the pick was extremely careful and strategic, in which case I want to watch for people doing certain things today, because there are certain things someone does if they make a kill for a certain reason.

Well, in going over the posts, I'm not seeing much of the behavior I had my eyes open for, so I'm guessing Sauce's murder has simple reasoning behind it.

A couple of reasons to kill Sauce-
1) My willingness to trust him (not just mine, but the village in general). More than one person yesterday suggested that Sauce would not make a good wolf (especially early), and that was very true. So why let someone live who is intelligent, innocent, and likely to be trusted?
2) With all the talk about Sauce being a likely Seer dream, perhaps the Wolves (or EW) was hoping to render the Seer's Night 2 dream worthless. You see, if the Seer had dreamed of Sauce on Night 2 and then the Wolves killed him, there might as well have been no dream at all. If that was the motivation behind the killing, I was probably a candidate as well. Unless, of course, the EW wants to make me a Wolf late- after the Seer has dreamed of me. Just in case that is his strategy, I would like to suggest to the Seer that you wait to dream of me for a good while. You don't want me to become a Wolf after I'm trusted! Now, naturally if I'm turned into a Wolf I will regret giving this advice because my loyalty will then be to the EW and his cause, but for now (and I hope, until death) my loyalty is to the village and the GW.

GW, if you really want to find out about me early on (in case I'm the EW, which I hope you see as unlikely) and you also want to keep tabs on me until death (in case the EW tries to turn me), I suppose you could make me your Hunter. That way, if I'm cursed you'll know, plus the curse wouldn't create a Phantom-wolf, it would only create a Phantom-ungifted. But only do that if you have a Wolf target to give me. I don't want to be responsible for accidentally killing the Seer with my Hunter gift.

Also, only do that if you don't mind losing a gifted. I doubt the EW and Wolves plan on allowing me to live more than a couple days.

Originally Posted by My mom

After yesterDay, I should think the EW would have chosen someone inconspicuous last Night. Numbers, not the composition of the team, are probably most important to him at the moment.

I agree. Later on, if he survives that long, the EW will round out his pack by selecting some louder, lynchable sorts, but probably not right now.

Originally Posted by Lal

perhaps the reason the changed wolf didn't come forward is that s/he didn't want to die. Because as a known innocent, s/he would have been a prime candidate for eating in the night.
And no, it's not me.

Which brings me to my Saucie theory, which I wanted to wait on a while. It's more unlikely than the cannon-fodder one so I will stress it's only a theory - but maybe he was the changed wolf. And that's why he was killed.

That was one idea that I had. I agree that it's unlikely, but it's still a good thought.

All right. Here's a list of a few suspects. It's not random, but at the same time you shouldn't put much faith in it. The only way any of us are going to get more than one or two things right at this point is by luck.

GW: Roa or Eomer
EW: Nilp or Firefoot
Wolves: Diamond, Kitanna, Celuien, or Glirdan
Seer: like I'd tell
Totally Innocent: morm, Gurthang, Spawn

Oh, and one more thing. If some people continue to be super quiet (3 posts or less per day, and not saying much) I think we should just lynch them. They could be a hiding EW or Wolf. Worst case scenario, they are an unhelpful innocent who gives us nothing to base suspicions on. Those sorts should be slain.

Later on today, I'll provide some helpful information for the GW and future gifteds.

[Diamond18]

Oy vey. Took me 50 minutes to catch up. But I'm not complaining. Really.

I'm going to have to vote, and I'm at a loss. So many darn suspects.

Oh well, as I'm pondering that I'll amuse myself with the usual behavior that nobody really likes:

Diamond, you weren't on my list of wolves because I can see you getting lynched very early. Sorry, but that's the truth.

No worries. I thought that's what it was, but people sometimes surprise me, so I didn't want to assume. Oh and yes, I am loud and troublesome. This is what got Loki killed. So if it gets me killed I can't really complain, can I?

Consulting my lorebooks, this is what they tell me:

Originally Posted by Lorebooks

Honestly, Diamond, people are going to want to lynch you no matter what. It's a thing. Don't question it -- some people are just lynch materil no matter what they do, and you're it. If you're quiet, they'll vote for you. If you banter, they'll vote for you. If you analyze and theorize, they'll vote for you. So do whatever you feel like whenever you feel like doing it. After all, the minute people stop suspecting you, you're dog food.

Thank you, lorebooks, you speak truths. Sorry about the fire.

Roa: I'm satisfied with your answers to my suspicions. (Yes, I had suspicions, who would have thought amongst all that banter that I actually said something Roa found worth responding to!) Anyway, my theory about you and Loki was based mostly on stuff that happend in those halcyon days prior to dear Elempi's death, when he got into that fight with tp. I didn't mean to insult you in implying you as a Wizard would pick a Wolf from your friends. I won't tell you that I wouldn't do such a thing. A bit of straying from cold hard logic can always be good for throwing the logic-sniffers off the trail.

All that said, I don't think Gurthang cared to deny anything when I mentioned his name as my other consideration. Kind of interesting. I don't think he's a Wizard, because.... I just don't. See Fea's RL reasoning. So I pretty much think, now, that whoever was the friend certainly isn't going to step forward after I made it sound all suspicious. No matter if I was on to something or totally off base. Because who wants to say, "Yes, Diamond, I am that suspicious person you speak of."

Lommy: Babbling, eh? I think this is a compliment coming fom you. But no worries, I have a history of such labeling, I've learned to embrace it.


Drrrrrrrrrrr. Blah. It's time to vote, and I still haven't even fully woken up yet. Curses.


+ + NOGROD


*gasp*

I'm sorry, hubby. There are lots of people now pinging my suspicions, but frankly, you did worry me yesterDay. I let it slide because, well, you're my hubby and I couldn't very well off you before Loki. But even though his reactions were over defensive, that whole "banter" thing you had going on seemed... off. You don't usually banter and accuse randomly like that. And a faux paus though it was, posting fifteen minutes early was no indication of wolfishness. From anyone else, such accusations I might not think twice about. But it's you, and you feel different.

There's always the "Why would a wolf/wizard draw such attention to himself?" thing. But Noggie should know more than anyone that him being quiet is suspicious. So this feels like overcompensation. Trying a little too hard to maintain the high profile, without the usual genuine content

I'm sorry if you're innocent. I'll never be able to face my daughters again if you're lynched and innocent. But then, if you're a wolf (which is seemingly quite likely) what else can a mother do besides protect her young, even from their father.....?

[Roa_Aoife]

Nogrod claimed that his tiff with Loki was just day one banter, but his very first post of the day, while it had the dressings of nonsense, was actually an accusation. Naturally, a wolf learning the identity of a former teammate and an obvious innocent would act as quickly as possible to throw doubt on him, which is exactly what Nogrod did. Nogrod started off the day by trying to muddy up the waters rather than trying to clear him. If he doubted Loki so much, why did he never ask for the "true" convert to come forward? I think it's because Nogrod really believed Loki, and thus wanted him dead.
I also found several contradictions. In his effort to make Loki doubtful, Nogrod said that he didn't believe Loki would be a good choice; however, later on he admits that high-profile players (the opposite of Loki) would likely be avoided by the wizards. The there was this:

I hope you [Loki] rot in hell pretty soon

I'm sad that Loki had to go.

Then, Nogrod makes a point of suspecting the people who voted for him- one very wolfish tactic, to be sure. He also seems quite eager to have us believe that the wizards wouldn't pick someone who was loud, but would rather pick under the radar type players. He expresses this point three times in 4 posts. It seems quite clearly an attempt to throw suspicion away from him. I'd also like to point out that Nogrod was never mentioned on SPM's list of possible wolf candidates, making SPM the safest kill for him of the night.

Also, Day 1 saw very little of Nogrod's usual theorizing and discussion, and while he had quite a few posts, they were of little substance. According to my lorebook, that's something that various Nogrod's of the past have frowned upon as suspicious. And really, while vote updates are a common thing from the Nogrods of the past, that many of them in succession with nothing else is highly unlike the Nogrods of the past.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Cailín

(Oh, and, if the evil wizard is Fea, these would have been her wolves: Loki, Lalaith and Lhunardawen. I shall support this theory for now, as it seems to be no less rational or irrational than anything we come up with.)

Hang on, that's not true at all. I'd have loved to be the wizard and anybody that knows me would know it, but what with all of my [shepherdessing], I just haven't the time for those sorts of shenanigans. I want no wolves near my sheep, thanks much.

However, this is why it's that much more wrong: If I was EW, I wouldn't have picked them. Well... not two of them. Loki, yes. Lalaith and Lhuna, no. I'd have picked Loki, the phantom, and JennyHallu. One newbie to be taken for granted, one "yeah freaking right", and one just subtle enough to make a right evil wolf. That and Jen's been evil so often that I wouldn't want to break with tradition.

Next night would be morm, next would be Cailin. Actually, I might have tossed Nilp into the mix. I like my variety, wouldn't you know.

Still, I'm dead curious as to why you picked Lalaith and Lhuna for me and why you support the theory of Fea=EW.

Next tangent: I liked the cannon fodder idea.

Originally Posted by Aimè

F....f....fe.... ahem. It's you, right? Just a guess. [img]ubb/wink.gif[/img]

Keep guessing.

Here's my afternoon schedule: stop procrastinating and write a story due at 2:15; go to class; work; don't get back until the Day is over.

So I have to vote for somebody.

Since Roa denies being "the friend," I'm now fascinated by her strong defense of Loki.

Why would anybody be defending anybody unless they had a reason? If her reason isn't that they're the friends, what is it? Since I don't have any more time to ponder, I'm going to go with that reasoning. She defended somebody very staunchly and that's a stupid idea in such an unpredictable village.

++ROA

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

So I have to vote for somebody.

Since Roa denies being "the friend," I'm now fascinated by her strong defense of Loki.

Why would anybody be defending anybody unless they had a reason? If her reason isn't that they're the friends, what is it? Since I don't have any more time to ponder, I'm going to go with that reasoning. She defended somebody very staunchly and that's a stupid idea in such an unpredictable village.

Maybe the reson could simply be that she didn't believe him to be a baddie?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Maybe the reson could simply be that she didn't believe him to be a baddie?

I'm not discounting the possibility. Still, I had to vote for somebody and she was as good a choice as any, given the circumstances.

[Roa_Aoife]

Fea, I thought the reasons I gave for my defense of Loki were quite good. If you disagree, you're welcome to do so, but I'd like an explanation. I'd also like to point out that I was not the only one who deemed Loki innocent. At least Morm and Firefoot believed the same as I, and there may have been others, but I'm not really aware of them at the moment. As for me being just as good a choice as any, there are plenty of suspcions being thrown around today, some of which have actually good backings behind them. Maybe you should check a bit more carefully before you accuse.

And as a notice to everyone, please do not just throw away your votes randomly. We are beyond day one, and nothing has really changed except for one player switching from good to evil. We have 8 pages of evidence. randomness is not needed. Please give more thought to your votes.

[Sleepy Ranger]

Since Roa denies being "the friend," I'm now fascinated by her strong defense of Loki.

Why would anybody be defending anybody unless they had a reason? If her reason isn't that they're the friends, what is it? Since I don't have any more time to ponder, I'm going to go with that reasoning. She defended somebody very staunchly and that's a stupid idea in such an unpredictable village.

But didn't Loki die innocent? As from what I know of Roa she likes to support the one who seems to be under the most fire. And anywho, past experiences tell me never trust a Fea... Now then, unfortunately I haven't been able to read through the entire thread (Evil, evil, evil illness! and also random distractions) but anyway since I don't think I'll be able to get anything reasonable formed before the deadline (or rather my bed-time) -

++Feanor

Edit: Cross-posted with Thinlomien.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Sleepy Ranger

But didn't Loki die innocent? As from what I know of Roa she likes to support the one who seems to be under the most fire.

Yes he did, but nobody (okay, almost nobody) knew his innocence before his death. And my lorebooks are woefully inadequate in the Roa section. The index reads: "Roa - see "Villagers You Don't Really Know."

Okay... I'm really going to stop procrastinating now. Paper... due at 2:15... must write it...

*tears self away from village*

[Valier]

There has been lots of talk today so far....I see I have a vote....from Nilp! I will not defend myself on this because looking at crossposting is no way to find a wolf! Now I did find it odd that SPM got killed last night.I would have thought the wolves would want to keep him around, seeing as he gets lots of suspicion...I have many thoughts on who I think could be baddies, but not much to back them up with yet...I will post my thoughts anyways since my gut seems to be right alot of the time, even if noone notices till after I'm dead...

Baddies?

Celuien
Caranlondien
Spawn
Lhuna
Glirdan
Kitanna
Firefoot
Alcarillo
Cailin
Oddwen
Azaelia
Lalaith
Naria
Eonwe
Gurthang


Goodies?

Diamond
Roa
Lommy
Nogrod
Kath
Sleepy
Mormegil
Valier
Feanor
Phantom
Jenny
Eomer
Nilp

Ok I know there is alot of Baddies, but some I could not put down as Goodies yet so they stay there for now....My biggest suspects for toDay would be....Celuien, Caran, Kitanna, Naria, Alcarillo .Not that I have any concrete evidence yet, but I go with what I feel and toDay I thought of these....I will be around for the rest of the day, so I will have more time to read through and post some more.

[JennyHallu]

Roa, you speak much sense. I have also been wondering about Nogrod. It also irked me that his voting tallies were so far off...it is unlike him to be so careless.

[Thinlómien]

I must go now.

++Nogrod

I fear he's the evil wizard. He might be a wolf as well.

x-posted with Jenny

[Valier]

One thing I just noticed......Was the GW not supposed to pick another gifted last night? I see on the tally that there is only one gifted....Did I miss something?

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Roa, Cara: perhaps the reason the changed wolf didn't come forward is that s/he didn't want to die. Because as a known innocent, s/he would have been a prime candidate for eating in the night.

I have considered that, and it's possible. But if it is the case, then they're not doing what's best for the village. The wolves are going to kill an innocent every night, and even worse, they might kill a gifted. Letting us know if our reasoning is going in the wrong direction would help us, and it would only lead to what's going to happen anyway: the death of an innocent.

The voting thus far: (and please correct me if I'm wrong)

1. Nilp --> Valier (Valier 1)
2. Celuien --> Lalaith (Valier 1, Lalaith 1)
3. Oddwen --> Lalaith (Valier 1, Lalaith 2)
4. Diamond --> Nogrod (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 1)
5. Feanor --> Roa (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 1, Roa 1)
6. Sleepy --> Feanor (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 1, Roa 1, Feanor 1)
7. Lommy --> Nogrod (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 2, Roa 1, Feanor 1)