The Tol-in-Gaurhoth Grimoire

[The Saucepan Man]

Er - most of the information that you need to work this question out is here on this thread. That's kind of the point of it ...

One of the more memorable Hunter incidents was in WW11, when AbercrombieOfRohan declared herself as the Hunter, followed swiftly by a Hunter declaration from mormegil. Morm, the true Hunter, was lynched for his trouble and took AoR down with him.

As a Hunter myself, in WW8, I lived a rather charmed life (having made my role fairly obvious) and, having orchestrated a mass lynching on the final Day, realised that it could spell doom for the village. Happily, that last minute realisation enabled me to strike down Gurthang the Black Beorning before he took the whole village with him.

[Garin]

Correction, Sauce...

I'm pretty sure Mormegil declared himself the hunter first and then a suicidal Abercrombie countered with her own claim to hunterdom.

Of course the village believed Aber over grumpy ol' Morm and lynched him and he promptly took down Aber-wolf with him.

She explained post-game that she had a big work-load and needed out of the game. Seemed, fairly reasonable... at least she got the darn village to kill their hunter.

I don't mean to be a smarty pants Master Sauce. The game just sticks in my mind because it is when I first started getting interested in WW.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I have fond memories of the original heroic hunter, Azaelia. I was very proud of her, despite her death being in vain. And yes, it was Holbytlass who felt her wrath.

Let's be honest, though. It was easier for her considering the village was so small. Not like that certain brave hunter (who was not at all evil, Cailín) who picked a wolf out of the entire village.

And Abercrombie's suicide hunter mission had me wondering if she'd lost her mind. Thankfully, at least to this disembodied wolf, it worked out well in the end.

Praise be to the role of Hunter! Serving up drama here, there and everywhere! Why was it ever Assigned to Mordor?

[Lalaith]

Oh yes, I remember phantom's game now, didn't Eomer actually get lynched by the villagers and take Cailin down with him? (Sorry Sauce, I should be looking back through the pages of the Grimoire, I know)

I assign myself as Hunter to Mordor. Probably the worst performance in the history of WW (Feanor's killing of the Seer in a WWJ wasn't great, I admit, but at least she had the kudos of WWIV to fall back on.)

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

No, Lal, the wolves dared to take me on.

[Kuruharan]

Sure.

Champagne, caviar, rock-and-roll, and strobe lights!!

It'll be the best!

[Lalaith]

*dons false eyelashes and feather boa*
I'm there!

[Lhunardawen]

"I don't ever want to be an ordo again, because whenever I'm an ordo I feel so unhelpful that I unconsciously try to come up with the craziest ways to commit suicide...and I usually end up successful."

[Macalaure]

Folwren said the following in the Battle of the Bands Game:

An innocent is more likely to be killed this first day than any of the following!

Well, I'm too much of a geek to let this great opportunity to gather some statistics pass.

I have looked at 31 Werewolf Games (the summaries in the Grimoire or the summaries at the end of the newer games, if there are faults in them, they're in here as well - and probably some new ones..)


Here we go!


Day 1:

# of Ordos lynched: 20
# of Gifteds lynched: 4
# of Baddies lynched: 10

This makes 71% innocents, 29% baddies.


Day 2:

O: 21
G: 4
B: 11

69% innocents, 31% baddies


Day 3:

O: 23
G: 0 (!)
B: 17

58% innocents, 43% baddies


Day 4:

O: 19
G: 3
B: 12

65% innocents, 35% baddies


Day 5:

O: 18
G: 1
B: 10

66% innocents, 34% baddies


Day 6:

O: 11
G: 1
B: 5

71% innocents, 29% baddies


Day 7:

O: 5
G: 0
B: 6

45% innocents, 55% baddies


Day 8:

O: 3
G: 0
B: 0

100% innocents



Over to the conclusions.

- The average is 65% innocents and 35% baddies, so roundabout two thirds of all lynchees were innocent.

- Day 3 and 7 are the lucky days of the village.

- Day 6 is as bad as Day 1.

- If you weren't able to get the last wolf on Day 7, you're screwed.

- Folwren's claim does hold, but not very much. The chance to kill an innocent on Day 1 is just 6% worse than the average, and it's even tied with Day 6.

The chances don't seem rise or fall in a way that would suggest there's some nice function behind it (I was hoping to see something like that, but the identity is nice too). The results go over and under the average as they will.

Does this now mean that intelligence is over-rated and randomness would work just as well? I'm puzzled.