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Old 03-30-2006, 11:34 AM   #1
Thinlómien
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Kath analysis

Yesterday - 2 posts

#4 - Wonders the starting time. Says she will back.

#101 - Suspects morm (pointing out Diamond's and Farael's "fighting", which she doesn't take seriously), Garin (for his cat-ownership), Farael (tried to get people pick up his random accusations, eager double-lyncher, changes suspects often) and Telperaca (vague reasoning). She says something that makes me uneasy:
Quote:
I'm also suspicious of Sleepy, but I have no reasoning behind that. He just makes me feel very uncomfortable. I would rather vote for someone I had real and even vaguely supported suspicions of, but at the moment my vote is likely to go to and stay with:
and then she votes him. Just above, she voiced somehow-grounded suspicions of three different people, so why on earth does she then vote Sleepy who she has no idea of? Kath, my friend, would you care to explain?

Today - nothing this far to analyse

Conclusion:
She has made only two posts this far and the one of them she is substantial in,she manages to be flip-floppy. Doesn't look good for her. Anyway, I would like to hear her explanations before drawing any further sinister conclusions.
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Old 03-30-2006, 11:44 AM   #2
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(I'm sorry for triple-posting... The flood is coming again... )

There are many people who haven't popped up by now. I know they still have plenty of time and they are in strange timezones , but nevertheless, it worries me.

When I read through the thread, two persons caught my attention. Alcarillo and Glirdan.

Alca just popped in and voted rather randomly (he gave no reasons except "suspiciousness"), then apologised and left. And he didn't even say he was in a hurry. I'd appreciate to hear about him more. He worries me a lot.

Glirdan doesn't post much substance. What really worries me about him is his analysises. Always an analysis. He might be trying to make us see through feline lenses or convince that he is helpful or convince he posts substance. he's hiding behind his analyses and I don't like it.
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Old 03-30-2006, 11:58 AM   #3
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Oh, it seems it might be the time for me to leave. I vote

++Glirdan

He has had a word today. There's too few on Alca and Kath to go on. A few posts. And I don't like voting people who can't defend themselves. (I know I'll probably have to leave my noble policy some day...)

Anyway, I voted now because I might have to go anytime between now and less than half an hour. I might comment more before I leave (depending on when I leave), but in case I won't may we lynch a wolf and good night (or day, depending on your locations) to all!
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Old 03-30-2006, 11:58 AM   #4
Roa_Aoife
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Garin
Day 1
1st post - Character stuff. Mentions two cats? Thinks one wolf is in the early visitors, says he will vote for one of the first three visitors.
2nd post - definition of specious
3rd - definition of fallacious
4th - “Thanks for that, Roa…” (What’d I do?)
5th - Finds Alca’s vote and apology suspicious, not convinced about mod hints, is unsettled by sleepy trying to discern the gifteds, doesn’t like Diamond calling him a cat.
6th - character post (more mentions of pet cats) and distrust Eonwe for random vote theory
7th - Lists suspects: Eonwe, Alcarillo, Sleepy Ranger, Mormegil (Why not?) Votes Sleepy, doesn’t want to make him an enemy, Asks for deadline.
8th - responds to Diamond’s pic
9th - worries about Form, says, “A feline can throw in a couple votes against fellow werecats and then go after an innocent in the end.” decides to stick with Sleepy vote despite being unsure.
10th - regrets remark about being unsure with Sleepy vote, says it is a feline play, not sure about anyone

Day 2
1st post - describes his vote for Sleepy, is suspicious of Wilwarin, suggests looking at Nogrod’s list to “see what happens”
2nd - Agrees with Mormegil that Wilwa’s language seems contrived, suggests that the hints from the narrative may actually be useful
3rd - Points out that Nogrod trusted him, Mormegil, and Diamond. Still suspects the other two, list assumed behavior if Wilwa is a werecat, sates that the vote is retractable, votes Wilwa.
4th - apologizes to moderator for assuming validity of the “hints”, says he didn’t actually believe in that theory, explains that he suspects Wilwa because of the end of the day and the list, doesn’t think we should ignore the list
5th - Agrees with Glirdan that the dialog about past villages is inappropriate, wonders about the quietness of the village
6th - Suspicious of Diamond, Wilwa, Glirdan, says Morm and Thin haven’t left his sights
7th - Complains about being suspected despite voting for Sleepy, thinks the only reason he’s alive and Nogrod isn’t is because he’s easy to lynch, asks Thin to keep talking, finds Diamond suspicious because of instinct alone, says he likes to flush out comments
8th - agrees to analyze Kitanna, doesn't understand looking at the Sleepy Bandwagon, still suspects Wilwarin
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Old 03-30-2006, 12:02 PM   #5
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And what are your own thoughts on that, Roa?
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Old 03-30-2006, 12:10 PM   #6
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Analysis of Garin

What interests me is that you admit that Feline's may vote for each other to throw off suspicion, but then don't understand the reasoning for analyzing the Sleepy Bandwagon (oh, his name is too much fun). Your distrust of Eonwe came late in the game, as many others had been knocking this around before hand. While I know why I'm suspicious of Morm, I've yet to hear why you mention him so specifically. Also, when you say you're still suspicious of Thin- I didn't see you previously mention being suspicious of her. Did I miss something? You also stay on your suspicion of Wilwa without giving a good reason for it. You admit that alot of your suspicion came from the list theory, which has now been tossed aside, but you hold onto it anyways. If you're talking about reactions to it, she didn't really react.

Also, you're vote for Sleepy came after a lot of suspicion had been thrown on him. Maybe you sacrificed your fellow cat to make yourself look innocent. Certainly, being the first voter would seem to clear you. However, if it looked like a bandwagon was about to start anyways, you may just have been using it to cover your tracks.

Edit: Cross posted with Thin. I like to keep my analysis and my summary seperate, so as not to sway people trying to analyze on their own.
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Old 03-30-2006, 12:13 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinlómien
There are many people who haven't popped up by now. I know they still have plenty of time and they are in strange timezones , but nevertheless, it worries me.

When I read through the thread, two persons caught my attention. Alcarillo and Glirdan.
I am actually in agreement with you here. Glirdan doesn't concern me as much as Alcarillo and Eonwe. However, I don't buy Wilwa's defense and I will vote for her. Tomorrow I will look closer at them and others who haven't said much. I think your willingness to look at many sources speaks in your favor Thinlomien, to your innocence however I am not fully convinced but I am leaning that way now.

With that said I still am uncertain as to a lot of things but I feel fairly strongly that Wilwa's vote yesterday was simply an attempt to dupe the rest of us by showing that she voted for a wolf. But really it was more like her screaming that she thinks we should kill him when he's already on the chopping block and transformed so it really doesn't show anything of her supposed innocence. Then we get to her explination and everything she says seems very contrived (to borrow from Garin...I was looking for that word). She's too suspcious for me.

++Wilwarin of the numbers
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Old 03-30-2006, 12:27 PM   #8
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Following my analysis, it also occurs to me that your other main reason for suspecting Wilwa is her vote for Sleepy. Why then would you ask for the reason of analyzing Sleepy's voters?

Also, your first post today, drawing attention to your sleepy vote makes you very suspicious in my mind. It seems like your saying, "See? I voted for a cat! I must be innocent," which is exactly what I would expect a cat to say.
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Old 03-30-2006, 12:33 PM   #9
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No, you all!! VOTE FOR EONWE!!! HE'S SLIPPING THROUGH THE CRACKS!!!

Ok, back to my bacteria... erm I mean foolish behaviour
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Old 03-30-2006, 12:36 PM   #10
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You could do an analysis of Eonwe if it bothers you that much Farael.
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Old 03-30-2006, 12:37 PM   #11
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Wilwa
Day 1
1st post - Rushed, requests people to be logical in voting, wants to keep gifteds alive
2nd - has a weird feeling about Garin, uneasy about Farael, wants to reread everything, says she might vote for Sleepy, but wants to wait a bit, comments on Oddness in Glirdan’s post
3rd - requests time limit
4th - Gives reasoning for Sleepy vote, says he has the most reasons to be suspected, votes Sleepy.

Day 2
1st post - answers suspicions, says she was stressed because of the situation her lateness put her in, says she made the best decision she could, thinks it would have been better not to vote like Glirdan
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Old 03-30-2006, 12:49 PM   #12
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Quote:
Roa: Also, your first post today, drawing attention to your sleepy vote makes you very suspicious in my mind. It seems like your saying, "See? I voted for a cat! I must be innocent," which is exactly what I would expect a cat to say.
I'm sorry I seem upset but there happens to be a matter of where the vote appears. Wilwarin's last minute vote and dialogue is suspicious and is completely different from my vote for Sleepy.
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Old 03-30-2006, 12:48 PM   #13
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Lommy your suspicions of me are well-founded, but false. I know my reasoning was bad yesterDay but while I analyse and try to find reasons for those I suspect, sometimes you have to go with gut instinct. It is often the case that those you can't find proof of guilt for are the ones that are guilty, as they are trying harder to appear inconspicuous, to cover their tracks. But then you can get a 'feeling' that something is wrong, that they are too inconspicious and innocent-looking. Yeah that was a rubbish defence

To other people! Now, while I don't wish to bring up gripes about Nogrod's list again, I feel that Kitanna had a good point about looking at the way people reacted to it. Sleepy's reaction was indeed over the top, but that may have been more due to his noting that his own name was in the list rather than seeing those of his fellow wolves, though of course it is possible. So, due to the possible reasoning behind Sleepy's overreaction (I said possible morm, don't fire up) an eye should be kept on Telp, Lommy and wilwa.

Telp we haven't seen toDay and saw very little of yesterDay. There may be reasons for this and it could be timezones so I will leave her be for now, though I would like to hear more from her.

Lommy I think innocent. She's being a loudmouth and changing her opinion every few posts and so playing as normal

That brings me to wilwa. Many people have mentioned her last post yesterDay and I think with good reason. She was in no way sealing Sleepy's death as she was the last to vote and there was only one person left (I think). Her defence of herself toDay also left much to be desired. Her reasoning for her vote wasn't that she was simply voting for the one who she felt was most guilty out of the two, but the one that would put the least suspicion on her! Now while this is a valid concern the most pressing reason behind a vote whether it be Day 1 or Day 6 should be suspicion.

Oh and as for Nogrod's death, what if the Cats simply thought he was the Seeker? It would be a bold move indeed for the Seeker to expose themselves so early on, but it might have concerned the Cats that someone so quickly caught one of their number out and thought him to be this bold.

I will be around for a while yet this evening, up to quite close to the deadline so I won't vote yet. I know we have retractable votes, but it just makes things so confusing!
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