Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[Farael]

Cross posted with Cailin:

Those two comments by Spawn were made on the same day!!! A seer would not change her views of a wolf she's going after mid-day. I'm not trying to say that Lhuna is not a wolf though and you might be on to something when you say that maybe both women are wolves... but I think that Spawn's change of mind during the day shows that she was going after a "wolfishly looking" unknown rather than a known wolf. There is no reason for a seer who has chosen to go all out against a wolf to change their views mid-day. If anything, it will make her accusations seem like a flip-flop.

[Cailín]

You are wrong there, Farael. The first (rephrased) comment by Spawn was made on Day 1, the second was made on Day 2.

I see now Spawn did not immediately attack Lhuna, but she did shortly after she made her first post. I can think of merely two reasons why Seer-Spawn would attack anyone so strongly. It is not like her to be very outspoken in her accusations anyway:

1) She did not believe Lhuna to be wolvish at all and wished to delude the true wolves.

2) She was almost convinced to the point of sure that Lhuna is a wolf. She must have known that she would be a likely target - she is always a likely target - for the wolves had Lhuna been lynched and found guilty. I just don't believe she would be so easily swayed by the other villagers.

--

Your ideas concerning Kath are not at all far-fetched, Farael, but I think you are dismissing the Lhuna case too easily.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Cailín

You are wrong there, Farael. The first (rephrased) comment by Spawn was made on Day 1, the second was made on Day 2.

If that's the case, then I must correct my notes. Still, I think that

*Spawn seemed to be rather swayed by the villagers about Lhuna

*Spawn was not swayed at all with regards to Kath, even if some people argued in Kath's favour.

*Odds are against the Seers having found two wolves (specially now that I know they only get one dream/night)

Now, I still find Kath more suspicious than Lhuna... and I think the big fuss made about Lhuna's vote is misguided. Sure, Lhuna was (Hope you forgive me... and that the ProphetNilp does not smite me in a fit of brotherly love) pretty silly as it would (and did) make her look as lupine as it gets.... but that's the only strong piece of evidence we have against her

Her edgyness can be attributed at the fact that many people were suspecting her.

Now, I don't want to defend Lhuna, but it seems the best way to explain my thoughts about Kath... I think that one of them is a wolf (at least) and I think that it's more likely than Kath is a wolf than Lhuna. It might just be me, but I think it's better to take a risk trying to clear the air now rather than later....

Here's what I propose, feel free to reject it:
*We lynch Kath, whom I still think is the most suspicious

*If Kath is a wolf, we celebrate

*If Kath is not a wolf and Lhuna does nothing to change our collective minds, we lynch her

*If neither Kath nor Lhuna turn out to be wolves, I shall start thinking that I'm not as smart as I feel right now.....

*If either is a wolf.... it will be up to each of us to decide whether or not we think it's likely that both will be. I am uncertain on that matter and so I can't really plan for it.

I will get a lot of heat for "trying to sway the village" but I have my reasons and I'm sticking to them. If anyone can come up with a better plan, speak up.... It might be a little early on the day for me to propose a plan as wolves could latch on to it, create a bandwagon and hide in the background noise..... but I am "so certain" that either Kath or Lhuna are a wolf and pretty much convinced that Kath is rather than Lhuna that I am hoping you all will agree.

Now, THAT WAS NOT A SEER HINT. Please, note that I wrote ""so certain"" (in between "" thingies that I can't recall how they are called) and "pretty much convinced".... I'm basing this certainty and convincement on my reasoning, in which I believe strongly.... And if you don't think I am, maybe you should learn your history and read up on the Eighteenth time a village has been infected by wolves *hint, hint*... and sorry Nilp but it IS in itallics... so it's allowed, right?

[Lalaith]

Lhuna was not a likely dream suspect,

Farael, I'm not sure if I've understood you correctly here, but if I have, I'm not sure I agree with you. If I were a Seer in Nilp's game, I'd dream of Lhuna asap!

As for what we should do today, I'd started combing through spawn's posts this morning but I now find I've been called away. By the time I get back, a lot more people will be around (I expect) and a consensus may already have been reached. Oh well, I'll try to be as helpful as I can when I get back.

But, oh woe! Four innocents gone, including our incomparable Seer-spawn - this is not looking good, villagers....

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

If I were a Seer in Nilp's game, I'd dream of Lhuna asap!

You forgot to say Why, Lailath.... and let me remind you that you, unlike Lhuna, were suspected by Spawn on day 1

EDIT: Ok, now I get why... but I think most mods will roll a dice or something... maybe Spawn was an exception as she and ModNilp seem to get along pretty well but.... to choose everyone by hand? Too unlikely.

[the guy who be short]

Day 1


Post 7

~

Post 17

Jokingly reprimands Cailin for unreasoned vote. Nothing serious, as it wasn't really her fault and she had nothing to go on.

Post 30

Says Valier and I are probably not lovers. Damn right. We're not that stupid, are we, love?

Ambiguous regarding Cailin.

Post 124

Cailin, Eomer, TGWBS, lmp, Valier - ambiguous about us.

Says Lal could be seen as suspicious due to safe vote.

Says Kath's vote was weird.

Disagrees with tar-a, but says her vote is the best reasoned.

Celuien - says she doesn't look suspicious.

Glirdan - confused regarding him, but says he acts normal.

Farael - says he's acting normal.

Caralondien - not suspicious.

Post 128

Votes Eonwe. Says Lhuna makes sense.

Post 129

~

Post 132

~


Day 2


Post 151

Says Anguirel's death could point to Kath and Eomer, and could not.

Says Ang's death could make Glirdan look bad, but she doesn't support this theory.

Post 164

Says Lhuna needs closer examining. Points at her "I was afraid Ang may have been a bold Seer" statement.

Says Form's tie-making is interesting and risky.

Post 166

Not suspicious of Naria, because she's acting normally.

Post 175

~

Post 193

Points out to Eomer that Kath had spoken before Ang accused her. She also had to point this out to tar-a.

Tells Lhuna that votes saving Garin don't tell us much.

Post 199

Snaps at Eonwe for not suspecting anybody, but says she won't vote again because there are better candidates. [Considering her vote on Day 1, I believe she dreamt of Eonwe]

Wants to hear from Naria.

Post 207

Says wolves would not bother killing people to set up others, rather than trying to get Seers. Points at Kath or Lalaith and Cailin.

Says Ang probably died for protecting Garin and not for suspecting Kath.

Post 212

Votes Lhuna based on previous evidence, new behaviour, and a twisted quote.



Conclusion

I believe spawn did not dream of Lhuna on Night 2 and find her a wolf. I find it likely that she dreamt of Eonwe, whom she chastised for being unhelpful, but refused to vote for again. I see this as an attempt to get him to talk more and be a better asset to the village, now that she knew him to be innocent.

So, that meant we have only two useful dreams, as the Eonwe dream was wasted. From spawn, we can hope only to find one. As there is nobody she strongly defends, I see attempting to do so as a fruitless, if not dangerous, exercise.

So why was spawn killed? A threatened Lhuna wolf certainly looks likely, but perhaps they only wanted to get rid of the gender imbalance and chose somebody sensible who suspected few people and was under no suspicion herself.

Conclusion of Conclusion:

Ambiguous.

[the guy who be short]

A few cross-posts here.

Farael, you make sense, and you do not make sense. The sense you have made is enough to assuage my suspicion of you.

You make sense in saying Lhuna was not dreamt of. 'Twould be most unlikely.

However, you seem convinced that Kath was dreamt of. Why? Why would the Seers pick Kath? Surely they would go for TGWBS, or Garin, or LMP, or Eomer? The loudmouths who attract attention.

I see no reason why Kath would be dreamt of on Night 2 after Day 1s proceedings. Unless Eomer had already been dreamt of and found innocent. Hmm.

But still, I don't think her accusation is anywhere strong enough to condemn Kath. She remains wholly ambiguous.


No wolves were dreamt of.

[Farael]

I beg to differ TGWBS.... Spawn had voiced worries about Kath during Day 1.... and the loudmouths are more often than not, innocent. Let's face it, we both know that Wolves usually hide in the shadows... or at least, most wolves in the pack do.

Kath fits the bill to the T, and Spawn's constant reminder that we should not forget about her seems like a subtle hint that we should lynch her... subtle enough that it won't raise suspicions by the wolves, but clear enough so that we can follow it if she dies.

And she's dead, thus I say we follow it!!!

[the guy who be short]

Fine. I, personally, will look up the spawn quotes on Kath. Because I don't trust either of you.

And it's hard not to be ambiguous when spawn was so ambiguous, and my posts thus far have been an analysis of her words.


I shall, in fact, use direct quotes. There's little material on the subject. All quotes from spawn.

Kath's vote seems somewhat weird.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kath
Because (though I think this is repeating a past argument) if he's a wolf then better to get rid of him now, and if he's an innocent we won't be worrying about whether he's a wolf for the rest of the game! A hedging your bets argument it is I'll admit, but it's all I have.

As she admits, she repeats almost exactly the same words as tar-a in her past life. That reasoning got her in a bit of trouble then, but she turned out to be an innocent. Something in Kath's voting feels funny especially because if Eomer is innocent, it's good to keep him around. Post 124.

Why was Anguirel killed? What did he say?

#21, pointed at Kath and Eomer.
"For one, I don't like the stamp of that musician fella."
"The varmint claims to have disguised a were-army of hedgehogs under green shells and hidden them in a turtle farm. What d'ye have to say to that, Empress Kath of the Dread Meerkat Wandering Horde? Ha ha!" ~Ang

"I don't think Ang's early mention of Kath has anything to do with anything. I assumed from the beginning that it was just Day 1 histrionics, and that's why in my summary I barely mentioned it. And now that he's been proven not to have been a Seer, it can't possibly mean anything. She hadn't spoken yet--he was pulling her name out of the air. She may well merit a closer look, but not for this reason." ~tar-ancalime

Actually, at the time when Anguirel mentioned Kath, she had already spoken.

I think it's probable that the wolves don't want to waste their time for frame-ups when there are two Seers around. The sooner the wolves get rid of the Seers, the less incriminating information there is. Possibly makes Kath or Eomer look bad. Post 151

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eomer
So why all this talk of a set-up of Kath? Both Lalaith and Cailín mention that the death of Anguirel so obviously leads back to Kath that it must be a set-up.

Huh?

I find that funny, too. I'd like to point out that not all Nightly deaths are frame-ups. The wolves want to find the Seers, and since there are two of them now, it's even more important for the lycans to quickly get rid of the them. I just don't understand why wolves would see so much trouble in framing someone up. Anguirel might have been killed because of him defending Garin or whatever, but it's weird that these two say that the wolves obviously set Kath up. Maybe Kath is a wolf. Maybe Lalaith and Cailín are wolves who did set her up. Maybe I'll change the subject before I get myself confused.

You're basing all your suspicions on these three posts. Constant reminders? I see only mild accusations. This has made me think the worse of you both.

[Farael]

Suit yourself guy, suspect me as you please... there are a few more "reminders", read up to my post if you want to see where I found them. Then you can go check by yourself.

And why so shrill? have we stepped on a nerve? we accuse Kath and you accuse us.... why TGWBS?

[Cailín]

Fine. I, personally, will look up the spawn quotes on Kath. Because I don't trust either of you.

The feeling is mutual.

TGWBS, if you read my posts correctly (or maybe as I intended them), I do not really believe Spawn dreamt of Kath either. I think she dreamt of Lhuna.

I just really don't think the Seers dreamt of Eonwe.

Edit: cross-posted with Farael, who is beginning to act a little odd.

[the guy who be short]

I must go, but I want to raise a final, very controversial point before I do so.


We should systematically double lynch the male gender until we find the lovers.

There are 8 men and 10 women. If we systematically lynch men, we get the following:

Day 3 - 6 men, 10 women.
Night 4 - 6, 9
Day 4 - 4, 9
Night 5 - 4, 8
Day 5 - 2, 8
Night 6 - 2, 7
Day 6 - 0, 7

This is the worst case scenario. However, I don't think it will be that bad.


Think about it. There is a 100% chance that there is a lover in the male gender. By lynching 2 men today, we have a 25% chance of finding him. If this fails, we try again tomorrow. We have a 33% chance of lynching him. Overall, we stand a 50% chance of getting the lovers in the first two days!

Some may not view the lovers as as important as the wolves, but they are dangerous dissidents - especially the innocent lover, who appears as an innocent to the Seer. We can bring the enemies of the village down from 5 to 3 rather quickly.


And this is just thinking of the lovers. That maths doesn't count the fact that there are likely to be wolves in the 8 men too.

Each man, at present, stands a 2/9 chance of being a wolf. This means there is an 87% chance (1 - [7/9]^8) that there is at least one wolf in those eight men, possibly two, three or even four.



Taking this into account:

We have a 25% chance of lynching the lovers and a 22% chance of lynching a wolf this day.

If we get nothing, there are 6 men, 9 women left. There is a 4/15, or 26% chance of a wolf, and a 33% chance of a lover.


There's a lot of maths, but overall, if we double lynch all men, we have an over 50% chance of catching village dissidents in two days!

So, is it worth the cost of all those innocents?

I say yes. We increase our overall chances of winning, villagers, if we follow this strategy. More importantly, it is far easier to find wolves once we have got one wolf to work from.

[Cailín]

[Considering her vote on Day 1, I believe she dreamt of Eonwe]

I find this wholly unlikely.

1) Spawn is not the only Seer.

2) I find it very hard to believe - much harder to believe in fact, than a dream of Kath - the Seers would dream of Eonwe on the second night.

However, you seem convinced that Kath was dreamt of. Why? Why would the Seers pick Kath? Surely they would go for TGWBS, or Garin, or LMP, or Eomer? The loudmouths who attract attention.

I am not saying you are wrong, but you risk underestimating people like Kath and the Seers. Loudmouths like Garin and TGWBS ( ) are far too good at getting themselves lynched early on, while players like Kath, newbie Caranlondien and Lalaith are better at staying undercover.

Besides, you are disagreeing with yourself here.

Conclusion of Conclusion:

Ambiguous.

That's the way of the game, but you are definitely all flip-floppy and ambiguous right now.