Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

[Aiwendil]

It occurs to me that I didn't offer an answer to my own question 1 from yesterDAY. To some degree, my questions were merely intended to spark serious conversation, but I should say a word or two about what I think the best ways to spot a wolf are. It seems to me that voting is the one place where the wolves can't hide. A wolf, it seems to me, will be willing to say anything. But what a wolf fears is the hangman's noose - whether it be 'round his/her own neck or a compatriot's. To put it another way: wolves and villagers will probably sound more or less alike, but they won't vote alike. That's why the anti-Boromir campaign looks so suspicious to me.

Having said that, it would be foolish to look at the votes and ignore the discussion. No doubt there are signs of wolvishness to be found in the discussion. But it seems to me that those signs will be harder to read there than in the voting record.

On to other things. Formendacil gives a decent account of his vote for Boromir:

My dear Aiwendil, I do not deny that the fact that Anguirel had just voted for Boromir played a part in my choice to vote for him. As a matter of fact, it played a very major role in things. It was my intention to even the number of candidates up for lynching who were tied. At that point, I believe that Gil and one other villager (not sure who) were at two votes each- but I'm not positive on that count. It was my intention, therefore, to add another candidate to the leading number of ballots, going along with the school of thought that suggests that spreading the votes around makes for better next-day analysis.

Okay, that's a fair explanation. Still, it looks just the way I'd expect a wolf's attempt to push for Boromir's death to look. It comes after suspicion and even a vote have been cast in Boromir's direction, but it doesn't come at the end, where it would perhaps appear too decisive.

So Form is still most definitely still on my suspect list. Garin's vote looks even more wolfish - which, of course, simultaneously makes him seem less and more suspicious. Garin may be a bold wolf trying to save a comrade (assuming one of the other lynch-candidates at that point was a wolf) or simply trying to force Gil's death.

The more I think about LMP, the stranger he seems. If not for his sudden attack on Boromir I would probably deem him "likely innocent". LMP - would you care to explain your strange zeal? Or should we perhaps be calling you littlewolfpoet? The other possibility that occurs to me is that LMP might be the False Seer and that perhaps he dreamed that Boromir was a wolf. Wild speculation on my part for wild behavior on LMP's.

Actually, come to think of it, I wonder whether perhaps Farael's strange attack on me may be explained that way. Farael - perhaps you are the False Seer and dreamt me a wolf? Another shot in the dark, and really not particularly relevant as I don't consider Farael a likely suspect at this point. If he's a wolf, he's quite a bold one.

Thanks to SPM for correcting a misperception that I shared - that Boromir was forced to vote for Gil. Nonetheless, unless Boromir is a wolf playing a very elaborate strategy, it seems to me that he was under the impression, at least as of yesterDAY, that he had to vote for Gil to save himself. Which more or less makes his vote look unsuspicious to me.

Now perhaps I can correct a misperception on SPM's part. He wrote:

One thing, though. I am not convinced that the False Seer should come forward yet. Yes, it would give us a known innocent, but the False Seer can still dream and we know that their dreams are most likely to be wrong. Might that be of some use? If for example, they dream of someone and see a Wolf, the likelihood is that person is innocent.

Unless I misunderstand the rules for the False Seer, this is not accurate. The False Seer's dreams are random, which means they give literally no information either way. In fact, anybody can very easily be a perfectly good False Seer on his/her own. Simply make a list of the possible roles (3 wolves, 1 ranger, 1 hunter, 1 false seer, 11 ordinary villagers), choose the target of your dream, and select one of the roles randomly. Congratulations! You've dreamt that [insert person you chose] is a [insert role you randomly picked]. So now we know that said person is probably not said role, right? Wrong. We've no more information than we started with. Namely, that information is the total number of villagers and the number in each role.

Sorry if I seem to be ranting at this point. I understand that there are all kinds of fallacies one can fall into in dealing with statistics. But the False Seer's sole usefulness at this point is that of a known innocent (and that's still assuming that the wolves are not so bold as to attempt an impersonation).

Another small bone to pick with SPM. He wrote:

I am inclined to agree with you there, Boro. But it seems to me that the main culprits in that regard were Aiwendil and littlemanpoet.

This was in regard to the DAY 1 Seer talk. I make no apologies for the role I played in it. It still seems to me that the earlier we cut out the typical froth and nonsense ("Alas that our moderator is dead! I randomly accuse X, Y, and Z") and the sooner we get to a serious discussion, the better for the village. I can't see that the Seer talk did any harm. In the event, it turned out to be wasted, but only because we were so unlucky as to have our True Seer die on the first NIGHT. If somehow that discussion helped the Wolves pick out Holbytlass as the Seer, then I'm sorry for my part in it. But I honestly don't see how the wolves could have picked her out based on what she said yesterDAY. The more I think about it, the more her death looks like a random stroke of ill fortune.

Edit: Crossed with everything after post 132. I must learn brevity.