Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing… - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Shelob · 03-01-2006, 04:09 PM

(As compared to the other days this one has been rather {read: very} quiet. Only during the morning was there anything resembling the heated discussions of previous days.)

Farael: I fear I’ve done nothing but distract the village, if it helps in any way I volunteer myself to be today’s lynching candidate.
Saucepan Man: I’m not quite sure what to make of that…
Formendacil: No kidding, it makes me think that he’s innocent though…no, wait, he might be a wolf who wants us to think that he’s innocent…
Tar: Perhaps, but I’m more worried about Glirdan, he’s been too quiet for my liking.
Nilp: But other than that he’s not really that suspicious. Now you on the other hand, you’re very suspicious.

(Insert tumbleweed here.)

Aiwendil: So….any conclusions?
Mormegil: Not yet.
Kath: I think Tar’s a wolf. Let’s lynch her.

(The villagers gather around Tar, keeping slightly more distance from her than they have from their previous companions since they haven’t quite figured out that ‘ex’ means she no longer has leprosy)

Tar: I’m not a wolf, I’m telling you.
Formendacil: Please, this has been hard on us all. If it looks like a wolf, votes like a wolf and acts like a wolf, it’s a wolf. Even a fool knows that.

(They lynch Tar-Ancalime, the only thing unusual with the lynching is that Tar, upon reaching the steps to the gallows, ran through the village and into the Forest. The villagers chased her for some ways until, as she flitted in and out of their sight through the brances, they watched as an ancient tree suddenly swooped down and ate her. Other than that little incident they have lynched another innocent.)

-----
Living:
Saucepan Man
Farael
Mormegil
Aiwendil
Glirdan
Formendacil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Kath
Celuien

Dead:
Shelob (Mod)--Killed by wolves on NIGHT 1
Abercrombie (Mod)--Killed while Yeti-Spotting on NIGHT 1
Gil-Galad (Ordinary)--Lynched at the close of DAY 1
Holbytlass (True Seer)--Gloucester-ized and welled on NIGHT 2
Lhunardawen (Ordinary)--Drown’d a muddy death upon DAY 2
Anguirel (Ordinary)--Killed quite safely during NIGHT 3
Littlemanpoet (Ordinary)--Vanished during DAY 3
Garin (Ordinary)--Lynched at the end of an eventful DAY 3
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant (Ordinary)--Thus was the shepherd beaten from their side during NIGHT 4
Eomer of the Rohirrim (Werewolf)--Died without a friend, but plenty of fiends DAY 4.
Boromir88 (Ranger)--[I]Like Corey, burried under the contents of a Quarry during NIGHT 5[I]
Tar-Ancalime (Ordinary)--Made an Ex-ex-leper at the end of DAY 5

NIGHT 6, as usual...and I'm sorry about today's death, but I just really didn't have the energy to put into it.

Shelob · 03-02-2006, 04:08 PM

(The House of the town’s beekeeper. The bees know something is up but it hasn’t kept them from doing their normal bee thing. The villagers, similarly, know something is up and, similarly, must do their normal thing. Unfortunately in their case this isn’t going from flower to flower, it’s looking at the corpse.)

Farael: Great, the wolves killed Kath.
Voice from outside: (faintly) …no…
Nilp: I would have thought they’d kill Form, he is a known innocent after all.
Voice from outside: (fainter) …no…
Aiwendil: Does anyone else hear that? And where’s Morm?

(Aiwendil’s observations bring a harsh realization to the villagers, Mormegil isn’t actually with them and it sounds like someone else is dying. They exit the beekeeper’s house and follow the ever fainter ‘no’s to where Mormegil has been half heartedly hidden behind one of Kath’s hives.)

Celuien: Mormegil! Are you alright?
Formendacil: He’s got a dagger in his back, do you really think he’s ‘alright’?
Saucepan Man: Don’t crowed him, perhaps he saw something which could help us.
Glirdan: (who had helped Mormegil sit up somewhat) Well Morm, did you see anything, anything at all that we could use?

(Mormegil’s eyes aren’t focused, they aren’t even looking in the same direction. He’s clearly been lying there for a while and there’s just as clearly no chance he’ll be able to say more than a few syllables before giving into death.)

Mormegil: You two brutes.

(With that he dies. The villagers look at each other, it’s clear now that the wolves didn’t kill Kath, their hunter did. It’s just as clear that he had somehow recognized both his murderers amongst those still living, though with his eyes as unfocused as they had been.)

-----
Living:
Saucepan Man
Farael
Aiwendil
Glirdan
Formendacil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Celuien

Dead:
Shelob (Mod)--Killed by wolves on NIGHT 1
Abercrombie (Mod)--Killed while Yeti-Spotting on NIGHT 1
Gil-Galad (Ordinary)--Lynched at the close of DAY 1
Holbytlass (True Seer)--Gloucester-ized and welled on NIGHT 2
Lhunardawen (Ordinary)--Drown’d a muddy death upon DAY 2
Anguirel (Ordinary)--Killed quite safely during NIGHT 3
Littlemanpoet (Ordinary)--Vanished during DAY 3
Garin (Ordinary)--Lynched at the end of an eventful DAY 3
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant (Ordinary)--Thus was the shepherd beaten from their side during NIGHT 4
Eomer of the Rohirrim (Werewolf)--Died without a friend, but plenty of fiends DAY 4.
Boromir88 (Ranger)--Like Corey, burried under the contents of a Quarry during NIGHT 5
Tar-Ancalime (Ordinary)--Made an Ex-ex-leper at the end of DAY 5
Kath (Ordinary)--Killed by the Hunter during NIGHT 6
Mormegil (Hunter)--Stabbed in the back by wolves during NIGHT 6

DAY 6 begins, Discuss, Argue, Vote...

Formendacil · 03-02-2006, 04:18 PM

Oh crap!

We're down to four Ordos, me, and Two Werewolves...

We really shot ourselves in the foot with tar-Ancalime yesterday, and if we don't catch a Werewolf today...

So, we still have me, Nilp, and SPM off of yesterday's "Presumed Innocent" list. Which leaves, for the purposes of my suspicions:

Farael
Aiwendil
Glirdan
Celuien.

A one in two chance of nabbing a Werewolf, if I'm right about Nilp and SPM.

I'm really tempted to say Aiwendil. The other wolf I'm not so sure, but I really want to say Aiwendil.

Aiwendil · 03-02-2006, 04:59 PM

Well, things are looking fairly bleak.

Still, we've a chance. We still have Formendacil, our precious Fool, and a known innocent can be quite a valuable thing at this point in the game.

I'm still willing to consider Nilpaurion and SpM likely innocent, given their votes for Eomer.

Celuien I still think is likely innocent given Eomer's apparent deception of her late on DAY 4.

That leaves me with Farael and Glirdan. I wouldn't be surprised if these were our two wolves.

Formendacil wrote:

Quote:

I'm really tempted to say Aiwendil. The other wolf I'm not so sure, but I really want to say Aiwendil.

May I ask why, particularly? Not that I don't mind being wrongly lynched now and then, but at this point killing an innocent would practically doom the village.

I do understand, though, how my misguided defence of Eomer could be misconstrued as a wolvish tactic. On that point I can say little more than that I was wrong, though by DAY 4 I had come to think Eomer likely to be a wolf.

I do rather hope that the village is not as quiet as yesterDAY, though I have a suspicion it will be . . .

Celuien · 03-02-2006, 05:44 PM

I'm terribly sorry about yesterday - I intended to come back, talk some more, and vote yesterday, but I missed getting back to the village (read - my Internet access) in time.

It seems that few of us remain among the living. Of those of us left, I know I'm ordinary. We know Formendacil is innocent. I too have a hunch that SpM and Nilp are innocent. Leaving:

Farael
Aiwendil
Glirdan

I'm just about certain that two of those are the remaining wolves. Of those three, I'm least suspicious of Aiwendil. Unless I can be convinced otherwise, my vote will go to either Farael or Glirdy today.

More later...

**The Saucepan Man** · 03-02-2006, 07:30 PM

This is not good. Not in the least. If we make a mistake today, then tomorrow we will be down to three innocent villagers and two Wolves and staring death right in its big, toothy maw.

That means that we have some serious thinking to do, and fast. So it would be helpful if everyone could participate as fully as they are able. No excuses. No long periods of silence. No self-votes. Just full and frank discussion. Yesterday, it seemed at times that there were only three of us in this village, and one of them is now dead. That cannot happen again, or we might as well give up now. It is only by sharing all of our thoughts and opinions that we will have any hope of distinguishing those who are genuine in what they say from those who are dissembling.

Right. Lecture over. Let's get back to work. Here's yesterday's voting record:

1. Farael for Farael (Farael-1)
2. Tar-ancalime for Glirdan (Farael-1, Glirdan-1)
3. Nilp for tar-ancalime (Farael-1, Glirdan-1, tar-ancalime-1)
4. Aiwendil for Farael (Farael-2, Glirdan-1, tar-ancalime-1)
5. The Saucepan Man for tar-ancalime (Farael-2, Glirdan-1, tar-ancalime-2)
6. Formendacil for tar-ancalime (Farael-2, Glirdan-1, tar-ancalime-3)
7. Kath for tar-ancalime (Farael-2, Glirdan-1, tar-ancalime-4)
8. Mormegil for Farael (Farael-3, Glirdan-1, tar-ancalime-4)

Did not vote: Celuien, Glirdan

Of those still with us and not proven innocent, the only ones to vote for tar-ancalime were Nilp and me. Since I am innocent and I am still inclined to think that Nilp is (although that's a working assumption, not a belief), it would appear that no Wolves voted for her. That would make sense to me as village opinion was clearly turning against her as the day progressed and it would have been dangerous for a Wolf to be caught there.

Farael voted for himself so, if it was a Wolfish tactic, it paid off. As matters stand, I think that it probably was. And if Farael is a Wolf, then I strongly doubt that Aiwendil is. Quite apart from Farael's campaign against him, I doubt that a Wolf would have voted for a fellow Wolf who had voted for himself to save himself. But Aiwendil is most certainly not off the hook at this stage.

That leaves the two non-voters. Both, I think, have provided reasons for their no-votes. But that does not mean that they are not Wolves. In fact, I think it highly likely that at least one of them is a Wolf, most likely Glirdan. Although I am beginning to wonder whether that exchange between Eomer and Celuien at the end of Day 4 may have been play-acting after all.

I am therefore fairly confident that our remaining two Wolves are to be found in the following group:

Farael
Aiwendil
Glirdan
Celuien

And right now, Farael and Glirdan are looking the most likely candidates to me.

Celuien · 03-02-2006, 08:00 PM

Playing the numbers game...

It looks like everyone is agreeing that the last two wolves are to be found in the group of Farael, Aiwendil, Glirdan or me.

Farael and Aiwendil are tied to each other through their early sparring, by virtue of which I think it's unlikely that they are both wolves. But, if that short list is correct, it's a 100% chance that one of them is lupine (since I know that I'm not).

Now, of the two, Aiwendil looks the less suspicious to me. He's been analytical. Right now, the main point against him is defense of Wereomer. A charge of which I am also guilty. Having fallen victim to Wereomer's tricks, I can easily see where others could have been fooled. Though I can also see Nilp's point. Though I can think of another reason for morm to have been attacked last night: a Wolfarael might have picked morm to look innocent, saying that a wolf team wouldn't use the same frame-up bluff twice, then taken the hunter by accident. Morm also somewhat suspected both Aiwendil and me. Either a wolvish Farael or Glirdy could have been trying to set up an innocent one of us.

Speaking of Farael, he also looks even odder after his self-vote, particularly in light of elempi's self-vote. Once it was used by a known innocent, a wolvish Farael might have used it as cover, thinking that by doing the same thing as a known innocent, he would also appear genuine by association.

What to do today? I'm pretty confident of that short list's being correct, based on discussion given over the past couple of days. Given the Aiwendil/Farael uncertainty, Glirdan might be the best choice for today, since I'm not totally sure of which is the wolf.

Unless SpM or Nilp have tricked me. In which case you deserve to win.

Farael · 03-02-2006, 08:46 PM

I think I was misunderstood yesterDAy. I wanted 'out' not because things were 'looking bleak' but because I have no credibility left. What ever I say, it could be just shrugged off as "more of Farael's nonesense". Now it's too late, as it was mentioned before, that killing the wrong person will leave us with only one innocent above certain death.

Given the need to discard at least SOME suspects, I will write off SPM and Nilp for their vote against Eomer. Formen is also innocent, our lovely village fool. That leaves us with Aiwendil and the two non-voters. I will go through them in alphabetical order

Aiwendil:
Day# Voted For Innocent/Wolf/Unknown Lynched that day?
1 tar-a Innocent No
2 Garin Innocent No
3 Garin Innocent Yes
4 tar-a Innocent No
Note here that it was the day we lynched Eomer.
5 Farael Unknown No
I concede that, while I know I'm innocent, you all do not.

Now, one of the main points against me is that I have limited the people I have voted for and thus I'm avoiding leaving a voting record. Well, Aiwendil has voted for three people, two of them the most popular to be lynched and yet yesterDay, when tar-a seemed to be the one going to the gallows, he changed his mind and voted for me. I can see why, but he also avoided voting for someone who would soon be revealed a known innocent. Don't be fooled by my three votes against Tar-a's four, as one of the three was by myself. All in all, only two villagers thought me suspicious enough to vote for me. One was Morm, our hunter... the other might have been trying to avoid voting for someone who would be revealed a known innocent after that night.

He has played an extremely cautious game, and it has worked out for him.

Celuien
Day# Voted For Innocent/Wolf/Unknown Lynched that day?
1 Gil Innocent Yes
2 Garin Innocent No
3 Garin Innocent Yes
4 Tar-a Innocent No
Now it gets fishy... Eomer MIGHT have fooled her... but how about two smart wolves, who happened to be around at the same time trying to flush out a gifted? any way, it is very convenient and... did you note that it was actually Celuien who brought up the giftedness? post 396... Eomer had not insinuated anything about being gifted in his last posts, besides telling Formen that if the remaining voters voted for tar-a it would have been marvelous.... the more I look at it, the less it seems to me it was an accident and the more it was some quick thinking by the wolves. She didn't vote in day 5

Glirdan:
Day# Voted For Innocent/Wolf/Unknown Lynched that day?
1 Gil Innocent Yes
2 Lhuna Innocent Yes
3 LMP Innocent Sort of, but he was the
main suspect until then
4 No vote, he declares he will be away for three days
5 No vote

I have almost nothing to go on with for Glirdan. The votes he did cast were all for innocents on the day of their lynching (or sudden dissapearing) but honestly, I have nothing to work with.

My thoughts
Aiwendil's voting pattern is just slightly better than mine, Glirdan's is outright awful when he did vote and Celuien's is no better. There are two things that I find interesting. First of all, I no longer think that Celuien was tricked by Eomer. Second, look at days 2 3 and 4 for both Aiwendil and Celuien.... same votes. On day 3, those two votes were the difference between Eomer and Garin. It's also very suspicious that on day 4 they both voted for Tar-a which was the second-most likely individual to be lynched.

While working on this post there were several replies.... two things I'd like to mention on.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SPM

So, assuming that the Wolves did think mormegil to be the Hunter, Glirdan and Celuien, if Wolves, were the least likely to risk death themselves by targeting him, while Farael and Aiwendil, if Wolves, would have been taking a risk by attacking him

Actually, I don't think that Morm was really suspicious of Aiwendil by the end of the day. And as a matter of fact, his last comment hints heavily whom he would be after should he get murdered that night. I think Aiwendil could have still taken the chance.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

Anyway, I think that our best bets for toDAY are Farael and Glirdan. And I admit that if I were not myself, I'd probably add Aiwendil to that list. I'd be very surprised if neither Farael nor Glirdan is a wolf; and I wouldn't be surprised if both were. It also seems conceivable to me, if unlikely, that one from among Celuien, Nilp, and SpM is a wolf.

Add our only known innocent to the list and you will have all the villagers remaining besides himself

come on, I'm no longer 'having fun' by going after Aiwendil... does no-one else see this as playing way too safe? he is mentioning everyone, so if we get a wolf toDay he can say "I somewhat suspected him" and if we get an innocent he can say "Well, I didn't really suspect him the most"

Right now, Celuien and Aiwendil are looking pretty lynchable.... specially on account of their common votes on days two three and four (mostly three and four), Celuien's "mistake" and Aiwendil's extremely safe aproach

Nilpaurion Felagund · 03-02-2006, 07:18 PM

Quote:

I'm really tempted to say Aiwendil. The other wolf I'm not so sure, but I really want to say Aiwendil. (Form)

I don't know . . . I have a hunch that one of the last Werewolves is very smart. Very crafty. Why risk a lot and go for Boromir NIGHT 5 and morm NIGHT 6, when they could have killed the known innocent Foolmendacil (

) instead? Someone bothered to sniff out the last true Gifteds.

For me it points to Aiwendil, unless I'm totally wrong about SpM.

For the last Werewolf, I'd say one of the quiet ones.

I think you're innocent now, vzv, Celuien. (I hope, oh dear, I hope I'm right about you.)

03-01-2006, 04:09 PM	#1
Shelob Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: At the abysmal Abyss Mall. Posts: 276	The wood has come against her. (As compared to the other days this one has been rather {read: very} quiet. Only during the morning was there anything resembling the heated discussions of previous days.) Farael: I fear I’ve done nothing but distract the village, if it helps in any way I volunteer myself to be today’s lynching candidate. Saucepan Man: I’m not quite sure what to make of that… Formendacil: No kidding, it makes me think that he’s innocent though…no, wait, he might be a wolf who wants us to think that he’s innocent… Tar: Perhaps, but I’m more worried about Glirdan, he’s been too quiet for my liking. Nilp: But other than that he’s not really that suspicious. Now you on the other hand, you’re very suspicious. (Insert tumbleweed here.) Aiwendil: So….any conclusions? Mormegil: Not yet. Kath: I think Tar’s a wolf. Let’s lynch her. (The villagers gather around Tar, keeping slightly more distance from her than they have from their previous companions since they haven’t quite figured out that ‘ex’ means she no longer has leprosy) Tar: I’m not a wolf, I’m telling you. Formendacil: Please, this has been hard on us all. If it looks like a wolf, votes like a wolf and acts like a wolf, it’s a wolf. Even a fool knows that. (They lynch Tar-Ancalime, the only thing unusual with the lynching is that Tar, upon reaching the steps to the gallows, ran through the village and into the Forest. The villagers chased her for some ways until, as she flitted in and out of their sight through the brances, they watched as an ancient tree suddenly swooped down and ate her. Other than that little incident they have lynched another innocent.) ----- Living: Saucepan Man Farael Mormegil Aiwendil Glirdan Formendacil Nilpaurion Felagund Kath Celuien Dead: Shelob (Mod)--Killed by wolves on NIGHT 1 Abercrombie (Mod)--Killed while Yeti-Spotting on NIGHT 1 Gil-Galad (Ordinary)--Lynched at the close of DAY 1 Holbytlass (True Seer)--Gloucester-ized and welled on NIGHT 2 Lhunardawen (Ordinary)--Drown’d a muddy death upon DAY 2 Anguirel (Ordinary)--Killed quite safely during NIGHT 3 Littlemanpoet (Ordinary)--Vanished during DAY 3 Garin (Ordinary)--Lynched at the end of an eventful DAY 3 Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant (Ordinary)--Thus was the shepherd beaten from their side during NIGHT 4 Eomer of the Rohirrim (Werewolf)--Died without a friend, but plenty of fiends DAY 4. Boromir88 (Ranger)--[I]Like Corey, burried under the contents of a Quarry during NIGHT 5[I] Tar-Ancalime (Ordinary)--Made an Ex-ex-leper at the end of DAY 5 NIGHT 6, as usual...and I'm sorry about today's death, but I just really didn't have the energy to put into it. __________________ A signature always reveals a man's character - and sometimes even his name ~Evan Esar. Pan for Everyone!

03-02-2006, 04:08 PM	#2
Shelob Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: At the abysmal Abyss Mall. Posts: 276	For I myself will hunt this wolf to death (The House of the town’s beekeeper. The bees know something is up but it hasn’t kept them from doing their normal bee thing. The villagers, similarly, know something is up and, similarly, must do their normal thing. Unfortunately in their case this isn’t going from flower to flower, it’s looking at the corpse.) Farael: Great, the wolves killed Kath. Voice from outside: (faintly) …no… Nilp: I would have thought they’d kill Form, he is a known innocent after all. Voice from outside: (fainter) …no… Aiwendil: Does anyone else hear that? And where’s Morm? (Aiwendil’s observations bring a harsh realization to the villagers, Mormegil isn’t actually with them and it sounds like someone else is dying. They exit the beekeeper’s house and follow the ever fainter ‘no’s to where Mormegil has been half heartedly hidden behind one of Kath’s hives.) Celuien: Mormegil! Are you alright? Formendacil: He’s got a dagger in his back, do you really think he’s ‘alright’? Saucepan Man: Don’t crowed him, perhaps he saw something which could help us. Glirdan: (who had helped Mormegil sit up somewhat) Well Morm, did you see anything, anything at all that we could use? (Mormegil’s eyes aren’t focused, they aren’t even looking in the same direction. He’s clearly been lying there for a while and there’s just as clearly no chance he’ll be able to say more than a few syllables before giving into death.) Mormegil: You two brutes. (With that he dies. The villagers look at each other, it’s clear now that the wolves didn’t kill Kath, their hunter did. It’s just as clear that he had somehow recognized both his murderers amongst those still living, though with his eyes as unfocused as they had been.) ----- Living: Saucepan Man Farael Aiwendil Glirdan Formendacil Nilpaurion Felagund Celuien Dead: Shelob (Mod)--Killed by wolves on NIGHT 1 Abercrombie (Mod)--Killed while Yeti-Spotting on NIGHT 1 Gil-Galad (Ordinary)--Lynched at the close of DAY 1 Holbytlass (True Seer)--Gloucester-ized and welled on NIGHT 2 Lhunardawen (Ordinary)--Drown’d a muddy death upon DAY 2 Anguirel (Ordinary)--Killed quite safely during NIGHT 3 Littlemanpoet (Ordinary)--Vanished during DAY 3 Garin (Ordinary)--Lynched at the end of an eventful DAY 3 Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant (Ordinary)--Thus was the shepherd beaten from their side during NIGHT 4 Eomer of the Rohirrim (Werewolf)--Died without a friend, but plenty of fiends DAY 4. Boromir88 (Ranger)--Like Corey, burried under the contents of a Quarry during NIGHT 5 Tar-Ancalime (Ordinary)--Made an Ex-ex-leper at the end of DAY 5 Kath (Ordinary)--Killed by the Hunter during NIGHT 6 Mormegil (Hunter)--Stabbed in the back by wolves during NIGHT 6 DAY 6 begins, Discuss, Argue, Vote... __________________ A signature always reveals a man's character - and sometimes even his name ~Evan Esar. Pan for Everyone! Last edited by Shelob; 03-02-2006 at 06:26 PM. Reason: I noticed a format tag was wrong, it was going to annoy me if I left it.

03-02-2006, 04:18 PM	#3
Formendacil Dead Serious Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Perched on Thangorodrim's towers. Posts: 3,328	Oh crap! We're down to four Ordos, me, and Two Werewolves... We really shot ourselves in the foot with tar-Ancalime yesterday, and if we don't catch a Werewolf today... So, we still have me, Nilp, and SPM off of yesterday's "Presumed Innocent" list. Which leaves, for the purposes of my suspicions: Farael Aiwendil Glirdan Celuien. A one in two chance of nabbing a Werewolf, if I'm right about Nilp and SPM. I'm really tempted to say Aiwendil. The other wolf I'm not so sure, but I really want to say Aiwendil. __________________ I prefer history, true or feigned.

03-02-2006, 05:44 PM	#5
Celuien Riveting Ribbiter Join Date: May 2005 Location: Assigned to Mordor Posts: 1,767	I'm terribly sorry about yesterday - I intended to come back, talk some more, and vote yesterday, but I missed getting back to the village (read - my Internet access) in time. It seems that few of us remain among the living. Of those of us left, I know I'm ordinary. We know Formendacil is innocent. I too have a hunch that SpM and Nilp are innocent. Leaving: Farael Aiwendil Glirdan I'm just about certain that two of those are the remaining wolves. Of those three, I'm least suspicious of Aiwendil. Unless I can be convinced otherwise, my vote will go to either Farael or Glirdy today. More later... __________________ People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect. But actually, from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint, it's more like a big ball of wibbly-wobbly, timey-wimey... stuff.

03-02-2006, 07:30 PM	#6
The Saucepan Man Corpus Cacophonous Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: A green and pleasant land Posts: 8,390	This is not good. Not in the least. If we make a mistake today, then tomorrow we will be down to three innocent villagers and two Wolves and staring death right in its big, toothy maw. That means that we have some serious thinking to do, and fast. So it would be helpful if everyone could participate as fully as they are able. No excuses. No long periods of silence. No self-votes. Just full and frank discussion. Yesterday, it seemed at times that there were only three of us in this village, and one of them is now dead. That cannot happen again, or we might as well give up now. It is only by sharing all of our thoughts and opinions that we will have any hope of distinguishing those who are genuine in what they say from those who are dissembling. Right. Lecture over. Let's get back to work. Here's yesterday's voting record: 1. Farael for Farael (Farael-1) 2. Tar-ancalime for Glirdan (Farael-1, Glirdan-1) 3. Nilp for tar-ancalime (Farael-1, Glirdan-1, tar-ancalime-1) 4. Aiwendil for Farael (Farael-2, Glirdan-1, tar-ancalime-1) 5. The Saucepan Man for tar-ancalime (Farael-2, Glirdan-1, tar-ancalime-2) 6. Formendacil for tar-ancalime (Farael-2, Glirdan-1, tar-ancalime-3) 7. Kath for tar-ancalime (Farael-2, Glirdan-1, tar-ancalime-4) 8. Mormegil for Farael (Farael-3, Glirdan-1, tar-ancalime-4) Did not vote: Celuien, Glirdan Of those still with us and not proven innocent, the only ones to vote for tar-ancalime were Nilp and me. Since I am innocent and I am still inclined to think that Nilp is (although that's a working assumption, not a belief), it would appear that no Wolves voted for her. That would make sense to me as village opinion was clearly turning against her as the day progressed and it would have been dangerous for a Wolf to be caught there. Farael voted for himself so, if it was a Wolfish tactic, it paid off. As matters stand, I think that it probably was. And if Farael is a Wolf, then I strongly doubt that Aiwendil is. Quite apart from Farael's campaign against him, I doubt that a Wolf would have voted for a fellow Wolf who had voted for himself to save himself. But Aiwendil is most certainly not off the hook at this stage. That leaves the two non-voters. Both, I think, have provided reasons for their no-votes. But that does not mean that they are not Wolves. In fact, I think it highly likely that at least one of them is a Wolf, most likely Glirdan. Although I am beginning to wonder whether that exchange between Eomer and Celuien at the end of Day 4 may have been play-acting after all. I am therefore fairly confident that our remaining two Wolves are to be found in the following group: Farael Aiwendil Glirdan Celuien And right now, Farael and Glirdan are looking the most likely candidates to me. __________________ Do you mind? I'm busy doing the fishstick. It's a very delicate state of mind!

03-02-2006, 08:00 PM	#7
Celuien Riveting Ribbiter Join Date: May 2005 Location: Assigned to Mordor Posts: 1,767	Playing the numbers game... It looks like everyone is agreeing that the last two wolves are to be found in the group of Farael, Aiwendil, Glirdan or me. Farael and Aiwendil are tied to each other through their early sparring, by virtue of which I think it's unlikely that they are both wolves. But, if that short list is correct, it's a 100% chance that one of them is lupine (since I know that I'm not). Now, of the two, Aiwendil looks the less suspicious to me. He's been analytical. Right now, the main point against him is defense of Wereomer. A charge of which I am also guilty. Having fallen victim to Wereomer's tricks, I can easily see where others could have been fooled. Though I can also see Nilp's point. Though I can think of another reason for morm to have been attacked last night: a Wolfarael might have picked morm to look innocent, saying that a wolf team wouldn't use the same frame-up bluff twice, then taken the hunter by accident. Morm also somewhat suspected both Aiwendil and me. Either a wolvish Farael or Glirdy could have been trying to set up an innocent one of us. Speaking of Farael, he also looks even odder after his self-vote, particularly in light of elempi's self-vote. Once it was used by a known innocent, a wolvish Farael might have used it as cover, thinking that by doing the same thing as a known innocent, he would also appear genuine by association. What to do today? I'm pretty confident of that short list's being correct, based on discussion given over the past couple of days. Given the Aiwendil/Farael uncertainty, Glirdan might be the best choice for today, since I'm not totally sure of which is the wolf. Unless SpM or Nilp have tricked me. In which case you deserve to win. __________________ People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect. But actually, from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint, it's more like a big ball of wibbly-wobbly, timey-wimey... stuff.