Tol-in-Gaurhoth XX: Wereorc I: The elves cannot hide themselves much longer.

[Grendelien]

First off, I'd like to congratulate the Ranger on a job well done! This is very good news for our village!
[Just as a prewarning, a piece of something or other is stuck under my spacebar, so I apologize in advance if some joined words happen to pass by my superb (ahem) editing skills]

Secondly, I must censure myself for my poor voting grounds. I was intially suspicious of Celuien, and I did question Caranlondien's innocence, but these are terrible reasons to vote for a different (and innocent) person. I should have voted based on my own suspicion of the person, not because I thought those who voted for another were suspicious.

Though I was suspicious (I need to find a synonym for this word) early on, at this point, I can find little evidence, other than my normal paranoia, that Caranlondien is a wereorc. Her posts seem reasonable (gah, more paranoia rising to the surface) and unhasty. If we later discover that Spawn is innocent, this may be some ilk of indication that she is a wereorc...but at this point, everyone is making claims, so I cannot find evidence to prove her guilty.

I am still not convinced that Diamond is innocent, for she seems quick to attack.

My worries about Celuien and Nogrod arose because, despite how Diamond phrased it,...

Originally Posted by Diamond18

Nogrod posts the most of any player, and this is usual for him. He's the first to make suggestions and form theories about how to use the Shaman role.

...I was afraid this normal behavior may be a cover-up. My nature automatically wants to believe the words of leader-like people, so I was rebelling against my instinct, in a sense, by trying to make myself realize that wolves, too, can act normally as a cover-up. This is no reason to believe right off that Nogrod or Celuien are definitely wolves, or are definitely innocent. I just mean to point out that people who post a lot and act normally (or suspiciously), and people who post very little and act suspiciously (or normally) have equal likelihoods of being wolves.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

As it is weekend, I don't have much time to be online, and I'd rather use that time analysing other villagers than defending myself, but since so many of you is now finding me slightly suspicious, I think it's fair to say something about my behaviour yesterday.

Well, Nogrod, I saw that you might be making grounds for a case against me in your post #118 when you started twisting my words.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Spawn #35: Suspecting Diamond for chatting to avoid “under radar” suspicions. Roa about excusing random voting and taking time to answer Jenny’s joke accusation. Findëasëa, for posting only once – then retreating with first-timer issue. Sleepy, for not being serious although saying he is.

In my post #34, I said that we have to start the analyses from something, so I listed things that "had caught my attention". I did not suspect Findëasëa for posting only once. I pointed out that she hadn't posted her own personal views at all. Also, I didn't suspect Sleepy for "not being serious although saying he is". Sleepy did not say that he is serious, he said that Wereorc hunting is serious business. I mentioned that he didn't seem to be taking it very seriously.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Spawn #45 Just votes boldly for Roa, with no further reason given...

Heh, those three dots just give away your attitude towards me. Trying to start a Spawn bandwagon, eh? I said that I needed to vote immediately, so I didn't have time to analyse anything new. Since Roa seemed the most suspicious to me, I voted for her.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I don't claim to have a "case" against Spawn, but would really like to hear Spawn's answers to these questions... (eg. artificial suspicions on Roa + vote with nothing more + asking villagers to play against our own best)

If that's not a case, I don't know what is. I'm sorry if this looks like a knee jerk reaction, but I can't help wondering if you are an orc trying to make flawed accusatons against me hoping that other villagers will buy them, and once I'm found innocent, you can excuse yourself and say that you didn't actually even make a case against me.

I stand behind what I've said earlier. It was my mistake to believe that we would find out if someone had got a dream or not, but that's all. If it looks like "orc-propaganda", then you probably have to vote for me, but I will not defend myself anymore toDay (unless other villagers demand me to answer something).

Hmph, great. I have to go now, but I'll be back later with thoughts about other villagers.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by dancing spawn of ungoliant

It was my mistake to believe that we would find out if someone had got a dream or not, but that's all.

I am quite ready and willing to tone down my suspicion on this part, as I have seen some other villagers thinking the same way. So that might be a misunderstanding, and thence understandable.

But that Roa-case I still wonder, as I can see nothing suspicious in her posts you got yourself attacking against. It honestly looked like trying to make mountain out of a molehill anyways. Maybe that is "the first day" etc., but I'm not sure, whether we should excuse everything by just saying, it's the first day -stuff.

But as one of Spawn's suspicions concerned the random-voting case, I would like to just make a distinction here. For I think there are basically two kinds of "random-voting".

Firstly, you may find yourself in a situation, where you have to vote, and you have nothing to go on with: no theories, no arguments, no reasoned suspicions etc. Then you may vote by hunch: just thinking who feels the worst, or whom your intuition tells you gives out the foulest impression. That's something you may be forced to do, and I myself accept it as a last resort.

Secondly, you may come up with a kind of "technically random" vote. Like using a random generator, or telling you are voting for the seventh people on the list of villagers (or two names under your own) etc. That I think as nasty way of playing. As it is easter-time, I could say, that that is like washing your hands from your vote of guilt... That way you are not answerable of your vote. And that's something suiting the wolves (orcs) just fine - and remember, that person may fool us by stating her/his randomness. That's even more wolvish.

When you give reasons for your votes, or suspicions, they can be publicly tested and valued, but all random-stuff stays outside the discussion forum - and therefore is highly suspicios.

EDIT: PS. My suspicions of Spawn are a prime example of what I meant with this public assessment: as I stated the reasons why I suspected her, she and others could have their say with shared arguments. And because of these comments, I have already declared coming down with part of my suspicions - as we have found a source for that misunderstanding together. This is the way, I think, we should play. Only three orcs around: we others are at the same side!

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Grendelien

Secondly, I must censure myself for my poor voting grounds. I was intially suspicious of Celuien, and I did question Caranlondien's innocence, but these are terrible reasons to vote for a different (and innocent) person. I should have voted based on my own suspicion of the person, not because I thought those who voted for another were suspicious.

Actually, if I may... what's the matter with being suspicious of other people's voting? Voting more than anything reveals people's true agendas.

Who a player does or does not vote for and their reasons for it can be very telling.

I am still not convinced that Diamond is innocent, for she seems quick to attack.

Exactly what do you mean by this? I attacked no one at all (seriously) the first day. My vote for Glirdan was purely a defensive act (better he die than me). How was I quick to attack? I've mostly been responding to accusations so far.

Now, in asking you why you said this I'm not saying it means you're an Orc. I realize I am generally suspicious, since various people have called me suspicious for: posting nonsense, posting analysis, being too defenseive, and being too offensive. Everyone who has accused me can't be an Orc. But I would like some more explanation from you as to this claim.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Grendelien

Secondly, I must censure myself for my poor voting grounds. I was intially suspicious of Celuien, and I did question Caranlondien's innocence, but these are terrible reasons to vote for a different (and innocent) person.

Hey, sorry, I've had a rather busy past few days, so my brain is easily confused. I don't think I understand what this sentence means. You were suspicious of Celuien and Caran, so you voted for Glirdan? I don't get it....

Originally Posted by Diamond

I realize I am generally suspicious, since various people have called me suspicious for: posting nonsense, posting analysis, being too defenseive, and being too offensive. Everyone who has accused me can't be an Orc.

I'm actually with you on this one Diamond. After going back and looking, it seems everyone is trying to find fault with you somehow.

Naria, when I do an analysis, I generally post the summary seperate from my thoughts on it, simply to provide an easy access summary for everyone with out immediately biasing everyone. (I didn't before because it was just going to be a long string of analysis. and I didn't want to get everything muddled up.) I think it's perfectly reasonable that she saved the analysis for later.

Though, speaking about later analysis, Nogrod, what are your thoughts on that whole suspicion thing you posted?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Though, speaking about later analysis, Nogrod, what are your thoughts on that whole suspicion thing you posted?

Sorry. To which "whole suspicion thing" do you refer here? I didn't quite get it...

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

To which "whole suspicion thing" do you refer here?

Right, I need yo be more specific. This whole suspicion thing.

[JennyHallu]

Um...just dropping in...must go cook--I mean prophecy doom to my vegetables.

But: felt this needed to be said.

Nogrod, our mutually suspicious track record may not be at an end: I did not mean my accusation of you as a joke. And I'm growing more suspicious of you. Spawn really looks innocent to me, and apparently to most of the other villagers as well. And even if she isn't, she is too helpful a villager to risk losing this early, especially with the jump we have on the wolves--I mean orcs.

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by Grendelien

I can find little evidence, other than my normal paranoia, that Caranlondien is a wereorc. Her posts seem reasonable (gah, more paranoia rising to the surface) and unhasty. If we later discover that Spawn is innocent, this may be some ilk of indication that she is a wereorc...but at this point, everyone is making claims, so I cannot find evidence to prove her guilty.

Why would finding Spawn to be innocent point to me being a wereorc? After analyzing her, I decided she didn't seem quite so suspicious as Nogrod was making her out to be, and I wanted to hear from her.

Nogrod makes good points, but he also makes me uneasy. Are you suggesting that without well-founded suspicions to go on, we should lynch the quiet people? I can see some of the appeal. It's true, what you said, that quiet people get more and more dangerous as the game goes on. But that's also the sort of plan a bunch of loud orcs would want.

Now, I think I'll analyze Roa and Nogrod, both of whom have seemed helpful so far, and thus whom I am afraid I might overlook.

[Nogrod]

This seems really getting intresting... and my time is zero!

I'm trying to join you as soon as I can!

Just a short note to Caran

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

Nogrod makes good points, but he also makes me uneasy. Are you suggesting that without well-founded suspicions to go on, we should lynch the quiet people? I can see some of the appeal. It's true, what you said, that quiet people get more and more dangerous as the game goes on. But that's also the sort of plan a bunch of loud orcs would want.

Not it isn't. Orcs love those who do nothing, they are easy prey, and not worth killing during the night: the gifteds and the good players are their primary night-targets... during the daytime good players fight back, during the night they can't.


And Jenny: thank's for your kind words again...

[Caranlondien]

I decided to analyze Nogrod first, because when I was part-way through writing my last post, he posted some things that made me more suspicious of him (if you go back to my last post, you'll see I put in some thoughts on his post).

Nogrod:

DAY ONE

#2: Suggests dreamers (besides Shaman) reveal their dreams as they happen.

#4: Defends plan, saying it will force the orcs to react rather than act. Also likes Celuien's suggestion that dreamers leave obscure hints, but thinks it might be too difficult then to determine what was a hint and what was not.

#6: Agrees with Roa that the Shaman role is "interesting" in that once the Shaman dies, we won't be scouring their posts for clues (except, of course, for the first dream).

#26: Thinks many players have made a hasty judgement on his dreamer plan. Says there's no way the orcs could benefit from it.

#32: Corrects Spawn, who had said that once a dreamer dies, we will easily be able to tell whom they dreamt of; says we won't know that person had a dream in the first place. Responds to Jenny's comment that revealing known innocents will help the orcs determine who the Shaman is; says it would also limit the scope for the Shaman about who the orcs are, but can't tell which is "heavier". Finally, says his plan is bad for a different reason: if the Shaman chooses mostly experienced players to dream about, we will be eliminating all those experienced players early (since the orcs would kill them).

#38: Agrees with Jenny that "I agree" stuff with no reasoning looks suspicious. Also finds people who say Day 1 is useless suspicious. Divides the villagers who have spoken so far into 3 groups. (Group 1) He thinks Celuien, Roa, Jenny, Spawn, and Caranlondien have been well-reasoned so far. (Group 2) Thinks Grendelien, Glirdan, Kitanna, Findeasea, and Naria have flawed reasoning (or no reasoning at all) in going against his plan. (Group 3) Thinks Diamond and Sleepy are acting suspiciously.

#41: Pretty much restates previous post, saying he won't vote for Group 1, and is willing to give the newbies from Group 2 the benefit of the doubt. Points out that Azaelia and Legolas iS haven't spoken yet.

#51: Vote count

#54: Responds to Roa's question about time zones.

#56: Tells Findeasea to make her vote bold, tells mod he thinks the vote should count anyway.

#58: Apologizes for accidentally changing his vote count in #51.

#60: New vote count. Doubts his suspicions of Diamond and Glirdan, and asks to hear more from Diamond.

#66: Defends his plan against one attack, but then says again that it's bad for other reasons.

#70: Says Sleepy's confession that he has been trying to get himself lynched confuses him and puts those who haven't voted yet in a weird situation. Edits to say cross-posted with Roa, who suggested Sleepy is trying to go for a record for getting lynched Day 1 or Night 1.

#73: Says Diamond's defense of herself (#71) has eased his suspicion of her.

#78: Lists the leading lynching candidates (Diamond, Glirdan, and Sleepy) and seems to briefly analyze each of them, though I can't make out what he's saying exactly about Glirdan. Lists the others who have not yet voted (Grendelien, Zali, Naria, and Legolas iS)

#85: Cross-posts with a bunch of people, and so doesn't realize he's not the only one left to vote; seems to prefer killing Sleepy (who seemed to want to be lynched), but says it would take another person to help him.

#88: Says since Glirdan's fate is already sealed, he might as well give Sleepy his wish and vote for him. (Votes for Sleepy).

#92: Tells Diamond that analyses have often proved useful.

DAY TWO

#99: Rejoices that Ranger staved off the Orcs' attack, but regrets we lynched an innocent yesterday. Says he felt uneasy about the forerunners (Does he mean he felt suspicious of them, or felt uneasy about lynching any of them? Probably the latter.) Warns he has RL stuff going on, won't be around too much toDay.

#101: Cross-posts a tally of votes with Celuien; says he excuses Legolas iS's no-vote as newbie-ness, and Naria's as computer-problems.

#102: Asks Celuien to analyze the Glirdan vote, and he'll do overall suspicions - innocence -claims.

#106: Responds to Roa, who had said she'll analyze Diamond-voters.

#118: Analysis of who people suspect / who they think is innocent

#122: Comments on the massive amount of analysis; wonders why no one analyzed Spawn, who is high on his suspicion list after doing his analysis. Asks some questions about Spawn's objections to his plan.

#127: Says suspicion of Spawn is because he sees her ideas as orc-helping, yet she has somehow not come under suspicion.

#129: Replies to Legolas iS

#141: Says he is toning down his suspicion of Spawn, but still thinks her attack on Roa is odd, and wonders at her suspicions about random voting. Makes a distinction between a "random" gut vote and a truly random (i.e., roll a die) vote.

#148: Worries that the day is wearing on and we have next to no suspects (Which I have to say is concerning me too). Decides to go by confusion-sowing, and lists Spawn and Celuien as two players whose posts have confused him.

#149: Responds to a question Roa asked him (asks what she's asking about)

#162: Responds to Caran's uneasiness, making a good point I hadn't thought of: a bunch of loud orcs might benefit in the short term by having the village kill all the quiet ones, but overall they'd prefer to have quiet people to hide amongst.

My thoughts: In #60, saying that he doubts his suspicions of the two people at that time in the lead for votes puts him in a very safe position if they're both innocent. Whichever one ends up dying, he can say he didn't think they were guilty. However, if they are both innocent, then it's good he doubts his suspicions of them... hmm, you could take this either way. #66 looks oddly defensive of his plan; I mean, he'd already found a flaw in it himself, so why keep defending it from other attacks?

I have a tendency to begin to suspect whomever I analyze, so I want to be cautious, but Nogrod certainly warrants keeping an eye on.

And I just re-checked the thread and added his latest post (#162). It addresses one of my concerns, and makes me less suspicious of him.

[Celuien]

Right. Loud orcs vs quiet innocents is exactly what a loud orc would want. Then they're doing all of the theorizing and planning to sway the daytime events and killing the more dangerous loud innocents at night. It leaves them completely in charge of everything.

So far the only vote is Kitanna for Diamond. Kitanna's main reason for the vote seems to have been Diamond's statement that she won't be helpful. That statement looked like Diamond just trying to say that she didn't really know anything with certainty, and was followed by this:

I suppose despite being an ordo I could still come up with some genius theory to help figure out who the Orcs are, but I kind of doubt it. Not my area of strength.

...so I thought she was just saying that she didn't feel confident in theorizing without input from revealed dreams.

Of course, Kitanna has now made me rethink my classifications, so while I most likely will not vote for Diamond, she moves to my watch list again.

And, please, Legolas iS, tell us some more about what you're thinking. One liners and silence only benefit the wereorcs. I'm also willing to give you the benefit of the doubt since you have been confused, but you can see that a plan has been floated that would involve lynching quiet villagers such as yourself. I don't want that to happen since even though I have supported actions in that vein before, I don't want to do so unnecessarily or without giving everyone a proper chance to adjust to the game.

[Kitanna]

This will probably be my only post of the day.

the reasons were pretty bad, if you look at them closer)

I don't think Spawn's reasons for suspecting Roa are bad. I wasn't convinced of Roa's guilt because of them, but it did make me go back and have a look at her. I don't see Roa as a major threat right now, but I still wouldn't call Spawn's reasons bad.
[QUOTE]why on earth would an orc lie about the person dreamt of (and get caught by that)[/QUOTE
An orc that sacrifices him/herself in the right manner can lead his/her teammates to a victory. It's not always the case, but it's a possibility.

I'm automatically suspicious of her and automatically trusting of him. So should I trust my gut on these two or realize when I'm not objective enough? I hate to go against my gut, but I hate to be irrational

Diamond said this on the subject of Nogrod and Jenny. While I'm sure most of us have this feeling at the beginning of the game. I'm just worried because if we're wrong about our gut feelings, we could all be in a lot of trouble.

If I was a Seer or a Ranger or a Hunter or whatever, then maybe I'd been in a position to help the village, but as it stands, I know nothing. I really have no purpose in this game but to stay alive and try to figure out who is who.

I find this little bit from Diamond rather unsettling. Everyone in this villager (minus the orcs) is in a position to help. We can all help with well-thought out arguements and if we try to avoid random voting at all costs. Diamond saying she cannot really help the village. It unnerves me anyone would say that and a red flag goes up in my mind. I know bringing up other games is frowned upon, but I've seen Diamond play before and she has been far from unhelpful. So, why call attention to being "unhelpful"? What possible reason can she have to say that? What are you trying to hide yourself from, Diamond?
Also she keeps saying she is an ordo, but the more she says it the more I feel she is anything but an ordo. We all know you can say you're just an innocent villager until the cows come home, but it doesn't make it so. I had very little suspicions of Diamond until I read that post.

Now, if I was an orc, I wouldn't put a fellow Orc's name on the innocent list with only my own alongside. It's not good for the group mentality: what if something happened and I was lynched...then someone might connect us, and we'd be out two.

This little bit of Zali's gives me a little bit of suspicion. I find her relatively innocent, but that post raises a few questions. If Zali is an orc and we lynch her it would seem she's trying to say "if I was an orc I'd never be stupid enough to put my comrade's name on an innocent list." And we are thrown off and ignore Spawn (Spawn was the other name on the innocent list, right?) and it turns out Spawn was an orc all along. Now this is a pretty stupid theory because I don't think Zali would post something so careless if she were an orc. I'll be watching Zali a little closer now, but I don't find her suspicious enough to vote for.

True. It would make more sense for an orc to make an "innocent" pair with an innocent, though (knowing this) I wouldn't put it past a bold orc to point out a second member of the pack on an innocent list. Bluff and double bluff.

I see Celuien and I share the same opinion on this.

Voting more than anything reveals people's true agendas.

Not always, Diamond, not always. Voting does provide the village with a person's true agenda, but people can twist their vote to hide what they're really up to. Looking at votes is a good way to catch someone, but we have to keep in mind it is not foolproof.

Ack! So I've spent about an hour on this reading and commenting as I go, but now I have about three minutes to wrap things up and vote.

++ Diamond

I'm not overly suspicious of Diamond, but her unhelpful post really set off an alarm about her. The fact she said that really got me worried. I just can't shake it.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I find this little bit from Diamond rather unsettling. Everyone in this villager (minus the orcs) is in a position to help. We can all help with well-thought out arguements and if we try to avoid random voting at all costs.

I agree, but mostly what I was responding to in my post was the assertion that my early Day 1 posts were useless (I didn't have anything to go on, and chose to take the opportunity to have fun rather than ulcerate over the Day 1 curse). Then Naria accused me of being unhelpful in my analysis. So, basically, what I wanted to say was "What do you expect from me? Blood?" I will post to the best of my abilities, and if that's deemed not useful enough to the village then I guess I'm bound to die, because this village seems eager to lynch me for lack of substance -- rather than actual Orcishness. I seem to have been dubbed a lack of space early on. So I only feel it fair to point out that if/when I die as an innocent, it will look very bad for those who voted against me because the reasoning isn't very logical.

So, why call attention to being "unhelpful"? What possible reason can she have to say that? What are you trying to hide yourself from, Diamond?

I was merely responding to claims already made against me, re: the unhelpful business.

Also she keeps saying she is an ordo, but the more she says it the more I feel she is anything but an ordo. We all know you can say you're just an innocent villager until the cows come home, but it doesn't make it so. I had very little suspicions of Diamond until I read that post.

Finally, a decent reason for voting against me. I don't mean to reiterate ordo-ness, I just got annoyed (again) be being accused of being a waste of space. If you find loud declarations of ordoness Orcish, than I suppose I do look Orcish from your viewpoint.

And yet, here we go again:

I'm not overly suspicious of Diamond, but her unhelpful post really set off an alarm about her. The fact she said that really got me worried. I just can't shake it.

You're not overly suspicious of me, but you're voting for me for perceived unhelpfulness. So I guess you just think I'm not an asset to the village? Wow. In a game with players like LiS, I'm really actually insulted by this.

Oh well. If I do die, it will be most fun watching you try to figure out which of my accusers had evil intentions.

EDIT: X-posted with everyone in the known universe.

[Legolas in spandex]

If it wasn't obvious, my vote was in my last post. I think the name was Diamond .

[Roa_Aoife]

Legolas,
Why are you voting for Diamond? Can you have posts thatare more than a sentence? We need reasoned argumentments, not random statements. Try to be useful to the village.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Legolas, in order to vote, you have to put the name in a seperate line, bold it, and precede it by two pluses.

Example: (NOTE THIS IS NOT MY VOTE)

++Diamond

Why are you voting for Diamond? Can you have posts thatare more than a sentence? We need reasoned argumentments, not random statements. Try to be useful to the village.

Roa, please edit out your comment to avoid confusion.

Legolas, I apologise. Most of the people here have either played on another Werewolf game or watched another one developing. I, being both busy and lazy, decided not to post the complete set of rules but perhaps I should have. In order to vote, you should do it, as Roa said, in a separate line, bold the name and precede it by two pluses, such as this

++SaucepanMan

Roa, I'm still thinking whether or not letting you use some other player's name is "fairplay" as it might be hinting at something. I'll let it go this time, but PLEASE, EVERYONE..... I APPRECIATE YOUR HELP, BUT LET ME DO THE MODDING.

Any questions or any heads-up can be dealt with via PM, but to ensure a fair and fun game I'll mod and you guys play.

[Roa_Aoife]

Sorry, Farael. The only reason I used Diamond's name is because that's who LiS said she wanted to vote for. I'll stop doing your job now.

[Celuien]

Probable innocent:
Caranlondien
Nogrod
Diamond
Dancing Spawn

I want to include the following as innocents, but don't have have enough to convince me to move them up yet:
Grendelien
JennyHallu
Kitanna


Possibly suspicious, but unsure:
Zali
Roa_Aoife

Really, really don't know:
Naria
Sleepy
Legolas in spandex
Findëasëa

And I know I'm...ordinary.

I'm either going to have to vote in the next 1.5 hours or very close (possibly pushing) the deadline. And ugh, I'm not sure what to do. I'm used to figuring out wolves based on their kill, but the save (as grateful as I am for it since it bought us at least one extra day to debate) has thrown me off.

[Naria]

I think it's perfectly reasonable that she saved the analysis for later

.

Roa, sure it is perfectly reasonable. At the time, however I had no reason to think that she was going to "save" her analyses till later on. There was no mention in her player-by-player post that she had intentions in doing so. Alas, I am not a mind reader and did not know that she had these intentions. However, when Diamond did do her thoughts it became alot more helpful. As I am not an analytical person myself; I do rely on people's thoughts on each matter. That is where I am able to weed out the suspicious from non-suspicious people.


That being said these are the people as of now that I find suspicious.

Caran-I don't really know how to explain it, she seems to be not playing the same way that she normally does(her "weeding" out techniques and fairly knowledgeable) Maybe her brother isn't helping her out as much with this game , but I can't be sure if that is the case or she's an Orc trying to figure things out.

Spawn-Mostly from the analyses done on her and Nogrod's points about her. However, this probably isn't the best thing to do either. But I have to trust someone and it happens to be him(for now).

Sleepy-Yes, he was being goofy the first Day. I just don't like the way that he has chosen to play in this game so far. I know that he can be a better contributor than he has been. It just make me uneasy, knowing that someone can and has played better and he isn't(so far).

So, this is it for toDay. I will have to vote for one of these three and fairly soon(in the next hour or so). I have family that has come in from another province and I will be away from my computer until tomorrow sometime.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Legolas,
Why are you voting for Diamond? Can you have posts thatare more than a sentence? We need reasoned argumentments, not random statements. Try to be useful to the village.

Yes, I agree, and also, Legolas, you posted that your vote was for Diamond, and was located within your last post. Your last post was this:

I guess she is a bit peculiar. I posted. Dunno if I'm too late.

Assuming you didn't delete the post in question, there's something that needs to be explained.

When you're voting, you need to put the person's name behind two plus signs, and leave that in its own line. Like this:

++your vote's name here

Except that you need to put it in bold face, which I didn't do here, in order not to generate confusion about was my vote example actually real.

You also need to give some explanation, preferably with examples or some other kind of evidence in order to back up your vote (otherwise, people just think you're suspicious).

For instance, here's some suspicion for you right now. Your behavior sends up some red flags, Legolas. One-liner posts are not particularly helpful. They don't do much to further the rest of the group's understanding of you. Voting without proof or explanation of any kind is to be suspected, so be careful. So I'm going to help you out here: Why do you suspect Diamond? Can you give us any examples of her behavior that sent up red flags for you?

Please don't take this post as a personal attack. I know you're new at this, and that you were confused yesterDay, so I'm trying to help you out. I'm willing to cut you some slack, depending on how you play for today, but it may not last.

[Nogrod]

Just popping in shortly. Will be back nearer the end of the day: bad day for gaming...

But I'm afraid we are quite in the dark still about any good suspects. The more confusion, the better it is for the orcs.

As I don't see any real "orcish" things around, I will have to look at something different. What came to my mind, was seeing if there was anything that was in some way odd, or ununderstandable. I guess we have at least two such incidents.

Spawn's attack on Roa I have already talked. Maybe I just add the following: the orcs know, who the innocents are. Now a player like Roa would be very good asset to our village, were she innocent. So the orcs might want to get her out of the way by lynching also. But on the other hand, it would be quite daring tactics from the orc to go so bluntly against someone with zero-grounds (well, almost zero), as it will arouse suspicion. Added to this: she went to great lengths suspecting Roa for mildly favouring random voting, but hardly mentioned Sleepy's bold announcement to vote randomly? So: Spawn's posting confuses me.

Another case is Celuien's declaration of my innocence. I myself know, that it is true, but still I wonder why she did it. If I have gathered it right, she seems to be an experienced and thoughtful player, so she surely isn't the shaman announcing her dream of me: she would not have acted so clumsily (the only suspicion on me, ungrounded as one could be, was Jenny's joke - at least I took it as a joke, as we have a history of mutual distrust in games before this one). But could she be a shaman impersonator? What would she gain with that? Or siding with an innocent so as to make that innocent (me) trust her? Or just announcing her trust on my innocence (why?)? Celuien's post confuses me.

I hope there will be more discussion while I'm gone. I'll just throw another idea to be considered. As we are reaching the end of day2 with no good suspicions (those above are not "well grounded suspicions", just something I can't quite make out myself) to vote along with, then we should think about other tactics. Spreading the vote again would be frustrating, but a possible way to go.

But in that case, should we start picking on those, who really post minimally or not at all? I'm afraid of losing useful and well playing villagers in a situation, where we don't really have a good cause over anyone... There would the advantage in this plan, that were there orcs using the "under radar"-tactics, they could be forced out into the open by this kind of a threat?

And anyway: non-posters will be all the more dangerous and annoying, the longer we play...

EDIT: X-posted with a couple of last messages...

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Another case is Celuien's declaration of my innocence. I myself know, that it is true, but still I wonder why she did it. If I have gathered it right, she seems to be an experienced and thoughtful player, so she surely isn't the shaman announcing her dream of me: she would not have acted so clumsily (the only suspicion on me, ungrounded as one could be, was Jenny's joke - at least I took it as a joke, as we have a history of mutual distrust in games before this one). But could she be a shaman impersonator? What would she gain with that? Or siding with an innocent so as to make that innocent (me) trust her? Or just announcing her trust on my innocence (why?)? Celuien's post confuses me.

Well, if you want to know, I said it because I believed it. And actually, I did so against my own better judgment since I almost always get called a werecreature for defending someone. Usually by the person I'm defending.

I didn't read Jenny's accusation as a joke, but I was unaware of the history between you.

You're right, I would have nothing to gain by impersonating the Shaman. I didn't, and I'm not. Read that as you will. But if I'm vaguely Shaman like, better me as a nighttime target than someone else.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But in that case, should we start picking on those, who really post minimally or not at all? I'm afraid of losing useful and well playing villagers in a situation, where we don't really have a good cause over anyone... There would the advantage in this plan, that were there orcs using the "under radar"-tactics, they could be forced out into the open by this kind of a threat?

And anyway: non-posters will be all the more dangerous and annoying, the longer we play...

I agree, and have been known to act on similar plans, although I'm hesitant to do so since summarily lynching under the radar types tends to yield more dead innocents than wolves/orcs in my experience.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I think there are basically two kinds of "random-voting".

Firstly, you may find yourself in a situation, where you have to vote, and you have nothing to go on with: no theories, no arguments, no reasoned suspicions etc. Then you may vote by hunch: just thinking who feels the worst, or whom your intuition tells you gives out the foulest impression. That's something you may be forced to do, and I myself accept it as a last resort.

Ah, but then it's not random anymore. Voting based on a gut feeling isn't random because there is something that made you feel uneasy about someone.

EDIT: PS. My suspicions of Spawn are a prime example of what I meant with this public assessment: as I stated the reasons why I suspected her, she and others could have their say with shared arguments. And because of these comments, I have already declared coming down with part of my suspicions - as we have found a source for that misunderstanding together. This is the way, I think, we should play. Only three orcs around: we others are at the same side!

That's nice, but generally if one is innocent I don't think they should rely too much on other people's opinions because they can't know whether they are orcs or not.


Now, I'll take a moment to say a few words about some of the quieter inhabitants of this village.

- Azaelia. First post: Says that those who get a dream shouldn't leave too obvious clues for other villagers although they should somehow indicate that they had a dream. I would have expected a bit more from her as her first post, but she said that she had to go elsewhere, so I understand that she probably didn't have time to start analysing other villagers then.

Second post: Ah, now she's being herself. Goes through the villagers and states her opinion of them. It's interesting, though, that she chose to pick only me alongside of herself as a probable innocent although there were other people, too, that she didn't seem to find very guilty (like Nogrod).

Third post: Wants to give Diamond the benefit of doubt and says that Glirdan and Sleepy look equally suspicious. Votes for Glirdan because of his random vote. Fourth post: Defends her earlier actions. Says that as an orc she wouldn't have named her fellow orc as a second innocent with herself which means that Spawn isn't an orc (interesting logics there ).

Something in Azaelia doesn't feel quite normal although her posts are generally well reasoned and everything. I'll keep an eye on her.

- Findëasëa. First post: Didn't express her own thoughts at all, and said very little about anything. Second post: Votes for Glirdan because "his posts had very little substance. He was also quick to choose a random vote and explain away his lack of posts". I don't think Findëasëa can afford to vote someone because of insufficiently substantial posts. I need to hear more from her before making any conclusions.

- Grendelien. First post: Didn't say much. She commented the dreaming issue, though, and her conclusion was that "we should act how we see best fit, given the situation". A somewhat typical first post.

Second post: Agrees that Diamond may look bad, but says that those who seem to be helpful might actually be orcs (mentiones Nogrod and Celuien). Votes for Glirdan because she's suspicious of "some of those who voted for Diamond", and it's the only reason she has at that point.

Third post: Regrets her vote and explains her behaviour. Isn't convinced about Diamond's innocence. Says that she was suspicious of Celuien and Caranlondien, but now she can't find things that would incriminate Caran. Says that if Spawn is innocent, Caran might be an orc, though. I'd like to know where she got that idea. Just curious. I can't decide if Grendelien makes more peculiar or good posts. Worth watching, like everyone in this village actually, but maybe even more so.

- Naria. First post: Day 1 chatting, comments on the dream issue and says that those who get a dream should reveal their dream only when they think the time is right. Second post, explains her first post and says that we should drop talking about the dreams and concentrate on catching the orcs.

Third post: Apologises for not voting, says that she hasn't found anyone suspicious yet. Fourth post: Points out that Diamond's words contradict with her actions about analysing the events in the village. Hmm, I've never seen Naria this helpful. Is this a good or bad sign? In any case, keep it up.

- Kitanna. First post: Comments the dreaming issue. Second post: Gives a little summary about the day thus far with her comments in it. Third post: Goes through everyone who has received votes giving her thoughts about them. Votes for Sleepy because "the plea for life (for lack of a better phrase) on Day one, before any suspicions had been cast on him is too much for me. It would appear to be foolish for a wereorc, but nothing ever seems to be too foolish in these games". Kitanna's behaviour is helpful and she seems reasonable to me at this point.

- Legolas. The most confused novice I've seen. It's hard to tell anything about her.


Edit: Cross-posted quite a bit...

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Diamond18

Actually, if I may... what's the matter with being suspicious of other people's voting? Voting more than anything reveals people's true agendas.

Who a player does or does not vote for and their reasons for it can be very telling.

Grend, I apologize, I've just realized that I misunderstood what you were saying. You regretted voting for Glirdan based on being suspicious of other people for their votes against me, rather than regretting that you were suspicious of those voters. Ah. Right. I get it now.

Well, at any rate I appreciate any vote that helps save my life.

[Grendelien]

Originally Posted by Diamond18

Exactly what do you mean by this? I attacked no one at all (seriously) the first day. My vote for Glirdan was purely a defensive act (better he die than me). How was I quick to attack? I've mostly been responding to accusations so far.

By "quick to attack," I meant that you seemed overly offensive (and defensive), as a defensive strategy. However, I can understand your need to protect yourself, as no villager or orc wants to be lynched. Orcs generally have a greater reason to be defensive, since they are smaller in number, but it would probably be unwise for an orc to be openly defensive so often. I do have a tendency to second-guess myself, which means that I think frequent defensive posting could be a diversion (gah, back to that again)...but since I cannot come to any conclusion about this yet, I won't use Diamond's self-protective posts as a reason to find her guilty thus far.

[Grendelien]

Oh my, I was originally considering voting for Spawn or Nogrod, based on the various posts I have read, but Zali's newest post about JennyHallu is very telling. I will go back and reread Jenny's posts, along with others' anayses of her.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Grendelien

but Zali's newest post about JennyHallu is very telling. I will go back and reread Jenny's posts, along with others' anayses of her.

I don't think you need to. Jenny has been dreamed of, and I trust it, because it would be fool's work to be an orc-Zali and to lie about the one dreamt of. We should find the lie out immediately after Jenny's death, and would kill Zali the next day...

++ Jenny Hallu

[Sleepy Ranger]

If Grendelien and Nogrod vote for JennyHallu she can still be taken out and if she does turn out to be innocent then we'd know who we have to lynch the next Day. I've seen JennyHallu play before and as I said, "If shes an orc we're screwed." Its best not to take any chances, I don't mean to sound to forward but I am sort of panicing over the whole thing for some reason. My suggestions, go for JennyHallu. I doubt her posts will give any clues at all.

EDIT: Seems my post wasn't needed >_>