Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

[Boromir88]

After some thought I've concluded my vote will be either for Aiwendil or tar-ancalime.

I have had a funny feeling about Aiwendil. Yes, Aiwendil's been offering advice and has seemed pretty smart. But Farael has put together a strong case, and I'm worried that he's done a clever job of poking attention towards lmp, while never committing to a full accusal of him.

For someone who was pretty heavily suspected the last two days, we've all just seemed to have forgotten about our ex-leppress and everyone got caught up with lmp, as tar-ancalime has slipped in the background...that's never a good thing.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I've been looking at the Eomer affair from another angle. [If Eomer be a Werewolf: ]Since Eomer saw that everyone's suspicion was heading for him, don't you think he might have pulled off this bluff to exculpate him?

In which case, Boro would look bad (see above post).

Despite the nagging doubt that the Werewolves are playing us for fools, this thought is gaining reason in my head.

*shrug* Oh, well. I can do no more toDAY. I'm on borrowed time.

++Eomer of the Rohirrim

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I feel stupid.

[Boromir88]

But I think Eomer's quite suspicious. And, perhaps a wolf-Boro is using his theory to lead us away from their fellow, thus reinforcing their belief that Eaumor is indeed theirs.

Now let us not be so narrow-minded and quick to judge who is and who isn't a wolf (based on Eomer's guilt/innocence), that kind of thought will certainly lead you off the wolves trail.

mormegil has only caused suspiciouns of tar-ancalime to grow in me, and Glirdan keeps going up as I mentioned earlier. I have a strong feeling that 4 of those who voted for lmp yesterday, is certainly a wolf. A wolf would jump at the oppurtunity to cause such a break a way in voting and and get the entire village to band wagon against lmp. Which is never a good idea, because then the vote records would be more or less worthless. I'm glad lmp pulled out as it spread out the voting yesterday and made it more difficult for the wolves.

So what on those who did not vote for lmp?

There's probably a wolf with the Garin voters as well. Eomer's vote looks bad, but whether he is wolf or innocent we expect someone not to vote for themselves. (Unless your lmp)?

Garin's votes also attracts to Aiwendil and Kath, who got things spread out and looks as if they were swinging the votes away from Eomer and towards Garin. Garin was Aiwendil's main suspect throug the day so his doesn't look as suspicious as Kath's...hmmmm

I thank you Formendacil for stepping out this gives us one KNOWN innocent making it a whole bunch easier. Even though your dreams may be random, I would encourage you to step out and share what information you have, it may be of some benefit.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

An interesting case against Tar-Ancalime you have there, Mormegil. I'd make this point though: You say that she killed Holby and then Anguirel because they disagreed with her. Wouldn't the other two wolves put the brakes on this? Unless, of course, the other two wolves were subject to absolutely no suspicion on Day One and Two. Or they could be taking her for a ride (or she they).

Anyway Mormegil, the reason I didn't give my suspect list last night was because I knew it would probably change the next day! So here I am, and soon I will give a list of my suspects.

Why does Nilp 'feel stupid' immediately after voting for me?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Boro, didn't we establish earlier that the False Seer's dreams tell us nothing?

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

An interesting case against Tar-Ancalime you have there, Mormegil. I'd make this point though: You say that she killed Holby and then Anguirel because they disagreed with her. Wouldn't the other two wolves put the brakes on this? Unless, of course, the other two wolves were subject to absolutely no suspicion on Day One and Two. Or they could be taking her for a ride (or she they).

Anyway Mormegil, the reason I didn't give my suspect list last night was because I knew it would probably change the next day! So here I am, and soon I will give a list of my suspects.

Why does Nilp 'feel stupid' immediately after voting for me?

Eomer defends tar-a to an extent here, yet subsequently votes for her and he did so at a time when innocent Boromir had 1 vote and unknown Tar-A had 1 vote. This was early on in the day so I was thinking that Eomer didn't think his bandwagon was going to be picking up much speed and thought he could also save tar-a. I'm not sure what to make of this altogether but I want to add an additional Eomer quote.

Originally Posted by Eomer in post 365

Farael
Celuien
Nilpaurion


Two wolves in there, and my bets are Farael and Nilpaurion.

My guess is that Eomer likely included one wolf in that mix. I would be most inclined to think Farael then Celuein.

Tar-a also included Farael on her top 4 suspects list but voted Boromir. I've been milling this question over in my mind: Why would tar-a vote Boromir when she did? I know it was late for her but what could/does it mean. Was she the leading wolf hoping to get a bandwagon rolling for Boromir? Or was she an innocent who sincerely believed that Boromir was guilty. I still have no idea why people ever suspected him as there was nothing in his behavior that ever made me think him a wolf, the same is true with SpM but I am leary of fully trusting him.

There's something else about tar-a that doesn't sit right but I can't pinpoint it right now but I'll keep thinking about it and I may have an answer.

The more I hear from Aiwendil the more I find myself trusting him.

[mormegil]

Double post yes, but different topics.

I’ve been meaning to look a little bit at this and analyze how everybody responded to Spawn’s death.

Farael , as SpM pointed out, stated:

Hmm, this death makes Eomer look pretty bad... almost too bad to be real, don'tcha think? We have a smart pack of werewolves in our midst, maybe it's time I change strategy... although I'd much rather see Aiwendil lynched before I do.

Mormegil was never convinced of Eomer’s innocence and stated so.

Eomer claims the wolves are brilliant and gives an elaborate speech as to why the wolves would do this.

Celuien stated:

Spawn's death looks like a delibrate framing of Eomer after their sparring for the past couple of days. It's not really something I would expect a wolf Eomer to do since it does automatically make him look really, really bad.

But I'm not going to discount him from consideration. It is entirely possible that a Wereomer would have killed Spawn because it is too obvious, expecting to be discounted from debate as a result.

Boromir talks a bit about both sides and ends up leaning towards the set up theory

SpM states:

Well, dancing spawn's death certainly puts Eomer squarely in the frame. Question is, is it a set up or does a Wolfish Eomer count on us thinking that it is? The interesting thing is that dancing spawn and Eomer both made fair points against each other, based on similar reasoning. Their argument, essentially, was that the other had been raising a lot of suspicions but not making many strong accusations. While the fact that Eomer was wrong about her does not negate spawn's case against him, it does suggest that such cases can be fallible. We need to consider what other evidence there may be to suggest that Eomer is a Wolf.

In my opinion this seems very unwolfish. SpM is considering all options and attempting to view is Eomer is guilty.

Formendacil is a bit ambiguous about the point and doesn’t come to a real conclusion but this is moot as he is innocent

Tar-a ignores the issue completely and actually changes the subject. Hmmmm???

Farael defends Eomer’s position and states that the wolves didn’t’ set up Aiwendil by killing me (Farael) why would they set up Eomer.

Aiwendil, to his credit seems reasonable and open to both ideas initially.

Well, that's the little drama that went on in my head a few minutes ago when I saw that Spawn had been killed. Obviously, we're all familiar with the whole frame-up/double bluff/triple bluff/etc. craziness that's going on here. So what's the point of my little play? Well, it's this. It seems to me that to try to disentangle the psychology of last NIGHT's kill is futile. Either Eomer did it or he's being framed. But beyond that, who can say? Either possibility seems equally plausible to me.

Nilp never officially weighed in on the topic but did vote first for Eomer after some slight debate of the issue.

This makes tar-a and Farael look bad. Also Celuien also but not so bad as the other two.

[Formendacil]

Hello all,

Sorry about the lack of being around for the past several hours, but working eight hour shifts will put a crimp in your Werewolfing for sure.

Alas, but by unusually bad luck (for my work life, anyway), it is now 1:00 in the morning, my time, so after this post I'll probably be off to bed. And, as soon as I wake, I'm slated to return to work for an eight-hour day shift. There's a bright ray of Werewolfish hope from noonish until 1:30, so I'll be able to make a reappearance ere the day ends, and cast a vote before the cutoff, but I cannot act as a safeguard against Wolfish anti-plan votes, alas.

Having noted that, I want to say that I don't think Farael is guilty, although the simple fact of his suicide vote points me towards thinking that more than anything else he has done.

However, I don't agree with Farael that death is the best thing for him to do if he is unable to be around a lot from now on. I don't think that many of us really think him guilty. There are a lot more suspicious characters to deal with.... So Farael's vote, though irrevocably cast, ought to be ignored by the rest of us in seeking out the Wolves. I don't think killing Farael will help us any.

Normally, at this point in the game, if Morm and SPM are both alive, they tend to go for each other's throats. That hasn't happened this time, and for some reason I'm fairly sure of them both being innocents. Their votes yesterday for Eomer undoubtedly help in that matter, but the fact that both are playing on par, completely normally is a bit more decisive for me.

I don't put any stock in Nilp's acrostic hints. After the last game, he'd be a fool not to give SPM a hint like that, whatever his role. However, I DO think him Innocent, for now, anyway, although not for reason of the acrostic.

So, to recap, I agree with Morm's suggestion that scrutiny today should be focussed most on the non-Eomer voters of yesterday, leaving Morm, SPM, Nilp, and myself off the list. I'd also like to take Farael off the list, at least for today. He seems to be playing perfectly normally...

And... hmm... I'm out of things to talk about. If more occurs to me, I'll post again ere bedtime. If not... farewell for several hours.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by mormegil

So I vote for those I put forward as suspicious...well I must be a wolf

No. I said that it was understandable that your suspicions coincide with the most suspicious-looking villagers, but that your knack of picking the villager most likely to be lynched made me uneasy. Now, I tend to view villagers who make strong accusations of those looking most suspicious as likely innocents, on the basis that it is risky for a Wolf to be caught instigating or riding in a bandwagon that ends in an innocent being lynched. But perhaps you are banking on others thinking the same way. It’s probably not enough to warrant a vote today, I’ll grant you, but I’ll be keeping an eye on you.

My thoughts on everyone else.

Farael: I really don’t get Farael’s approach. He goes all out for Aiwendil, then decides that it might be worth lynching lmp as a test of Aiwendil’s guilt. He speculated that, if lmp was proved to be a Wolf, then that would suggest that Aiwendil was one too. Yet, when lmp is proved innocent, he still believes Aiwendil to be a Wolf. I don’t understand that at all. It is looking increasingly to me like Farael is a Wolf who has based his strategy on focusing on just a small group of innocents, possibly those whom the Wolves regard as dangerous.

Mormegil: My thoughts on mormegil are set out above. I don’t think the case for him being a Wolf is strong enough to vote for him – yet. But, if he keeps featuring so strongly in these moves against suspicious looking villagers who turn out to be innocent, I will start looking very closely at him.

Aiwendil: As I have said, I really don’t understand Farael’s case against Aiwendil. I certainly cannot see how lmp’s innocence implicates him as a Wolf. He seems to me to have been thoughtful and helpful throughout. Not so much “flip-flopping” as carefully weighing up the evidence. Perhaps those who suspect him would care to explain the reasoning for their suspicions a little more clearly, because I can see very little that suggests that he is a Wolf.

Glirdan: I said yesterday that I would like to hear more from him and that remains the case. His quietness and the seemingly non-committal nature of the contributions that he has made, however, is making him look increasingly suspicious. I am no longer prepared to regard him as a probable innocent.

Formendacil: I believe his claim to be the False Seer. It’s possible that he is a Wolf trying to pull the wool over our eyes and banking on the fact that we will view any subsequent False Seer claim as an obvious Wolfish move. But, as he was under no particular danger, I doubt that he would have taken the risk of making this claim, if a Wolf.

Nilpaurion Felagund: He has contributed more today, but little more than a vote for Eomer and a comment that Boro would look bad if Eomer turns out to be a Wolf. I like to think that I can still trust him, though.

Eomer of the Rohirrim: For me, the question of whether Eomer is a Wolf depends upon whether spawn’s death was a Wolfish attempt to frame him or a bold Wolfish move. I have reviewed his posts again and can see little more to go on other than that which has already been noted (by spawn and me, among others). His pattern of behaviour could go either way for me. Certainly, I would have expected a Wolfish Eomer to have been more bold in his daytime behaviour, but equally I would expect a Wolfish Eomer to be bold enough to kill spawn. Definitely one of my main suspects, though.

Kath: Nothing from her today, so nothing to add to my thoughts expressed earlier today. It is notable that she made a few lengthy contributions after her quietness had been noted, and that they comprised a villager by villager analysis of the first three days, rather than a more helpful analysis of patterns of behaviour. Still looking suspicious to me.

Celuien: One of my prime suspects from the first few days, although that was largely based on her attempt to divert suspicion on Day 1, following morm’s random accusation of her. Has managed to avoid much suspicion so far and, if non-committal posts and a tendency to express no strong suspicions are to be taken as a sign of Wolfishness, then she fits the pattern.

Tar-Ancalime: Holby’s vote for tar followed by her death has diverted my gaze from her for too long. I am increasingly coming round to the view that, whether Holby dreamed of her or not, a Wolfish tar thought that she might be the Seer on the basis of that vote and killed her for it. It’s either that or the Wolves got very lucky. That Day 1 vote for Eomer also still looks suspicious to me. If Eomer is a Wolf, then it could have been a safe Wolf-on-Wolf vote. And, even if not, then it still looks like a safe vote for a Wolf at that time. Looking increasingly suspicious to me.

Boromir88: Boro, on the other hand, looks increasingly innocent to me as time wears on. He seems genuine in his attempts to find the Wolves. He has been neither non-committal, expressing strong suspicions at times, nor hasty, always giving good reasoning for his thoughts. Sometimes, when one thinks someone is innocent, one has to stick to that belief (in the absence of evidence to the contrary), no matter the risk of ending up looking extremely foolish. And I’m sticking to my belief that Boro is most likely innocent.

As usual, a summary of where this gets me:

Main suspects: Farael, Eomer, Kath, tar-ancalime

Making me nervous: mormegil, Celuin

Just don’t know: Glirdan

Probably innocent: Aiwendil, Nilp, Boro

Almost certainly innocent: Formendacil

I have time before I cast my vote but, unless there are any major developments, it is likely to go to one of my current main suspects.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Farael
Celuien
Nilpaurion


Two wolves in there, and my bets are Farael and Nilpaurion.

I explained before how weird I thought Farael's case against Aiwendil, and the reaction from the village, was. Comes out, all guns blazing, with little evidence (as I see it) for an attack on Aiwendil. Celuien and Nilpaurion (as well as Lhunardawen, to be fair) both shrug him off as likely to be innocent. I think this may well have been the wolf-agenda for the first night. Farael decided he would pick a target and the others (or one of the others) would back him up. The village was distracted with other stuff (like the Seer talk) and would probably just take the other wolf's word for it. And that other wolf is either Celuien or Nilpaurion.

My money's on Nilp, simply because of that weirdness he pulled earlier on—that 'I feel stupid' post. That's not helping anyone. It's designed to be vague and to confuse us, and since he's under barely any suspicion (SPM trusts him because of that anagram, which I think is a very dangerous move to make) he could get away with this because the village would probably say 'Oh Nilp! and nothing more.

The third wolf? Could be Celuien herself. Could be SPM with his friendliness towards Nilp. Could be Aiwendil and the whole Farael feud is a hoax. Kath is looking more and more suspicious with that unhelpful summary and lack of any suspect at all in the first two days.

Glirdan I just cannot tell. Tar-Ancalime could go either way. Mormegil I'm inclined to think is a somewhat rash but true villager.

Formendacil's claim is almost definitely genuine because the real False Seer would have nothing to lose by coming out against him.

Boromir I am inclined to trust.


Incidentally, am I being shrill or smooth or both? Because I'm enjoying the advantages and disadvantages of both at the moment. (Hint: make up your mind.)

[Celuien]

If I'm non-committal, it's because I'm genuinely unsure of what to think. I don't want to rashly accuse and have us lose another innocent. Especially given that I've been so terribly wrong. I was sure of Garin, and look where that led me. Not looking to repeat that mistake.

I believe Fordmenacil. An impersonator would have nothing to gain and everything to lose.

I don't expect you to take my word for it, Eomer, but if your list of Farael,
Nilpaurion and myself does have two wolves on it, one is not me. And of Nilp and Farael, on consideration, I find the latter the more suspicious given the lmp/Aiwendil business discussed above.


Anyway, I probably will not be voting for Eomer toDAY unless something radically changes. I will, however, continue to watch him.

[The Saucepan Man]

I have been reviewing mormegil's case against tar-ancalime. While much of it is circumstantial, and some of it is based on what I think were jokey or "in-character" comments, he makes a very good point here:

Originally Posted by mormegil

Forgoes changing her vote because she doesn’t want to make it uninformed citing Kath’s previous example. It’s interesting though that she had some strong thoughts on Garin and yet didn’t vote for him when she could have.

Tar has accepted that this was a mistake but said that, if she had voted for Garin, that would have been seen as Wolfish too. Actually, as I have said, I am more inclined to believe that those who vote for innocent villagers who are likely to be lynched (and thereby shown to be innocent) are likely to be innocent themselves, because it is such risky behaviour for a Wolf. To express strong suspicions about an innocent villager and then not vote for him, leaving others to do the lynching, looks a lot more suspicious to me.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Incidentally, am I being shrill or smooth or both? Because I'm enjoying the advantages and disadvantages of both at the moment.

Actually, it seems to me that you are being both by turn. Although, I am not sure what to make of that. I would expect a Wolf to be more consistent, but it may be designed to confuse us.