Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[Lalaith]

I'd like to see more analysis of a wider range of people. I've got a feeling there's a wolf slipping under the radar.
Valier, Caranlondien, Celuien, Naria, Lommy, for example.....

[Lalaith]

Oh and Guy, I don't think any of us who voted for Lhuna are exonerated. As I said in my first post, the wolves would probably have realised, by Farael's febrility, that Lhuna was the traitor. They would have been as glad to see the back of her as the rest of us.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Oh and Guy, I don't think any of us who voted for Lhuna are exonerated. As I said in my first post, the wolves would probably have realised, by Farael's febrility, that Lhuna was the traitor. They would have been as glad to see the back of her as the rest of us.

Or they could have guessed that
Lhuna was probably going to die and wanted to seem innocent by voting her. Also, they might have voted her in order to save Kath. But we shouldn't forget the possibility of a clever wolf voting Kath. Those who didn't vote either (didn't take sides) should also be suspected.

Conclusion: Whatever you voted, I find you suspicious based on it. Argh. My flip-floppiness and undecisiveness irritate even myself. I'll do some analysis and clear my head a bit about this whole issue.

[Caranlondien]

Okay, I've done an analysis of Farael, post-by-post, but it's long... and by long, I mean, really, really long. The things that struck me are:

(A) That on the second day he had already begun to attack Kath, and then mentions tar-a, less strongly. I think this clears her of guilt, as I doubt he would attack two wolves so early on, as the wolves would catch on that he was either a Lover or a Seer.

(B) The person he mentions the most on Day Three, aside from Kath, whom he's trying to get lynched, and Lhuna, his Lover, is TGWBS. I'm not sure if the same reasoning I used about tar-a applies here, as Farael was quite desperate at this point.

As for my post-by-post analysis, would you guys like me to post it, despite its length? I suppose those who have time could read it, I just don't want to clutter up the Village Square with long, possibly distracting posts that few will read.

Although I'm almost tempted to post it just to prove I've been working on something, since TGWBS has managed to get me back under suspicion (though I can't blame him, since I've been accusing him for days)

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

As for my post-by-post analysis, would you guys like me to post it, despite its length? I suppose those who have time could read it, I just don't want to clutter up the Village Square with long, possibly distracting posts that few will read.

Yes, please. It'd be a pleasure.

[Caranlondien]

As per request... Note: I'm new at this, so, like I said, it's long...

Farael

DAY ONE
On the first day, he talks mostly about his suspicions of Anguirel, and I can't find anything else useful, so I shan't do a break-down analysis by post.

DAY TWO
Post #191:
The second day, he comes in defending himself against (A) TGWBS, who was wondering why he hadn't made a suicidal vote, and (B) Eomer, who wondered why Farael had jumped to Kath's defense. His defense doesn't seem to tell us anything important.

He then moves on to accusations. He says that by killing Anguirel, the werewolves implicated him and made Kath seem innocent, because we would think it was obviously a set-up. Later in the day, several people raised concerns about Farael's statement here: Anguirel hadn't really attacked Kath that strongly, so why was it obviously a set-up? Obviously, we now know that Farael thought this because, well, Kath was a werewolf. He makes a strong attack on Kath, probably hoping that once we'd lynched her, we would trust him. His last sentence is:

Originally Posted by Farael

Anyway, I want to hear some more from Kath… and tar-a, not for her vote last night but because she often makes well argued points yet last night she didn’t.

He mentions tar-a there, and I think this probably clears her of guilt. I doubt very much that Farael would have accused two werewolves so early on; The werewolves would have immediately caught on that he was either the lover or a seer, and killed him.

DAY THREE

Post #288:
Says "I was fearing that" (I think referring to dancing spawn's death, and her turning out to be a Seer). Apologizes for not voting, says he didn't know voting would end so early.

Post #297:
This post analyzes dancing spawn. It seems like he did this mostly to try to point away from Lhuna. Tries to shift suspicion to Kath by arguing that he doesn't understand why dancing spawn would have dreamt of Lhuna in the first place.

Posts #301 & 302:
Tries to defend his attack on Kath. Also says to tar-a that he doesn't think we should make a list of known innocents yet. I can't figure out why he says this (I can't even find tar-a's post that he's responding to.

Post #304:
Responds to Cailin's correction of his facts. Proposes a plan of lynching Kath and saving Lhuna for later.

Post #306:
Cryptic response to Lalaith's claim that if she were a Seer in Nilp's game, she'd dream of Lhuna immediately. Later edits when he realizes why she said this.

Post #310:
Responds to TGWBS, who said he didn't think it likely that any wolves had been dreamt of. Says that "Wolves usually hide in the shadows... or at least, most wolves in the pack do". Continues to argue that we should lynch Kath.

Post #312:
Responds to TGWBS.

Originally Posted by Farael

And why so shrill? have we stepped on a nerve? we accuse Kath and you accuse us.... why TGWBS?

He's probably just trying to imply that TGWBS and Kath are lovers, but one could also interpret it as him saying that they're both wolves. I'm suspicious of TGWBS to begin with, so I'd like to hear others' opinions on the issue. It should be noted that by this point Farael seemed pretty careless (I mean, his attack on Kath was suspiciously strong).

Post #314:

Originally Posted by Farael

Cross posted with Cailin.... might be the lack of sleep that I'm not expressing myself properly. I'm just annoyed that I bothered to add a lovely "Post X" before each comment and he went back and must have missed some as I recall to have found more than 3 quotes from Spawn with regards to Kath.

Pretty much just getting defensive.

Post #319:
Defends himself against LMP's suggestion that he could be a desperate lover. Suggests that if we think he is the lover, we should lynch him and Kath or Lhuna and Kath. Probably hoping we won't take him seriously.

Cross-posts with tar-a, who points out some flaws in TGWBS's plan.

Originally Posted by Farael

Edit: Cross posted with Tar-a.... you forget one thing though, what if all the wolves happened to be female? I mean, if it was random, it is plausible to happen.... so if we embark ourselves in a "Let's lynch the males" campaign, we might find that all of a sudden the wolves change their collective minds and get rid of a male as well.... finding the traitor in their midst.

Could he have been telling the truth? That all four wolves are female? I think it's more likely that he didn't want to be killed himself, but we can't eliminate the possibility.

Post #352:
Calls TGWBS's plan "crazy". Probably because he knows he'll be one of the first guys lynched.

if we set out to do it, it's a win for the werewolves. No, they won't be too silent, but of course they won't be too loud... the female werewolves just have to go with the flow of the village, discussing calmly the death of every single male, even their furry counterparts. Given that they know who the males are (and given that the male werewolves will probably accept their faith and make the sacrifice) they'll accuse them, look innocent enough for the rest of the village and sail easily for the win.

This implies there are male wolves. Although he might just be saying this because I'd already made the point.

Responds to Kath, who had pointed out his seemingly apologetic vote for Anguirel on Day One.

Post #360:
More stuff against TGWBS's plan. I'm assuming Farael did know who the wolves were (I think by now we'd all agree that it's the first thing Lhuna told him). The way he's arguing with TGWBS, it doesn't seem like he's a wolf. It seems like honest argument ("you just don't see it, do you?") But of course he wouldn't act like he know TGWBS was a werewolf, even if he did know it.

Post #366:
Answer's Eomer's defense of TGWBS's plan. Says Eomer is beginning to worry him. Possibly accusing an innocent just so the wolves don't catch on to him, or maybe he, too, thought Eomer was the other seer, and wanted to cast suspicion on him so that accusations towards Lhuna wouldn't be trusted.

Post #370:
Corrects himself as to [B]Eomer[B]'s stance on TGWBS's plan. (Eomer said he would suspect people who were against double-lynchings, not people against the plan)

Post #386:

Originally Posted by Farael

TGWBS, I know you are not the seer because you are accusing me.... and I find it very unsettling how you try to manipulate the village.

Trying to cast suspicion on an innocent? Possibly. Might also be accusing another wolf... but is that likely? Might he not be afraid that the wolves would kill him that night? Or might he feel safe, knowing that the wolves could see he was under suspicion and wouldn't kill him, since it would lead back to those he had accused?

Post #389:
Wants us to lynch Kath and then TGWBS a day later. If TGWBS were a wolf and Farael had gained any support for this plan, surely it would have meant Farael's death that night. Then again, he was desperate at this point. His attack on TGWBS is mostly based on his wanting to root out the lovers, which Farael says is mainly the concern of a wolf. But of course that's what he would say; He was one of the Lovers!

Post #398:
Out of desperation, I think, makes an attack on Samwise. As I've said, I think that he was pretty desperate at this point. Farael aside, I've been inclined to trust Samwise so far.

Post #402:
States plan again: lynch Kath and then TGWBS

Post #406:
Tries to ease suspicion by saying Lhuna is still on his suspect list.

Post #430:
Votes for Kath, first saying he'd rather lynch her and TGWBS than her and Lhuna. Also accuses Formendacil of being one of the lovers, with Kath as, possibly, the other Lover.

Formen, either you are a cunning lover or a cunning wolf. But you are too cunning for this village anyhow.

He italicized "a cunning wolf"; I doubt this was meant to honestly tell us something, probably just to imply that even if Form didn't die when Kath did, he might still be guilty. Farael was probably just trying to get suspicion on anyone else at this point.

Post #431:
Final plea to vote for Kath and not Lhuna

My main conclusion here is that you can take any statement and argue that he was telling the truth or lying just as convincingly, so I don't think we should use his posts as our MAIN reason for a lynching. (Great conclusion to come up with after spending so long on this ) I've already expressed concern about TGWBS, so I'd appreciate thoughts from people who haven't already got opinions on him (although I suppose we all have opinions on everyone).

Okay, analysis over. Sorry it's so long, sorry if I've missed anything. But here it is, hope it's helpful.

[Cailín]

Oh wonderful, Caranlondien. Whether you turn out to be an innocent or not, I must compliment you on your fine analyses so far.

I know what I have learned if TGWBS turns out to be a wolf as well... Do not tell your innocent lover the identities of your fellows. It can only harm them in the end.

Be back soon.

[the guy who be short]

Lommy - If you wish to be taken seriously, I strongly advise you to actually read what went on.

Formy - voted for Kath first. Could be a clever wolf foreseeing that people would be suspicious of the Lhuna-bandwagon and wanting to get distance from Kath in case she'd be lynched and revealed a wolf.

I doubt that a wolf would bring in a second wolf at such a point.

TGWBS - not taking sides in the Lhuna - Kath -debate.

I was vehemently against lynching Kath as the plan made absolutely no sense.

Valier and especially Naria: probably foresaw Kath's doom and jumped on the bandwagon to seem innocent.

By this point, the village had decided to double lynch Kath and Lhuna. Those votes followed the plan and are not at all remarkable.

However, this seems to speak in your favour. I can't see a wolf being so utterly careless and...

Be polite.

I was, Abrahadam. Sigh. Alter-egos...

Originally Posted by Caran

[Farael] italicized "a cunning wolf"; I doubt this was meant to honestly tell us something

I find that very interesting, and credit far more to it than you do.

since TGWBS has managed to get me back under suspicion (though I can't blame him, since I've been accusing him for days)

You remain, Caran, in my neutral category.

Originally Posted by Lal

Oh and Guy, I don't think any of us who voted for Lhuna are exonerated. As I said in my first post, the wolves would probably have realised, by Farael's febrility, that Lhuna was the traitor. They would have been as glad to see the back of her as the rest of us.

Good point, and one that I feel points to your innocence.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

By this point, the village had decided to double lynch Kath and Lhuna. Those votes followed the plan and are not at all remarkable.

Hmmm... That's why they are - they just followed a plan, they didn't have to decide themselves. A good choice for a wolf - you can't be accused of it afterwards.

I have to vote very soon.

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

I find that very interesting, and credit far more to it than you do.

I must agree with you here. Why would Farael take the trouble to italicise (is that a word?) this?

On the one hand, I doubt he'd attack more than one wolf in one Day. That would be an act of desperation... but Farael could have been trying to tell us something.

It is curious indeed. I won't forget.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

I doubt that a wolf would bring in a second wolf at such a point.

I stand corrected; I read his post and understand your point and actually agree with you. I don't still rule out the possibility that he's trying to kill Kath in order to seem very innocent. Or maybe he believed Kath to be the lover-wolf, and preferred to get rid of her instead of Lhuna. You never know.

[the guy who be short]

I will have to vote soon next hour or so) and am not sure whether to vote for Naria, Glirdan or myself.

I'm leading towards Naria because something doesn't feel right. Infact, I'm not sure what that is...

I feel an analysis coming on. You realise you should be doing Latin, don't you?

Shut up, Abrahadam.

[Thinlómien]

TGWBS - I'm probably going to vote you. If you're having anything to say to your defense, please do it soon for I can't be online for long anymore.

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by TGWBS

>Quote:
>Originally Posted by Caran
>[Farael] italicized "a cunning wolf"; I doubt this was meant to honestly tell us something<

I find that very interesting, and credit far more to it than you do.

Actually, I pointed it out for a reason; because I thought it might be significant, and I wanted to see what others thought. But I'm confused now; Farael said that when talking about Formendacil, and you say you think it's significant. What about when you said:

Originally Posted by TGWBS

>Quote:
>Formy - voted for Kath first. Could be a clever wolf foreseeing that people would be suspicious of the Lhuna-bandwagon and wanting to get distance from Kath in case she'd be lynched and revealed a wolf.<
I doubt that a wolf would bring in a second wolf at such a point.

What do you think of Formendacil? Within the same post, you seem to be defending him and accusing him. Maybe I misinterpreted one of the things you said...

Edit: Distinguishing betweeen TGWBS quoting me and me quoting him

[the guy who be short]

Post 29

Says little of importantce.

Post 103

Votes for me, as she would normally vote for Nilp in such a situation, and I'm filling in for him. This is actually very normal for her, but she could be hiding behind it. There is never, of course, reason to lynch people based on character.

Post 220

Nothing

Post 225

Claims to be surprised that Lover's can divulge wolvish info to one another.

Post 280

Very upset that Thinlo thinks she is scary. Jumps on Eonwe bandwagon.

Post 420

Says my plan will not work. It would.

Trusts Farael a little. With the amount of evidence he gave?

Sees that people suspect Kath, so claims that there have been "damning posts" convincing her of Kath's guilt. Righty...

Also suspects Lhuna. This is where she states she'll wait to see what happens before voting, which unnerves me.

Post 439

~

Post 442

Confused.

Post 443

Votes Kath on Farael's advice. Says there's only one way for somebody to know somebody else's role with certainty. Didn't we discuss the lovers earlier?

Post 449

Picks on Gurthang for using general instead of specific terms.


She really seems to have said little worth saying...

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

Post #389:
Wants us to lynch Kath and then TGWBS a day later. If TGWBS were a wolf and Farael had gained any support for this plan, surely it would have meant Farael's death that night. Then again, he was desperate at this point. His attack on TGWBS is mostly based on his wanting to root out the lovers, which Farael says is mainly the concern of a wolf. But of course that's what he would say; He was one of the Lovers!

This was valuable for me to read. I remember that when I read Farael's comment about the wolves being more concerned to find the Lovers than the innocents, that my mind had been leaning that way too; but maybe Farael's words convinced me of something that does not hold water. I'll have to think about that. If it's not true, then my suspicion of Guy is suddenly not as strong as it was. He is posting a lot of sense, finally! <LMP stares meaningfully at Guy> Hmmm.... but actually Farael might name the next werewolf to be lynched. So maybe Guy is a werewolf.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I'd like to see more analysis of a wider range of people. I've got a feeling there's a wolf slipping under the radar.
Valier, Caranlondien, Celuien, Naria, Lommy, for example.....

I agree with you - though I'd remove myself from the list as I know I'm innocent.
Of those you mention I'm most concerned about Celuien and Naria. Valier seems innocent to me (I don't know why) and Cara has been quite helpful to the village and seems guileless.

Guy has been acting very wolvishly, though there's one thing that speaks for his innocents. After continuously claiming to be a wolf he slipped "we innocents" in one post. Of course that could be overtly cunning wolf-tactics, but I doubt it...