Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

[tar-ancalime]

As I mentioned in my previous post, it's getting very, very late here on my side of the village.

I was going to vote lmp anyway; his real desire to get out of the game cemented it in my mind.

Like Kath yesterday, I don't want to make a quick, unexamined vote just for the sake of voting. I think it's too late in the game for that. Unfortunately I think I'll have to forego voting for the day.

I apologize--I have honestly done all I can today.

[Glirdan]

I like tar am getting rather annoyed with this. And I know, especially under the curcumstances not to mention the bit of suspicion that I already have, what I'm about to do will definetly hurt me. However, it is (kind of) necessary. I will forego my vote as well. I would go back and look over, but I'm quite tied up at the moment (baysitting) and I do not have a lot of time to reread everything. I will try to contribut more, however, this week, that's looking quite unlikely. I will, however, still participate in the discussions for the time being (when I can) and I may decide to change my mind and may vote.

--Lmp

[The Saucepan Man]

I find myself at a bit of a loss to know what to do now. My entire thinking today up to now was based on the assumption that littlemanpoet was a Wolf. I was settled on voting for him today and then looking at others whom his guilt implicated.

But, since lmp has disappeared without a whiff of Wolfishness, I am now left with a bunch of fellow villagers, some of whom look suspicious and some of whom don't, but none of which really stands out.

I have some more thinking to do, as I don't want to forego my vote, but little time in which to do it. Back shortly with such conclusions as I am able to draw.

[Kath]

Please excuse the extreme length of this post and be aware that there will be another of similar size following a little later if not two.

Day 1:
Lmp – usual occupation related blather, with a point about buying a knife that brought up suspicions against him later, though these were dropped. Also began the Seer discussion. Disagrees with Glirdan about killing the quiet ones, believing we should look at those who are suspicious and be wary of assuming the wolves will act in a certain way. Fair points. Thinks Aiwendil innocent because of the questions he asked and answers the first one fully, which wouldn’t matter if he is a wolf. His Seer advice seems sound, except for his emphasis on very – we need some clues! Says 5-6 may be spreading the votes too thin but then agrees absolutely with SPM about spreading the votes so long even though SPM just said ‘if that results in a wide field, then so much the better’. Agrees with tar-a about dropping the Seer discussion even though he is the one that started it, then continues with it! Thinks too much clarity might help the wolves. I’m not sure what he means by this but don’t think I’m likely to get an answer toDay. Replies to Anguirel. Thinks there is something a little ‘off’ about SPM. Suspects Boromir and votes for him.

Anguirel – blather. Disagrees with lmp that trying to think like a wolf would is wolvish but agrees about not thinking of the Seers. Claims wolves will act differently depending on their skills, a good point. Thinks Lhuna’s vote odd – but it was random. Supports Glirdan. Disagrees with Eomer over how a wolf would act, reiterating his point about actions being dependent on personal skills. Supports Celuien. Thinks tar-a innocent but Gil guilty. Says Boromir is his most likely target. Votes Boromir. Thinks the voting is now spread quite enough.

Glirdan – wants to get rid of all quiet people (eep!) though I believe that was later explained as a ploy to generate conversation. I don’t like the idea, preferring instead to lynch those I either believe to be wolves or, failing that, those who I feel will be of no help to the village. Some might say that is true of quiet villagers, but as some quiet ones have been known to be the Seer in the past I disagree. However, he does somewhat redeem this statement by claiming he believes one of the wolves would be quiet, so to lynch all the quiet ones would eventually result in catching a wolf. A bit of a drastic measure perhaps, but it may be effective. Votes Gil completely randomly due to time constraints. I think this is fair, it was an early vote and looks random.

Boromir – blather but mentions lmp specifically about not looking to fill his wallet. Seemingly ignoring the fact that Anguirel did the same thing. With the suspicions flying around now it seems possible this was early wolvish communication. The ‘usual . . . too usual’ post, though I find nothing there to be suspicious of, he is making a valid observation. More Seer discussion though it is more just worries. Agrees with spreading the votes and finds something unusual in Lhuna’s behaviour. Chirpiness and junk-filled posts his reasoning. Gripe about how because he works and had little time he is suspected. Suspects Aiwendil and Garin. Votes Gil even though it wasn’t actually necessary to save his life, and though he may not have realised this at the time is certainly is odd.

Tar-a – blather, though claims the wolves would not go near her, perhaps because she is one? Still blather though supporting lmp and Anguirel, but this may be in role. Has a little chat about the Seer and then suggests everyone be quiet about it. A little hypocritical perhaps but a good point. Disagrees with Lhuna somewhat, saying she doesn’t want a village cut in half by opinion. Thinks spawn’s summary was useless (uh oh, what will she think of this!). Can see both SPM and lmp’s point of view about Seer talk, but still believes it should be stopped. Seems to suspect spawn and says she may well vote for her. Says she now understands spawns reasons for summarising and votes Eomer as a random vote though also in case he is a wolf as she’d rather he go earlier than later.

Aiwendil – mentions both lmp and Boromir, maybe a triad? Wants serious discussion so creates a list of questions. Now, to my mind, answering these privately may be of help, but openly publicising them is probably not as the answers, especially those to the first two, would be of more help to the wolves than to the villagers, as they would tell them how NOT to act and how to find Gifted’s. I’m not sure if this is truly suspicious, it may have been an attempt to generate discussion and such things are often talked about, but it is odd. Clarifies his earlier statement about how many villagers to spread the votes over but backs off his earlier certainty, perhaps to stay in line with villagers thoughts. Again more talk about the Seer. Disagrees with SPM that Seer talk aids the wolves. Thinks lmp the most helpful of the day along with Boromir and SPM. Thinks Glirdan’s vote for Gil a ‘safe’ vote for a wolf. Says tar-a is too indecisive, testing out ideas and backing off when they are not well received, which is a fair point. Defends himself against Farael. Thinks Boromir has indeed said much but helped little, but doesn’t see him as suspicious and will likely vote tar-a. Continues to argue with Farael and wonders if he should vote tar-a since the votes are already so spread. Votes tar-a anyway.

SPM – blather but some good points such as getting everyone to talk and spreading the votes. Disagrees with Glirdan on simply lynching quiet people, which I agree with. Is the only one so far to point at both lmp and Anguirel as being opportunistic, which to me makes him look innocent, as I have been worried over those who only pointed out lmp. Answers Aiwendil’s questions but gives vague responses to the first two, again actually making me think him innocent due to my worries over these questions earlier. Likes all the talking – noo! Look at all this I have to analyse! *whimpers* Ahem. Disagrees with lmp but agrees with Ang that thinking like a wolf should not be seen as suspicious. But agrees with tar-a (and myself) that such thoughts should not be publicised for fear they will help the wolves more than the villagers. Thinks morm is behaving as usual. Thinks Glirdan innocent, believing that if he were a wolf he would not be so bold. Agrees that Seer talk should be stopped and the Gifted’s left alone – agreed, but he certainly seems to put a lot of faith in what tar-a says. Not happy with lmp and Aiwendil because they are encouraging Seer talk. We see his first suspicion of Lhuna over her vote for Glirdan. Thinks Nilp innocent. Wants to hear more from those who have been quiet or useless so far. Suspects (ish) Aiwendil, Lhuna, lmp and Celuien. Thinks Nilp, Ang and spawn innocent. Reserves judgment on others. Feels Gil and Glirdan innocent. Thinks there’s something odd about tar-a because she switched from spawn to Eomer so fast, but actually there was a post explaining that she’d dropped suspicion of spawn in between. Votes Lhuna due to her vote.

Morm – I think jokingly accuses 4 people (he did say it was random). Gil, Tar-a, Celuien and Holby, claiming two would be wolves. But really I doubt there was anything behind that. Adds Lhuna to his suspect list. Says Gil is the only one who reacted to his suspicions unusually but keeps quiet about the others. Votes Gil basically to get rid of him. Also suspects tar-a, Ang and Celuien.

Farael – blather. Mentions tar-a though I think that’s in role. Claims Aiwendil is a wolf. Some silly reasoning, as in thinks this due to a comment that said random accusations and nonsense will help the wolves is suspicious. To this I say – what? I agree with his comment about the questions being more helpful to the wolves though. Not happy about the Seer talk, but again I think the reasons unfounded. Thinks Aiwendil has been playing too safe. On that I disagree as Aiwendil puts forwards theories and those questions, which gained him a lot of attention. Votes Aiwendil for the reasons earlier stated.

Gil – berates Glirdan for his vote. Vote Glirdan and I feel it was entirely in revenge and had no real reasoning behind it.

Holby – replies to morm’s ‘accusations’ with some role related stuff. Then answers Aiwendil’s questions with tales of experience rather than conjecture, making me think her more innocent than guilty since she is relying on past data, which the wolves will already know. Explains her comment about reacting to jokes. Suspects Lhuna and tar-a, votes tar-a.

Celuien – blather. Replies to morm with more blather. Points out tar-a and Ang though I think jokingly. Keeps on with the Seer talk. Disagrees with Farael but find both him and Aiwendil innocent. Votes Gil for my reasons and now thinks tar-a innocent due to a missed quote.

Lhuna – blather but now we know also an anagram in the title proclaiming her role for anyone who could read it. Very much disagrees with Glirdan’s ‘lynch the quiet ones’ idea because she feels she would be in danger due to timezone issues. Agrees with SPM and tar-a. Thinks Aiwendil is innocent due to his question, though she doesn’t deign to answer them. Blather. Wonders if perhaps we should be wary of those who disagree with tar-a. Votes Glirdan. To explain this post of hers I believe she was saying that she had to vote and it would be random. She picked Glirdan but didn’t really think him to be a wolf.

Form – blather. Says he won’t join in as he finds Day 1’s pointless. Votes Boromir without reason due to sickness.

Nilp – starts with his little anagram. Bit of normal Nilp behaviour and then votes for Farael due to promise. Odd that he isn’t suicidal though.

Spawn – summarises the day. Since this is what I’m doing I won’t repeat it all. Mentions Glirdan’s vote and thinks it random, though perhaps influenced by past experiences. Seems to feel Aiwendil is suspicious for his questions. Thinks over the top reactions to a jokey accusation are suspicious. Has some suspicion of Celuien. Replies to tar-a explaining her (good) reasons for summarising the day. Points out that we have no Cobbler. Thinks Gil and Glirdan innocent and acting as usual. Finds Lhuna suspicious for her vote. Doesn’t find Farael, Aiwedil or tar-a suspicious, and I think I agree. Gets into Seer discussion. Votes Lhuna for previous reasons.

Eomer – blather. Pretty much answers Aiwendil’s first question with thoughts of how a wolf would act. Claims wolves will be timid, but I’m not so sure that’s the case. Facetious behaviour toward Lhuna. Repeats his assumption on the way wolves will act. Rebukes tar-a jokingly for voting for him. Thinks Glirdan innocent but has some suspicions toward Lhuna and Gil. Bit of a flip flop on Lhuna there. Thinks morm has been behaving a bit oddly. Wonders if spawn and tar-a are working together. Votes Lhuna due to her vote.

Garin – thinks those who are repeatedly quiet and useless should be lynched rather than just quiet ones in general. Ok, that’s about fair. Some blather. Wants the False Seer killed off right away, apparently having missed that whoever it is won’t know whether they are the real or false Seer. I think suspects Boromir. Leaning towards Boromir, Lhuna and Gil. Votes Boromir.



And an innocent Gil dies. Now I know this is just Day 1 but I have taken into account things we know now, though for some of this the whole thing with the anagrams and lmp has not been taken into account.

Make of this what you will. I should have time to do Day 2 and hopefully 3. You’ll have my conclusions later.

[Aiwendil]

The Saucepan Man wrote:

I find myself at a bit of a loss to know what to do now.

That makes two of us. While I wasn't certain that LMP was a wolf, he was, as I said, my chief suspect for toDAY.

I'm hoping that there's some information to be gleaned from the fact of his innocence. But for the moment, I'm quite at a loss.

Must go think.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

So am I right in thinking that I can go

--LITTLEMANPOET ?

We need an agreement among players. I think it's for the best that we discount LMP from today's votes.

[mormegil]

--LMP

at least I will do that and I must say that I admire the man for sticking to his convictions.

Now who looks most suspicious? I'm not sure. Garin? Eomer? Celuien keeps coming to mind to and has been abscent, if I recall, for all of Today.

This is a really odd feeling right now.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I have been keeping up with discussion, honestly. It's just that I haven't been commenting on too much of it. The more I think about it the more I realise that it looks wolvish.

Oh dear...

I'll try to give a more comprehensive post. At least that will give you all something to go on if I die today.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I have tried to draw my thoughts together as best I can, given that the rather dramatic events of today have left me at bit of a loss. Blame that for my lack of firm conclusions below. If you'll pardon the expression, I was rather barking up the wrong tree for most of the day.

Farael: Farael shifted slightly from his single-minded pursuit of Aiwendil and suggested that we should lynch littlemanpoet because that might give us information about Aiwendil. I agreed that littlemanpoet should be lynched because I thought that he was a Wolf. And, if he had been a Wolf, I would have been looking at Farael as one of his conspirators. I'm not sure what Farael's suggestion to vote for lmp tells us about him, or his Aiwendil theory, now. I need to think about that some more.

Mormegil: I considered mormegil's votes earlier today. Essentially, he has been centrally involved in the lynching of two known innocents. That's suspicious, but by no means conclusive. He continues to be rather unusually quiet. I did have the feeling that, if littlemanpoet was a Wolf, mormegil was probably innocent. I will now have to go back and see if the opposite is true, as I thought it might be. Possibly one to watch for the future.

Aiwendil: As far as I can see, his only real misdemeanour is his Day 1 Seer talk. And that, as I have said, is much less of an indicator of possible guilt than it was in the past two days, since so much more has happened since then. I am not setting too much store in the fact that he suspects me, as I expected to be under suspicion for much the same reason that he outlined today. I think that he is just over-analysing and drawing the wrong conclusion and have no other real reason to suspect him at this stage.

Glirdan: I have been giving him the benefit of the doubt for now, based on his early votes. But I would like to start hearing a lot more from him. Still coming across as innocent to me, though.

Formendacil: Very quiet, but he explained why. I'm going to have to reserve judgment on him for now. Still, illness or no illness (and my sympathies, by the way), I can't keep reserving judgment on him for ever ...

Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant: Has, like Farael, become rather single-minded in her pursuit of Eomer and is therefore becoming difficult to get a handle on. While I think that she has made some good points, I can also see the sense in what Eomer said in response. Until she settled on her case against Eomer, she too was merely raising suspicions without following them through.

Nilpaurion Felagund: Has not contributed today, but explained why on the village noticeboard. Whatever you may think of think of how I got there, I still think him likely to be innocent. If he's not, he will be punished ...

Eomer of the Rohirrim: I set out my thoughts on Eomer earlier. I stand by them, but he makes a fair point about spawn. And there is little else against either of them.

Kath: Her quietness was troubling me. Has now contributed with a major summary of Day 1's events (and more to follow). While that's helpful in it's way, it doesn't really tell us much about her. On the assumption that there is a quiet Wolf (not necessarily a safe assumption, admittedly), she was looking to be the obvious candidate and I think that still holds, as her summary gives us very little information on the way that she is thinking. She has voted for a known innocent, and did not vote yesterday. While I acknowledge her explanation for that, I just don't like "no-votes" since they reduce the amount of information available to work on.

Garin: Garin's early vote for Boro is a concern. My reason for thinking him likely to be innocent was that he was looking very suspicious, which is how Garin always looks. I will have to go back and look at what he has said in more detail, but I am not inclined to vote for him today.

Celuien: She was looking very suspicious to me yesterday and has said nothing today. That might be regarded as suspicious, but I can't help thinking that a Wolf would have been more involved.

Tar-Ancalime: I had been regarding her as a likely innocent because Holby voted for her and then died. Spawn makes the point that this may have alerted a Wolfish tar and her fellow fiends to Holby being the Seer. Or maybe that was to stop us looking more closely at spawn, given that Eomer had noted a possible connection between them. I still think that it would have been too risky for a Wolfish tar to kill Holby but, then again, this has actually served to take the heat off her somewhat. She has contributed today without saying too much, if you get my meaning, but that's probably understandable in the circumstances. I am not sure about tar, but I am less inclined now to regard her as a probable innocent.

Boromir88: My thoughts about Boro, as they developed today, hinged on lmp being a Wolf. They both went strongly against each other at the beginning and then backed off each other considerably. I am not sure how lmp's innocence affects this, but I am still inclined to trust Boro. His understanding of lmp's predicament speaks considerably in his favour.

To summarise, as I did yesterday:

Main suspects: None really now.

Making me nervous: Farael, mormegil, spawn, Eomer, Kath, tar-ancalime

Just don’t know: Formendacil, Garin, Celuin

Probably innocent: Aiwendil, Glirdan, Nilp, Boro

I will have to vote soon. At the moment, though, I am in a bit of a quandary.