Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[the phantom]

Gurthang, you speak wise words. Trying to lynch the wizards isn't a bad idea. The GW won't stay hidden for long, so it won't hurt too much to reveal him/her. However, I think we can do better than lynching the GW. The GW and EW will likely have different playing strategies. I won't go into detail now, but there are certain things that will likely define the way the GW and EW post during the day, and we can use those behaviors as a guideline, making it more likely we will lynch the EW than the GW.

Every night, the GW has a chance of scrying the EW or scrying the same person the EW curses, and the Seer has a chance of spotting the EW. On top of that, if we villagers try our best to lynch the EW every day, that will give us three chances per cycle of catching the treacherous villain.

Honestly, catching an independent EW is no more difficult than catching wolves right now in a way, because though the wolves are "on the same team", they are likely clueless as to the identity of his/her wolvish counterpart, thus they will not be supporting each other or functioning as a team in any way.

Originally Posted by Gurthang

I do not think we should worry about Saucepan Man. Here's why: Even if he is turned into a wolf (which would be the only reason we would want to lynch him) then he'll probably be revealed sooner rather than later anyway. That's because any good Seer will dream of him first (or close to that). So, if the Seer will dream of him, then we'll have a good way of figuring out if he's a wolf or not.

I believe you speak truth. If you ask me, Sauce and I (and some others, perhaps, such as morm, Eomer, and Firefoot) will not be turned into a Werewolf early in the contest. The longer one is a wolf, the better chance there is of getting caught, especially if the Wolf is a likely Seer/GW target. If the EW wants to curse me (or one of the others I named), it would make much more sense for him/her to do so late in the game, right before the death of the wizards.

Also, don't bother looking for clues from the Seer. The Seer will no doubt be passing on all dream info to the GW, and leave it to him/her to divulge. The primary goal of the Seer is to avoid being killed and continue nightly activities. Unfortunately, this is identical to the goal of the EW, and so if we adopt Gurthang's plan of trying to lynch the EW, we might lynch the Seer by mistake.

(and no, I don't believe Gurthang had this in mind when he recommended it)

No matter how this village fares, we are likely to see a lot of death in the coming weeks. In my many travels I've heard stories of events such as these, and few of them ended well, and the ones that did- there weren't many left to celebrate. I, myself, fully expect to die before the end. But no matter. Let us all keep a stiff upper lip through these events, and not allow grief to stop us from doing our duty- stopping this tide of evil here and now! If we fail, there is no telling how far the evil will spread.