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03-19-2006, 04:29 AM
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#1 |
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Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: In hospitals, call rooms and (rarely) my apartment.
Posts: 1,538
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Given my limited time, I’ll go through her posts and see who she defends, who she accuses and how strongly she does. I think it’s fair to guess that if she defends/accuses someone strongly, it might be someone she’s dreamt about. Remember that there are two “seer/sheriff”s so we have four people dreamt of so far. Two on day 1 and two on day 2 (I think)
Day 1 Post 7 Her first post. Makes a few “in character” comments and then answers a few things that have been said before her. Nothing too remarkable. Post 17 Answers more concerns… nothing I can see as a hint of having found a wolf or an ordo. Post 30 Defends Valier and Cailin. Post 124 (there was another post before that but it was just a comment that she was around and she’d be back after she caught up with all that had happened)… (and sigh, she commented on everyone. Ok, here we go… I won’t add her comments on the dead ones) Disregards Cailin’s and TGWBS’s vote as it’s based in occupations Finds Lailath’s vote somewhat suspicious Finds Kath’s vote somewhat weird. Thinks that Tar-a’s vote was well reasoned, although she disagrees with her. Does not find Celuien’s vote suspicious Finds LMP’s vote disconcerting but not exactly suspicious Thinks Glirdan has not been far too out of his normal self, but expresses some concern over his vote. Thinks I’m acting as expected, although she disagrees with what I think Thinks that Naria is also being her usual self, although Spawn doesn’t like her vote Thinks that Caranlondien is not suspicious Does not like Valier’s vote but thinks that she cannot tell much from it. Post 128 Thinks that Lhuna is making sense, votes for Eonwe (but obviously, she has not dreamt of him as we know he’s not a wolf. Post 129 Jokes about SamwiseGamgee making a wolfish slip-up Post 132 Jokes around with Formen. End of the day, my thoughts so far: The seers did not find a wolf on Day 1. Spawn voted for a (now) known innocent and did not leave anything I could find as a ‘hint’ of someone being a wolf. It’s logical, after all, as odds were against the seers finding a wolf on their first dream. Also, I think Spawn was likely to dream of someone she’s suspected, so I will not comment on the “possible innocents” as she’s not likely to have dreamt of them (Lhuna will be an exception as Spawn’s vote for her needs to be explained one way or another) For possible wolves: Lailath Kath For possible innocents: Valier Cailin Lhuna Day 2 Post 151 (Goes through Anguirel’s posts, I won’t comment on that but on her thoughts about other villagers) Thinks that we should not disregard our suspicions of Kath after the night’s death. Mildly defends Glirdan Post 164 Thinks that the “Lhuna issue” should be looked after more closely Questions and accuses Lhuna quite strongly Post 166 Analyzes Naria, Seems to think that Naria is innocent first, but then says that “a horrible thought just occurred her” and that Naria might not be as innocent as she thought. Post 175 Explains Thinlomien that Naria did not slip up on something she said. Post 193 Still argues that we should not get our minds off Kath Defends Naria again against accusations of a slip up Then she answers something Lhuna said, but I’m not sure what she means. Post 199 Tells Eonwe to explain more her thought process Wants to hear more from Naria Post 207 Again comments that we should not get our sights off Kath Post 212 Votes for Lhuna based on a comment made by her (Lhuna) and the arguments made by other villagers. End of day Ok, my thoughts…. I think that Spawn has dreamt of a wolf, but not the obvious one. In Day 1 it did not seem as if Spawn suspected Lhuna at all…. And why would she dream of her if she did not suspect her? She had voiced concerns about Kath and Lailath more loudly than the rest… and then, on day two we find that Spawn keeps on reminding us not to write off Kath as innocent just yet. Call me crazy, but that all-but confirms my suspicions of Kath being a wolf. Think about it. Anguirel made a joking remark about Kath that was misinterpreted as a seer comment (aided by other things he said) and he was killed…. It’s only logical that a seer Spawn would be MUCH more careful. I think that she was hinting at what she knew in a way that would reveal itself if she died. Well, she’s dead now, and I think it’s time to read behind the lines. Lhuna was not a likely dream suspect, and given that there are 4 wolves, there are still plenty of villagers and another seer, it’s (very) likely that Spawn did not want to risk voting for a wolf and blowing up her cover so soon… and thus she voted for her most likely to be a wolf unknown. Now, I’m not saying that Lhuna is NOT a wolf for sure… all I’m saying is that Spawn probably did not dream of her on Night 2 and it sure looks as if she was pointing at Kath very subtly, yet very consistently. Ok, that’s all I have for now…. I think that Kath is a wolf and I shall vote for her today. I ask of you fellow villagers, go through Spawns posts by yourself and tell me if I’m wrong…. I’m sure you will agree P.S: That was not a seer hint or anything like that.... it was just the confindence that comes from a well done reasoning.
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I prepared Explosive Runes this morning. |
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03-19-2006, 06:44 AM
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#2 | |
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Itinerant Songster
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: The Edge of Faerie
Posts: 7,066
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Quote:
And villagers, let's please stop casting votes based on what annoys us? Annoyances are highly subjective and tell us little about the suspected person, a lot more about ourselves. So Eonwe wasn't being helpful; he wasn't causing any real problems either. We should be more concerned about villagers that are casting suspicion where it ought not to rest than people who vote on a whim, or declare themselves werewolves. Such folks are distractors. As to Guy, his declaration that he is a werewolf is only one fact out of many facing us. Let's please not let it carry more wait, nor less, than it should. |
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03-19-2006, 06:56 AM
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#3 |
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Itinerant Songster
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: The Edge of Faerie
Posts: 7,066
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Okay, I've scanned everything so far. Not read carefully, just scanned ... to get a general sense of the arguments.
On Farael: 2 possibilities occur to me: 1. He has picked his target and is going whole hog after that one person until that person's identity is known one way or the other. This would not be a surprise. 2. He could be a desperate lover, doing all he can to protect his wolvish love. I suggest that we double lynch Lhuna and Farael today, and clear up this confusion. |
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03-19-2006, 07:02 AM
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#4 |
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Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: In hospitals, call rooms and (rarely) my apartment.
Posts: 1,538
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Ok, I lied... I haven't gone to bed yet, but what keeps me up is not really werewolf related.
Anyway, LMP you are a smart man.... there's no denying that. But I never meant my posts to be The One List of Evidence..... I bothered to add "Post number" so that you all could go back and look at it. Humor me, do it... you will find (I hope) the same thing I did. Just make sure you go through all the posts I mentioned and you look carefully enough. Remember, this is a game of details. And if you think I'm the male lover, why don't you lynch me and Kath? or Lhuna and Kath? if Lhuna and I are the lovers, then we'll die together.... but given that at least I'm innocent, I know it won't happen. As I (tried to) show before, I will let myself be lynched if it's for the better of the village... but I don't think that I have been rendered useless just yet. Maybe this is another of my crazy theories and feel free to prove me wrong. But until you do, I will still have Kath as my prime suspect and Lhuna as a possibility for later on.... Edit: Cross posted with Tar-a.... you forget one thing though, what if all the wolves happened to be female? I mean, if it was random, it is plausible to happen.... so if we embark ourselves in a "Let's lynch the males" campaign, we might find that all of a sudden the wolves change their collective minds and get rid of a male as well.... finding the traitor in their midst. Furthermore, what if the Seer is male? I think it's too early for TGWBS's plan.
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I prepared Explosive Runes this morning. |
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03-19-2006, 07:29 AM
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#5 |
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Auspicious Wraith
Join Date: May 2002
Location: The Netherlands
Posts: 4,859
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I think the wolves are, for the most part, staying out of this Seer talk. They want the villagers to get in a tangle all by themselves.
I think we should double-lynch Kath and Lhuna. The day after, Glirdan and Farael.
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Los Ingobernables de Harlond |
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03-19-2006, 07:44 AM
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#6 |
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Auspicious Wraith
Join Date: May 2002
Location: The Netherlands
Posts: 4,859
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Response to TGWBS's & Tar-A's votes
Yeah, I like defending myself. If I didn't you'd say I was hiding, so here goes.
If 0 wolves were voted for on Day One, then they start looking to villager defences to find a Seer. Anguirel defended Garin, so they kill him. If 1 wolf voted for on Day One, they are scared of Seer dreaming about said wolf. Example: If LMP is a wolf, they kill Eomer or Gurthang because they voted for him. This could only have been the case if Glirdan was the one wolf (which was my mistake). I have no idea where I got that 0 or greater-than-1 idea. It was a mistake. I was thinking out loud. Wolves generally don't make stupid mathematical mistakes like that. If I am a wolf I don't make mathematical posts because I'm not clever at it. Because I'm innocent I can afford to just type whatever the hell I'm thinking at that time. I think that stupid post I made actually speaks in my favour! Anyway, the answer could be obvious: Anguirel was killed because Glirdan feared him. Or: we were totally wrong in our Day One voting. Anyway... Tar, I referred to Anguirel's post #21 and not his post #69. He accused both me and Kath there. I'm not denying that Anguirel's death implicated Kath, me and Glirdan. In fact, that was my whole point. I was asking why Farael defended Kath and not me when we were both mentioned in #21; and I asked why certain villagers were quick to point out that Anguirel's death made Kath look bad, while at the same time ignoring me and Glirdan. I don't understand what is wolvish about that. * And a quick response to Glirdan. Don't play dumb with me, laddie! You know fine well what I was asking you. I'll say it again: If you are innocent, then why did the wolves not gleefully accuse you on Day Two, considering Anguirel voted for you? Seems very odd to me.
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Los Ingobernables de Harlond |
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03-19-2006, 07:47 AM
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#7 | |
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Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: In the warm bosom of a Warg
Posts: 378
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So, Spawn was a seer. This is a suprise to me, to be honest, but I'm not sure it won't also be one for our lupinous assailants. I'm inclined to agree with Tar-A in post #294 that it may have just been a ploy by the wolves to even the ratios of sexes. This then makes me think 2 things: (1) the wolves are equally split between the sexes or (2) the wolves are all male. Pure speculation, that, but just a thought. I certainly am not willing to support TGWBS's suicide pact yet, but it's something to bear in mind, I think. Playing the odds on day three whiffs somewhat of desparation, and we're not desperate yet. (Are we?) I do agree with TGWBS that the lovers do need to be taken seriously, though.
Quote:
As for Lhuna: I'm still very suspicious of her. I've yet to hear anything from her to displace my original suspicions and now that Spawn's been revealled as a seer her support of my original premiss makes me think I m ay be onto something.
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-- Well, I'm back. |
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03-19-2006, 12:23 PM
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#8 |
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Energetic Essence
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Where Lark Nor Eagle Ever Flew
Posts: 3,285
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Eonwe
Day 1 Post #26 - Starts off with the basic "Oh, there's Wolves and a traitor amongst both sides". Says that he's going to vote randomly and chooses the tenth person above which happened to be Garin if nothing else turns up to change his mind. Post #33 - Finds Lovers thing interesting. Compares the Lovers to Cobblers. Asks what the Wolves are doing about it and believe that they are doing nothing except watching their backs. Figures that the Ordo Lover is laying low. Thinks this will be a rather interesting game. Post #38 - Finds Garin's vote interesting and thinks that mass suicides won't honour our Prophet. Post #50 - Believes we should play this game like any other for when we weed out all the Wolves, the Lovers will be revealed as well. Thinks it's reasonable to guess that the Wolves are equally divided in gender then edit's and changes mind (thinks our Prophet chose the Wolves completely randomly). Post #57 - More talking about the Lovers. Post #60 - Is baffled by TGWBS but will hold off suspicions of him for later. Edits: finally realises that when one Lover dies, the other does as well. Post #62 - Quotes Garin and says that he forgot to mention he was a lazy way-faring stranger. Post #88 - Votes Garin (randomly). Says it's funny because he started the bandwagon. Day 2 Post #170 - Likes the fiery discussions that have been raised. Mourns over Ang. Says he will try to go through all of the days posts as well as the Day 1 posts for personal analysis. Post #197 - Votes Valier because he does not want to be lynched by Prophet (as said in Post #1) and Valier posted before him. Well, there's not much to gather from his Day 2 posts. I did find something interesting in Day 1 though. In his post #33, he says that he figures that the Ordo Lover is probably laying low. I'm inclined to agree with him on that and there are a few who have been rather quiet. Those would be Naria, Caranlondien, Valier and Kath. I think we should start looking at the other three (Kath has been looked at already toDay). I may not be able to return with my analysis on spawn until later.
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I'm going to buy you a kitty, I'm going to let you fall in love with the kitty, and one cold, winter night, I'm going to steal into your house and punch you in the face! Fenris Wolf
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03-19-2006, 12:32 PM
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#9 | |
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Twisted Taleswapper
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: somewhere between sanity and insanity
Posts: 1,706
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Quote:
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grand return?........ |
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03-19-2006, 12:36 PM
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#10 |
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Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Bag-Endless-Fuel
Posts: 339
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My first reaction to TGWBS's plan is that it seems foolish. I think it's a plan that the wolves would be fine going along with; they, too, want to discover the lovers. Furthermore, I think that the remaining female wolves would have an easier time hiding amongst the innocent females who would essentially have been hand-picked by the wolves, through their kills each night. As has been pointed out, there are several of us who are comparatively quiet (for my part, it's due to lack of experience
) At the end of TGWBS's plan, the remaining female wolves would be able to use that quietness to shift suspicion to the wrong people. In fact, TGWBS's plan seems like one the wolves might come up with...
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03-19-2006, 01:07 PM
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#11 |
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Energetic Essence
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Where Lark Nor Eagle Ever Flew
Posts: 3,285
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Spawn
Day 1 Post #7 - Mourns the loss of our Prophet. Agrees witht Lhuna that Day 1's aren't just random blabberings and also believes that it is highly likely that no Wolf would get voted for that Day. Thinks people should vote for someone they find most suspicious then says we should leave the voting talk for when that time comes around. Finds it good that Lalaith wants to help the quiet ones yet believes that it will be easier for the loudmouth Wolves to hide if she does so. Post #17 - Quotes Thinlo and says that you are not bandwagoning if your vote is for someone that you think is guilty. Continues by saying that as long as someone gives a good reasoning behind their vote, it will help us find the Wolves. Quotes Ang and says that as soon as all the Wolves are dead, the mysterious Lover will be too. Reagards the Ordo Lover as a Cobbler. Post #30 - Quotes Gurth and Garin and disagrees that Valier and TGWBS are the Lovers. Quotes Samwise and says that Cailin was just filling out her duties as town gossip and that her vote for Lalaith is purely random. Post #124 - Takes a moment to ponder the voting. Can't tell much of Cailin or TGWB's vote. Thinks that Garin might have been bluffing when he said "I am actually not sure what came over me, I've always held the suicidal with great contempt." Thinks that Lalaith's vote for TGWBS could be considered as suspicious because her votes is based on occupation. Can't make hide or tail of Eomer's master plan so doesn't think of anything of his vote. Finds Kath's vote wierd. Finds tar's vote the best reasoned of the day. Wasn't impressed by Eonwe's voting reasons. Finds Celuien's vote reasoned. Doesn't know what to think of Glirdan's reasoning but finds him acting completely normal. Finds Farael is acting normal but disagrees with his voting reason. Finds Naria's behaviour completely normal but doesn't like it. Doesn't find Caranlondien suspcious. Can't tell much of Valier's vote for Glirdan as she doesn't give reasoning why she finds him suspicious. Post #128 - Votes Eonwe because his vote is to wierd. Day 2 Post #151 - Wants to go through Ang's posts even though Tar had already done so. Finds that most of Ang's posts were speaking against Glirdan yet she finds that Glirdan had been acting like usual. Doesn't think the Wolves went after Ang because he was a Seer but assumes that the Wolves are trying to get rid of them ASAP. Post #164 - Quotes Lalaith and asks why would the Wolves have though Ang was Garin's fellow Seer if Garin was proved innocent at the end of Day 1. Finds that Lhuna's behaviour has changed. Found Form's behaviour rather risky. I have to finish here for the time being. I'll be back later (hopefully) to finish it off.
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I'm going to buy you a kitty, I'm going to let you fall in love with the kitty, and one cold, winter night, I'm going to steal into your house and punch you in the face! Fenris Wolf
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03-19-2006, 07:53 PM
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#12 | |||
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Itinerant Songster
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: The Edge of Faerie
Posts: 7,066
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sorry if this is a repeat of what others have done....
What did the dead innocent get right?
Garin: (lynched) Quote:
 Was inclined to trust Anguirel. (#73) Anguirel: (killed by werewolves) Apparently nothing of moment. Eonwe: (lynched) Huh, he says that casting a random vote on Day 2 with evidence available would indeed be idiotic, and then does so. But he did say before his infamous random vote on Day 2 that he would have a hard time getting on line, which probably meant that he couldn't do the research he intended. He did say he was sorry for randomly voting again. It now looks to me like some werewolves may have taken advantage of his infamous vote and joined the bandwagon against him. ****************** What did the dead innocent say that might be right or wrong? Garin: (lynched) #34: thinks Cailín is innocent. #79: saw abnormalities in Farael's posts. Anguirel: (killed by werewolves) # 51: defends Cailín against Samwise's suspicion. #51: Quote:
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#118: votes for Glirdan - This may be important as a signal to why he died, though the seeming seer argument seems the stronger. It would not hurt to keep an eye on Glirdan. Eonwe: (lynched) He sees the ordo-lover as a cobbler type, and suggests that this person will probably lay low. Maybe, maybe not. ***************** Who has been suspicious in voting? Day 1: Celuien and Glirdan were the middle voters for Garin. Lalaith, Naria, & Formendacil bandwagoned for Guy, but Formendacil broke the double lynch tie. Lhuna did a throw-away vote of the innocent Eonwe, leaving a double lynch tie in place. Day 2: Cailin, Kath, Lhuna, Valier, & Naria all joined Lalaith's bandwagon against the innocnet Eonwe. ************ Who has potentially shown their innocence by their voting? Samwise & Caran voted for Lhuna. ************ Who has potentially shown their innocence by sound reasoning and helpful posts? Caran and tar-ancalime, on on this new Day 3, Cailín, whom I no longer suspect strongly. ********* Who (not a known innocent) has voted for (now) known innocents? Day 1 Celuien Glirdan Farael Caran - but voted for Lhuna on Day 2 Samwise - but voted for Lhuna on Day 2 Day 2 Lalaith Cailín Kath Lhuna Valier Naria more to come...... |
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03-19-2006, 07:16 AM
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#13 |
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Itinerant Songster
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: The Edge of Faerie
Posts: 7,066
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On Guy's maths
Obviously, being in a werewolf village is a gamble in itself. However, playing the odds with possible percentages has a real chance of backfiring. The only number that I trust in your maths analysis is the 100% for a male lover. That one's obvious. But all the other numbers could prove disastrously wrong. Maybe all the werewolves are women. Think about it: the Mod God probably randomly picked roles first, getting his 2 werewolves and 2 seers, and then from the werewolves picked a lover, and from the innocents (minus seers obviously) picked the ordo lover. That means that, probabilities nonetheless, there could be all women werewolves. Obviously I can't know this, but I don't want to discount it either.
Far better to go with a thorough combing of every word said by everyone. I don't trust in probabilities, though your offering of them gives me hope that you're not a werewolf yourself. |
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03-19-2006, 07:48 AM
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#14 |
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Blithe Spirit
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,779
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Quickly popping in here -
I just want to say that I don't think we should lynch anyone before they've had a chance to say something. The reason should be obvious....
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Out went the candle, and we were left darkling |
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03-19-2006, 07:55 AM
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#15 |
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Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: In the warm bosom of a Warg
Posts: 378
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Agreed in principle, Lalaith, but sometimes that's just not possible because of the timezones. I guess what I'm saying is that an early vote shouldn't necessarily be seen as damning.
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-- Well, I'm back. |
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03-19-2006, 08:37 AM
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#16 |
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Auspicious Wraith
Join Date: May 2002
Location: The Netherlands
Posts: 4,859
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You're right Lalaith.
More fun with maths (much simpler this time): We should begin the double-lynches. They ensure that more kills are made by the village than the wolves. They ensure that we have greater chances of catching wolves. And my picks for today, though I agree we should wait to hear from them, are Kath and Lhuna. I don't think games should include double-lynchings, but since we are 'blessed' with them, it would be folly to not maximise their benefits.
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Los Ingobernables de Harlond |
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03-19-2006, 09:37 AM
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#17 |
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Sword of Spirit
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Oh, I'm around.
Posts: 1,401
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First off, sorry for the posts after Day ended yesterday. I had just jumped into reading without checking the end or the admin thread. Our dear Prophet has told me the posts can remain, which is good, because I don't have to retype my thoughts now.
Later I'll finish up the reading and catch up on everything. Oi, long day coming...
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I'm on a Mission from God. |
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03-19-2006, 07:01 AM
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#18 | |
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Shade of Carn Dûm
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: abaft the beam
Posts: 303
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Quote:
That leaves 6 people. Real worst-case? Three innocents, three wolves. Game over. I think you have an intriguing idea, but it's one that we can't let play out to this conclusion. This is assuming that at least three wolves are women, which is unlikely, but if the wolves were chosen at random it's not out of the realm of possibility.
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Having fun wolfing it to the bitter end, I see, gaur-ancalime (lmp, ww13) |
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Hybrid Mode
