Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

[Aiwendil]

All right, as I hoped, I've got some time to analyse non-Eomer voters.

SPM has provided what look to me like reasonable analyses of Farael, Tar, and Kath, so I'm going to look at Glirdan first and see if I have time to do more.

[Aiwendil]

Glirdan
DAY 1: Proposes that we get rid of the quiet ones (post 4). I find this a bit odd, considering that Glirdan has been fairly quiet. But I don't think that this particularly suggests wolvishness. Then he votes for Gil. He was the first to do so, and as random DAY 1 votes go, Gil was a pretty safe one. On the other hand, it's quite possible that he's an innocent who really did think that eliminating the quiet/unhelpful villagers first was the best strategy. So I don't see anything particularly suspicious in his vote - at least, I don't think it's as suspicious as the later votes for Gil.

DAY 2: Laments the Seer's death and says that his vote for Gil-Galad was random. Then he makes his first really substantial post of the game (# 130). He says that his suggestion that we get rid of the quiet ones was a "complete ploy" to start discussion. All right, but if so, why did he follow through on it and vote for Gil? Then he says we should look at those who reacted strongly to the suggestion, Lhuna in particular. He quotes LMP's reaction, but doesn't say what this makes him think of LMP.

Then he moves on to answer my questions from DAY 1. He says that voting records are important but also:

As for the tone of the post, well, it all depends on how you yourself take the posts. Because one person could take something that was supposed to be humourous and turn into an accusation which could lead to trouble for both people.

He thinks the question about the Gifteds' strategy "isn't as bright as the previous one", though I don't really understand his reasoning for this:

because that's the intention of not only the Gifteds, but the Wolves as well

He says we should probably still spread the votes slightly.

In post 132 he continues to suspect Lhuna. Then he asks "why on earth" Boromir voted for Gil-Galad, claiming that:

Everyone knows fully well that if it comes down to a tie, the person to reach that number of votes first would be lynched. Your vote sealed Gil's fate. So, that brings me to this: why did you not vote for the person you suspected??

Now, this is false. Several people (including me) had forgotten that with the rule against double lynches, Gil-Galad would have been lynched even in the case of a tie. Further, and for precisely that reason, Boromir did not seal Gil-Galad's fate; Gil would have been lynched whatever Boromir's vote was. It strikes me that this could be a wolvish attempt to start building a case against Boromir, particularly given that Boromir had received four votes on DAY 1 and thus seemed likely to be a lynch-candidate.

Glirdan then voted for Lhuna. His motivation seems to have been nothing more than her reaction to his "lynch the quiet ones" suggestion. Not the best evidence, I think, but nonetheless it's something I could very well see an innocent doing. He was the first to vote for Lhuna, but he knew that there was already some suspicion of her. Could be an attempt to start a bandwagon, but again it's the later votes I tend to suspect more.

It is interesting, though, that Glirdan was the first to vote on both DAYS 1 and 2 and with those two vote he started the campaigns against both Gil and Lhuna.

DAY 3: Says that the reason he answered my questions on DAY 2 instead of DAY 1 was that he had little time. He's confused by LMP's self-vote. Then he says that if LMP wants out, he'll help; he votes for LMP. As others have noted, this looks like a very likely move for a wolf. After LMP withdraws, he does not re-vote. Again, looks like a good move for a wolf.

DAY 4: No appearance at all.

Conclusion: He doesn't look incredibly suspicious to me, but he's certainly worrying me. His votes have all been for innocents who died that DAY. Too obvious for a wolf? Maybe. But somehow he's avoided much suspicion for most of the game.

One thing that really does worry me about him is the way he suggested we lynch the quiet ones and then explained the next DAY that it was a "ploy". This looks suspicious to me in the same way that Tar's DAY 1 attack on Spawn and subsequent backing off looks suspicious.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well I am glad that I am not the only one here, but it still seems rather quiet to me. Perhaps the Wolves are avoiding saying anything which might incriminate themselves or each other.

My thoughts on Aiwendil’s contributions. Again, I have addressed only those points which stood out to me one way or the other.

Day 1

His first contribution invited discussion of possible villager strategy (#7). At the time, this struck me as sensible as it is good to have something to discuss on Day 1 other than random accusations and counter-accusations. However, it did kick off all that Seer talk, and so it is possible that it was intended to divert the village into meaningless discussion or perhaps even flush out the True Seer.

Day 2

On Day 2, as on Day 1, his suspicions were mainly directed towards tar-ancalime but, having reviewed her posts, I can understand why.

He was attacked strongly by Farael (again, as on Day 1), but his response looks reasonable to me, if a little bewildered (#187).

Day 3

On Day 3, Aiwendil began to outline strong suspicions of littlemanpoet (starting with #228). Now, quite a few of us were suspicious of lmp at that point but, as I have said, I do suspect that the Wolves had targeted lmp as a likely candidate for the noose that Day, so that could point towards Aiwendil. However, it could also point towards Glirdan, tar-ancalime Farael and Eomer, the last of whom we know was a Wolf.

In his analysis of the villagers, Eomer said that he was giving Aiwendil a “free ride” (#300). Would he say that about a fellow Wolf? Possibly, though it would seem risky given the suspicion surrounding him at the time.

Aiwendil commented that Eomer’s “shrill” defence looked more innocent than Wolfish and (following lmp’s departure) voted for Garin to put him level on votes with Eomer (#316). This does look suspicious, but would be a dangerous move for a Wolf at that time. It was quite possible that Eomer would be lynched.

Day 4

Aiwendil started out by saying that he was inclined to Eomer’s innocence (#351). I am rather doubtful that a Wolfish Aiwendil would have defended Eomer-Wolf in the circumstances prevailing at the time. Eomer was a strong candidate to be lynched. It is possible, though, that it was a double-bluff. He did express stronger suspicions of Eomer as the Day progressed.

I was uncomfortable about Aiwendil’s suggestion that we should lynch either Eomer or tar and then, if they turned out a Wolf, lynch the other, and also with his suggestion that we should lynch morm if either turned out innocent (#372). I can see the sense in what he was saying, but it seems rather calculating to me.

He voted for tar-ancalime, to put her level on votes with Eomer (#384). Might be regarded as suspicious, but, as with Kath, that depends to an extent upon whether tar is a Wolf or not.

The most striking thing from my review of Aiwendil’s posts is how little there is that strikes me, given that he has been one of the more vocal villagers. That might indicate that he is a Wolf trying to play it safe, or it might simply indicate that he is a helpful innocent. What there is may suggest a possible connection with Eomer, but I wonder whether a Wolf would have allowed himself to become connected with another Wolf in that way. It would run counter to the strategy of “playing it safe”, which looks to have been Aiwendil's approach if he is a Wolf.

Still, there are some grounds for suspicion there.

I’d like to take a look at Glirdan and Celuien, but I am not sure how much time I will have to do so. I am already neglecting my dignatorial duties.

[Aiwendil]

Celuien

DAY 1: Her first post is ordinary DAY 1 nonsense. In post 66, she says she doesn't find Glirdan suspicious, despite his early vote. She finds Tar's shift from suspecting Spawn to voting for Eomer strange. In post 70, she says she doesn't think the False Seer will do much harm, though she does worry a little bit about a wolf impersonating the False Seer. Now, as I've said before, I don't think that the much-maligned DAY 1 "seer talk" was evil or wicked, so these comments look innocent to me. She then comments on Farael's attack on me, disagreeing with his analysis but also saying that his attack makes him look innocent. At the time, I agreed that it did. Now I'm not so sure, though. One could imagine that Farael and Celuien are both wolves and that this was Celuien's way of backing up Farael without being too obvious. Post 91 is more speculation about a wolvish impersonation of the False Seer. Doesn't really change my opinion of her either way.

Then she votes for Gil, putting him at four and thereby ensuring his death. She says this is because she doesn't have much to go on. Of course, no one has much to go on on DAY 1; but obviously Celuien realized that Gil was a clear favorite to be lynched and that her vote could well seal his fate. Could very well be a wolf jumping on the bandwagon.

DAY 2: Says she didn't suspect Holbytlass was gifted. Thinks her death was an unlucky accident. Looks over her posts and doesn't find anything to indicate a Seer; thinks her defense of mormegil was too light to indicate a dream. Says the False Seer should stay hidden until a known innocent would be more useful. This looks to me like a sensible and innocent suggestion.

Later, she takes a look at Lhunardawen and LMP, the two top suspects for the DAY. She seems to conclude that the suspicions of Lhuna are mostly unfounded, though her response to Glirdan's suggestion was strange, and that LMP's vote for Boromir looked very odd, but that she thinks a wolvish LMP would not be so obvious. Defends her re-entering the Seer discussion on DAY 1 against SpM's query.

In post 163, she suddenly picks up on a comment by Garin and accuses him of having "too much sympathy for the furry type". She doesn't feel comfortable with voting for LMP, apparently due to his spirited defence. Also says that Lhuna and Tar do not look wolvish to her. Still thinks that Farael, SpM, and I are innocent, and is willing to consider Boromir innocent for the moment. Votes for Garin. Well, Garin looked suspicious to me too at the time, though it is noteworthy that Celuien hadn't voiced any suspicion of him until that moment. Hers was the first vote for Garin, so it doesn't come across as a wolf jumping on an opportunity.

DAY 3: Gives thoughts on each villager. Her comment on Eomer is:

I can see why he looks suspicious, but there’s not really enough for me to go on to vote for him. Will watch.

That looks a bit like a wolf hesitating between supporting her fellow and distancing herself from him.

She votes for Garin again, and again she's the first to do so. Essentially the same as what she did on DAY 2.

DAY 4: Thinks Spawn's death looks like a deliberate framing of Eomer. Doesn't think a wolvish Eomer would do that. But also acknowledges that it's a possible double-bluff and thus doesn't discount Eomer from consideration. Again, this looks a lot like a wolf trying to have it both ways in talking about a fellow wolf.

In post 348, she names her suspects as Farael, Glirdan, Formendacil, Nilpaurion, Eomer, and Kath. Thinks that if Eomer is a wolf, then Farael is probably not. I disagree with this, since Farael didn't start to attack Eomer until the latter looked likely to be lynched. Perhaps the trio is Eomer, Farael, and Celuien, and she was trying to lay the groundwork for a defence of Farael. She still can't make up her mind about Eomer.

In post 366, she says she believes Formendacil's declaration that he is the False Seer. She now says that she suspects Farael more than Nilpaurion. She will probably not vote for Eomer unless something changes.

And late in the DAY we have the much-discussed Eomer as a Ranger bluff, which Celuien apparently falls for, voting for Tar.

There's certainly a fair amount to suspect here. But the Eomer bluff yesterDAY really leads me to think that she's innocent. Would the wolves have planned something like that so far in advance? Could they pull it off so well without being able to communicate privately? I'm inclined to think they couldn't.

So I'm inclined to think Celuien is probably innocent, at the moment, if only for that reason.

[The Saucepan Man]

*The Viscount Kettle watches a clump of tumbleweed drift slowly through Eaumor*

Anyone else actually interested in finding these Wolves?

Aiwendil has analysed Glirdan, but I also wanted to do so myself. Some of my thoughts are similar to his, but not all.

Day 1

Originally Posted by Glirdan @ #4

Now, I must say that we come up with a strategy and I have one already. It's simple: we get rid of the quiet people. ( ). They cannot be trusted.

Our one dead Wolf was a noisy one and I suspect that at least one of the remaining two has been quite vocal too. That makes Glirdan’s apparently “jokey” suggestion to kill the quiet ones interesting, as it may have been a clumsy attempt to divert the village’s gaze from his friends. Then again, Glirdan has been very quiet himself for most of our time here. Not sure what to make of his suggestion to lynch the quiet ones in light of that. The likeliest explanation, I suppose, is that he did indeed say it simply to provoke a reaction, as he later claimed.

He voted early for Gil-Galad on Day 1 (#15). I have said earlier why this inclined me to think him probably innocent. It is possible, however, that a Wolfish Glirdan voted for Gil to try to kick off a Gil bandwagon, the Wolves having identified him as an potential Day 1 target for lynching.

Eomer defended Glirdan early on, when it looked possible that Glirdan might be lynched:

Originally Posted by Eomer @ #59

We have to remember that Glirdan had to vote early. I must get that in as it looks like I shall also have to vote early. My guess is that he chose to vote for Gil because Gil is notoriously quiet and hard to decipher anyway ... It might be a tremendous place for Glirdan to hide (the very first vote) but I am definitely leaning towards Glirdan's innocence; ...

Day 2

He voted early again on Day 2, this time for Lhuna. This was after he had made a quite a strong case against her, based mainly on her reaction to his suggestion to lynch the quiet ones (which I must admit made me suspicious of her at the time) and for her vote for him (#130, #132, #147). Again, I had thought it spoke in favour of his innocence, but now I am wondering whether the Wolves hd targetted Lhuna as a possible Day 2’s lynch victim. Eomer voted for her too, but would two Wolves be caught in a lynch mob?

Days 3 and 4

Other than the withdrawn vote for littlemanpoet on Day 3 (#280), he has not voted (and hardly contributed) since.

In his analysis on Day 3, Eomer said that he was inclined to trust Glirdan (#300). That could speak in Glirdan’s favour, as I suspect that Eomer would have avoided associating himself with a fellow Wolf at that time.

My conclusion on Glirdan is much the same as Aiwendil's. He doesn’t look particularly suspicious, but there are some things there which might suggest Wolfishness. There are others looking far more lycanthropic to me, though.

Edit: Cross-posted with Aiwendil, hence the tumbleweed.

[Aiwendil]

Well, I've got to go (cook business). I'm in something of a quandry regarding whom to vote for.

Tar and Farael both still look very suspicious to me. But Eomer's apparent attempt to save himself by getting Tar lynched has really shaken my confidence in her guilt. Farael's self-vote has also made me wonder about him.

I really wish that there were more activity toDAY. We have little more to go on now than we did at the beginning of the DAY.

All right, I guess I'll vote for:

++Farael

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

I really wish that there were more activity toDAY.

You are not alone in that. I too must vote soon and would have preferred to have the benefit of others' thoughts before doing so.

I know it duplicates some of what Aiwendil did, but I did much if the leg-work while reviewing the others, so here are my thoughts on the remaining non-Eomer voter from yesterday, Celuien.

Day 1

I have already commented a few times on her attempt to divert attention away from herself when accused (#23). She was the only one to react in such a way to morm’s random accusations. I now tend to think that it was just part of the general Day 1 discourse, though.

She got involved in the Seer talk on Day 1 (#70 and #91), but doesn’t look particularly suspicious for it.

Voted for an innocent Gil-Galad on Day 1, citing Kath’s reasoning (#93). It might be seen as Wolfish to rely on another villager’s reasoning when casting a vote. But this looks to me the least likely of the Gil votes to have been cast by a Wolf.

Day 2

Voted for Garin, but I am not sure that tells us much. Nothing else really stands out about her from Day 2.

Day 3

In his villager analysis (#300), Eomer expressed surprise that she was under so much suspicion. I am not sure that she was at the time and, in those circumstances, I doubt Eomer would have said this about a fellow Wolf as it would only draw unnecessary attention to her (although see comment on Eomer’s post #365 below).

In her own analysis on Day 3 (#303), she was rather non-committal, except with regard to Garin, whom she voted for, giving him one vote. Of all the votes for Garin that day, it looks the least suspicious to me.

Day 4

Celuien thought it more likely that spawn’s death was intended to set Eomer up, but she said that she was not prepared to discount him (#335). Hedging her bets or innocent uncertainty? More likely the latter, I think.

Suggested that, if Eomer was a Wolf, Farael was probably not and vice versa (#348). Like Aiwendil, I am not sure that I agree with that and it could have been an attempt to protect a Wolfish Farael. She wasn’t entirely comfortable with the “Wereomer theory”, which doesn’t look to me the sort of thing a Wolf would say at that time, given that Eomer was in serious danger of being lynched.

Named as a possible Wolf by Eomer (#365), an interesting turnaround from his Day 3 surprise that she was under suspicion. Possibly, an attempt to put some distance between them.

Defended her non-committal stance and said that she did not expect to vote for Eomer (#366).

I have commented already on the exchange between Eomer and Celuien at the end of Day 4 (#400, #401) which led to her vote for tar. I am far inclined to see it more as suggesting her innocence than any complicity between them.

Not a lot to go on there, but what there is does not look particularly Wolfish to me. She’s not off my radar yet, but I am more inclined to think her innocent than any of the other non-Eomer voters.

[The Saucepan Man]

Sorting through my thoughts, this is where they get me. I have concentrated mainly on those who did not vote for Eomer yesterday, because I am certain that there is a Wolf there. More likely than not, there are two.

Main suspects: Farael, tar-ancalime

Making me nervous: Kath, Aiwendil, Glirdan

Probably innocent: mormegil, Nilp, Celuien

Innocent: Formendacil

Farael still looks very suspicious to me, but I am concerned by his vote for himself. It is very similar to what lmp did, and that makes me nervous.

However, it seems to me that there is much to suggest that tar-ancalime is a Wolf and her failure to contribute anything of great substance today, without explanation, concerns me greatly. It also seems sensible to me to keep the votes spread between my two prime suspects, as if one of them is innocent and there is a Wolf yet to vote, it may serve to keep them on their toes and possibly provide the village with something more to go on tomorrow.

++ TAR-ANCALIME