WWJ VIII ~ Things That Go "Quack" In The Night

[Nogrod]

Surely, there is a possibility of Mith being the last duck. Then we would have been misguided guite nicely by her! If she is a duck, she would know the innocents, and then by revealing Spm, me & Ang would gain credibility in our eyes - and hope that we would then persuade others to believe her innocence... That's a scenario worth noting. Even though I understand her (possible) distress yesterday (noting the probable similarities you face as being a duck or an owl), and the situation with time-zones etc.

So Mith is either a duck or an owl? Otherwise she couldn't have hit the innocent-revealments right (as I believe, she did - knowing mine, and believing stronly the cases of Spm & Ang).

But how about Glirdy? If he is the owl or a goose, our lynch wouldn't tell that. It would only show his duckness / nonduckness. That's why I think we should have them both around tomorrow - with their claims of a dream both (maybe Glirdy now has time to dream? ). That means not indefinitively. We might have a situation, where lynching one of them would be wise (remember the case Spawn - no-one I think really believed her to be a duck after all, but it was a good case to test the different claims).

So tonight's lynch? I'll try to have some grounded opinions in an instant - but can't promise, I can deliver that promise.

EDIT: X-posted with Morm

[mormegil]

No we shouldn't lynch either, while there is still exist a possibilty, even though it may be slight, that one or the other is an owl. The Ducks, most likely, will kill them when the time comes but we are in the business of Duck hunting. We really should focus on those whom look most supicious, that includes me obviously. Anybody who is not a known innocent is a potential lynch candidate with the exception of, Glirdan and Mith.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by mormegil

No we shouldn't lynch either, while there is still exist a possibilty, even though it may be slight, that one or the other is an owl. The Ducks, most likely, will kill them when the time comes but we are in the business of Duck hunting. We really should focus on those whom look most supicious, that includes me obviously. Anybody who is not a known innocent is a potential lynch candidate with the exception of, Glirdan and Mith.

I don't see, how you can disagree with me by being of the same opinion?

But here is something I have picked up...

So who do we have in the village by now?

Mithalwen – self-revealed Owl
Anguirel – innocent by Mith
Nogrod – innocent by Mith
Saucepan Man – innocent by both Mith and Glirdy

Glirdan – self-revealed Owl (revealing Duck-Spawn)

Mormegil - unknown
Valier - unknown
Kath - unknown
”Non-Cailín” - unknown
Lote22 – unknown
JennyHallu – unknown

As I said earlier, I would like to see Morm as our dream, and Mith as the protected one. That’s of course the choice of the gifteds.

And the tally?

Ang --> Morm (Morm1)
Lote --> Mith (Morm1, Mith1)
Mith --> Jenny (Morm1, Mith1, Jenny1)
Non-Cailin--> Jenny (Morm1, Mith1, Jenny2)

[Nogrod]

Of the unknowns in my list, I could be suspecting all of them...

But,

I will not vote Morm, as I think he should be given a chance with a dream (my "case" against him is light, and could be just an altruistic villager talk).

Kath I have not looked very closely during the game (it's my own fault), but for now, I'm granting her the benefit of doubt. Nothing that would rise the "red flags" there.

Jenny I'm always suspicious of - and that's to do with our mutual history. Now she plays a very odd game - but I have seen her twice as a wolf too. So I can't make any conclusion based on that.

That leaves:

Valier: The enigma. Has posted something and had reason in her posting - mostly. She would have to be analyzed, but at least I'm not going to be the one today (it's coming 3AM, and I'll be to sleep in a minute).

Lote: She hasn't posted much to take a hold to. And as she is a newbie, I wouldn't make so much of it. Anyhow, her vote today for Mith was an eyebrow-raising thing. We can speculate of things going on behind the screen - and I don't like to count my vote on that either. But still: that was not an easy vote to interpret.

Cailin: Reasonable play all the time. But why she didn't just tell us, that she will be away for a couple of days? Taking a substitute might tell us of either a good-hearted villager, or a duck, not wishing to leave her post...

[Kath]

Alright, I have to go now so:

++MORM

Due to my earlier reasoning.

[Nogrod]

Kath: you made just a move that takes you up on the ladder of my suspicions... But anyhow. I will go for:

++ Lote22

Her vote for Mith is - if not duckish - at least geesy. And I know, I'm having a very wavering argument here (as we have rivalling Owls here, and so geesiness would be the only factor explaining the other one).

But by now, this is what I can come to. Lote is the only person from my unknown list, I have a reason to back my vote with.

[Nogrod]

So here we are.

Ang --> Morm (Morm1)
Lote --> Mith (Morm1, Mith1)
Mith --> Jenny (Morm1, Mith1, Jenny1)
Non-Cailin--> Jenny (Morm1, Mith1, Jenny2)
Kath --> Morm (Morm2, Mith1, Jenny2)
Nogrod --> Lote22 (Morm2, Mith1, Jenny2, Lote1)

Good night to all of you.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, Doctor Who lasted longer than expected …

Actually, the truth is I like to spend my Saturday evenings with Mrs Saucepan-Orc. So I am only just back and up to speed.

My earlier main suspects were Jenny and morm. Jenny has not yet put in an appearance. Morm has, although mainly just to defend himself.

Originally Posted by mormegil

When I was asking Mith to not dream of me, I was talking to Mith and asking her to trust me. Seemingly she did as I trust her.

Of course you were talking to Mith. And, if you are a Duck (and she is the Owl), you had good reason to gain her trust and to ask her not to dream of you.

As for morm’s reactions to the Mith and Glirdan revelations, we all had good reason to pause and think and maybe to believe one and then the other. But his views on this issue seem to have followed village opinion rather too closely for my liking.

Trusting Ang, as I do (his instincts as well as his proven innocence and revealed Hawkishness), his regret over his vote gives me pause for thought over morm. I think, however, that this was largely a result of morm’s accusations of pride and foolishness. To the extent that it was anything said by morm in his defence, it must have been this:

Originally Posted by mormegil

Some people seem to remember that Spawn was on my me like stink on a monkey and while this could be a good tactic to be used, why would she go after me so fervently so soon with her numbers being already reduced? It was very apparant that I was the favorite candidate for lynching yesterday.

Well, I looked back and, while there was some suspicion of morm prior to spawn’s vote, it could hardly be described as making him the favourite for the lynching. Anguirel thought him a Duck. I was fairly suspicious. And Nogrod and Cailin both expressed some mild suspicion. As some have noted today, morm is generally one of those who is unlikely to attract votes unless people are very suspicious of him. He was by no means favourite to be lynched yesterday at the time spawn voted. Quite the opposite. I can well imagine her voting for a fellow Duck at that point, particularly as she was not to know that she would be later "revealed" and lynched.

Originally Posted by mormegil

Mith, if you must dream of me, dream away, but if my two cents is desired I would say dream of Kath.

Here, morm is still trying to dissuade the Owl from dreaming of him, albeit more subtely than before.

I strongly suspected morm earlier. If anything, his contributions since have heightened that suspicion. Primarily because they have been directed mainly towards defending himself rather than finding a Duck. He throws suspicion Kath’s way, but provides nothing to justify that suspicion - other than my earlier comment that, if he’s innocent, Kath would look suspicious for her vote for him following Glirdan’s revelation. Yet, he now claims to put more faith in Mith than in Glirdan, so I am not sure how that can cout too much against Kath.

It's late and I must vote.

+ + MORMEGIL

Goodnight all. I hope to see you tomorrow.

[mormegil]

Let me see if I can do a decent analysis of Jenny

Post 60

Simply checks in and comments on Valier calling this a loud village. Says Roa is not as cautious as normal and this speaks highly of her as normally she'd be cautious. Noggy is at his old game and therefore thinks he's innocent.

Post 84

Checking in again apologizes for silence but she should be able to talk now, says she's caught up on the reading but doesn't really post anything else.

Post 100


Does some thoughts on each player:

DSoU: She's only posted twice today, so don't expect to see a lot here. She had some confusion as to the rules that's been picked up on as a reason for vote. This makes little sense to me. I'd like to hear more from Spawn, but I don't think her question says anything towards her quackiness.

Nilp: Voted for himself...seems to be standard operating procedure. Withholding judgment (or any sort of opinion, really) until tomorrow.

I wanted to include these two quotes as they are about our two known ducks. She seems to cover her bases on both of them being moderately neutral which always is suspicous to me.

Post 105

Suspects Roa, Mith, and Sleepy all who are known innocents, not that it means anything but it is noteworthy.

Post 107

Jokes with me about going to my grandma's house and decides to give Nogrod the benefit of the doubt.

Post 111

She attacks Roa for being the one inciting Nogrod and using it as a means to find him suspicious.

Post 114

I am pretty unsure where my vote is going to go, though, and I don't really want to widen the vote any further. I think I'm going to go with...

(removed plus symbols) Sleepy. I don't think we can afford to get rid of Nilp day 1. The suicide thing is odd, but normal. I'd like to stay out of the whole Sleepy/Nilp thing, but not if I have to leave 2 hours before sundown. I'll see how things look tomorrow.

A very interesting statement and it could go either way as to the meaning but with prior evidence it appears Ducky to me.

Post 293

Mainly asserts her belief that Glirdan is the true owl and Mith is the goose. Thinks that I am guilty and that my goose/owl talk were instructions. She does vote for Spawn at this time, but she perhaps truly believed that Glirdan was the owl because he 'knew' Spawn was the Duck as did she.

Post 294

Apologizes for sounding testy

Post 301

Outlines her suspicions but forgets Lalaith and Spawn at a minimum but doesn't really say much of any great significance. She does say, however, that she still thinks Glirdan is the owl. I can see that if she believes Glirdan to be the owl why she would forgo talking about Spawn but Lalaith is noteworthy.

Post 328

Says in the confusion yesterday that she missed Glirdan dreamt of SpM.


Well what to make of it all? Why there is no conclusive evidence there is a lot of substantial points that point to possible guilt. I will try to get to Kath but I'm pretty sure that I won't get to it today.

Cross posted with SpM

[mormegil]

Well I'm certain now that I won't get to Kath as she has 28 posts.

++JennyHallu

She seems guilty after my analysis I feel comfortable enough and I don't know if she'll turn up in the next hour; I tried to wait but I cannot wait any longer.

[Valier]

Ang --> Morm (Morm1)
Lote --> Mith (Morm1, Mith1)
Mith --> Jenny (Morm1, Mith1, Jenny1)
Non-Cailin--> Jenny (Morm1, Mith1, Jenny2)
Kath --> Morm (Morm2, Mith1, Jenny2)
Nogrod --> Lote22 (Morm2, Mith1,Jenny2,lote1)
Sauce-->Mormegil (Morm3, Mith1, Jenny2, Lote1)
Mormegil-->Jenny (Morm3, Mith1, Jenny3,Lote1)

Well this is spread out......I am thoroughly confused and a little hard done by, all this stuff about two Owls I don't think is quite fair...but if DiamondGoddess says ok then whatever......(As she looks down on us, her Lab rats..Bwahaha) So I still feel inclined to vote for Mith, then we still have Glirdan the "Owl" left...hopefully he can be protected and get a dream in.....Or the other way round, but didn't the Nightinggale protect Mith last night? If so then I think she should go, since we only need one Owl and she will more than likely get nabbed by the duck tonight if she is the Owl, then we can see her identity....

.AAAAHHHHH I am confusing myself!!!....Ok I will take a little longer to think, then I will vote.

[Kath]

Ok, let me try and have a think about this.

1) Mith is the real Owl and Glirdan is the Goose - therefore we must assume Nogrod, Ang and SPM are innocent.

2) Glirdan is the real Owl and Mith is the Goose - therefore we assume SPM is innocent.

3) Neither is the Owl, one is the Goose and one an innocent - therefore no one has been proved innocent.

The most likely of these (to me) is the first one.

This means that the list of knowns is:
SPM
Nogrod
Ang
Mith

Unknowns:
Glirdan (Goose, Duck or innocent?)
morm
Valier
Kath
Cailin
Lote
Jenny

Out of that list I personally consider Lote innocent, because of that newbie vote for Nilp the first Day. Her vote for Mith toDay is a little disconcerting but I still think benefit of the doubt status should be given.

The one I want to know about the most is morm. This is not unusual for me, and I would rather it be done via a dream than a lynch as if he is innocent he could be a great help in future Days. However, as of this moment I am not suspicious enough of anyone else (except Glirdan) to consider voting for them, and so my vote will most likely go to morm toDay.

I agree though with not trying to lynch either Glirdan or Mith toDay. We can't risk losing the real Owl when they still have this chance to dream.