Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Yours truly

Well, the GW or the Seer, once we get one, could find that out pretty easily. At this point I think it's better to concentrate on those who we find suspicious of wolvery or wicked wizardry than to those who are potential threats if turned a wolf.

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

I disagree.

My actual advice wasn't to kill people on whim (or Morm would be dead because I hold grudges for my ancestors ) but to search for wizards!

Isn't that agreeing then?

Anyway...

Originally Posted by Jenny

I have had a few thoughts: In the first post, Loki claimed to be the reclaimed wolf, but SPM, you didn't even mention that in your "lists", making up three possible wolf teams that did not include Loki at all. That struck me as odd, if not a little careless coming from you.

I had to go back to look if that's really true. Sauce actually said this,

Originally Posted by Sauce

And, much as I would like to see the back of him for his antagonistic behaviour and insufferable gloating, I doubt that Loki would have been a great choice for the Evil Wizard. His reputation, even before this Day, makes him a quite likely candidate for lynching. Then again, one motive for claiming to be the de-Werewolved villager would be to divert attention from himself. If that was his intention, then it has backfired. Nevertheless, I will disegard him for today, based on my reasoning above.

but I would have been interested to hear a bit more about this from him than that he's just disregarding Loki because he doesn't believe that the EW would have picked him.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

A terrifying idea. Phantom the EW? I'd rather not think about it. The plan is still a good one and the things the EW should fear still hold true.

I'm not saying that he's the EW, but I'd rather consider all options than blindly trust him. Besides, why would he make flawed theories and lie? I've heard enough of his ancestors not to be too swift to declare him innocent.

[Cailín]

I was rather enjoying being single. Still... who might it be?

Why, Fea, who else but Mormegil? He has been a widow for too long, which is making him very peevish and with all these things going on, someone should keep an eye on him. And you two have so much in common. What do you say, now?

I do not really get your plan, by the way, as it seems you are contradicting yourself. I am all for finding the Evil Wizard and will gladly sacrifice both my sons in the search of this mastermind ( ), but we cannot just lynch them randomly because they are amusing.

It's a dilemma, certainly. In a large village such as this one, the silent ones will easily escape our notice, thus making them possible dangerous enemies. And when we have gotten rid of the wizards, we don't want all clever men and women dead and buried already. On the other hand, the EW is perhaps the cleverest of all. Should we sacrifice the intelligent ones in our search for the ultimate baddie? Meh. I don't know.

---

I also must say that I do not really understand your reasoning concerning Loki, Celuien. If sowing confusion purposedly is not reason enough to get you lynched on Day one, what is?

You think Lalaith as most desirable, Eomer? My guess of the Day is Firefoot. However, that is fairly irrelevant.

I'm not saying that he's the EW, but I'd rather consider all options than blindly trust him. Besides, why would he make flawed theories and lie? I've heard enough of his ancestors not to be too swift to declare him innocent.

What are you trying to imply, here?

However, though I should not be pointing fingers at him, if anyone is likely to have indulged in the arts of magic -though I cannot say whether any success was had- it might perhaps be... Well, I would never say that aloud, of course.

[Oddwen]

Originally Posted by Lommy

I would rather not have people voting preventively, with reasons "oh, the EW might have chosen him/her, since s/he is so xxx" or "s/he's too dangerous if s/he is turned into a lycantrophe, let's kill him/her". That's so wrong that it screams.

I think we should preferably look at the actions of people (I know it's difficult on day 1), since we really can't predict the wizard tactics (or at least I can't).

Good advice...'cuz what are we gonna do, kill anyone with destructive potentail? That's everyone! Though...hmm, mass lynch anyone?

True - referring to our 'lorebooks' isn't going to help us much, only confuse us, because every story of past villages is different.

So yeah, I guess I'm just repeating Fea. Hmm.

I don't believe I'll be voting today, because I haven't found a reason to see anyone suspicious enough to warrant one, and because I won't be back to vote. I have chickens to catch!

*runs off with a fat red pullet, dodging the effective strokes of a battledore!*

x-posted w/ tp & fea

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Fea! Fea, Fea, Fea!

I can see you.

I think we should lynch.....Caranlondien? She'd make a fine wolf and the EW knows it. She's sensible, adds to the discussion, and I don't think she'd get lynched had I not put her name on the shortlist.

If I were the EW, I'd create a monster from her.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I can see you.

Can you now? What am I wearing?

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Eomer

Just checking: Does this day end in 3 hours?

I'm working on the basis that the Day ends at 10pm GMT - in about three and a half hours from now. If I am wrong, please someone tell me, as I will otherwise miss my vote.

Some thoughts to follow ...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

I'm working on the basis that the Day ends at 10pm GMT - in about three and a half hours from now. If I am wrong, please someone tell me, as I will otherwise miss my vote.

Isn't 10 PM GMT about 4½ hours from now? Or am I just making a mess because of time zones?

x-posted with Kath, as it would matter...

[Kath]

*cries*

Why do you all write so much!? It takes so long to go through and then you feel cheated when you reach the end because half of it's just random banter anyway.

But, enough complaining! It won't help us find these wizards. So, things that caught my eye.

Loki's attitude is an obvious one. In the past such extreme defensiveness over the slightest little thing has been viewed as suspicious behaviour. Also, his continual repetition about the EW being most likely to choose him because he's a newbie sent up flags. You've pointed it out once, ok, but to do it two or three times and make a big thing of it? I just thought it odd.

Gurthang and his 'go after the wizards' plan I thought a good one. If we can rid ourselves of the EW soon, we will have fewer wolves to contend with. phantom's point about it not mattering that we have very few gifteds since we would have so few wolves is also a good one.

Oh and it was that suggested certain people would be chosen for certain roles. Please GW if you want this village to survive DO NOT choose me as Ranger! (Haha Diamond very funny )

And that was about it that I really thought worth commenting on, though there are probably things I've missed.

Now I appear to have been grounded, thanks Dad , so I must disappear for a bit. Should be back in a couple of hours though, well before the deadline don't worry.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Apologies for showing up late, all...I'll probably be mentioning some old stuff, but here we go.

A suggestion was made earlier to lynch people who were *not* likely to be a seer, ranger, etc, and my name came up on the list as an unlikely pick and therefore suggested lynchee. I feel that this is somewhat unfair. I certainly do not profess to be such a person as would be wanted by both sides, or to be one of those lucky enough to be gifted. However, I feel that dismissal of anyone, including the other names on the list, is a mistake. Perhaps both wizards wanted an unlikely pick--it makes it that much more likely that the certain person would not be picked by the other wizard, or that they would be lynched for their suspected role. If that makes any sense.

I thought I'd throw my two coins' worth in, as it applies to me, even though it seems that everyone has moved on from this particular issue.

I am leaning toward agreeing with my mum on the subject of Loki, though. There's something in his attitude that just sets me on edge. It's not necessarily a bad thing, as we're all bound to disagree with one another at some point, but he seems a little overly antagonistic.

And Phantom: Make me dinner? Aww, how kind of you! *blushes* *warily eyes Diamond-mum's battledores*

(EDIT)- (OOC-I just noticed this, and I think it is fitting in a way that my 300th post would find its home here)

[Glirdan]

I must agree with Phantom. I jut can't see any reason of the EW picking up her/his wolves from the stack of Spm, Spawn, Ang etc.. That would be very risky indeed. A wise EW would pick her/his chances differently. And we shall see these dynamics unfold in the days to become.(Nogrod)

I can see that side to the argument and it makes sense. But what if the EW predicted this kind of thought? What if he knew we would think like this and decide to choose one of them anyway?

Now I find something odd with Oddwen (ha! get it? oh never mind). Oddwen isn't normally one to run off and not vote, so what's with this behaviour? Why would she(?) not vote and know full well that this could potentially get her into trouble tomorrow or in Days to come? This is rather odd...

OCC - Lmp, if you're there and don't mind, could you verify how long we have until the Day ends?

Edit - x-posted with Lommy and my belovecd Kath (hurry back!!)

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by phantom

He doesn't fear a wizard challenge now. It's better for the village (worse for the EW) to have 2 wolves versus nearly thirty innocents than it is to have 10 wolves, 3 gifteds, and 10 innocents, so just because we don't have gifteds does not mean the wolves have a greater advantage now.

Even though the EW wanted to postpone the battle as long as s/he can and even though the GW didn't have to be afraid of being called into a duel early, revealing his/her identity leaves the EW with the last word to say which we don't want because then s/he can start the battle whenever we reach the baddie/gifted ratio that pleases him/her.

However, I see your point about the GW stepping forward on Day 3 or 4, and although it's up to the GW themselves, I tend to agree. Still, if the GW/ Seer/ Villagers manage to spot the EW before that, it'd be great.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I jut can't see any reason of the EW picking up her/his wolves from the stack of Spm, Spawn, Ang etc..

Yeah, I don't see much point in the EW choosing Ang either - especially since he's not playing.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Caran

I don't think, though, that the GW should declare him/herself. It's up to his/her discretion when to declare, and until then, it's best to stay hidden, in case the EW gets into a good position to challenge before the GW does.

Originally Posted by Caran

I also find Lhuna's suggestion about the GW revealing him/herself slightly odd. It doesn't seem like a good idea to me

Originally Posted by Spawn

I think it's a bigger blow to the Village to be left without all three Gifteds and fewer wolves than with a fully functioning trio of gifts and a wolf or two more.

Originally Posted by Spawn

I find there to be something odd in Lhuna's behaviour.
Firstly, I don't agree with her suggestion that the GW might want to reveal themselves now...
Now that the GW has no Gifteds on his/her side, and there are two wolves among 30 villagers, the numbers wouldn't be very favourable for us.

No. I completely disagree with you guys. There is nothing wrong with Lhuna asking the GW to reveal. He doesn't fear a wizard challenge now. It's better for the village (worse for the EW) to have 2 wolves versus nearly thirty innocents than it is to have 10 wolves, 3 gifteds, and 10 innocents, so just because we don't have gifteds does not mean the wolves have a greater advantage now.

Honestly, what are the odds of one of the two wolves surviving down to the end? Pretty darn low.

Anyone who is saying or thinking that the EW may want to challenge soon is off their rocker. The EW wants things to drag on as long as possible. The EW WILL NOT CHALLENGE EARLY.

He will wait and wait and wait, and will only challenge if he has several wolves and gets lucky during the night (he ungifts someone or his wolves kill a gifted or two- that would be the perfect time to challenge).

Here's a bit more yapping and strategy from me...

The GW is bound to be discovered by the time the population favors the EW (he can be discovered through lynching, wolf kill, or EW curse). In addition, the GW wants to preserve his gifteds and lynch wolves, therefore he will feel considerable pressure to step forward and provide the village with safe lynch candidates.

There is nothing for the GW to fear right now, and odds say he won't escape detection long enough for it to be profitable, not to mention there is the risk of losing his gifteds in the daily lynch without his guidance.

The GW WILL REVEAL himself by the end of Day 3, or at the latest Day 4 (could be as early as tomorrow). Revealing himself is the logical thing to do. Each day he will lead our lynch mob. He will provide two or three candidates whom he knows aren't gifted or Seer-dreamed-innocent, and we will pick from them. He will also take all of his scry info and the Seer's dream info and pass it to at least one other gifted besides the Seer so that even when he is gone all knowledge will be preserved in at least two individuals.

It is also possible that one wolf will be held back as a Hunter target. In other words, if the Seer finds a Wolf tonight, the GW will leave him alone and will not try and uncurse him or get him lynched, but instead pass that wolf's name to the Hunter in case the Hunter is killed. That way, he'll have a guaranteed wolf kill.

That could be very valuable late in the game. If there are only a couple wolves left and the Hunter is the last of the gifteds, he could go ahead and reveal himself, tell the village outright the results of all Seer dreams and GW scries up to that point (but leave out the identity of the known wolf), and then that night when the wolves slay him he takes one of them down.

A terrifying idea. Phantom the EW? I'd rather not think about it.

Actually, I don't think it's that terrifying. What are the odds that I will escape the attention of both the GW and the Seer? Not too high. Phantom=EW would lead to a resounding villager victory, I assure you.

Lastly, I have decided to blindly trust Sauce until the Wizards die. As I said earlier, Sauce and I both might be attractive wolves for the EW to pick, but he would want to do it late in the game. And even then it would be risky.

I'm going to trust the GW and Seer to take care of Sauce, and listen to what he has to say.

That's all I have time for right now. I have a bit of business to attend to. I'll be back later.

[Nogrod]

I must agree with Phantom. I jut can't see any reason of the EW picking up her/his wolves from the stack of Spm, Spawn, Ang etc.. That would be very risky indeed. A wise EW would pick her/his chances differently. And we shall see these dynamics unfold in the days to become.

The EW would like to engage the "good players" into her/his camp, but the first day s/he would not be so bold? Spm, Spawn, Morm, Ang, etc. would be great assets to the EW along the game - as they had first built up an appearance of innocence. But then, they would be too obvious.

I'm really scared about those that have not posted yet - or just have posted namely. I will have to look at that too. Basically voting for those who do not share the game anyhow.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Just checking: Does this day end in 3 hours? So many votes still to come!

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Just checking: Does this day end in 3 hours? So many votes still to come!

No, it is ending in 5 hours.

I'm convinced about the phantom's theory. It just makes sense. Nogrod is talking sense as well. But that doesn't release them from my suspicion.