Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

[Shelob]

(ToDAY we begin in the village bank, where the villagers are desperately searching for ANGUIREL.)

Boromir88: Anguirel, can you hear us?
Littlemanpoet: Come on man, call out.
Dancing Spawn: I don’t think we’ll find him, the wolves did a good job whatever they did.
Eomer: Without even a trace of his body, we’ll never be able to bury him properly…
Aiwendil: Has anyone looked in the safes yet?
Garin: Could anyone get them open?

(The villagers go take a closer look at the safes.)

Kath: This one isn’t closed all the way, we might be able to pry it open.
Formendacil: No, it’s stuck on something.
Mormegil: We won’t be able to open it.
Farael: Maybe you people can’t, but I’ve got Chemicals, stand aside.

(After many failed attempts Farael does manage to open the safe. Within it they find Anguirel, stuffed in and contorted and certainly not alive.)

Glirdan: Looks like we’re back where we were.
Tar: Only short another innocent.

(They leave the bank and it’s unfortunate banker, and return to the village square for another DAY of trying to find the wolves)

-----
Living:
Saucepan Man
Farael
Mormegil
Aiwendil
Glirdan
Formendacil
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant
Nilpaurion Felagund
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Littlemanpoet
Kath
Garin
Celuien
Tar-Ancalime
Boromir88

Dead:
Shelob (Mod)--Killed by wolves on NIGHT 1
Abercrombie (Mod)--Killed while Yeti-Spotting on NIGHT 1
Gil-Galad (Ordinary)--Lynched at the close of DAY 1
Holbytlass (True Seer)--Gloucester-ized and welled on NIGHT 2
Lhunardawen (Ordinary)--Drown’d a muddy death upon DAY 2
Anguirel (Ordinary)—Killed quite safely during NIGHT 3

DAY 3 Begins, yadda yadda yadda...and I’d like to apologise for this death but I woke up at 4.30 and had to leave, like, now. So the whole thing was written no more than 20 minutes, meaning it's not what I planned and I'm not happy with it, but it does what it needs to so I'm not going to complain (anymore).

[littlemanpoet]

I have been a bad sport and my own worst enemy, haunted apparently by the ghosts of my ancestors, one of whom was falsely accused by a Hunter, another of whom was falsely played by a Fool then lynched by that same Fool and his stooge Hunter. But those are old ghosts and do not apply to this generation, so even though that baggage has trammeled me up until toDay in this village, it shall no more. I set it aside.

I have wronged all of you and I am sorry. Sorry for having been so prickly just because I was wrongly suspected; sorry for having decided that it would be fun to be an obnoxious, offensive name calling virtual orc by way of self-defense; sorry for having haughtily decided in advance that because I am innocent, I don't owe explanations to anyone. I know better now: had I explained myself sooner and better, I would not have needlessly distracted you from the real quarry.

I do not expect anyone to believe me toDay, for I realize that I have squandered any trust or patience previously afforded me. I don't expect you to change your minds about me because of these words; I'm not quite that much of a fool. Havine received three votes yesterDay, and having been the second choice for lynching by at least three more of you, I am resigned to my likely fate, and will from this point onward, endeavor to mend my ways and be a help to the village rather than an attention diverting hindrance. Maybe my contribution toDay will be useful after I'm gone.

Thank you.

p.s.: I am sorry if this only adds more confusion to you, for I imagine that some of you are thinking that LMP has hereby done a flip-flop, and is even less to be trusted. Think what you must. I am prepared for the worst.

[Boromir88]

I think I'll be more of an observer today, that's something I need to get back to instead of being narrow minded and going after one person...(ahem lmp) which I take you are being sincere and if you are a wolf I deserve what's coming to me for being schnookered.

[The Saucepan Man]

Ahem! Did anyone notice that Lhuna was lynched and Ang just died? Perhaps we ought to be looking into what we can learn from that rather than wallowing in self-pity or withdrawing from the village!

Pah!

Here's the voting record:

1. Glirdan for Lhunardawen (Lhunardawen-1)
2. Nilpaurion Felagund for Anguirel (Lhunardawen-1, Anguirel-1)
3. Lhunardawen for littlemanpoet (Lhunardawen-1, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-1)
4. Celuin for Garin (Lhunardawen-1, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-1, Garin-1)
5. Tar-ancalime for Garin (Lhunardawen-1, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-1, Garin-2)
6. Farael for Aiwendil (Lhunardawen-1, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-1, Garin-2, Aiwendil-1)
7. Garin for Boromir88 (Lhunardawen-1, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-1, Garin-2, Aiwendil-1, Boromir88-1)
8. Eomer of the Rohirrim for Lhunardawen (Lhunardawen-2, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-1, Garin-2, Aiwendil-1, Boromir88-1)
9. Anguirel for Lhunardawen (Lhunardawen-3, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-1, Garin-2, Aiwendil-1, Boromir88-1)
10. The Saucepan Man for littlemanpoet (Lhunardawen-3, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-2, Garin-2, Aiwendil-1, Boromir88-1)
11. Dancing spawn of ungoliant for Eomer (Lhunardawen-3, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-2, Garin-2, Aiwendil-1, Boromir88-1, Eomer-1)
12. Mormegil for Lhunardawen (Lhunardawen-4, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-2, Garin-2, Aiwendil-1, Boromir88-1, Eomer-1)
13. Aiwendil for Garin (Lhunardawen-4, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-2, Garin-3, Aiwendil-1, Boromir88-1, Eomer-1)
14. Formendacil for Aiwendil (Lhunardawen-4, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-2, Garin-3, Aiwendil-2, Boromir88-1, Eomer-1)
15. Boromir88 for littlemanpoet (Lhunardawen-4, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-3, Garin-3, Aiwendil-2, Boromir88-1, Eomer-1)
16. littlemanpoet for Lhunardawen (Lhunardawen-5, Anguirel-1, littlemanpoet-3, Garin-3, Aiwendil-2, Boromir88-1, Eomer-1)

Did not vote: Kath

Back shortly.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

... wallowing in self-pity ...

I refuse to take umbrage at this slight. It is not self-pity; you misunderstand. It is remorse. There is a difference, rest assured.

[Kath]

I'm not sure what to make of Kath's vote. Noble and appropriate or an easy way out? I'm leaning towards noble and appropriate.

Thank you morm. I decided it would be better not to vote as I had only had time to disagree with the lynching of Lhuna, I had not had time to analyse everyone and make a real judgement. Any vote I had made at that moment would have been random and more than likely based on feelings rather than evidence.

ToDay however I do at last have some real time to spend in this village! Expect a rather lengthy post from me tomorrow (RL) when I've had an opportunity to go through everything as thoroughly as I'd like to.

And thanks to lmp as well. Past grievances and general dislikes can lead to a lot of tension in a village and make the whole thing less fun. I think what you said was genuine, so thank you.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, first of all, I cannot help but comment on littlemanpoet's strange behaviour this morning.

Originally Posted by lmp

It is not self-pity; you misunderstand. It is remorse.

Bit dramatic, isn't it? Seemingly you are trying to appeal to the mercy of the village.

Originally Posted by lmp

p.s.: I am sorry if this only adds more confusion to you, for I imagine that some of you are thinking that LMP has hereby done a flip-flop, and is even less to be trusted. Think what you must. I am prepared for the worst.

Quite so. My very thoughts, even before I reached your little PS. You want to be helpful do you? Somehow I doubt that you will be. Because I believe that you are a Wolf. I suspected as much yesterday, and now I am pretty much convinced. I think that you are trying a change of tack because your previous modus operandi was sending off the wrong signals and almost got you lynched.

When I looked back over your contributions overnight, I noticed some very interesting things. Like this for example:

Originally Posted by lmp in #18

I have found that werewolves find it difficult to put on the act of innocence, and their guilt can often be read between the lines of what they say when they "suspect" others.

Originally Posted by lmp in #135

Sure I'm suspicious. I like being suspicious. As long as I don't get lynched it keeps me in the game longer. So suspect me to your heart's content.

You say that Wolves find it hard to put on an act of innocence, a statement which makes sense to me. And yet you seek to excuse your own seemingly suspicious behaviour. It's all just to try to stay in the game longer, you say. I think that, when you realised that you were coming under suspicion, you needed to think of an excuse to cover it.

There's more. A lot more, and I hope to come to it later today.

But before that, I think that it might be fruitful to consider why the Wolves killed Ang. He voiced few suspicions on Day 1, concentrating mainly on calling for Boro to be lynched. He was the first to vote for Boro, a vote which was generally not considered to be overly suspicious (although those which followed for Boro were). On Day 2, he maintained his suspicion of Boro, but then started looking at Lhuna and Nilp. He ended up voting for Lhuna who, as we know, was innocent. On Day 2, he was suspected by Lhuna and Nilp, who voted for him (Nilp, that is). Other than that, he does not seem to have come under much suspicion.

So, does that implicate Boro? Might it implicate Nilp? I am not so sure, because I remain fairly comfortable about both of them (although I don't like the sound of you sloping off to the sidelines Boro - your input is most certainly needed at this grave time). It could be an attempt to frame up one or both of them. Possibly an attempt to relieve the pressure on the others who voted for Boro on Day 1? Or it could be that Ang said something to alarm the Wolves. I will go and have a look back through his contributions.

I also intend looking into the Lhuna voters a bit more closely. Lmp was one of them and I think that he is the Wolf in that pack. There may be another one there, although I am not convinced as Lhuna did look rather suspicious to me. Worth a look nevertheless. It's probably worth looking at those who voted for Lhuna on Day 1 as well.

[Garin]

Littlemanpoet's quick post after the poor Anguirel's death seems almost too egregious.

Could a wolf be so bold as to appear so apologetic and hence so guilty? He offers no explanation, just remorse. Yes, this could be a clumsy lupine ploy.

Which brings us to the feud between LmP and Boromir... I am not convinced that they are at odds with eachother. This again could be some wolvish tactic.

I was never was convinced at Lhuna's guilt, I mentioned voting for her on the first day to simply even up the votes but was seriously cross-posted. Nonetheless, I have voted for no proven innocents and so I willl post my personal list of fools...

Celuin
Tar-ancalime
Aiwendil

One of you is a wolf. I can nearly envision those night-time PMs. "Let's not kill Garin because he will manage to get himself lynched."

I think that, despite the early success of taking away our blessed True Seer, this will be a very quick game and the werewolves will soon be defeated.

[Aiwendil]

Fellow villagers, I'm afraid we're not in great shape. With four innocents dead (including the Seer), I think that toDAY may be the DAY that makes or breaks the village. We need to get our act together, discuss things rationally, and, above all, lynch a wolf.

Despite the flak I took from some for offering questions as a way to prompt intelligent discussion on DAY 1, I will lay out the things I think we need to ponder toDAY.

First, was Lhuna's death an unfortunate accident or was it brought on by the wolves? I must admit that I had not been watching Lhuna as carefully as I perhaps should have. For myself, I'll have to go back and review her posts and the arguments against her. Of course, we should watch everyone who voted for Lhuna toDAY.

Second, why did the wolves kill Anguirel? I've looked fairly quickly back over his posts and I see no hints of Giftedness. I also don't see any obvious frame-up scheme, especially since Ang had voted for Lhuna. To be honest, the choice confuses me a bit, for surely Ang would have come under suspicion toDAY for his vote, had he not been killed.

I expect that LMP will come under close scrutiny toDAY. He's certainly one of my top suspects. His behaviour so far has been somewhat slippery. Now, I don't hold it against someone that he changes his mind. It's often the mark of considered, rational thought. But LMP seems to be changing his mind without reason. On DAY 1, he utters not one word against Boromir until the very end of the DAY, when he becomes fervently in favour of lynching him. On DAY 2, he explains that, though he did not tell us, he actually suspected Boromir before Ang did. Early on DAY 2, his suspects are Boromir, Mormegil, and Formendacil (see post 142). Note that at this point Lhuna is "maybe innocent" and I am "probably innocent". In post 208 he pivots, mentioning Lhuna as a suspect. And then suddenly in post 216, his chief suspects are Lhuna, Garin, and me. He's almost become the quantum villager: it's impossible to know both his suspicions and the speed at which those suspicions are changing at the same time.

Again, changing one's opinions is not in itself suspicious. And if LMP offered what seem to me to be rational explanations for these changes of opinion, I would probably not think them much cause for concern. But LMP does not offer much in that department. Rather, he justifies his opinions by saying that he is going with his gut and playing intuitively. Now if that isn't a great excuse for a wolf to ride the ever-changing currents of public opinion, I don't know what is.

So the big question in my mind toDAY is whether LMP is guilty. If he's a wolf, lynching him toDAY would be a major victory, as he's a cunning fellow. I also need to review my two top suspects from yesterDAY, Formendacil and Garin.

One other point that occurs to me: there is one villager who has so far been more or less exempt from suspicion. I speak of The Saucepan Man. Of course, he's seemed helpful. That's as one would expect. I suppose this is a question that inevitably comes up at about this point in the game, but why is he still alive? I think it would be wise to review his posts carefully.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

One other point that occurs to me: there is one villager who has so far been more or less exempt from suspicion. I speak of The Saucepan Man. Of course, he's seemed helpful. That's as one would expect. I suppose this is a question that inevitably comes up at about this point in the game, but why is he still alive? I think it would be wise to review his posts carefully.

Because even though he's most likely innocent, he's doing the werewolves' job for them and gunning hard for an innocent (I have been no help in this regard), thus taking attention away from them.

[mormegil]

Voting from yesterday

Glirdan for Lhuna (Lhuna 1)
Nilp for Anguirel (Lhuna 1, Ang 1)
Celuien for Garin (Lhuna 1, Ang 1, Garin 1)
Tar-a for Garin (Lhuna 1, Ang 1, Garin 2)
Farael for Aiwendil (Lhuna 1, Ang 1, Garin 2, Aiwendil 1)
Garin for Boromir (Lhuna 1, Ang 1, Garin 2, Aiwendil 1, Boromir 1)
Eomer for Lhuna (Lhuna 2, Ang 1, Garin 2, Aiwendil 1, Boromir 1)
Anguirel for Lhuna (Lhuna 3, Ang 1, Garin 2, Aiwendil 1, Boromir 1)
SpM for LMP (Lhuna 3, Ang 1, Garin 2, Aiwendil 1, Boromir 1, LMP 1)
Spawn for Eomer (Lhuna 3, Ang 1, Garin 2, Aiwendil 1, Boromir 1, LMP 1, Eomer 1)
Mormegil for Lhuna (Lhuna 4, Ang 1, Garin 2, Aiwendil 1, Boromir 1, LMP 1, Eomer 1)
Aiwendil for Garin (Lhuna 4, Ang 1, Garin 3, Aiwendil 1, Boromir 1, LMP 1, Eomer 1)
Formendacil for Aiwendil (Lhuna 4, Ang 1, Garin 3, Aiwendil 1, Boromir 1, LMP 1, Eomer 1)
Boromir for LMP (Lhuna 4, Ang 1, Garin 3, Aiwendil 1, Boromir 1, LMP 2, Eomer 1)
LMP for Lhuna (Lhuna 5, Ang 1, Garin 3, Aiwendil 1, Boromir 1, LMP 2, Eomer 1)
Kath no vote (Lhuna 5, Ang 1, Garin 3, Aiwendil 1, Boromir 1, LMP 2, Eomer 1)

I don't have much time to analyze

I'm not sure what to make of Kath's vote. Noble and appropriate or an easy way out? I'm leaning towards noble and appropriate.

The Lhuna train looks interesting, though I am on it, it makes me wonder about Eomer mainly and to a lesser degree LMP.

About LMP I"m not sure what to make of him one minute I'm convinced he's guilty and the next I'm convinced he's innocent.

Edit: Cross posted almost the same info with SpM...thought I could beat him to it.