Why Moria?

[Legolas]

Aragorn says the risk of snow lessens in the south,

So the risk of snow must greaten in the north. If something lessens as one moves south, it greatens as one moves north. If the chance of snow lessens as you move any distance south, moving that same distance up must greaten the chance of snow. That is the nature of north and south. They are relative to one another.

Inference is not speculation in this case. To infer that a smile means good intentions is a speculative inference. To infer that north and south are exact oppisites and not exact places is not.

"were not thinking of risks." I didn't say they weren't, Legolas.

You said this while it was clear that Aragorn was talking about risk. You said "Misty Mountain passes" - not "the High Pass." If this was a misstatement, it's okay.

The only person talking about risk is you, the Fellowship didn't, nor the Council of Elrond, regarding the Misty Mountain passes.