Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

If that's "over-stating the problems", I'll eat my hat (once it's been properly seasoned, of course).

Also, I did not claim "that the Seer is useless 'till dead". I said that it seems to me that the Seer's greatest value is after he/she has been revealed (usually by death).

Garlic or salt?
In the same sentence you say

But bear in mind that a 'dream' from the false Seer is no more likely to be wrong than a random guess by a bewildered villager

Which is far too 'dramatic' given that, for example, should the False Seer 'discover' a gifted or a wolf, we can be comfident that that person will NOT be a gifted or a wolf(probability of the random draw being a gifted/wolf is 3/19 and the probability of that person being actually a gifted or a wolf is also 3/19... therefore the probability of the person that the False Seer dreamt a gifted/wolf being actually a gifted/wolf is 3/19 X 3/19 =0.025 or 2.5%). While it's not nearly as certain as what the True Seer will say, it's still something to go with, specially this early in the game.

And while, true, I maybe expressed myself wrong.... you say "people are worrying too much, the false seer is completely useless." yet I just showed you he's not totally useless. Worst case scenario, another known innocent. And then you say "the true seer is most useful when dead" so my point that you are trying to move us away from looking for hints of Seer'ism 'till the Seer is dead (when it might be too late to do anything about it, as guessing at subtle 'hints' is by no means a science.) still holds. Or I think it does.

If you really want to adress my suspcions, do explain why you try to befriend all the loud ones?

Until you do, and given that I must go now (quite ironically, to a Chem Lab in RL)

I shall vote

++Aiwendil