Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Naria

I want you to answer my question this time, please Thinlo. WHY AM I SO SCARY?? I remember asking the very same in a past village we were in and didn't get a response.

This time you're scary, because you're silent. That makes me uneasy.

Originally Posted by Naria

However, I don't know where you got the 'rudely' part from.

I seem to be good at giving people wrong impressions. The "rudely" wasn't about your posts; it was like: "To say it rudely, she posts nonsense." I'm sorry if my unfluent English causes confusion.

I looked quickly through spawn's posts. Lhuna was the only one she really expressed being suspicious about.

[the guy who be short]

I don't trust any of you.

I promise an analysis of spawn in a few hours. Anybody else wishing to analyse her, feel free. Remember, the more people we get looking over what she's said, the more chance we have innocents analysing her, the greater the chance we can trust what we can read. Ideally, we'd have six analyses to guarantee one innocent in there, but this is a bit much to ask.

[tar-ancalime]

You know, this is just off the top of my head here, but spawn may have been killed in a wolves' attempt to re-even out the balance of sexes:

We went into last Night with three dead men, leaving eleven women and only eight men alive. Now, yesterday Cailin suggested that we systematically lynch men, unbalancing the village enough to make it easier to pick out one of the Lovers. I countered that by saying it was an interesting strategy but likely too early, as the village is still very large.

It could be that the wolves disagreed with me and decided to even things back out. Why? I think the wolves already know who the traitor is among them. I think they're going to let that person live for a while, though, because as long as there are Lovers there is an added element of confusion among the villagers. Having the Lovers alive at this stage of the game helps the wolves; and if they know which of their own is against them, it will be easy enough for them to kill that person off when it becomes necessary. They'll eliminate their internal threat and take down another villager to boot. I propose that we will see this happen when the village finally lynches a wolf. Until then, though, the wolves' safety is enhanced by keeping the Lovers alive. And in the meantime, keeping a more balanced village population lessens our chances of isolating one or both of the Lovers in a shrinking pool of candidates.

spawn was under no real suspicion; she was writing lucid, smart posts; maybe they had pegged her as a Seer to boot; but I think she was killed for being a smart girl.

Or maybe it's simpler--I freely admit I haven't taken the time yet to look at spawn's posts yet. I will do it, and with the question in mind that I proposed yesterday for all wolf kills in this game: What did she get right?

[Cailín]

I think one of the biggest problems of this village is that we don't work together. We're divided in several factions disputing with each other and it's always only by one or two votes majority that an innocent is lynched.

I do agree with this, Thinlomien. Hopefully, with a few less villagers communicating may become a bit easier.

But what if you're a werewolf, Cailin? And what if your fellow werewolves are all female? Just a what-if. Did you not see the wisdom in going after the werewolves in order to get rid of the Lovers? Or are you trying to distract the villagers' attention from this most sensible villager strategy? And if so, why?

I was the first to propose such a sensible strategy. However, I was under the impression that Nilp would have ensured a wolf team consisting of as many males as females. Ergo, the chance of finding a wolf would be much higher when lynching a suspicious male than a suspicious female.

That might be a bit presumptuous, I admit, I'm thinking too much about what I would have done were I the Mod of this game.

Cailin keeps defending Lhuna. Either she is guileless or desperately trying to keep her fellow werewolf from the gallows. Somehow guileless and Cailin don't seem to fit well in the same sentence.

You have the truth there, littlemanpoet, I cannot honestly claim to be an artless person. However, you missed another option. At that point in the game, I saw no reason to find Lhuna any more suspicious than anyone else.

But now things are different. Lhuna's vote for Lalaith never seemed incriminating to me. Neither did it seem so to Dancing Spawn at first, as Lhuna pointed out herself yesterDay. At the start of Day 2 however, Spawn seemed to be making a 180-degree turn, blaming Lhuna for her non-committing vote. This smells like a Seer trying to subtly point out a wolf to the rest of the village. I am not 100% certain, but I find it extremely likely the Seers chose to dream of Lhunardawen that Night and Spawn made it her objective to alert the village. Any other thoughts?

[Cailín]

spawn was under no real suspicion; she was writing lucid, smart posts; maybe they had pegged her as a Seer to boot; but I think she was killed for being a smart girl.

This seems more likely than the wolves trying to balance the sexes. They seem to have no reason to let the Lover live that long: they're with four and can afford a loss.

However, I somehow do believe they saw a Seer in Spawn. See my previous post.

[Farael]

Given my limited time, I’ll go through her posts and see who she defends, who she accuses and how strongly she does. I think it’s fair to guess that if she defends/accuses someone strongly, it might be someone she’s dreamt about. Remember that there are two “seer/sheriff”s so we have four people dreamt of so far. Two on day 1 and two on day 2 (I think)
Day 1

Post 7
Her first post. Makes a few “in character” comments and then answers a few things that have been said before her. Nothing too remarkable.

Post 17
Answers more concerns… nothing I can see as a hint of having found a wolf or an ordo.

Post 30
Defends Valier and Cailin.

Post 124 (there was another post before that but it was just a comment that she was around and she’d be back after she caught up with all that had happened)… (and sigh, she commented on everyone. Ok, here we go… I won’t add her comments on the dead ones)

Disregards Cailin’s and TGWBS’s vote as it’s based in occupations

Finds Lailath’s vote somewhat suspicious

Finds Kath’s vote somewhat weird.

Thinks that Tar-a’s vote was well reasoned, although she disagrees with her.

Does not find Celuien’s vote suspicious

Finds LMP’s vote disconcerting but not exactly suspicious

Thinks Glirdan has not been far too out of his normal self, but expresses some concern over his vote.

Thinks I’m acting as expected, although she disagrees with what I think

Thinks that Naria is also being her usual self, although Spawn doesn’t like her vote

Thinks that Caranlondien is not suspicious

Does not like Valier’s vote but thinks that she cannot tell much from it.

Post 128

Thinks that Lhuna is making sense, votes for Eonwe (but obviously, she has not dreamt of him as we know he’s not a wolf.

Post 129
Jokes about SamwiseGamgee making a wolfish slip-up

Post 132
Jokes around with Formen.

End of the day, my thoughts so far:

The seers did not find a wolf on Day 1. Spawn voted for a (now) known innocent and did not leave anything I could find as a ‘hint’ of someone being a wolf. It’s logical, after all, as odds were against the seers finding a wolf on their first dream. Also, I think Spawn was likely to dream of someone she’s suspected, so I will not comment on the “possible innocents” as she’s not likely to have dreamt of them (Lhuna will be an exception as Spawn’s vote for her needs to be explained one way or another)

For possible wolves:
Lailath
Kath


For possible innocents:
Valier
Cailin
Lhuna

Day 2
Post 151
(Goes through Anguirel’s posts, I won’t comment on that but on her thoughts about other villagers)

Thinks that we should not disregard our suspicions of Kath after the night’s death.

Mildly defends Glirdan

Post 164
Thinks that the “Lhuna issue” should be looked after more closely

Questions and accuses Lhuna quite strongly

Post 166
Analyzes Naria, Seems to think that Naria is innocent first, but then says that “a horrible thought just occurred her” and that Naria might not be as innocent as she thought.

Post 175
Explains Thinlomien that Naria did not slip up on something she said.

Post 193
Still argues that we should not get our minds off Kath

Defends Naria again against accusations of a slip up

Then she answers something Lhuna said, but I’m not sure what she means.

Post 199
Tells Eonwe to explain more her thought process

Wants to hear more from Naria

Post 207
Again comments that we should not get our sights off Kath

Post 212
Votes for Lhuna based on a comment made by her (Lhuna) and the arguments made by other villagers.

End of day

Ok, my thoughts…. I think that Spawn has dreamt of a wolf, but not the obvious one. In Day 1 it did not seem as if Spawn suspected Lhuna at all…. And why would she dream of her if she did not suspect her? She had voiced concerns about Kath and Lailath more loudly than the rest… and then, on day two we find that Spawn keeps on reminding us not to write off Kath as innocent just yet.

Call me crazy, but that all-but confirms my suspicions of Kath being a wolf. Think about it. Anguirel made a joking remark about Kath that was misinterpreted as a seer comment (aided by other things he said) and he was killed…. It’s only logical that a seer Spawn would be MUCH more careful. I think that she was hinting at what she knew in a way that would reveal itself if she died. Well, she’s dead now, and I think it’s time to read behind the lines.

Lhuna was not a likely dream suspect, and given that there are 4 wolves, there are still plenty of villagers and another seer, it’s (very) likely that Spawn did not want to risk voting for a wolf and blowing up her cover so soon… and thus she voted for her most likely to be a wolf unknown.

Now, I’m not saying that Lhuna is NOT a wolf for sure… all I’m saying is that Spawn probably did not dream of her on Night 2 and it sure looks as if she was pointing at Kath very subtly, yet very consistently.

Ok, that’s all I have for now…. I think that Kath is a wolf and I shall vote for her today. I ask of you fellow villagers, go through Spawns posts by yourself and tell me if I’m wrong…. I’m sure you will agree

P.S: That was not a seer hint or anything like that.... it was just the confindence that comes from a well done reasoning.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Farael

The seers did not find a wolf on Day 1. Spawn voted for a (now) known innocent and did not leave anything I could find as a ‘hint’ of someone being a wolf. It’s logical, after all, as odds were against the seers finding a wolf on their first dream. Also, I think Spawn was likely to dream of someone she’s suspected, so I will not comment on the “possible innocents” as she’s not likely to have dreamt of them (Lhuna will be an exception as Spawn’s vote for her needs to be explained one way or another)

Ok, my thoughts…. I think that Spawn has dreamt of a wolf, but not the obvious one. In Day 1 it did not seem as if Spawn suspected Lhuna at all…. And why would she dream of her if she did not suspect her? She had voiced concerns about Kath and Lailath more loudly than the rest… and then, on day two we find that Spawn keeps on reminding us not to write off Kath as innocent just yet.

Call me crazy, but that all-but confirms my suspicions of Kath being a wolf. Think about it. Anguirel made a joking remark about Kath that was misinterpreted as a seer comment (aided by other things he said) and he was killed…. It’s only logical that a seer Spawn would be MUCH more careful. I think that she was hinting at what she knew in a way that would reveal itself if she died. Well, she’s dead now, and I think it’s time to read behind the lines.

Maybe it was well done reasoning. But it was all based on your summaries of posts instead of quotes. How can we be sure you summarized correctly, or even with innocent intent? It looks more like a trumped up story than solid reasoning, as there are not real facts in your post.

And villagers, let's please stop casting votes based on what annoys us? Annoyances are highly subjective and tell us little about the suspected person, a lot more about ourselves. So Eonwe wasn't being helpful; he wasn't causing any real problems either. We should be more concerned about villagers that are casting suspicion where it ought not to rest than people who vote on a whim, or declare themselves werewolves. Such folks are distractors. As to Guy, his declaration that he is a werewolf is only one fact out of many facing us. Let's please not let it carry more wait, nor less, than it should.

[littlemanpoet]

Okay, I've scanned everything so far. Not read carefully, just scanned ... to get a general sense of the arguments.

On Farael: 2 possibilities occur to me:

1. He has picked his target and is going whole hog after that one person until that person's identity is known one way or the other. This would not be a surprise.

2. He could be a desperate lover, doing all he can to protect his wolvish love.

I suggest that we double lynch Lhuna and Farael today, and clear up this confusion.

[tar-ancalime]

from Guy: There are 8 men and 10 women. If we systematically lynch men, we get the following:

Day 3 - 6 men, 10 women.
Night 4 - 6, 9
Day 4 - 4, 9
Night 5 - 4, 8
Day 5 - 2, 8
Night 6 - 2, 7
Day 6 - 0, 7

This is the worst case scenario. However, I don't think it will be that bad.

This isn't the whole story. Your Day 6 should read: 0,6 because when we finally get the male Lover (assuming we get him last, worst-case scenario) the female Lover dies too.

That leaves 6 people. Real worst-case? Three innocents, three wolves. Game over.

I think you have an intriguing idea, but it's one that we can't let play out to this conclusion.

This is assuming that at least three wolves are women, which is unlikely, but if the wolves were chosen at random it's not out of the realm of possibility.

[tar-ancalime]

from Cailin:

I find it extremely likely the Seers chose to dream of Lhunardawen that Night and Spawn made it her objective to alert the village. Any other thoughts?

Interesting idea. Are you saying that the Seers decided spawn should "alert the village," even to the point of sacrificing herself? Because I agree with you that spawn's pursuit of Lhuna yesterday looks like a Seer in the know trying to persuade us. However, I'd discounted that out of hand because, well, it looks a little too much like a Seer in the know trying to persuade us. I would have imagined spawn to be more subtle than that. But there it is--spawn is dead, Lhuna is alive, we still have a Seer, and as for my previous post, I did say it was a crackpot theory. It may be that the simplest solution is the best. Lhuna? Care to convince us otherwise?

I still think there may be something, even a tiny nugget of something, in my crackpot theory--I really think the wolves (a) know who the Lover wolf is, and (b) think it's expedient at this point to keep the Lovers alive...for a while. They're in no danger yet, and as long as we villagers are talking about Lovers they've got conversations in which to hide.

[tar-ancalime]

from Farael:

Remember that there are two “seer/sheriff”s so we have four people dreamt of so far. Two on day 1 and two on day 2 (I think)

No, the Seers were in communication with each other, but they chose one person to dream about each Night. That means we don't have double the amount of dreams, but tthe dreams spawn already had are not lost with her death.

You are very sure that spawn did not dream of Lhuna. I'm not sure I follow your logic here--even if I concede the point that spawn thought Lhuna was innocent (which I'm not ready to do, in addition to the fact that we don't know what the other Seer thought at the time), it can be just as important for Seers to build up a list of proven innocents as to target wolves. We don't know what the Seers' strategy was, nor what it will be now that there is only one left.

[Farael]

Well Tar-a, I don't think it's logical to make a list of known innocents this early on the game.... those lists "make themselves" as the seers choose the wrong people to dream of. Why in Eru's name would they dream of someone they think innocent when they (obviously, as spawn did) had some suspects?

The logic is quite simple, actually. And the fact that the seers have only one dream makes it more likely. On Day 1 there should be plenty of suspicious people to dream of... why dream about someone that either of the seers thinks Innocent?

And remember, I'm saying that Spawn thought that Lhuna was innocent ON DAY 1... that changed on day 2, but it was too late for her dream anyway. Spawn did not mistrust Lhuna until the end of the day, which means (to me) that she was swayed during the day by the arguments made. And she decided to vote for Lhuna rather than Kath (whom she knew a wolf... or so my theory goes) because the wolves had already ridden themselves of someone who had voiced loud suspicions of Kath and it's too early to sacrifice a seer for a wolf. Thus, she hinted subtly that we should not forget Kath. When she said so, I thought that spawn was just sort of agreeing with me.... now I think that it was even more than that, she was saying that Kath is not innocent as we may think her to be.

I know I have a bit of a reputation for having crazy theories, but think about it.... Spawn did not suspect Lhuna until mid day 2.... and she has steadfastly suspected (and hinted that we should not think innocent) Kath.

[Farael]

Cross posted with Cailin:

Those two comments by Spawn were made on the same day!!! A seer would not change her views of a wolf she's going after mid-day. I'm not trying to say that Lhuna is not a wolf though and you might be on to something when you say that maybe both women are wolves... but I think that Spawn's change of mind during the day shows that she was going after a "wolfishly looking" unknown rather than a known wolf. There is no reason for a seer who has chosen to go all out against a wolf to change their views mid-day. If anything, it will make her accusations seem like a flip-flop.

[Cailín]

Farael... how do you explain this if Spawn did not dream of Lhuna:

Thinks that Lhuna is making sense,

Thinks that the “Lhuna issue” should be looked after more closely

Questions and accuses Lhuna quite strongly

You may have a point with regards to Kath... I don't know. However, Spawn was not the only Seer and it may be likely that her fellow Seer did find Lhuna's vote suspicious.

You managed to confuse me further Farael! Argh. Maybe Lhuna and Kath both are wolves, would that not be the easy solution? I shall have to consider this more, but I am hesitant to write my thoughts because I don't want to aid the wolves in finding the second Seer. Maybe I should stick to analysing voting patterns.