WWJ VIII ~ Things That Go "Quack" In The Night

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But, if we make a misguided lynch today, it all depends on tomorrow. And I can't be sure, whether I will be there then,

I am curious as to why you think you would die tonight. I know it is possible for anyone to be killed, if I am not killed then the Duck is set on further confusion or leading us in the wrong direction. Since I assume that I was protected last night....Hmmmmm Do we still have a nightinggale? If we do, do you think it would help if they came out? Since I may die tonight, it may not have too many consiquences if they come out. Since either they or myself will be the target, then if I do go you last Ordo's can have one more person to trust.

I hope this makes sense....just kinda thinking to myself as I write.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Valier

I am curious as to why you think you would die tonight. I know it is possible for anyone to be killed, if I am not killed then the Duck is set on further confusion or leading us in the wrong direction. Since I assume that I was protected last night....Hmmmmm Do we still have a nightinggale? If we do, do you think it would help if they came out?

I didn't actually think I would be the first in the list of the kills, but at this stage, the duck would be wise to spread the confusion with her/his kill of the night. And because of what I said (putting forward ideas you others seem to have been not very happy about), you others might be mislead to believe things that the real duck might use, one way or another by killing me. But surely, you could think these out. And if the duck is not so bright, we should not help her/him in this.

And sadly, we don't know about the nightingale. I would not talk about this matter more, sorry. I guess s/he will have to decide for her/himself... It's the last instance, to be sure, but there are risks involved. And we might need her/him still...

[Kath]

morm, those comments you quoted from Jenny, which Day are they from? Because Mith (who I still believe was the Owl) believed that she was the converted Duck, and so if those were made on Day 1 then she wouldn't have known anything about spawn or Nilp would she? She'd only have as much knowledge as the next innocent.

If, however, she was an original Duck and those comments were made on Day 1, only two of those she mentioned could have been Ducks at that time. We know spawn and Nilp were, so you can't use that logic to determine that I am one too, it gives you one too many.

[mormegil]

Jenny in post 100 outlines everybody in the village and says the following things, now obviously either Jenny, Spawn or the third duck (kath) are innocent being day 1 and all.

Kath I see your point and stated this in that exact post. I realize that one of the three females was innocent on day one but the point remains that Jenny spoke about Spawn, Nilp and you about the same. Mith thinking that Jenny was the converted Duck has absolutley no bearing on anything. Even though she were the owl she wouldn't know if she were an original Duck or a converted.

Let's assume Spawn is the converted Duck and you were original.

Jenny didn't speak much about you and Nilp on Day 1 of course she includes others in there that they perhaps wanting to kill that night, which would make sense to me. It wouldn't tie back to her when Spawn was killed. So they move in for the Spawn kill and to their surpirse, yours to I should add, she turns into a duck. The pattern of behavior from Jenny remained consistent on all. I think that you are grasping at straws.

[Kath]

Glirdy: His first post is pretty much nonsense, and includes accusations of SPM and Spawn that I'm inclined to look at as pure randomness. He's not said anything else except for two "Ho Hum, I'm herding trees elsewhere" posts.

Elu: Has basically just popped in once.

Taken from the same post by Jenny that you took your quotes from morm. Now, I realise since they are dead and I am alive I am naturally more suspicious But the point is that she made little mention of these players as well. Just because she had no opinion on me at the time doesn't mean that she was trying to avoid mentioning me.

[Nogrod]

Good that you took that up Kath. I was wondering, should I check, were there others with over-rounded opinions in Jenny's post. Somehow Morm didn't manage to point all the cases out, just those suiting his purposes - as happened on his first post on dAY2...

I'll go and see for myself, naturally, but Morm: adding to this your sudden change of tone towards Spm after his last post... Well you seem to be topping my list again. But I really have to look back again, before saying anything more to either lean towards trusting or suspecting you more.

[Nogrod]

I was just going through the dAY1 talk, as I noted something of interest - something I had kind of forgot.

In the famous post #30 Morm condsiders the goose tactics (that was somewhat suspected later as giving advice to the actual goose)

Let's think about this shall we:

1. When dead the roles will not be revealed, this includes goose and owl.
2. If the owl proclaims him/herself we will not know of the truth unless we try his/her words.
3. The goose wants to help the Ducks
4. What better way to help than flush out the owl early on?

A strategem I would use, if I were the goose, would be to declare myself the owl on day 3, maybe day 2, and hope that the real owl declares themself. So if you are the real owl and an imposter declares themself, use your discretion.

Then Spm answered this in post #67 as follows:

To be believable, the Goose would have to declare one, probably two, “Ducks“. A wise Owl will remain silent - that should go (and should have gone) without saying. Either the Goose gets “lucky” and a Duck is lynched (in which case the Goose is failing in his or her task) or an innocent is lynched, swiftly followed by the Goose. But by identifying this as a potential risk, you make it more likely that a real Owl declaration, on Day 3 for example, will not be believed. On the contrary, I think that we should believe any Owl declaration. It can soon be accurately, and lethally for a Goose masquerading as an Owl, tested.

So what to make of it? If Glirdan was the goose (on dAY2), he actually obeyed Morm's advice? (But surely Morm vaguely backed it up with the last sentence? I know, Morm, this can be looked at more benevolently too: I'm just testing some Devil's advocate stuff here - if it brings you more true than false to my eyes, I will tell it in the end) If Glirdan was a goose, he totally disregarded Spm's warnings about "bad goose tactics" and did exactly what Spm thought really bad...?

[mormegil]

Yet Spawn seemed to do analysis of many people all known innocents exept me, but to me I am known to be innocent but I don't expect anybody to take my word on that of course.

The people against whom they spoke, with the exclusion of me, are all known innocents.

Do you choose to not read carefully or are you hoping to sway popular opinion by purposefully misrepresenting my words? You can read here that I, if not stated explicitly, implied that they did speak similarly of others, but they are all dead. However their behavior pattern was consistent in the way they treated the other ducks. That's the point I'm making. Nogrod is buying it...well done Kath.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Nogrod is buying it...well done Kath.

No I'm not. I'm just looking at the things with the Devil's eyes. I will have a reasoned opinion of my own in some time (hopefully) soon.

[Kath]

I am not misrepresenting your words morm. I may not understand them at times due to the continued repetition that you are innocent within each and every sentence, but I'm trying.

The people against whom they spoke, with the exclusion of me, are all known innocents.

Really? Let's see.

Nilp of course spoke against no one but himself - turned out to be a Duck.

Spawn spoke against Mithalwen on Day 1, when we didn't know her to be the Owl and she was under some suspicion from various members of the village. Later turned out to be an innocent. Day 2 suspicion of Glirdan, who we now believe was the Goose. More suspicion of Mith, but that was rife at the time. Some suspicion of morm, with fair reasoning as far as I can see.

Jenny spoke against Roa on Day 1, who was an innocent. Then morm, Valier, SPM, Mith, Sleepy and Roa again. So basically half the village, it being Day 1. Even an innocent (as she may well have been at the time) could have picked 6/7 names out of a hat and ended up with every single one being innocent. Day 2, she suspected and voted for spawn - who we now know was a Duck. By this time she was definitely a Duck whether she began as one or not I know, but she still went for someone who didn't turn out to be innocent.

I won't go on, but the point is there. Those who the Duck's spoke against have not all turned out to be innocents. And if you are willing to make generalised, sweeping statements like that I would say it was you that was clutching at straws.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by mormegil

SpM you speak fair sense and it helps allay any doubt that you were converted on night 2. Well my good SpM what do you propose? I still think Kath highly suspect and want her lynched. I really would like to hear a bit more from Valier, as she is the only one I trust 100%

When you said I spoke sense, I presume that you were referring to my comment about the dangers of focussing too much on you and Kath. Yet you continue to display a single-minded determination to see Kath lynched without considering other possibilities. If you are innocent, you muct surely recognise the possibility that Kath is too. And you must surely see the danger then inherent in your approach. We lynch one of you today and (when that person is proven innocent) automatically lynch the other tomorrow. And lose.

Your single-mindedness in this regard points more to your guilt than your innocence, in my view.

Originally Posted by Valier

I am leaning towards Kath and more so Cailin at the moment, I still find it odd that she is no where to be seen yet today.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I agree with Spm, that (non-)Cailin is really dangerously quiet.

The possibility that Calin is a Duck concerns me greatly. If she is, then she almost deserves to win. But, as I said earlier, it is often easier for the werecreature, with the knowledge he or she has, to appear innocent than it is for the true innocents to appear as such. I speak from experience (on both "sides of the fence") on this.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Now someone said, I might be the goose here. I admit I have tried to add complexity to our choices, but not with the idea of misguiding us, but for us to see the real possibilities.

I think that you may be referring to my earlier comment. I said that your speculation that Mith may have been the Goose may have been calculated to cause confusion. By this, I meant not that you might be the Goose, but that you might well be our remaining Duck. I believe our Goose to be dead, courtesy of Ang. You describe the likelihood of you being the Duck as being small. But it is not. You were declared innocent as the result of a Night 1 dream. It remains quite possible that the Ducks tried to kill you on Night 2. In fact, you were a quite likely target for them.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Good that you took that up Kath. I was wondering, should I check, were there others with over-rounded opinions in Jenny's post. Somehow Morm didn't manage to point all the cases out, just those suiting his purposes - as happened on his first post on dAY2...

I made the point myself earlier, although perhaps not quite so forcefully:

Originally Posted by me

I am not sure that we should read too much into Jenny's post that you refer to, as she mentioned a number of people, innocents and Ducks alike, in a fairly neutral way.

Morm seems to be a serial offender when it comes to selecting excerpts from quotes to suit his arguments ...

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If Glirdan was a goose, he totally disregarded Spm's warnings about "bad goose tactics" and did exactly what Spm thought really bad...?

An interesting point you make. Yet, I wasn't saying that the "Goose tactic" I outlined would necessarily be bad. It would depend on the circumstances. I said that, if anyone claimed to be the Owl, then they should be believed as, if they were a Goose, they would swiftly be found out. But it might be worth the Goose doing this, for example in an attempt to expose the real Owl. That is not the situation which occured. But I still believe that Glirdan (the Goose) thought spawn to be innocent and that her death, together with the confusion caused, was worth his own.

If I am wrong, it means that Mith must have been the Goose. In which case, we can no longer rely on Valier's innocence. The possibility that Valier may be the last Duck is almost too dreadful to contemplate.

Originally Posted by mormegil

However their behavior pattern was consistent in the way they treated the other ducks.

No. Their behaviour pattern was consistent in the way they treated Ducks and innocents alike. I really don't see how this point counts against Kath, morm, and your persistence with it strengthens my concerns over you.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

You describe the likelihood of you being the Duck as being small. But it is not. You were declared innocent as the result of a Night 1 dream. It remains quite possible that the Ducks tried to kill you on Night 2. In fact, you were a quite likely target for them.

This is interesting.

First: I was not "declared" innocent in day1, only on day2, so I would not be more higher in their agenda as anyone else after the firtst day talk (the ducks had to base their decision on day1 "results" only).

Secondly: I have never come to think - newbie as I still seem to be - the meaning of this idea, that the shapeshifting should be a result of night2 kill-decision. They could have been told beforehand, that you can pick someone? I don't know, whether there is a precedent here, and how it would be - or would Diamond go with it / know it in the first place... That would be a piece of important information now. As if it is their first actual gamenight's (night2) kill, we should really look for the one they would have liked to kill!