Tol-in-Gaurhoth XX: Wereorc I: The elves cannot hide themselves much longer. - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Celuien · 04-21-2006, 04:14 AM

And finally, my reason for trusting Naria can be boiled down to a simple statement or two. The Orcs have no reason to openly suspect or attack a Shaman candidate during the day because it would like mighty bad for them if I had been the Shaman and they got me lynched. So that makes me a bit more dangerous to attack in the day than your typical ordo. Innocents, however, have every reason to suspect people who are going around and leaving vague, cryptic hints of giftedness, then refusing to follow up on them. So since Naria led off the suspicion of me yesterday, I tend to trust her.

Sleepy Ranger · 04-21-2006, 04:24 AM

I don't have the time to post a good post right now but I just wanted to tell Celuien that she did a good job playing along. Just a note to everyone, if I really thought she was the shaman I wouldn't have said it.

Also, whoever had the dream please come forward. Alright people, we're in dire straits at the moment. I'm almost certain we'll have more than one person coming forward with a dream, one will be true the other will be a orc calling another orc an innocent or an innocent a orc. I only hope that the dream went to Nogrod again (highly doubted, he would probably have revealed it in his first post) because it didn't come to me. If we're lucky then Zali got it again but I don't know, this will be a very confusing day, mark my words.

Roa_Aoife · 04-21-2006, 07:45 AM

Celuien, your calculations are misleading. You and Naria are "knowns" only to you. (Though I don't see how attacking a possible Shaman during the day is grounds for trust.... ) Not only that, you are the only person here (so far) who still thinks Zali is a definite known. Rather than just three unknowns, we have six- You, myself, Naria, Zali, Caran, and Grendelien. Hopefully that will change when the dreamer comes forward. But if you're going to help the village, then you have to take our point of view into account. If you're an orc, what more perfect way to dwindle the numbers of the villagers while leaving yourself untouched than to have us believe that we only have three unknowns, that you, conveniently, are not a part of?

EDIT: I will be traveling today, so I will likely not be back on till a few hours before the end. I ask that most voting holds till then (if you can't, then you can't) because I may just have something interesting to say.

Caranlondien · 04-21-2006, 07:51 AM

Quick stop in, then I have to leave; I'll be back in 4 hours or so.

I, too, think Zali is looking more and more suspicious. And so I agree that if she's not the Ranger, the true Ranger should come forward now.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Celuien

At any rate, I would advocate lynching either Roa, Caran, or Grendelien today. If we make a mistake today, the remaining Orcs will then be identified. And the numbers will go like this:

NOW: 7:2
If incorrect, then
TOMORROW: 5:2
Then we’d know who to get, so we’d end the day at 5:1, start the next day at 4:1 and then win the game.

Celuien, one thing about your plan; if you and Naria are the orcs, it ensures that you will win! If you're innocent, I'm sorry, but you must see that we don't know you are, unless a known innocent comes forward with a dream about you toDay.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Roa

Nogrod · 04-21-2006, 08:04 AM

I have a meeting I must attend to. I'll be back with more thoughtful (I hope) discussion in some hours time (six-seven hours before the deadline).

Just a few suggestions, hastily made (everyone should of course trust in their own judgements, but consider these).

Dreamer: come out!

Ranger (if not Zali): really consider coming out! (look below)

Shaman: wait for the two above... consider it then again (if we have even one believable suspect today, it might be best that you remain silent?)

Celuien is looking a bit weird now. F.ex. her Spawn-theory holds only if Zali is the real ranger! So if our ranger is not Zali, the true ranger's revealment of herself might give us two orcs in one (Zali & Celuien)?

Think...

Celuien · 04-21-2006, 09:56 AM

I very well know that I'm not a known innocent. Nor are Naria or Zali. They merely appear more likely innocent than not to me for reasons I've given.

Honestly, if you think I'm an Orc, go ahead and lynch me. I don't care because the village should still have enough information at this point to win. All you'll find out is that I've been telling the truth.

Waiting on Zali...

Celuien · 04-21-2006, 10:12 AM

By the way, Roa, I didn't say that I'm a known, nor did I say Naria is a known. I said that from my perspective - since I know that I'm not an Orc - the most likely candidates are you, Caran and Grendelien. That list is purely my opinion, and it happens to be an opinion I believe fairly strongly. So I presented my thought process for how I'm probably going to behave today. Interesting way to twist my post.

Quote:

Though I don't see how attacking a possible Shaman during the day is grounds for trust

Think about it. Doesn't it look sort of bad to actively try to get a leading gifted candidate lynched? If you're an Orc, you don't want to do that because when the person is either found innocent or gifted, you're going to look very suspicious, so I would have been a bad, bad daytime candidate for an Orc to attack yesteday. On the other hand, it makes sense for an Ordo to question someone who's hinting at giftedness because innocents have cause for concern over imposters. Thus Naria's suspicion of me is grounds for me to trust her. You don't have to buy into the theory yet, but that's where I'm coming from with my suspicions. And it's where I think the village's time would be best spent on analysis.

I thought I explained that hypothesis.

Celuien · 04-21-2006, 10:17 AM

Sorry for tripling, but I'm too annoyed and discombobulated to think straight right now.

Please, Ranger, let us know who you guarded last night.

And let me add my voice to those asking for outstanding unrevealed dreams.

04-21-2006, 04:14 AM	#1
Celuien Riveting Ribbiter Join Date: May 2005 Location: Assigned to Mordor Posts: 1,767	I promise, this is my last post for a while! I really need to leave anyway. And finally, my reason for trusting Naria can be boiled down to a simple statement or two. The Orcs have no reason to openly suspect or attack a Shaman candidate during the day because it would like mighty bad for them if I had been the Shaman and they got me lynched. So that makes me a bit more dangerous to attack in the day than your typical ordo. Innocents, however, have every reason to suspect people who are going around and leaving vague, cryptic hints of giftedness, then refusing to follow up on them. So since Naria led off the suspicion of me yesterday, I tend to trust her. __________________ People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect. But actually, from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint, it's more like a big ball of wibbly-wobbly, timey-wimey... stuff.

04-21-2006, 04:24 AM	#2
Sleepy Ranger Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: On the field, kissing the 'Downs crest Posts: 1,654	I don't have the time to post a good post right now but I just wanted to tell Celuien that she did a good job playing along. Just a note to everyone, if I really thought she was the shaman I wouldn't have said it. Also, whoever had the dream please come forward. Alright people, we're in dire straits at the moment. I'm almost certain we'll have more than one person coming forward with a dream, one will be true the other will be a orc calling another orc an innocent or an innocent a orc. I only hope that the dream went to Nogrod again (highly doubted, he would probably have revealed it in his first post) because it didn't come to me. If we're lucky then Zali got it again but I don't know, this will be a very confusing day, mark my words. __________________ And tonight we can truly say, together we're invincible... Middle-Earth Football World Cup 2007

04-21-2006, 07:45 AM	#3
Roa_Aoife Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it. Posts: 1,696	Celuien, your calculations are misleading. You and Naria are "knowns" only to you. (Though I don't see how attacking a possible Shaman during the day is grounds for trust.... ) Not only that, you are the only person here (so far) who still thinks Zali is a definite known. Rather than just three unknowns, we have six- You, myself, Naria, Zali, Caran, and Grendelien. Hopefully that will change when the dreamer comes forward. But if you're going to help the village, then you have to take our point of view into account. If you're an orc, what more perfect way to dwindle the numbers of the villagers while leaving yourself untouched than to have us believe that we only have three unknowns, that you, conveniently, are not a part of? EDIT: I will be traveling today, so I will likely not be back on till a few hours before the end. I ask that most voting holds till then (if you can't, then you can't) because I may just have something interesting to say. __________________ We can't all be Roas* when it comes to analysing...* -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen

04-21-2006, 08:04 AM	#5
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	I have a meeting I must attend to. I'll be back with more thoughtful (I hope) discussion in some hours time (six-seven hours before the deadline). Just a few suggestions, hastily made (everyone should of course trust in their own judgements, but consider these). Dreamer: come out! Ranger (if not Zali): really consider coming out! (look below) Shaman: wait for the two above... consider it then again (if we have even one believable suspect today, it might be best that you remain silent?) Celuien is looking a bit weird now. F.ex. her Spawn-theory holds only if Zali is the real ranger! So if our ranger is not Zali, the true ranger's revealment of herself might give us two orcs in one (Zali & Celuien)? Think... __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

04-21-2006, 09:56 AM	#6
Celuien Riveting Ribbiter Join Date: May 2005 Location: Assigned to Mordor Posts: 1,767	I very well know that I'm not a known innocent. Nor are Naria or Zali. They merely appear more likely innocent than not to me for reasons I've given. Honestly, if you think I'm an Orc, go ahead and lynch me. I don't care because the village should still have enough information at this point to win. All you'll find out is that I've been telling the truth. Waiting on Zali... __________________ People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect. But actually, from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint, it's more like a big ball of wibbly-wobbly, timey-wimey... stuff.

04-21-2006, 10:17 AM	#8
Celuien Riveting Ribbiter Join Date: May 2005 Location: Assigned to Mordor Posts: 1,767	Sorry for tripling, but I'm too annoyed and discombobulated to think straight right now. Please, Ranger, let us know who you guarded last night. And let me add my voice to those asking for outstanding unrevealed dreams. __________________ People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect. But actually, from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint, it's more like a big ball of wibbly-wobbly, timey-wimey... stuff.