Tol-in-Gaurhoth XX: Wereorc I: The elves cannot hide themselves much longer.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

I'm sorry I keep living...

But how can I be looking more and more suspicious when I actually managed to do my job last night?

And since you asked, I protected Celuien last Night.

Why do you think that no one else has come forward as the ranger?

Because maybe I am exactly what I say I am.

Lynch me if you dare. I am no orc. You'll only waste time and lose someone who is actually trying to help.

[Grendelien]

First of all, I just want to congratulate the Ranger on another fantasic choice!!
Secondly, I received the dream last night confirming Zali's innocence.

[Grendelien]

Oh, and as a quick follow-up, you can trust Celuien as well...That means we have three known innocents, and one (Nogrod) very likely innocent!

[Grendelien]

Ok, assuming Nogrod is innocent, which I believe, we have four unknowns: Roa, Naria, Caranlondien, and myself.

I was very suspicious of Roa at the time of my vote, but I must say that Nogrod's analysis of Roa caused my suspicions of her to dwindle. I went back and looked at some of her posts, and one particularly caught my eye that I hadn't considered before:

Originally Posted by Roa

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sleepy
This is very short and based entirely on one point, make of it what you will. Naria dreamed of Nogrod, told orc-friend Grendelien. Grendelien immediatly backs off Nogrod.


The problem with this is what Farael told us at the beginning- the dreams come at the very end of the Night, just as the Day starts. There would be no time for Naria to inform Grendelien.

This may not be a good reason for thinking her less suspicious...however, I was thinking that why would Roa, if she were an orc, make a post like this when suspicions of me were very high? If she and I were orcs, it would be understandable, but I am not an orc. I don't know if this is a significant quote to use, because anyone could have corrected Sleepy, but the fact that she responded first to his post gives evidence of sincerity...

I'm not going to rule out the possibility that Roa is an orc. Yet, my suspicions of her have dropped. That being said, Caranlondien and Naria are looking most suspicious to me at this point.

[Grendelien]

I found another post by Roa that could be interpretted as being sincere (please, anyone stop me if you think these posts are irrelevant):

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Does anyone know, whether Find and Jenny know each other? I'm getting also very wary about this "I doubt she would make this kind of move" and "given her skill" -stuff. She would know, if they had PM'd, otherwise - ragerding this game and Jenny's posts there... probably not being so sure about that - given her apparent intelligence.

Originally Posted by Roa

Nogrod, Fin only has 19 posts total on the downs. 17 of those are in this thread. Extended interaction with Jenny on the Down's isn't possible, and niether have ever mentioned knowing each other outside the downs.

Once again, Roa responds rather quickly to Nogrod's question. Even though she thought Findeasea was an orc and voted for her, she ruled out something that would shine more light on Findeasea's guilt. If Roa were an orc, would she respond to a question that could possibly be further reason to lynch an innocent? It seems, to me at least, that she is trying to answer as truthfully as possible. However, as Nogrod said, Roa could be playing very craftily. It's up for debate.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

And yes, I agree that the dreamers should reveal dreams--We could really use a nudge in the right direction.

I am also annoyed and not thinking too clearly because I find it ironic that when I actually do my job for once, I'm still getting suspicion, suspicion, and more suspicion.

So fine. I'm sick of defending myself because all I'll do is repeat the same old things over and over--the Orcs are doing a good job of discrediting me.

So I'm done defending myself.

I'm done repeating myself.

I'll say again--lynch me if you want, but it will only put you one step closer to losing.

ETA: Cross-posted with Grendelien--Thank you very much

[Caranlondien]

Wow, I'm glad the Shaman chose to dream of you, Zali! I trust Grendelien's dream, although, of course, that doesn't mean I trust her. So now (I, at least) know that the orcs are among Naria, Roa, and Grendelien. The problem is, when I look at those three, they all look suspicious... but one of them is innocent.

Grendelien makes some good points about Roa, but I still think she's suspicious-looking. She appears helpful, but I can't get much of substance out of her posts. I've been so suspicious of her for the last few Days that I think I'll have to go back over her posts to be fair. As for your latest point, Grend, Roa was actually casting more suspicion on Findeasea by implying that the only way Find would have known about Jenny's style would be through the PMs of wereorcs.

Grendelien looks to be in a good position by revealing the dream and upping the number of known innocents. Could be an innocent truly trying to help, could be an orc hoping the points she earns here will protect her from being lynched. And, depending on Roa's status, she may be defending a fellow orc.

Naria is the one I suspect most right now. Her most recent post seems almost like a set-up for her partner orc to reveal as the "Ranger":

Originally Posted by Naria

I too am getting very worried about why Zali is still alive. I think she may be lying through her rotten little Orc teeth. I mean come on, one night....sure, two nights....maybe, but three nights....tsk, I really doubt that a werecreature would want to carry on wanting to kill villagers and have an obstacle in the way like the Ranger night after night. Yeah, maybe it could have been part of their plan, but I highly doubt that it would go on for this long. I would like to believe that she is the Ranger(and did) but this is just too much to swallow. Since she has already admitted to being the Ranger than it probably won't bother her too much to tell us who she protected last night.

She also continue to push Celuien on the Shaman-business, perhaps an orcish move to get their Shaman-suspect lynched the after a failed attempt at killing her last night?

My vote toDay may very well be for Naria. Her post prior to toDay's revelations makes me strongly suspect her.

EDIT: replaced "make" with "makes" - subject verb agreement is important!

[Grendelien]

Oh, I interpretted the reply as being that there was no correspondence between Jenny and Findeasea. I see your point now, about PMing.

[Caranlondien]

I also don't know if Grendelien would be so foolish as to connect herself so strongly with a guilty Roa, so I'm not sure that's really a point against her. Unless she's finally making a newbie mistake :P

EDIT: x-posted with Grendelien

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Ok, so now that I've had my mini-rant here (see my last two posts), I feel like I should get down to business.

I think it is highly likely that Naria will be getting a vote from me again toDay. It's not really a retribution for suspecting me so strongly--I'd be put off by her post whether or not its target was me. It would probably be almost funny if I was an orc: I'd be able to smile and perhaps make the part about me "lying through...orc-teeth" my sig line. However, I agree with Caranlodien that her last post does look like a set-up for some other orc to come along and say that they were really the ranger.

And Naria, if you're so convinced I'm an orc, why did you want to know who I protected last night--it's obvious that whatever I say, you can and will use against me.

And about Naria, herself, I think that she is either an orc (most likely) or just very ensnared by orcish plans. She has given a prime example of what everyone else is SUPPOSED to think about me (except that I am confirmed innocent now--thanks, Grendelien).

I'm much more inclined to think she's an orc, though.

[Naria]

First off, I would like to offer my apologies to Zali. We needed to know for sure what was going on and what your role was. Yes you came out and declared yourself the Ranger, but that didn't necessarily mean you were(for sure). Thanks to Gren for saying that yes you are the Ranger, I have no doubts whatsoever now that you are the Ranger.

I also added Celuien in there because I thought that she may be the true Ranger and just beating around the bush about it. I honestly didn't think that she was faking to be the Shaman....her hints came across to me as Rangerish. Now that I know better of the two of you, there will be no more talk from me about this issue. So thanks to both of you for what you have done for the village.


I know that I am innocent and implore you all to trust me on this
Nogrod
Sleepy
Zali
Celuien

Then there's just two left(Orcs)
Caran
Gren

Roa, I just don't know about....but I believe her to be innocent.

[Nogrod]

I love the news concerning Zali!
(Purely from villager's point of view, her orcishness revealed, would of course have been "better", but I have kind of trusted Zali so far, so I'm very happy with this)

It's looking far better now, anyhow. Okay, there is this chance of 1/4 x 1/8 =1/32 (? - I'm so terribly bad in probability maths), that Grendelien getting the dream is an orc and Zali another - and that the dream was of Zali. I wouldn't bet on it a penny, or a cent just now. If a rivalling ranger-claim comes forwards, I might think of it - we all should - but before it, I'm taking this as granted from now on. We have under four hours of time, and yet to pick a wolf today.

So I just came back, and have to see the things again...

EDIT: (again...) X-posted with Naria

[Caranlondien]

I have to go eat, and I’ve only gotten through Day 3 on my analysis of Roa (I already analyzed her Day 1 & 2, and I just don’t have the energy to go back through it).

Roa:

[B]Day Three[B]

#237: Wonders why the orcs killed Spawn instead of Zali. Thinks perhaps Jenny didn’t mention any of the other orcs, although maybe she did. Says we can’t be sure that Zali is the Ranger. Says we should go back and figure out why the orcs killed Spawn.

#239: Thinks it’s strange that Nogrod would suggest we don’t try to figure out the orcs’ strategy until toMorrow.

#244: Clarifies that she just doesn’t want us to proceed with the assumption that Zali is innocent. Doesn’t think the true Ranger should come out if Zali is lying. Also thinks we shouldn’t agonize over Jenny’s final posts, as they’ll likely just distract and confuse us.

#245: Says she’s just tossing out possibilities.

#274: Says that just because Nogrod got a dream doesn’t mean he’s innocent. Says Diamond isn’t above suspicion just because Jenny was attacking her.

#289: Lists those who Jenny did not mention (all of whom are now proven innocents except me). Says that from this list, she most suspects Kitanna. Wonders about Zali’s statement that Jenny was too good of a player, since Zali didn’t seem to make much of a case against her.

#290: Lists the vote count, wonders who we haven’t heard from so far.

#293: Summarizes Kitanna’s actions so far.

#294: Analyzes summary on Kitanna. Says she seems careful and she’d like to hear more from her.

#295: Says that only [B]Legolas iS[/U] hasn’t posted yet.

#300: Warns Zali to be careful about what she says, if she really is the Ranger, as the orcs might figure out whom she’s going to protect.

#302: Votes for Kitanna; mistakes closing time as an hour earlier.

#305: Says it doesn’t really matter that she mistook the time, as her opinion probably won’t change.

#309: Asks Grendelien if she has anything to add, since she’s here.

#312: Decries self-voters, saying that if Kitanna truly is innocent, she’d help the village more by trying to prove that than by helping to lynch herself. Says that it actually makes her look more like an orc trying to bluff her way out of dying.

#315: In response to Nogrod’s analysis of Caran, points out that two quotes of mine which Nogrod said are contradictory aren’t.

#318: Responds to Nogrod’s response.

#319: Relists vote count.

#331: Lists those who have already voted.

#333: Urges those left to vote to hurry. (There are a couple more posts like this, so I’ll just leave them out).

#336: Defends herself against Findeasea’s accusations. Says she thinks she has been contributing a great deal.

My thoughts: It’s funny, I only noticed this because in one of her early posts, she asked if she could call me “Caran”, but I noticed that she calls Grendelien “Gren” when no one else has. Perhaps she didn’t feel like typing in the whole name, or perhaps she got used to the “Gren” thing PM-ing the Night before…

What really strikes me, though, is her apparent helpfulness, while she really says very little besides poking holes in people’s theories and generally promoting confusion.

[Roa_Aoife]

Grendelien, how do you know we can trust Celuien?

This is likely the last post I can make today, sorry. (Visiting friends). I don't know if I trust Grendelien or Zali. By all accounts, Zali shouldn't be alive. It's possible that this is just a last chance attempt by the Orcs to protect their own and force the real protector out into the open. Certainly we wouldn't suspect again until it was too late. I urge the village to be careful in trusting these two. Something about this is a little too convenient.

++Zali

I can't believe she would be the real ranger and still alive after this.

Edit: Cross posted with last three.

[Nogrod]

Roa!

You are either too sincere, or then a frustrated wolf. And I really can't say which, for now...

But I must say, that vote of yours looks very suspicious! For your chance of being right seems to be 1/32. Well, that's a chance - and we should not openly outrule it, but still, I wouldn't bet on it...

Must come back to reading this.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Azaelia of Willowbottom

And since you asked, I protected Celuien last Night.

Thank you, Zali!

(See. I told you all I was was innocent. )

If you'll excuse me for about 45 minutes, I just got home from work, and would like to make myself some dinner before immersing myself in village business once again.

Roa continues to be my main suspect, in case you're wondering.

[Nogrod]

If, what I wrote, makes sense...

We have “proven” innocents:
Sleepy: I know that, as I got the PM
Nogrod: dreamt by Naria
Zali: dreamt by Grendelien & giving us a wolf

We might have some reason to believe on the innocence of:
Celuien: reasonable pattern of behaviour, backed by Zali

Somewhat innocent, although a bit unnervingly:
Grendelien: revealing Zali dream – might play also?

Naria: revealing my innocence, first today suspecting Zali & Grend – after revealment leaving both out of speculation, says had seen Celuien as a ranger and played along by suspecting her – trying to cover her path?

Totally unknown = detached from this revelation stuff:
Roa: some good arguments on behalf her innocence (the anxiety over Diamond...), some odd things to have done – f.ex. today: first saying, that she’s traveling today and not back until the last hours + promising to have something interesting to say then. Next call in: vote for Zali + saying visiting friends. If Celuien-theory is right: she's a wolf.

Caranlodien: Played well and intelligently. Today somewhat confusing (might be understandable - I am confused too): First suspects Zali & Celuien's thought of Naria being innocent. Then saying orcs are Naria, Roa or Grendelien (all suspicious) – adding that Grend is not so much so. Next suspecting Roa by the way she addressed Grendelien as Grend just by that and wasked permission to use Caran from her...

[Nogrod]

So my top suspicions at the moment (not reflected through, but now), at the order of suspicion, and at relative distance away from each other...

Naria / Roa


Caranlodien


Grendelien

Relatively assured of innocence:
Celuien

Zali


So the highest is the most suspicious, the lowest the least, regarding the whole list... But really: I don't know about these relative merits, this is just a hunch based on reasoning (=everyone's playing well)

PS. Remember: I may be somewhat skilled in bringing forward points or theories, but my hunches are bad indeed (in four WW-games this far, I have been proven right twice - or three times: and you just wonder the number of cases from which these three must be deducted... )

[Celuien]

(Lovely, lovely chicken, rice, string beans and garlic bread. )

Where was I? Right. I'll borrow Nogrod's format and present my suspect list, in order:

Roa
Caranlondien

Naria


Grendelien

Proven innocent:
Zali
Nogrod
Sleepy
Me (check out the math below)

I'll start out with Grendelien, as my least suspicious un-proven innocent.

Throughout the game, Grendelien has been insightful and helpful. I think revealing the dream to some extent confirms her innocence. I'll posit that an Orc in receipt of a dream about Zali would be hesitant to reveal it (choosing instead to remain silent - no way for us to know who got the dream and was Orcishly holding out even if the Shaman did come forward and list who was dreamt of) because that dream gave two confirmed innocents: Zali and me. There's no way for me to be an Orc if Zali guarded me. And if you want to go with the highly spurious theory that Zali is not what she claims to be, by the way, I'm still exonerated, because that theory requires Grendelien to lie as well, which would make Zali and Grendelien the last two Orcs. All three of us couldn't be lying. But that's probably the nuttiest argument that could be made right now in the abscene of an alternative Ranger claimant appearing at a fairly critical point.

No matter how you slice it, Grendelien's revealing the dream increases the pool of knowns significantly and greatly narrows the field of Orc suspects.

Therefore, because Grendelien narrowed the unknown pool to herself, Naria, Caran and Roa, I find her most probably innocent.

As for Naria, I've already made my case about her. Nogrod and Zali - there's a very good reason for her to have suspected me yesterday, and for her to have voiced suspicion of you, Zali. For that reason, I'm a bit hesitant to vote for her. See if you can work out what that reason is. I'm curious to see if you come to the same conclusion if you work from the idea that she's innocent. I could be all wet, but you never know...

Which leaves Roa and Caran. Actually, besides my process of elimination, the two of them seemed oddly coordinated in their attack on me today. Almost as if they'd worked it out beforehand. Notice that both of them react strongly to my list of remaining unknowns. Of the two, Roa is still my top suspect because of what I said before, and because of this post:

Originally Posted by Orc Aoife

Grendelien, how do you know we can trust Celuien?

This is likely the last post I can make today, sorry. (Visiting friends). I don't know if I trust Grendelien or Zali. By all accounts, Zali shouldn't be alive. It's possible that this is just a last chance attempt by the Orcs to protect their own and force the real protector out into the open. Certainly we wouldn't suspect again until it was too late. I urge the village to be careful in trusting these two. Something about this is a little too convenient.

(plusses removed by me)Zali

I can't believe she would be the real ranger and still alive after this.

As I've said before, it makes no sense at this point for Zali not to be the Ranger. The real one would/should have come forward by now. And how can she seriously continue to imply suspicion of me with that opening question if she also believes that Zali is not the Ranger, and that Grendelien by extension is the second Orc? 3>2.

And so my vote, once again, goes to

++ROA_AOIFE

PS to Sleepy;

I don't have the time to post a good post right now but I just wanted to tell Celuien that she did a good job playing along. Just a note to everyone, if I really thought she was the shaman I wouldn't have said it.

Thanks. I sort of figured that's what you were up to. Quite an inspiration.

[Nogrod]

Today's vote:

Roa --> Zali (Zali 1)

Where are you?

Without another ranger's dream, we should not kill Zali... = my voting for someone else wouldn't matter, as Zali has had the first vote...

EDIT: X-posted with Celuien

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Where are you?

Oh, I'm here. Just a slow typer.

[Nogrod]

As we seem to not have seen any rivalling ranger claims, I'm believing the innocence of Zali and by that way, of Celuien (her good argumets were a kind of affirmation to me).

So. Maybe I was wrong with Roa last night (**hatestoadmit**)? Maybe her apparent distress about Diamond's (innocent!) life was just a fake one? I'm not totally easy with this one, but then again, Celuien's (supposedly innocent) theory on Spawn seership would point quite openly to Roa...

Twenty minutes, and wants to hear from you others too.

[Nogrod]

Roa --> Zali (Zali 1)
Celuien --> Roa (Zali 1, Roa 1)

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Ok, my clock is majorly freaking me out--I keep thinking I only have about 5 minutes, so I'm just going to vote now...though I'd like to hear from Sleepy, who hasn't shown up since his early post--this isn't like him.

I'm voting

++ROA

today, for reasons already outlined in my previous post.

And if I'm dead toMorrow, keep an eye on Naria, since I think she's the other orc.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Roa's last post has me worried...and not just because she voted for me. Maybe I seem a little defensive, but it is, as you all must know, very difficult when you know you are innocent and others just don't see reason.

That said, I am in agreement with Nogrod about the order of my suspicion--My top two are Roa and Naria.

Naria's most recent post looks like a hasty cover-up to me, a quick back-tread in an attempt to avoid suspicion...Something about this doesn't feel quite right.

And I must say that Roa's vote for me lacks decisive proof that Grendelien's dream should not be trusted, and her main reason for lynching me in particular is that I have been alive for too long, and suggests that my continued survival is an orc plot to get the real ranger to come forward.

Well. I think that Roa is playing more dangerously, and I'm still not sure quite how she managed to escape the noose yesterday. So I will be voting for her, unless something changes in the remaining 20 or so minutes we have in the game.

Edited to fix time--my clock is fast.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Azaelia of Willowbottom

Well. I think that Roa is playing more dangerously, and I'm still not sure quite how she managed to escape the noose yesterday.

Well there is an answer to that... I was there, believing Roa's troubledness in front of Diamond being killed. And if she is a wolf - which I'm inclined to believe now. I'll just have to bow to her: wonderful performance!

[Nogrod]

Ok. Why are we hiding?

I'll go for it, and try to make well my last night...

++ Roa