Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow. - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Gurthang · 03-23-2006, 10:30 PM

Very well, Valier and Naria have voiced their opposition to following the plan I suggested.

Here's how I would break it down. If we start doing double lynches, the Days would go as follows.

ToDay: 4 knowns to 7 unknowns ; we lynch 2 unknowns.
ToNight: 4 knowns to 5 unknowns ; one known (likely LMP) dies.
Tomorrow: 3 knowns to 5 unknowns; we do a double lynch of two unknowns.
Tomorrow Night: 3 knowns to 3 unknowns; one known dies.
Next Day: 2 knowns to 3 unknowns; another double lynch.

At this point there are 2 knowns left and 1 unknown. If the one unknown happens to be a wolf, then the game is over in the wolves favor. If that one unknown is not a wolf, then the village has won. Doing it this way gives us, as a village, a 5/7 chance of winning. That's 71%. Meaning if we just drew names from a hat, we would have that good of a chance of winning.

If we do single lynchings from here on out, it would go more like this:

Today: 4 to 7 (knowns to unknowns)
ToNight: 4 to 6
Tomorrow: 3 to 6
Tomorrow Night: 3 to 5
Next Day: 2 to 5
Next Night: 2 to 4
Next Day: 1 to 4
Next Night: 1 to 3
Next Day: 0 to 3

The wolves would only need to survive that last day. That means that of the two people who would be left, only 1 needs to be a wolf. In my mind, this effectively doubles the wolves chances of winning, because they don't have to be the last unknown, they just have to be one of the last two unknowns.

Anyone still in doubt of the merit of doing double lynchings from here on out? And regardless of if you do, I think that we should at least do one toDay while we have the advantage of knowing four peoples innocence.

03-23-2006, 10:30 PM	#11
Gurthang Sword of Spirit Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Oh, I'm around. Posts: 1,401	Very well, Valier and Naria have voiced their opposition to following the plan I suggested. Here's how I would break it down. If we start doing double lynches, the Days would go as follows. ToDay: 4 knowns to 7 unknowns ; we lynch 2 unknowns. ToNight: 4 knowns to 5 unknowns ; one known (likely LMP) dies. Tomorrow: 3 knowns to 5 unknowns; we do a double lynch of two unknowns. Tomorrow Night: 3 knowns to 3 unknowns; one known dies. Next Day: 2 knowns to 3 unknowns; another double lynch. At this point there are 2 knowns left and 1 unknown. If the one unknown happens to be a wolf, then the game is over in the wolves favor. If that one unknown is not a wolf, then the village has won. Doing it this way gives us, as a village, a 5/7 chance of winning. That's 71%. Meaning if we just drew names from a hat, we would have that good of a chance of winning. If we do single lynchings from here on out, it would go more like this: Today: 4 to 7 (knowns to unknowns) ToNight: 4 to 6 Tomorrow: 3 to 6 Tomorrow Night: 3 to 5 Next Day: 2 to 5 Next Night: 2 to 4 Next Day: 1 to 4 Next Night: 1 to 3 Next Day: 0 to 3 The wolves would only need to survive that last day. That means that of the two people who would be left, only 1 needs to be a wolf. In my mind, this effectively doubles the wolves chances of winning, because they don't have to be the last unknown, they just have to be one of the last two unknowns. Anyone still in doubt of the merit of doing double lynchings from here on out? And regardless of if you do, I think that we should at least do one toDay while we have the advantage of knowing four peoples innocence. __________________ I'm on a Mission from God.