Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

I maintain that the wolves likely knew very early that Lhuna was the Beloved Wolf. If she couldn't hide in a village of 18, do you really think she could hide in a cohort of 4 schemers? So, like Lalaith said, I think we need to look very carefully at all of the Lhuna voters, who may have opportunistically taken the chance to rid themselves of this nuisance.

I also maintain, despite what seems like everyone else's opinions to the contrary, that at yesterday's stage of the game, the wolves would have preferred to keep the Lovers alive. Why? The Lovers were no danger to the wolves as yet. They would lose the game by killing off the wolves too early; they, like the wolves, would have had to concentrate on lowering the number of innocents in the village before slaughtering the wolves.

Is it just me or is that contradictory? But I do agree: just because you voted for Lhuna, and I'm in that category too, doesn't mean you should escape a close examination.

Anyway, sorry to come so late in the day. You know, though, how busy we bankers get: money to store, interest to collect and accounts to wind up. And alas it was with sadness that I wound up my good friend Eomer's account today. He was a great customer- very wealthy! As I look back over his superb voting and accusation record I find myself firmly suspecting one man: Glirdan. In a list of four which included two wolves and an ordo lover Eomer mentioned the above as a double-lynch candidate for today. I would, on the transpiring of evidence, agree with Eomer that (a) we should double lynch today and (b) that Glirdan should be one of those double-lynchees. But who should accompany him? Well, the obvious answer is TGWBS, but alas, I think not. Ok, so he's quite confusing and a bit 'out there', but I just don't think he's a wolf. So, it's a support of a double lynch, because I agree that whatever way you do the maths it helps us innocents, with Glirdan as one of those, but not TGWBS accompanying him.

But who, then? Well, without meaning to sound like a convert to the Church of The Guy Who Be Short, I think Naria. She's been quiet, too quiet, and we must be very careful of those wolves who would wish to lurk in the shadows (I think Farael actually said that). Kath was one of those, and I am inclined to think our dear Naria may be too.

Anyway, that's just a quick post. I hope to do more analysis before I vote, but I'd have to admit my mind is almost made up.

[Caranlondien]

Am I right that we have three votes so far - one for TGWBS, one for Naria, and one for Glirdan?

I'm leaning away from lynching TGWBS toDay. As has been mentioned, he's been helpful lately, and he's looking more innocent than he once did. The only reason I've mentioned him so much toDay is because I did the analysis of Farael, and that's all he talked about apart from Lhuna and Kath. But actually, Farael's focusing on him so much really does make him seem more innocent, the more I think about it, because it would be very risky to run around naming 3/4 of the werewolves.

The person I'm leaning toward lynching is Glirdan. I guess if are going to do a double-lynch, Naria is another good suspect.

The thing about double-lynchings is that yes, it increases a wolf's chances of being lynched, but that's because it increases everyone's chances - Ordos and Gifteds, too. As far as the numbers go, we can afford to lose an Ordo... but, still, I think caution is called for. I just couldn't keep myself from saying something more about it; I'm stubborn...

[Caranlondien]

I've been re-reading the posts. I'm going back and forth in my opinion on TGWBS. I sympathize with Cailín:

Originally Posted by Cailín

His posts toDay appear to scream misguided innocent. But having him around seems bad for my already befuddled brain.

She goes on to say that for the moment she's in favor of lynching Glirdan and TGWBS.

If we're going to do a double-lynch, it's pretty much accepting that we can afford to lose innocents. Maybe it would be better to lynch TGWBS along with someone else, just so that we could move on and discuss something else. Not that I think the discussion today has been a waste, because, well, he is suspicious-looking, gosh darn it!

[Celuien]

TGWBS:

Day 1:

#32: Immediately starts with the “I’m a wolf. Lynch me!” campaign made (in)famous by the dearly departed Nilp. Appears to just be in character at this point.

#36: Continues to insist he’s a wolf and campaign for votes. Says he isn’t a Lover. At least that much was true. Still looks in character at this point.

#40: Tells us Garin does not want to die. Suggests that we know where to cast our votes. Presumably for him. Again, still looks in character.

Day 2:

#150: Says he’s still a wolf. Says we shouldn’t focus too much on day 1 votes, then proceeds to say he will consider them because they aren’t entirely useless. Huh? Confusing.

#152: Day 1 voting record.

#153: Says we focus too much on Ang and he will be back to consider the voting record. Personally, I think Ang turns out to have been key to finding Kath and Lhuna, regardless of whether or not that’s really why they chose to kill him. Says that there’s a wolf in the voting somewhere since 9/22 received a vote.

Defended by Lhuna in 154.

#161: Suspects spawn and Gurthang for ‘late apathetic votes,” with Gurthang more suspicious than spawn. Says he’s still a wolf (okay, we get it), that Formendacil and Farael look iffy and that lmp looks innocent.

Given that spawn turned out to be the Seer, I wonder if this means anything. Must think it over…

#223: Suspects Eomer for not doing his research and being random with his vote for lmp. Says Eomer causes confusion and chaos. Given that Eomer was right as often as he was, I wonder. Maybe TGWBS really was trying to get rid of a dangerous opponent. Suspects Gurthang and Farael.

#229: Says he’s a wolf. Again. Says lmp can’t be blamed for pointing out the Lovers might share information. Votes for Eomer.

Day 3:

#292: Another werewolf anagram. Promises analysis of spawn, asks for 6 analyses of possible to guarantee at least one innocent in the analyzers.

#307: Spawn analysis. Concludes that an Eonwe dream was more probable than a Lhuna dream. Says spawn could have been killed to protect a wolf-Lhuna but that the wolves might also have been trying to even the gender imbalance. Ultimate conclusion is that spawn’s dream was ambiguous. This is possibly true, but given that we now know Lhuna was a wolf, it look suspicious.

#308: Says Farael does and does not make sense. Sense being that Lhuna was not dreamt of and not-sense being that Kath was. Concludes that Kath is ambiguous as well and that no wolves were dreamt of.

Hmm. Granted, there’s not way for us to know right now what spawn’s dreams were. But we know that Kath and Lhuna were wolves. TGWBS defends both mildly and, well, ambiguously. Looks very, very suspicious.

#311: Spawn quotes. Says they don’t really condemn Kath and that Farael’s and Eomer’s accusations of Kath are making him suspect them.

Worse and worse…

#315: The double lynch all men plan. I don’t think there’s any need to rehash it.

#335: Says Farael is illogical in defending Lhuna over Kath. Yep. And we know why now. Can’t argue here. But then goes on to say those pushing for a Kath lynching look bad. Again, makes him look suspicious in light of what we now know.

#342: Promotes double lynching of the male gender again.

#345: Replies somewhat cryptically to Caralondien’s criticism of his lynching plan. (Originally Posted by Caralondien
In fact, TGWBS's plan seems like one the wolves might come up with...

Wonderful percentages those...)

Eomer says that something has changed and that he has faith in TGWBS in 348. The one thing that always drove me batty about Eomer was his cryptic comments, even though I did figure out the lmp vote business. But I can’t figure this one out based on what TGWBS said to this point. We know that Eomer wasn’t a Seer. Maybe this was part of a plan to hide the real Seer from the wolves. I don’t know.

#350: Analysis of Formendacil. Conclusion: suspects him.

#354: Defends his plan. Now says that there might be a case against Lhuna. After Farael has been defending her. Makes sense if he is a wolf and now wants to get rid of the traitor. Says he’d rather get the Lovers, in fact, and would prefer sticking to lynching men.

#356/359/363/377: More about the plan. 363 admits flaws, still thinks Lovers are a big threat, wants everyone to accept double lynching and says that Farael’s evidence against Kath is less than the evidence for the plan.

#374: Continues to defend Kath, says evidence against her is soggy. Possibly true, but again, I’m finding it suspicious.

#380: Finds Gurthang innocent.

#383: Says Seer discussion is dangerous. True.

#385: Points out Naria and Kath’s silence, votes for Farael. Says to double lynch him with Lhuna if possible. Actually, this is brilliant if TGWBS is a wolf. That would have saved wolf-Kath and wasted the double on a Lover who would have died anyway. And Farael’s identity would have been obvious to a wolf at this point.

Then there’s this from Farael in 386:

TGWBS, I know you are not the seer because you are accusing me.... and I find it very unsettling how you try to manipulate the village. Of course, others may think that you are a seer who has found something, but I know you are not as I know I'm not a wolf. Thus the question remains, why are you being so manipulative? do you have other interests? all those statistics and the detraction from proper analysis.... quite odd, isn't it?

I wonder if Farael knew something.

Day 4:

Just a general summary instead of post by post. Says we can see Farael’s motives now and that it’s better to look at earlier posts by Lhuna, Kath and Farael than later ones since the later are most likely to be meant for confusion. True statements. Wonders why lmp is against him so much (I think that’s pretty obvious), defends himself about the Kath and Lhuna no-dream theory. Says he doesn’t mind being lynched as long as it’s a double so that he can take a wolf with him since he’s innocent. Analyses Kath. Wonders if he’s being set up. Posts voting list from yesterday and several lists of probable innocents, no idea, and suspicious villagers. Says that Naria hasn’t said much. (Agreed. See below.) Votes for Naria. (Disagree. Despite silence, what she has said doesn’t seem suspicious to me.) At any rate, this makes him look less suspicious if today is taken as an isolated point. But it isn’t isolated, and I can’t get past what he said over the past few days now that I’ve taken a harder look at it. So right now, I’m puzzled over what to do. One the one hand, TGWBS does look very, very fishy…erm…furry. But on the other, today’s posts do seem more like a monumentally wrong innocent than a cornered wolf.
At any rate, I’ll vote for either TGWBS or Glirdan today. I just don’t know which. Actually, TGWBS looks more suspicious overall. It’s just that I feel a little swayed by his posts today.

Since I mentioned her, on to Naria:

Day 1:

#29: In character day 1 chattiness. Comments on Gurthang’s list in post 20. Promises to return before vote time.

#103: Says she is tempted to vote for Garin, but won’t because she thinks he’s just being himself (turns out to have been correct). Says TGWBS’s suicidal vote was stupid and that if he were Nilp, she’d vote for him. So she does.

One of the three (Lalaith, Naria, and Eonwe) suspected by wolf-Lhuna in post 120 on the basis of her TGWBS vote.

Day 2:

#220: Nothing much. A busy day in the village. She’ll be back.

#225: Never thought that the Lovers would share information.

#280: Asks Thinlo why she’s so scary for being quiet. Says she’d prefer to be quiet than confusing and gives a RL reason for absence. Votes Eonwe.

Day 3:

#420: Torn between voting for Kath (just started to suspect) and Lhuna.

#429: Stand off with Gurthang. Doesn’t mean much. Explained in 443 as a ‘funny,’ where she also votes for Kath, apparently thinking he’s the remaining Seer.

#442: Says she’ll look suspicious if the last to vote.

#449: Wonders aloud if Gurthang is a wolf on the basis of pronouns (your instead of our seer).

Overall, doesn’t look suspicious from what she has said, however little. And so I’m not inclined to vote for her, especially when we have characters like Glirdan and TGWBS around.

[SamwiseGamgee]

I now know why I seem to be trusting TGWBS: Eomer, he of provenly good record, seemed to trust him. My reason for trust was was all but subconcious until I reread the posts of our departed tunemeister.

Anyway, I'm about to vote for the obvious choice, but before I do let me make an empassioned plea: double lynch today. It is a gift. We should lynch Glirdan, that I do not argue: his behaviour has been positively wolfish. But who with him? I say Naria. Now I know TGWBS has been acting somewhat suspiciously, but he has made sense. His 'cull the males' was logical, even if I didn't support it, and his analysis over today has been very helpful. I just don't think he's a wolf. They lost half their team yesterday, it wouldn't be a calculated risk for him to suggest lynching him; it'd be suicide.

Anywho, I just think Naria's the kind of player who could go very deep into the game unnoticed, and if the wolves win and she's one and we overlooked her we'll be kicking ourselves. If the second lynch is going to be a 'removal of doubt' lynch- as a few of you seem to be arguing it may well be- then let's get rid of Naria.

Edit: sorry, forgot to add my actual vote!

++ Glirdan

[SamwiseGamgee]

Last post was a cross-post with Celuien. I admit my support of TGWBS isn't reasoned analysis, it's just gut feeling against my better judgement.

Choose who you will, but choose wisely, friends.

Edit: Another x-post. Celuien's last post should read Glirdan: 2; TGWBS: 2; Naria: 1

[SamwiseGamgee]

One day, Celuien, we'll time it right!

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by SamwiseGamgee

One day, Celuien, we'll time it right!

So we will!