Tol-in-Gaurhoth XX: Wereorc I: The elves cannot hide themselves much longer.

[Grendelien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But then there is the question, why didn't she protect her last night?

Assuming Zali is the Ranger, and she really did protect Spawn the first night, Spawn cannot be protected a second night in a row. If Zali remembered this, then why would she have revealed that she protected Spawn the first night, knowing that she can't protect her the second night? It may have been because she wanted us to believe that she truly is the Ranger, and is not lying about it...or it may be because she wanted to gain our support by rescuing an innocent (Spawn), who Zali, if she were an orc, would've already known to be an innocent before the killing.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Grendelien

Assuming Zali is the Ranger, and she really did protect Spawn the first night, Spawn cannot be protected a second night in a row. If Zali remembered this, then why would she have revealed that she protected Spawn the first night, knowing that she can't protect her the second night?

The Orcs knew that Zali protected Spawn. So it was for the benefit of the innocent villagers that she revealed this. Assuming she's been telling the truth. And I think she is, mostly because there was really no need to put Jenny on the chopping block yesterDay. She had no votes. She was successfully flying under most people's radar. It would be a most reckless Orc-on-Orc action to suddenly out her, I think. I do not think it is beneficial to the two remaining Orcs to have lost Jenny the way they did -- as an Orc Zali could only survive for so long pretending to be the Ranger.

[Grendelien]

Originally Posted by Diamond18

The Orcs knew that Zali protected Spawn. So it was for the benefit of the innocent villagers that she revealed this. Assuming she's been telling the truth.

Ahh yes, I forgot about this. Sorry about that. I think I did misinterpret Nogrod's post.

[Diamond18]

People I am most suspicious of:

Kitanna
Naria
Legolas in spandex

These three are all very quiet and have either voiced suspicion for me or voted for me. It is my feeling that at least one of them is an Orc and has been acting as Jenny's accomplice to some extent.

People I am less suspicious of:

Findëasëa
Caranlondien
Grendelien
Celuien

Caran and Celuien both voted for me the first day but seemed to mostly drop their suspicion afterwards. They could be Orcish accomplices who drew back when I showed up to defend myself. Or they could be innocents who joined Jenny's bandwagon because the reasoning looked good. Only, Celuien voted for me first, so if anyone was starting a bandwagon that day, it was her.... Hm.

Findëasëa and Grendelien are on my radar but I haven't got more or less reason to suspect them than anyone else in the first two categories.

People I am least suspicious of:

Azaelia of Willowbottom
Nogrod
Sleepy
Roa_Aoife

[Diamond18]

Okay, boys and girls, this is it for me. I normally don't like to vote so early in the Day, but tomorrow I don't expect to be around hardly at all, and I know I won't be around at the deadline. So there's not much point in putting it off.

+ + Kitanna

If you don't see me at all for the rest of the Day, don't be surprised. I may pop in, but no time for long analysis or anything. If the need should arise for me to defend myself, bloody tough luck. You can look at my earlier posts and imagine what I might say.

[Findëasëa]

It seems that the claims that JennyHallu made before her death were aimed at promoting dissent among people. She mentioned some of the villagers most prominent, if also most questioned, individuals. We know at least one of these people, Spawn, is innocent. For reasons that I state below, I believe that Nogrod is also innocent. The other two she points out as dangerous are Diamond and Roa. Jenny subsequently accused some of the most quiet members of the village including Grendelian, Naria and myself. The separation of these groups seems to me a clear tactic that would cause confusion and disagreement. This is a really intelligent strategy, playing off of the apparent differences between the quiet and more talkative villagers.

I would guess that at least one of the names mentioned is a wereorc. The identities of the wereorcs might be more obvious if she were to leave out or to include both of the wereorcs in either the group of names mentioned or not mentioned. She probably wanted to make the wereorcs as unrelated as possible in people’s minds. Among the first four that she mentions the two that I have not ruled out yet are Diamond and Roa. She points out Naria twice as a wereorc. I might be wrong, but it would seem that this would be too obvious of an approach. A wereorc would most likely not want to draw attention to any sort of connections that could exist. Jenny seemed in control in both her earlier posts and the ones she made after she was made aware of her impending death. I doubt she would make this kind of move. I do not really know about Grendelian, but she does not stick out as suspicious to me as of yet.

I thought it was interesting that she threw more suspicion upon the quiet members of the group. As was discussed earlier, it would make sense if the orcs wanted to throw suspicion upon those in the village with the most contribution, in order to cripple the village and to leave the quiet members to get picked off with little resistance. Jenny’s accusations, therefore, could point towards a loud orc. I know that the statements that Jenny made after learning about her death were meant to confuse and lead us astray, but, given her skill, it would make sense that she put a good deal of thought into her posts so that it would not implicate her fellow orcs.

I have also been thinking of the dream that Nogrod had about Sleepy Ranger. If this is a lie it would be quite a risky move. It involves putting oneself at risk as a known innocent. If he is a wereorc, it could be a cleaver ploy in order to best win over the trust of the people of the village. Nogrod was one of the people yesterday who received enough votes early on to put him at risk for being lynched. I do not think that he would make a desperate move like this in order to defend himself from a lynching today. It would be too transparent, and there is a possibility that it could be easily called into question by any person having the real dream. From this, I am inclined to believe in his innocence.

[Grendelien]

Originally Posted by Findëasëa

I have also been thinking of the dream that Nogrod had about Sleepy Ranger. If this is a lie it would be quite a risky move. It involves putting oneself at risk as a known innocent. If he is a wereorc, it could be a cleaver ploy in order to best win over the trust of the people of the village. Nogrod was one of the people yesterday who received enough votes early on to put him at risk for being lynched. I do not think that he would make a desperate move like this in order to defend himself from a lynching today. It would be too transparent, and there is a possibility that it could be easily called into question by any person having the real dream. From this, I am inclined to believe in his innocence.

I have been thinking the same things, with the exception that the dream really did fall into the hands of Nogrod. I have come up with three possibilities, all of which coincide with Findeasea's post. But please, correct me if any of you find error in my reasons.

Assuming that Nogrod really did receive the dream (which I believe he did, because, as Findeasea stated, it would be too risky for him to lie about receiving the dream), and the dream really was about Sleepy (considering Sleepy's recent posts against Jenny's orcish outbursts could make him seem entirely innocent or entirely guilty, I believe the Shaman did chose Sleepy to dream about) here are some possibilities I came up with:

1) both Nogrod and Sleepy are wereorcs. I don't thnk that Nogrod would lie about Sleepy's nature, because it would just be too risky for them both. If we ever lynched one of them, or if an ordo received a dream about either, both would be done for. They may have done this, hoping that they would kill the Shaman before an ordo receives a dream about them, but it just seems too risky. That may be a risk they are willing to take, but I find it highly unprobable.

2) Nogrod is an orc, and Sleepy is an ordo. If the shaman did choose Sleepy, and the dream happened to fall into the hands of Nogrod, Nogrod could have truthfully revealed that Sleepy is an ordo. This way, if Sleepy were later killed by the remaining wereorcs or lynched and his elfish identity revealed, this would give us reason to believe that Nogrod is an ordo.

3) Both Nogrod and Sleepy are ordos. This seems fairly likely, and I will read over Nogrod's reasons for revealing the dream again in the morning.

As Findeasea stated, there is a chance that Nogrod did not receive the dream and is lying about Sleepy's identity, but I agree that this would be even riskier than receiving the dream and lying about Sleepy.
There is also a chance that the dream was not about Sleepy, and Nogrod is just trying to get the Shaman to say something...but by doing this, even though the orcs would know the identity of the shaman, they would be down to 1. I don't think they would risk lowering their numbers to 1 at this point.

So, based on this, I have a feeling that both Nogrod and Sleepy are innocent, or that Nogrod is an orc and Sleepy is innocent. But please add to/correct anything I said, for the reasons that I give are just thoughts!

[Grendelien]

Nogrod, reading over your post again, were you asking why Zali did not protect Spawn last Night (assuming that Zali did not protect Spawn the first Night)? I don't want to misinterpret your words.