WWJ VIII ~ Things That Go "Quack" In The Night

[Lalaith]

Nilp Fowlagund has been successfully lynched.
Anguirel: It's excellent, of course, but I may be under suspicion for defending Nilp...on the plus side though, I think that means I'm unlikely to be attacked tonight...
Lal: what about Spawn? I do remember her as a wolf once, getting found out on the first day, maybe wolfishness sits uneasily with her. I'm surprised about her asking about wolf PMs. She normally knows the rules better than anyone, and she herself has found it suspicious when others ask/bring up such things. (I remember in the last game, I reminded everyone about wolves PMing in the day, she and elempi were seers and in the post-game PMs published, she flagged it as a suspicious comment.)
Do you think Diamond would make those two wolves together?
Some more thoughts:
Mith - very defensive. But then again, she can be.. We should watch her closely.
Saucie - just making too much damn sense. Again, watch him like the hawk you are.
Cailin - she thinks highly of us which is obviously gratifying but we mustn't let flattery lull us into a false sense of security.
Jenny makes sense, I've not played with her before but she feels reasonably innocent to me. You've had more experience here...(NB, at this point Jenny was still innocent!)
Morm, Kath - I know we were suspicious of them at first and by the end of the Day, I was still wondering about them. Did you see Morm's comment about his grandmother - ie "i am little red riding hood, not the wolf"?
Roa and Nogrod - I find their rowing difficult to deal with but I realise that doesn't actually make them guilty.
Valier, Sleepy, Glirdan, Elu and Lote haven’t been especially helpful today and one of them may well be a duck. Not Lote, actually, I refuse to believe a young newbie would be so cunning as to vote for a fellow duck straight out like that. (of course, big sis wilwa might be advising her)
Valier of course made the decisive vote against Nilp which should clear her, but she's probably smart enough to do that even as a Duck.
Those who didn't vote - why? Nogrod's alarm probably didn't go off, maybe spawn also thought she'd wake up early and didn't. Elu and Glirdan were probably just preoccupied.
Some thoughts about the Hunter role: I found it difficult, when I was the Hunter, to reconcile my wish to survive with the fact that if I didn't die my gift was useless. Also, I was terrified of killing the wrong person.
How do you plan to play it? Will you try to survive regardless or will you try to die at some point?
Anguirel: This is the fun bit. We think like wereducks, and anticipate their actions, without the moral compromise and stress of having to be them!
I'll approach your suspects and points one by one :
I don't yet particularly distrust spawn yet. A little hypocrisy perhaps in her question about PMs, as you say, but I feel there's more idleness than intrigue, which I can sympathise with.
On the other hand, it seems to me that Mith rather over-eggs the anti-spawn case over the PMs question. I also agree with Kath's worry about her statistical stuff, as you know. It seems unlike her. I strongly suspect Mith and may Hunt her tonight.
Saucie-well, I agree with you. I was contorting my self to find a proper weak spot. I can't find any grounds for suspicion yet really.
I still slightly suspect Cailin although not strongly. Still I no longer take her first words as a threat.
I think Jenny might be the Owl. I can't see many other explanations for her low profile.
Kath is no longer worrying me due to her later contributions. And though Jenny picked up the Little Red Riding Hood aspect I think it's a stretch too far...morm doesn't really work like that. Remember his odd request to hire protection at the beginning though? And his flawed attempt to make us wary of Owl-hoots? Hmm.
I genuinely do suspect Roa a bit-because of the rapidity with which she moved from defending to attacking Nogrod fiercely on the Owl point. The likelihood is though that they're both innocent.
Not much to say about the quiet ones, except that when we were wolves together, I sort of tutored Valier in the paths of unrighteousness, and I pulled the same trick she might have done today-needlessly killing our fellow wolf to strengthen my cred. So I wouldn't be that surprised if she's taken up that habit.
Now, my approach to the Hawk role-I can explain best by quoting Hector. "No man shall send me down to Hades before my time." I intend to die, but in the late stages if possible when I have a much more certain bead on a wolf than I do now.

This means I may ask you to guard me sometimes, but not, I think, tonight, as I don't see there's a real likelihood I'll be attacked. You may perhaps think differently, but I think my defence of Nilp might prove fortunate.

Any Owl-hinters, do you think? I think morm might be one, but I doubt his veracity seriously. Still, I think you should either take him at his word and guard him, or guard one of the most high-profile players, like Saucie, who might be at risk if Mith is a wolf, having also contributed to Nilp's fall.
What do you think?
Lalaith: One other thing - I think Ducks will be much less concerned about finding the seer than they normally are. So I think protecting helpful players, rather than possible seers, is the way forward for me.
Lal: another question - why, if Mith is a wolf, would she try to get a high-profile player like spawn lynched on the first day? If she's worried about spawn, she could kill her at night, couldn't she? It's highly unlikely that a spawn bandwaggon would succeed on the first day...much better to go for a low-level ord.
Anguirel: Because it's what she'd do were she not a duck? Because spawn is an unusually suspicious-looking candidate at the moment? The two combine to in principle make it look like both a brave and a sensible vote-but not so sensible that spawn will actually be pushed into the lead.
I don't think Mith was expecting or hoping spawn would be lynched-a reliable wolf tactic is to strongly attack someone who's well defended and will probably not be lynched-they then sidestep all blame for deaths that follow.
I agree with you about Owls...not so much that the ducks won't try to get them, but that, bar chance, they won't be able to get them, due to the reticence of the Owl on hints...so that means that they are likely to attack whoever they think is being most helpful, or has the best potential, to the village.
This is where you have to ask: as a duck, who would you go for? You can even add: as a duck with Nilp, your fellow duck, recently outed, who would you go for? And who would you think the Nightingale would guard? Where would you feint? etc.
Think about it and try and sketch out a picture, and I'll do the same. You can of course insist on guarding me if that truly seems the best choice. Maybe it's cowardice as the Night draws on, but I'm starting to think about it myself!
Oh, and were you the Hunter, would you go for Spawn? Saucie? Mith? Cailin?
Mith and Roa are leading for me at the moment I think...arrrgh...
Lalaith: You've put me to rights about the Mith/spawn thing, thank you. (at least for now)
So, who voted for Nilp?
Other than le canard soi-meme, it was Valier, Lote and Sleepy. If any of those are the Owl, I'm a Dutchman.
You know, I'm damn glad I didn't vote for Nilp, as I nearly did, or they might have had me out for Minerva's familiar. As it is, I think I might be all right.
I do think protecting you tonight would get us both off the hook. It's a good option for first night, because neither of us really have that much to go on. Of course might regret it tomorrow if you look to be in more danger. Oh, I don't know. Maybe we should go back to plan A, where you hunt Mith/Roa and I protect, I think, Saucie.
You decide.
Anguirel: Okay. Cowardice has won, and I'd rather strike my Pyrrhic blow tomorrow night than tonight. I just don't have enough information yet.
Please protect me after all-which makes my target academic. I'll hunt morm tonight just for the principle of the thing...
I don't think I'll be attacked actually, but a successful save might actually be counter-productive at this stage. The ducks had better not attack you though...but there's nothing we can do if they decide to. There's no one more helpless than a Ranger/Nightingale...
Maybe get yourself into a more suspicious position tomorrow? Pick a fight? We really don't want them cottoning on to you.
Lalaith: The only thing I'd worry about re being eaten by Ducks is if I accidentally said the right thing and made myself look Owlish. (as I nearly did with Nilp) Otherwise, there's enough heavyweights around, for Ducks not to bother themselves overmuch with little me...on the other hand, Rangers do not have a good survival rate. Well, lets see what tomorrow brings. You're right, though, being in a Good Conspiracy is fun, rather like the French Resistance...

[Lalaith]

Day Two:
I am being more ruthless with editing, you’ll be glad to hear. We are of course delighted that my save appears to have been successful. We speculate a lot on why the ducks chose Anguirel, and what we should do next in light of this - speculation that I won’t bore you with as it was of course based on a completely false premise.

Lalaith: I'm still not happy with spawn. Her summaries so far are unusually verbose and lack her customary incisiveness.
Ang: Do you think I should state my genuine suspicions today or dissemble? For instance, I could hide my true feelings against Mith by denouncing Spawn, with a view to shooting Mith tonight.
Do you really suspect Roa that much? All your other statements seemed genuine, but there you almost seemed to be stating my view rather than yours...did I convince you? I'm not so sure of my Roa theory myself anymore...
Lalaith: No, I do suspect Roa, and unless something else happens, or you persuade me otherwise, I'll probably vote for her tonight . However, I am more suspicious of spawn than I said I was, in my post just now. I'm in watching mode, however.
(At this point Saucie makes his bird-lime suggestion and throws us both into a panic)
Ang: On the Nightingale's consecutive guarding...what could it mean?
Ordinary villager being officious?
Duck being unsubtle and unSaucelike but possibly trying to out the Nightingale through reactions?
Owl who thinks he was guarded last night and is worried, or just generally wants to find out about his life expectancy?
To me this is a far more "red alert" question than spawn's one on PMs...
Lalaith: Yes, absolutely, major red alert, which is why I have been studiously ignoring his remarks. I had thought of the first two options but not third, Owl one.
I am obviously not going to ask him what he was on about but maybe you could. They (the ducks) know you're NOT the guardian, as you couldn't have guarded yourself.
Or maybe...wait....he's a duck trying to find out if you really are the hawk. Because as the hawk, you would know that it was you that was guarded last night, and thus you would be more interested in this question.....
Ang: Another, and ironic, possibility is that Saucie himself is our pate-de-foie-gras gander! (Editor’s note – oh clever Ang)
Lal: Saucie as goose....interesting...I'm also wondering if Roa might be the Goose. Very goosey, actually, to provoke Nogrod like that, and she knows him well. Her rage against Nilp might be 'how can I help you if you won't help yourself...'
Ang: So are we just completely playing it cool about Saucie's question? With luck a player like Nogrod will realise just how peculiar it is, I suppose.
I'm probably going to have to commit myself by voting morm tonight. I might provisionally shoot Mith-lynchings can be frightfully sudden affairs-and then we'll think what to do toNight. But that's still a while in the future.
Support my morm movement if you like-I'm inclined to think it'll lessen rather than increase suspicion of a link. And we'll comb the thingamajig for strategy hints.
It's amazing to think we have only two and a half foes-I feel as if there are still at least four! (Editor's note: Again, clever Ang...)
Lalaith: I know what you mean...however I don't think I will vote morm. It looks too inconsistent, I've said nothing about him other than that he is vaguely goosey. I think I will stick with Roa unless something bad happens, eg if I have to save you or me. But neither of us seem under much suspicion.
I want to hear Saucie's protection racket. I hope he posts it soon
Ang: That Nogrod......I think the apposite phrase is a brick. (Editor’s note: To those not versed in English slang - this is a compliment, we are delighted that Noggie has just asked Saucie exactly what he meant by his plan) Just as I predicted! The ducks might even think he's the Ranger...
Lal (posting around midnight after the double Seer debacle, after Ang’s server has shut down) I'm certainly in no mood to try to dissect this all now. Despite my misgivings about spawn earlier, I'm just not going to trust Glirdan blindly.
Lets see what the lynching brings and have a proper chat tomorrow.

[JennyHallu]

I got so irritated that people commented and commented on how quiet I was...and I was honestly kicked off the internet at work, and had no time. I've fudged on that some, but not that week....

[Lalaith]

I know, Jenny, must have been very annoying...
Anyway, this is my final installment, phew.

Night three
Ang:I missed the climax of this drama, Glirdan's arrival. Even with spawn unmasked, I'm unwilling to trust him! I was so convinced my Mith's revelation-could all that Iliad stuff be a mere ruse...? What if Glirdan's the final duck? We should test him by not guarding him, perhaps...
Thank God we both stayed quiet. You're the village's most important asset right now and I don't think the duck has a clue who you are.
Lal: I know what you mean about the Glirdan/Mith thing. I just instinctively was more inclined to trust her.
Ang: I now think Glirdan can't be a duck-it's a move that leads to inevitable long term defeat if he is. But he could be a Goose who tried things out and got lucky-seeing Spawn as a likely duck for the same reasons you did.
I came round to your view by the way. Before Glirdan's arrival, I'd left with my beak trained not on morm but Spawn... I think you should call Glirdan's bluff and guard Mith at the moment.
Lal: I'm not convinced - yet - about protecting Mith. I'll throw my own plan at you later, for you to pick holes in. Incidently, what about this 'hidden aspect' Diamond mentioned, have you given that any thought? Don't tell me, you're really a duck...

Lalaith:
Possible Glirdan scenarios:
1. Glirdan is a goose. But WHY then in the name of all that is quacky would he offer up a duck for lynching? He wants the ducks to win. And he couldn't have known for sure that spawn was a duck.
2. Glirdan is a duck. If so, he will be unmasked either today or tomorrow, and lose. (Partly because if he survives more than two nights he is clearly a duck)
3. Glirdan is an owl. In which case we need to find the last duck.
Why Glirdan might be the goose/duck:
post 256 where the scenarios seem badly thought out.
Why Glirdan might be the owl:
because the other options make little or no sense.


Possible Mith scenarios
1. Mith is a goose. In which case Glirdan is the owl, Glirdan scenario 3, and we don't know who the duck is, but Glirdan might dream him/her tonight.
2. Mith is a duck. In which case, ditto as Glirdan scenario 2.
3. Mith is the owl. In which case Glirdan must be the duck because it is so unlikely that he is the goose (vid. Glirdan scenario one)

There is also the option that Mith is a Goose and Glirdan a duck. In which case we will also find this out in the next two days, and win.

So, if Mith is the owl, we do not need to protect her because we know anyway that Glirdan is the duck.
But if Glirdan is the owl, we DO need to protect him as Mith is probably the Goose and we still don't know who the duck is.

Now, shoot away, Papageno.

PS I looked on Saucie's Grimoire and found that the Ranger has had a zero survival rate.
Ang: That's because they tend to reveal themselves. Make sure you don't and you might yet break the mould. Besides, they've survived in WWJ games, I think. Take heart.

Now. Glirdan. As I say, I really cannot see him as a Duck anymore. Why would a Duck act as he has done? There's no way they could win.
I dismiss the idea of both being guilty. Surely the real Owl would have come forward? Unless they're being seriously canny and longtermish.
Mith seemed so blasted genuine. Maybe Goose Glirdan hoped to have a shot at assassinating a duck many of us suspected as such and so getting cred; effectively sealing Mith's doom; and giving the last wolf, about whom he had no clue, a chance at Kurusing it to the end.
Odd coincidence that both Owls declare Sauce innocent...a very plausible choice of dream by Glirdan, eh, particularly as it required little rejigging from Mith's mindset.
If Glirdan is the goose, remember the last duck won't himself know who is the real Owl.
Note Glirdan didn't apparently take in that roles are hidden at death-what does that say about his strategy?
Is there some, shudder, Third Way of compromise we could take? I don't really know who to hunt-my suspects have been shot to pieces and I fear my morm case was shoddy.

Lalaith: As for hunting, do you think you're a likely kill-candidate? I'm pretty sure either Glirdy or Mith, whichever is the real McCoy, are for the chop tonight.
I'm just still not convinced about Goose Glirdy. Getting a seer eaten is just not enough payback for losing a wolf. I could have protected Mith toNight but she'd have been eaten tomorrow anyway.
If Goose-Glirdy had been wrong about spawn, he would have been revealed as a fraud and lynched tomorrow, and Mith would still have been protected tonight.
It would have been too silly to say it, unless he was sure and the only way he could be sure was if he was a duck or owl.
Oh dear. I wish you weren't so convinced about Mith's genuineness.
And what about Diamond's hidden agenda, which I mentioned earlier today?
Ang: I agree, I'm not that likely a candidate, but I need to keep up appearances-and there is the fact that the duck knows I'm unguarded. And could kill two innocents. I'd say after the two Owls I'm one of the more possible targets.
Diamond's secret won't affect the the game- it'll be an anagram or a literary reference or some similar easter egg.
You'd best protect Glirdan if you feel he's the more likely. In any case thanks to spawn's demise it's no catastrophe. I'll analyse to find a suitable hawk victim.

Lalaith: Well, leave me a message to let me know who you hunt.
I don't know, maybe Diamond's secret is that there are two owls!!
Ang: I will not hunt morm-that's what the last duck expects me to do.
I am literally shooting in the dark when I choose Valier. I have had a little suspicion of her for a long time and I increasingly trust to marginal, out of the way, "winging" Hawking. I did after all pick Spawn last night before the two Owls controversy...
So...let's hope.

After both Nightingale and Hawk had died, their ghosts resumed some correspondence:

Lal: Oh, I was SO cross on Saturday morning.
You did exactly the right thing, I suspected you might be killed, and was hoping you would make Glirdan your hunt. I think we can assume Morm is innocent, don't you?
That fourth wereduck, grrr...and there I was, so pleased with my save...
Ang: At least thanks to my deception about Philomela Mith got an extra dream. I was pleased with that. Now we can have fun watching their efforts to find the Nightingale!
I suspect Valier again. But I had to remove Glirdan and his chaos, goose or duck.
It is sad about your save, but you did do well nonetheless. I wonder how on earth they spotted you...
Lal: Yes, the Philomela subterfuge was excellent, well done.
You know, I wonder if Mith turns out to be the last duck after all...the existence of an extra duck would make a false seer move more sensible.
Otherwise I would say Valier or Noggie. He changed so abruptly in style after day one...
If I were still in the village I would insist Diamond answer the following questions:
1. Did the ducks know that their first kill would join them, beforehand?
2. Was the cursed villager pre-selected and the ducks got very lucky, or would any first duck kill become a duck?

A day or two later…

Lalaith: I can't believe they killed Morm, the fools!
Who do you think the final duck is? I'm starting to wonder about Saucie...I fear we've lost. What do you think?
Ang: I'm sure it's Nogrod. He encouraged the nonsensical Kath/morm duel and pretended to trust Mith while she lived only to cast doubt on her after her demise, when her Owlishness was painfully obvious.
I trust Saucie and I think he's onto him. At one point he asked morm and Kath to consider that they might both be innocent...they ignored him...
But I'm confident Saucie will swing Kath-for Nogrod will surely kill Valier-and they'll unmask the final Duck, I hope.
Lal: I hope so. But I can't understand why Saucie, whose intellect I have the greatest respect for, didn't light on the obvious point (made by Mith before her death) that morm would never have risked killing you. Which makes me suspect him.
But you're right, Noggie is pretty suspicious too.
And the absence of Cailin/not Cailin is sorely felt.
Oh well, we shall see...

[Kath]

PS I looked on Saucie's Grimoire and found that the Ranger has had a zero survival rate.

That's probably down to me. My life as Ranger is rarely long!

Thanks for those PMs Lalaith, it's nice to see what you guys were thinking, since we Ducks had to try and work it out each Night!

[Nogrod]

Thanks Lalaith!

It was just so good read! And how you gifteds can be so right, and then so wrong!

Just nice stuff to see...

And really well thought of, by both of you two!

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by AngHawk

Diamond's secret won't affect the the game- it'll be an anagram or a literary reference or some similar easter egg.

Mwah ha ha ha ha..... ha ha.... bwahahahahahaha!

Sorry, I couldn't resist.

Thank you muchly for all that Lal, you certainly were a verbose duo!

By the way -- both times I mentioned the "secret" I did it in conjunction with announcing the roles -- once in poem form and once in "plain English." That was a hint as to the nature of the "secret," that it had to do with the roles. Also, since I was not revealing roles upon death, I thought that would point to the fact that I had something to hide about the roles. Kind of obtuse hinting, but it was there.