Tol-in-Gaurhoth XX: Wereorc I: The elves cannot hide themselves much longer. - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Naria · 04-17-2006, 01:42 PM

Quote:

I hope I'm not making any mistakes, I'm trusting you on this one JennyHallu, please don't be pushing me the wrong way!

Well Sleepy, just like everyone has been saying Jenny is a smart little weasel!! She is definitely "pushing" you in the wrong direction. Why on earth you would want to believe a werecreature is beyond me! If you are an ordo then you have definitely made a mistake, if you are an orc than it makes perfect sense why you would trust her and vote for me. However, I do believe that Nogrod has dreamt of you and found you to be innocent

.

Once again, though. Nogrod could have dreamt of Sleepy and is just saying that he is an ordo when in fact he could be an orc. Remember the one with the dream can do with the dreamt information as they wish. It would be a very clever plan indeed. Nogrod says, "hey Sleepy is an ordo" when he could be Nogrod's sidekick, meanwhile making himself and Sleepy look like innocents...hmmm. I wouldn't put it past either one of these two to come up with such a dubious plan. However, just food for thought and I will leave this topic for now.

I am going to re-read over everyone's posts and will be back with my findings. It may take me awhile, but I will get it posted.

Nogrod · 04-17-2006, 02:18 PM

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Originally Posted by Naria

Once again, though. Nogrod could have dreamt of Sleepy and is just saying that he is an ordo when in fact he could be an orc. Remember the one with the dream can do with the dreamt information as they wish. It would be a very clever plan indeed. Nogrod says, "hey Sleepy is an ordo" when he could be Nogrod's sidekick, meanwhile making himself and Sleepy look like innocents...hmmm.

Well. I don't like to be this kind of an old grumpy to whine on everything, but just look at what I have said at my first post:

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= Nogrod #2
My basic instinct would say, we just come forwards with them, one by one, as we have them. The orcs possibly won't get very far with lying about them (one "found out" -lie - when the dream goes to an orc that tries to save a fellow - would get another orc lynched immediately?)

And I have tried to make that point all along: the dreamers are not proven innocents, they are vessels to carry the dreams - and given to the wrong hands, they might be deceitful - but not long-lasting ones.

I have not claimed innocence by revealing my dream. I do trust your judgement on that - as Zali will have to trust our judgement over her. We might have reasons against her or then not - and the same goes with me.

I am not so stupid, as to try this kind of gamble, were I an orc. Please. I guess the orc having a dream, should just stay quiet - that would gain some confusion, sooner or later... and would not give the villagers the edge of one votee as the day closes.

But you believe, what you want to believe. I didn't reveal my dream to save my butt - with this I agree with Celuien: better that I go than a gifted going. I revealed it, because it will make the night more confusing for the orcs ("whom to go after?"), and because Sleepy was getting suspected, and I knew he was innocent. Let's not lynch innocents, if we can avoid it. It will be just a couple of days onwards, when the question of pure mass (the ratio between the innocents vs. the orcs) comes forwards and will start to dictate all the things done here...

This to begin with. I'll come back soon with some thoughts about Caran, Find & Grend...

Caranlondien · 04-17-2006, 02:31 PM

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Originally Posted by Sleepy

Grenden seems to be too good to be true at the moment

I have to stick my nose in here and say that I came under suspicion for exactly the same reason in the last WW game... and I was innocent, just doing a darned good job on my own

For now I'm willing to put aside my suspicions of Zali. Right now I'm feeling most suspicious of Nogrod and Kitanna. Typical loud wolf/quiet wolf there (with orcs instead of wolves, of course). And I can't shake my feeling about Roa (I know, I know, I have Analysis Disease, and I can't trust anyone after I've analyzed them). If only I had time to look deeper at the suspects, but, suspicious as it may seem, if I want to eat today I have to run over before class, and I shan't be back until an hour or two before the Day ends.

Grendelien · 04-17-2006, 02:39 PM

I was planning on analyzing other villagers’ posts, but Nogrod’s recent suspicion of me came as a surprise. I was thinking for some time about why he would outwardly suspect me, and I came up with two reasons:

1)Nogrod is an ordo, truthfully revealed the dream he received about Sleepy, and sincerely believes that I am an orc.
2)Nogrod is an orc, truthfully revealed the dream about Sleepy, and believes me to be the Shaman or Ranger. Now, suppose I were lynched and you all found out that I am innocent, Nogrod would appear suspicious. However, he is smart, so why would he put himself in such a suspicious position? I was thinking about this, and it occurred to me that Nogrod knows that we think him smart, so he knows that we would think “why would Nogrod put himself in that position if he were an orc? That’s not smart.” The villagers may think him unlikely of doing such a thing, and he would therefore look less suspicious in the villagers’ eyes.
Then I thought about why Nogrod would use the early post of an innocent villager (Spawn) as backup to accuse me of being an orc. At that point, all posted suspicions had little bases to support the suspicions. Once again, I believe that since Nogrod knows we think he is smart, upon finding out I was innocent the villagers would not bind him to this reason for accusing me because they might find it too weak a reason for an orc to use, thus finding Nogrod to be innocent.

Right now Nogrod seems the most suspicious to me. It is possible that he is an ordo, but my suspicions tell me he could very well be an orc. I realize that this defensive post on my part, and offense against Nogrod appears suspicious, especially if Nogrod does turn out to be innocent. However, I currently believe him to be an orc. I will not vote until later, just in case anything comes up that reveals Nogrod's identity.

Roa_Aoife · 04-17-2006, 02:57 PM

OKay, I'm back in, and I looked at Jenny's posts after the dream reveal to see who she didn't mention. They are:

Legolas in spandex
Kitanna
Celuien
Caranlondien

I already analyzed Caran and Celuien, and they both looked fairly innocent. Or rather, there was nothing that jumped out at me from them. LiS... I sincerly doubt has any special role in this game. That would leave Kitanna. Of course this alone isn't enough to cause great suspicion. I'm going to go back and analyze her to see what I find.

Also, since I was looking for Jenny's posts after the reveal, I found this:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zali

I've been going back and forth about this ever since I got in yesterday night. And subtlety was foiled: Jenny plays too well.

This confused me because I didn't remember her mentioning Jenny before. I went back, and I found only one mention- she disagreed with something Jenny said about Diamond. Not really going "back and forth" about anything. Zali, could you clarify what you meant?

EDIT: Cross posted with Celuien

Roa_Aoife · 04-17-2006, 03:07 PM

It's almost closing time, so here's the vote count:

Kitanna 2
Naria 1

Have we heard from everyone today?

Nogrod · 04-17-2006, 03:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

It's almost closing time, so here's the vote count:

Kitanna 2
Naria 1

Have we heard from everyone today?

2½ hours to go - as we have one more hour by Farael, as the starting was delayed...

But good question. Legolas iS I think I haven't seen, but others missing?

Celuien · 04-17-2006, 02:50 PM

I don't want to vote so early and after having been so relatively quiet today (RL got busy today), but I'm going to have to due to that rehearsal I was talking about lasting until about an hour after the day ends.

++ KITANNA

I'm willing to trust Diamond on this for today, as my suspect has gone up in smoke.

I'm not sure why Sleepy felt compelled to announce that he thinks I'm the Shaman. It's strange, and but for the dream announcing his innocence, I'd have added it to evidence for his being an Orc. I hope that plan of his is working out the way it's supposed to if he's innocent. (Actually, I can think of one reason for innocent-Sleepy to do it, but if he genuinely thinks I'm the Shaman, it doesn't work.)

Ugh. I case I don't survive the night, here's where I was going with Sleepy/Nogrod:

1) Nogrod as an Orc who did receive the dream about Sleepy.
1a) Sleepy is also an Orc and Nogrod used the dream (knowing it would be confirmed as a dream) to show his colleague's 'innocence.' They then planned to out the Shaman the next day with the confirmed innocent of the pair.
1b) Nogrod is an Orc using the dream of an innocent Sleepy as cover. This argument has already been made.

For the options under section 1, I actually think 1a would be the more likely. I'm still a bit perturbed over the 'Celuien is the Shaman' stuff.

2) Nogrod and Sleepy are both innocent.

For the record: This the the theory I currently accept, just because I've been inclined (even without dream evidence) to trust him from the beginning because his behavior has felt innocent to me. But, it's entirely possible that I'm wrong, so, if I'm dead tomorrow, because 1a is plausible, please look in to it for me.

See you in the morning, I hope.

04-17-2006, 03:07 PM	#6
Roa_Aoife Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it. Posts: 1,696	It's almost closing time, so here's the vote count: Kitanna 2 Naria 1 Have we heard from everyone today? __________________ We can't all be Roas* when it comes to analysing...* -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen

04-17-2006, 02:50 PM	#8
Celuien Riveting Ribbiter Join Date: May 2005 Location: Assigned to Mordor Posts: 1,767	I don't want to vote so early and after having been so relatively quiet today (RL got busy today), but I'm going to have to due to that rehearsal I was talking about lasting until about an hour after the day ends. ++ KITANNA I'm willing to trust Diamond on this for today, as my suspect has gone up in smoke. I'm not sure why Sleepy felt compelled to announce that he thinks I'm the Shaman. It's strange, and but for the dream announcing his innocence, I'd have added it to evidence for his being an Orc. I hope that plan of his is working out the way it's supposed to if he's innocent. (Actually, I can think of one reason for innocent-Sleepy to do it, but if he genuinely thinks I'm the Shaman, it doesn't work.) Ugh. I case I don't survive the night, here's where I was going with Sleepy/Nogrod: 1) Nogrod as an Orc who did receive the dream about Sleepy. 1a) Sleepy is also an Orc and Nogrod used the dream (knowing it would be confirmed as a dream) to show his colleague's 'innocence.' They then planned to out the Shaman the next day with the confirmed innocent of the pair. 1b) Nogrod is an Orc using the dream of an innocent Sleepy as cover. This argument has already been made. For the options under section 1, I actually think 1a would be the more likely. I'm still a bit perturbed over the 'Celuien is the Shaman' stuff. 2) Nogrod and Sleepy are both innocent. For the record: This the the theory I currently accept, just because I've been inclined (even without dream evidence) to trust him from the beginning because his behavior has felt innocent to me. But, it's entirely possible that I'm wrong, so, if I'm dead tomorrow, because 1a is plausible, please look in to it for me. See you in the morning, I hope. __________________ People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect. But actually, from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint, it's more like a big ball of wibbly-wobbly, timey-wimey... stuff.

04-17-2006, 02:39 PM	#4
Grendelien Haunting Spirit Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: flat-point high Posts: 52	I was planning on analyzing other villagers’ posts, but Nogrod’s recent suspicion of me came as a surprise. I was thinking for some time about why he would outwardly suspect me, and I came up with two reasons: 1)Nogrod is an ordo, truthfully revealed the dream he received about Sleepy, and sincerely believes that I am an orc. 2)Nogrod is an orc, truthfully revealed the dream about Sleepy, and believes me to be the Shaman or Ranger. Now, suppose I were lynched and you all found out that I am innocent, Nogrod would appear suspicious. However, he is smart, so why would he put himself in such a suspicious position? I was thinking about this, and it occurred to me that Nogrod knows that we think him smart, so he knows that we would think “why would Nogrod put himself in that position if he were an orc? That’s not smart.” The villagers may think him unlikely of doing such a thing, and he would therefore look less suspicious in the villagers’ eyes. Then I thought about why Nogrod would use the early post of an innocent villager (Spawn) as backup to accuse me of being an orc. At that point, all posted suspicions had little bases to support the suspicions. Once again, I believe that since Nogrod knows we think he is smart, upon finding out I was innocent the villagers would not bind him to this reason for accusing me because they might find it too weak a reason for an orc to use, thus finding Nogrod to be innocent. Right now Nogrod seems the most suspicious to me. It is possible that he is an ordo, but my suspicions tell me he could very well be an orc. I realize that this defensive post on my part, and offense against Nogrod appears suspicious, especially if Nogrod does turn out to be innocent. However, I currently believe him to be an orc. I will not vote until later, just in case anything comes up that reveals Nogrod's identity.