Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Celuien

If I operate under the assumption that SPM was killed for getting something right, this looks bad for Azaelia, Oddwen, Alcarillo, Roa, Diamond or Gurthang. I wonder, though, if Alcarillo would have agreed to the wolvish plan of attack on Saucy as it’s a little too risky a position to put him in since he voted for SPM yesterday as well as being voted for by SPM.

Thanks for the review -- I'd just finished going through everything and writing up my long post, so I had a little inward groan at the thought of going back to make an overview of SpM's posts.

Now, as to your conclusion. This is possible -- but consider that not only Alcarillo has reason to be wary of killing SpM. Everyone he mentions has reason. My lorebook (a bit singed but otherwise none the worse for wear) notes that often people are killed to divert suspicion onto those they were erroneously pointing fingers at. In fact, an ancestor of mine was killed for a somewhat simliar reason, prior to her death she pointed fingers at three people in particular, none of whom turned out guilty.

Of coures, due to this we now have the opportunity for double bluffing. I.E. "People will think it would be too bold for the wolves on this list to kill him, so let's kill him."

*considers chucking lorebooks again, abstains this time*

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Diamond18

Now, as to your conclusion. This is possible -- but consider that not only Alcarillo has reason to be wary of killing SpM. Everyone he mentions has reason. My lorebook (a bit singed but otherwise none the worse for wear) notes that often people are killed to divert suspicion onto those they were erroneously pointing fingers at. In fact, an ancestor of mine was killed for a somewhat simliar reason, prior to her death she pointed fingers at three people in particular, none of whom turned out guilty.

Of coures, due to this we now have the opportunity for double bluffing. I.E. "People will think it would be too bold for the wolves on this list to kill him, so let's kill him."

Point taken. My werewolf lorebooks speak of an ancestor of mine, however, who once discounted a villager's guilt for the reason that the nighttime kill would have brought too much suspicion upon that villager. She was wrong. The villager did turn out to be lupine. Bluff and double bluff can be very effective.

I haven't looked over my late husband's suspects yet. Honestly, there were so many that the thought of analysing all of them is painful. But my intuition says that you, Cailin and Gurthang are innocent. The others I'm unsure of. I fear I'm going to have to trudge off and take a closer look at everyone.

Now I don't mean to sound accusatory, but is it possible that this father in-law could possilby have taken the life of his son in-law? I mean, he never liked SpM, so how do we know that he didn't go after SpM out of pure spite?

I don't know, Glirdy. While my father often said he'd like to kill my poor husband, I don't think there's much evidence for his being a wolf. Of course, there isn't much evidence of anything from yesterday. How like a politician. But I'd rather that we didn't start throwing random accusations at him for his personal dislike of my marriage. I'd prefer not to lose any more of my family for the present.

EDIT: Crossed with Nogrod and Glirdan

[Glirdan]

I don't know, Glirdy. While my father often said he'd like to kill my poor husband, I don't think there's much evidence for his being a wolf. Of course, there isn't much evidence of anything from yesterday. How like a politician. But I'd rather that we didn't start throwing random accusations at him for his personal dislike of my marriage. I'd prefer not to lose any more of my family for the present.

Like I said, I didn't want to sound accusatory but we must look at all possible options.

Btw, crossposted in my other post with those above me

[Alcarillo]

It looks like I have some defending to do.

If I were a wolf (which I'm not), and I killed the Saucepan Man, what good would that do me? If people said "Oh, it's too risky, Alc would never do it" and my fiendish plot succeeded, there'd be no guaranteeing I'd be thought of as innocent for long when anybody can be turned into a wolf any night. And then there'd be the risk of people saying "Alc's double bluffing. He's a wolf! ++Alc!". And then I'd be dead as a door-nail. I could either gain temporary innocence or die really quick. Why would I risk it when I can just lay low and survive far longer?

Whatever people would say, there'd certainly be plenty of discussion about me. Why on earth would I want this attention?! You people know my ancestors' methods of survival: laying low, keeping quiet. This doesn't fit with me killing Saucie. I'm not a werewolf, and if I were, I wouldn't be as dumb as killing Saucie.

And besides, Saucie always had a beer at hand whenever I returned to port, and he was most understanding of my son's courtship with Kitanna, having had a rocky time with in-laws himself.

[mormegil]

Okay, first sorry about yesterday's inactivity. Hopefully it won't happen again.

Second, I cannot for the life of me understand why you killed of Loki. He screamed innocence to me and I do believe he was the double pick of the night. I do not know this for certain but his claims rang true in my ears. I actually didn't find him offensive or rude and think that many of you who went after him should feel slightly ashamed at yourselfs for ganging up on him. I haven't decided yet if I believe the EW is in the group of votes for him or not. Lalaith's 'cannon fodder' idea makes great sense and that is why I consider that to be a possibility.

Third, I plea to slow down!!! 200 posts! That's just ridiculous. There is no way a sane person can keep up with that. For the next day or two we should try and keep a small check on our post and not go overboard in size or quantity.

Fourth, the phantom is innocent! I can sense it in him and there are others that I believe are innocent such as Eomer, Fea, Firefoot, Spawn, Roa and others that I can't think of currently. That was yesterday and today could change that.

Fifth, GW please get your pick in quickly and everybody WAKE UP and check periodically to see if you are a new gifted. We cannot afford to loose dreams or protections.

Finally Celuien, Diamond and Glirdan are looking rather suspicious today though admittedly I am posting this after reading only a couple of today's posts. But all of their reactions seem markedly odd. Though I am sorry for my poor daughter and granddaughters for their loss. Even though I didn't always agree with the chap he treated my family well enough.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Second, I cannot for the life of me understand why you killed of Loki.

I cannot speak for everyone, but it seems to me most of them explained their votes pretty clearly anyway. As for myself, I have already explained my logic ad nauseum. Which must mean that my logic is a foreign language to you. Which is fair enough, I suppose. But, as you may be able to tell from my location line, I like to try understanding other people's logic even if it does not match my own and isn't something I really approve of.

I actually didn't find him offensive or rude and think that many of you who went after him should feel slightly ashamed at yourselfs for ganging up on him.

Well I don't. And I never will. I could go on to explain just why I did find him offensive and rude, complete with quotes and such, but this would be pointless because he's dead and he can't defend himself without breaking WW rules. The important thing is that I meant what I said when I said how I felt. You may not agree with me, but asking me to be ashamed of my opinions and conclusions because they didn't mesh with yours is a bit presumptuous.

Third, I plea to slow down!!! 200 posts! That's just ridiculous. There is no way a sane person can keep up with that. For the next day or two we should try and keep a small check on our post and not go overboard in size or quantity.

Well I both agree and don't agree with that. For instance, right now things are rather quiet and I wish they were a bit brisker, because this is when I have time and leisure -- a nice Sunday evening when I don't have any committments or restraints and I can devote my time and thoughts to posting. Yet, I know that while I am sleeping and then away at the "battledore shop" and other various tasks tomorrow is when people are going to start nattering away in earnest and I won't have any chance of catching up before Day-end, forcing me to vote early which I dislike doing.

However, this is my problem and I'm not going to ask people to cramp their style to please me. I'll deal. I hope you'll deal too. There are still close to 30 people around, you ought to have known from the start that this would be a very, very loud village.

Fourth, the phantom is innocent!

Well, finally we agree on something. He seems pretty clean. For now.

Fifth, GW please get your pick in quickly and everybody WAKE UP and check periodically to see if you are a new gifted. We cannot afford to loose dreams or protections.

I'm not sure I get this comment. Do you have some sort of knowledge of gifteds shirking their duty? Or would you just like us to think that? Hmmmmmmm?

there are others that I believe are innocent such as Eomer, Fea, Firefoot, Spawn, Roa and others that I can't think of currently. That was yesterday and today could change that.

Finally Celuien, Diamond and Glirdan are looking rather suspicious today though admittedly I am posting this after reading only a couple of today's posts. But all of their reactions seem markedly odd.

Sorry, I had to shuffle your comments for easier reply. Anway, I have thought that you (er, your ancestors) generally have good instincts for werecreatures, so I'll keep this in mind, but I'm not sure that in this case I can agree about your feelings on Spawn, Roa, Celuien, and Glirdan. I know it's pointless to say what I think about my categorization, as it pertains to me, but what it tells me about the other players isn't pointless, if you take my meaning. That is, I'm an innocent and I'm suspect, so I can't really trust your view of the others as much as I might otherwise.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by morm

Fifth, GW please get your pick in quickly and everybody WAKE UP and check periodically to see if you are a new gifted. We cannot afford to loose dreams or protections.

Originally Posted by Diamond

I'm not sure I get this comment. Do you have some sort of knowledge of gifteds shirking their duty? Or would you just like us to think that? Hmmmmmmm?

To answer your question, Diamond, in the narrative it says that the Seer didn't dream last night because of timing issues. Here's what it says-

Originally Posted by lmp

The good wizard gave serious thought to whom to scry. It took a few hours to come to a conclusion. The scry was made. The villager scried was ordinary. The good wizard gifted the villager to be the seer. The only problem was that by the time this occurred, it was mere minutes before dawn. The seer didn't dream.

Can you say "oops"?

[Thinlómien]

Hullo all!

I think lynching SPM was an act of pure cowardice. The wolves/wolf decided that they didn't want him their enemy.

The more I think about the wizard-lynching plan, the more it makes sense.

I made a plan, which describes how we should treat people in my opinion. (See the attachment.)

The idea is that primary enemies (word "suspect") used in the chart should be voted first, if there are none, then secondary and then tertiary.

From now on I will be using feminine pronouns when speaking about an unknown person, fg. the EW.

Now I'm off to check if someone's left her candy unguarded...

edit: xed with phantom and D18

[Caranlondien]

Alas for poor SPM and his family! Not to mention how our village is now down a barkeep. Regarding the wolves' choice, on the one hand, he was garnering suspicion, which makes his death look odd. But given the fact he was innocent, I can't say I'm surprised. SPM would have been dangerous to the EW and the wolves were he ever to become a gifted.

As for lynching Loki yesterDay, what Diamond has already said about that goes for me also. On a personal level, I'm sorry for having lynched an innocent newbie. I think doing so is something to be avoided, in general. However, someone has to be lynched on Day 1! We never have much to go on, and thus I voted for the person I honestly found most suspicious given our very limited evidence. This time, those criteria happened to point to our unfortunate leech-collector. I apologize to Loki, but I stand by my vote. Day 1 is pretty darn random, and our chances were slim of not lynching an innocent.

I don't think we can expect to find many clues from what SPM said yesterDay. The werewolves couldn't have thought him a gifted, because we didn't have any yet. And even if they thought he was the GW, the only thing the GW knew yesterDay was the identity of one innocent who had for a very brief time been a wolf. I tend to think he was killed for his reputation as someone you don't want on the team opposite yours.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

I agree with what Caranlondien had to say about voting for Loki. I feel especially bad about voting for him, as mine was the decisive one...and so figuratively pulled the stool from under him (or would have, had not the dashing Phantom done so for me *ducks a battledore* ).

All that said, I think it is possible that Saucey was killed simply because he has, according to my lorebook, a fairly good track record as being an astute, experienced village member. In other words, he's smart and experienced, which alone could be a major factor in why he was killed. Too dangerous to keep around. If this is a frame-up, it's a fairly subtle one...though I think that we didn't give the wolves and EW too much to go on yesterDay--day ones, I suspect, are hard all around. So he could have been a "oh, hey, who do we kill tonight..." "Oh! I know! Let's get Sauce!"

Edit: Cross-posted with Fea
And also to say that I probably won't be back on until an hour or less before voting time. It's unfortunate, but it's the way it's going to be until Thursday at the latest (assuming, of course, that I survive that long). So many apologies in advance, and I request that you all bear with me.

[Firefoot]

Saucepan will certainly be missed. And Loki... even if I really didn't like his attitude, I didn't think he was guilty. But what's done is done.

Mostly I just want to say now that I'm extremely tired, and most of my posting will come in the last few hours of the day (I may check in with some comments in eight hours or so, though). I can only agree with Morm that trying to keep up with all this is completely nuts. It's all kind of blurry and no way am I going to be able to come up with anything comprehensible right now.