Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

[Aiwendil]

Farael: What can I say? Except - sorry, wrong. In some cases, I think you are simply reading too much into my words. In others, you seem to have misunderstood me. For instance, you say:

And I think Aiwendil is also over-stating the problems the false seer might bring upon us.

But what I had in fact said was:

I think people may be worrying a bit too much about the false Seer

If that's "over-stating the problems", I'll eat my hat (once it's been properly seasoned, of course).

Also, I did not claim "that the Seer is useless 'till dead". I said that it seems to me that the Seer's greatest value is after he/she has been revealed (usually by death).

Anguirel wrote:

And Boromir88, above all. For all Aiwendil's assertion that he looks like one of the helpful ones, he hasn't really said all that much, except the infamous "Seems to be business as usual" post.

You make a good point. Looking back, I see that Boromir88 has appeared helpful while saying very little. It seems to me that this is just what a wolf would most like to do. However, I still don't see any particular reason to suspect Boromir at this point.

My vote will probably go to Tar-ancalime, for reasons stated earlier (and not to Glirdan because it seems better for the votes to be spread out). But I am not pressed for time and I will consider things again before making that final.

[The Saucepan Man]

And now I must vote.

For reasons that I have stated earlier, my main suspects at this point in time are elempi, Celuin and Lhunadarwen. I am also concerned about tar-ancalime’s flip-flop vote. However, she was talking sense before that so I am prepared, for now, to regard it as an attempt to break up the “Glirdan-Gil” feud, as Anguirel puts it.

I will content myself with keeping an eye on lmp for the time being. I find him suspicious but, if innocent, he will undoubtedly be of great benefit to the village. And a vote for him from me now seems a bit peevish, if you get my meaning.

Since I said that I would prefer to hear further from Celuin before acting on my suspicions arising from her reaction to morm’s random accusation, I will hold to that. There is simply not enough to go on with her at this stage.

Which leaves me with Lhunardawen. Her vote for Glirdan seemed to be picking on too easy a target for my liking, given his very early vote for Gil-Galad. And despite trying to label herself as one of the quiet ones, she seems to have been rather eager to make her presence felt while she was here. It’s not a lot to go on, but that’s pretty standard for Day 1. And it’s just about the most that I have to go on at the moment.

++LHUNARDAWEN

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

The Mormegil's post #29 is a bit weird. Remember he had previously accused tar-ancalime, Celuien, Gil and Holbytlass (seemingly randomly). In #29 he says that they had all responded in the way he had expected them to (apart from Gil). What happened was this: Holby and Celuien laughed it off; tar-ancalime didn't even mention it; and Gil defended himself against Glirdan's vote, not mentioning Mormegil either. Mormegil then says he will continue to hold them (whoever 'they' are) in high suspicion.

I'm not accusing you Morm; I just find the post to be rather strange and would appreciate an explanation.

I'll have to vote very soon. While tar's vote for me does seem slightly odd, I'm hesitating to vote for her because it will look like it's done out of spite. Saucepan Man, you have also commented on tar's vote. Do you think there could possibly be unity between tar and dancing spawn, and that they tried to insert a little bit of early animosity between them? Dancing spawn did say something like she couldn't believe that someone wanted to kill 'the rohirrim' or something I couldn't quite understand, and inserted a Sarcastic Smilie. Maybe she just loves me. Or maybe those two lassies might be worth keeping an eye on.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I need to go soon and I shall cast my vote in a moment. However, a few things before that.

Farael makes some good points about Aiwendil in his theory. Some good arguments have been presented against tar-ancalime, too. However, at this point neither seem very suspicious, plus it's usually a bad sign if Sauce and I agree on a theory... the suspect is bound to be innocent.

Originally Posted by Sauce #64

As far as I can see, nothing occurred between these two comments to “compel” tar to place her vote elsewhere.

Actually, tar-a said why she dropped her suspicions of me:

Originally Posted by tar-a

dancing spawn, you had me at "gather my thoughts." I can certainly understand that, and while my vote today is going to be somewhat random no matter what, I would rather not cast it for you.

Well, everyone can ponder themselves if that's a good enough reason for them, but it's a reason nonetheless.

Originally Posted by Celuien

The only caveat would be a wolf impersonating a False Seer. But that's an event that would bring one or both Seers out fairly quickly and reveal a wolf in the third candidate. That's not something I'm particularly expecting to see.

I can't believe I'm getting into this, too, but how so? The only way we can indentify a wolf if s/he's playing a Seer is if one of the Seers is already dead. Neither of the real Seers know which is the false one and therefore can't step forward and question if the wolf in a Seer's costume really is the other Seer. Hey, can the Seer choose to dream of themselves? It's probable that the false one would get some other answer as 'Seer' to his/her dream and they would know that their dreams mean nothing... Okay, that's enough. Now, the voting.

Frankly, I have no idea whom I will vote toDay. I'll go doing some rereading before I vote.

[Aiwendil]

Dancing Spawn wrote:

The only way we can indentify a wolf if s/he's playing a Seer is if one of the Seers is already dead. Neither of the real Seers know which is the false one and therefore can't step forward and question if the wolf in a Seer's costume really is the other Seer.

Well, if a wolf claimed to be a Seer, then both Seers could come forward. It still could cause a good deal of confusion, though. I, for one, will be rather skeptical about anyone who claims to be a Seer.

[Aiwendil]

Farael: It seems to be almost a moot point, but:

If the False seer finds a wolf, there's a 97.5% chance that it's actually an innocent or gifted.... if the False Seer finds a Gifted, there's a 97.5% chance it's actually a wolf or innocent... and for the first days, that's a heck of a good chance.

Yes, but this has nothing to do with him/her being the False Seer. Anyone could accomplish just as much on his/her own by picking a person and rolling some dice to determine a random "dream".

But I'm not even sure what the point of this argument is anymore . . .

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Celuien

Arrgh, I would have to get drawn back into this, wouldn't I?

Sorry.

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

Well, if a wolf claimed to be a Seer, then both Seers could come forward. It still could cause a good deal of confusion, though. I, for one, will be rather skeptical about anyone who claims to be a Seer.

But the Seers don't know that it's not one of the actual Seers who's revealing him/herself but a wolf unless the real Seer has dreamed of the false one and knows who s/he is. Then there's what Celuien said, but I don't think that there's anything we can do about it, so let's use our energy for catching the wolves.

Quite a few votes were cast while I wrote my last post. If Anguirel's list is correct, we already have eight lynching candidates:

Gil
Farael (Who voted for him? I can't see the vote, but maybe I'm not looking carefully enough)
Glirdan
Eomer
Lhuna
Boromir
Aiwendil
tar-ancalime

There's no point to add another person on the list, I think.

Oh, well,

++Lhunardawen

for the reasons that other people have already stated & also my post #57.

[Garin]

Starts to type + + G-I......
Then B-O-R-

Taps fingers. L-H....

++Boromir.

I guess I'm going with my first instinct.

[Boromir88]

It's funny how a man who has a life and job outside Werewolf and can't always be fulltime committment to check up every hour is the one that's get's everyone's accusations. Sorry if I'm not vocal enough, but that's due to time constraints as I do have other work that must get done. But now I am back and I fully plan to go through everything and give my input if it serves anyone well.

I thought the concensus was it's not how many posts but what's in the posts? From what I've read it seems like the main gripe on me is that I haven't posted a lot, but you all think what I've said is sensible...funny than how I am guilty. Oh well, prepare to hear a bunch more from me now.

[Kath]

With little time available to me toDay I won't have the opportunity to go through all these posts as thoroughly as I would like, and so rather than go through half and perhaps make a bad call on the basis of that I'll vote

++GIL

Because, ok, it takes a couple of Days sometimes to get into the swing of things, but not even reading the list of what roles are in is a bit off. Also, his vote, which seemed to be pure revenge for Glirdan's vote for him, which was an admittedly random vote. This is all pretty usual stuff for Gil, but perhaps we should stop letting people off for 'just being <insert name here> and get rid of them.

I apologise for the lack of involvement. I'll do better!

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by dancing spawn of ungoliant

I can't believe I'm getting into this, too, but how so? The only way we can indentify a wolf if s/he's playing a Seer is if one of the Seers is already dead. Neither of the real Seers know which is the false one and therefore can't step forward and question if the wolf in a Seer's costume really is the other Seer. Hey, can the Seer choose to dream of themselves? It's probable that the false one would get some other answer as 'Seer' to his/her dream and they would know that their dreams mean nothing... Okay, that's enough. Now, the voting.

Arrgh, I would have to get drawn back into this, wouldn't I?

Suppose a wolf steps forward and says, "Hey, I'm the Seer. So-and-so is a wolf. Lynch him." Village acts and finds out the statement was incorrect. Both real Seers remain hidden. Then the village thinks that they've found the false Seer. So far, we have a wolf hiding out as the false Seer. So yes, as long as ONLY the wolf has come forward, the wolf is safe. But that's a mighty risky position to be in, because sooner or later, whether by self-declaration or death, one of the actual Seers will be revealed. And then the second one definitely knows the wolf is a phony. I guess I just view Seer impersonation as a bad wolf strategy because it dooms the impersonator, even if not immediately. If I implied we would figure it out right away, I apologize. That's not what I meant.

EDIT: cross-posted with Aiwendil, Kath, Farael and Anguirel.

[Holbytlass]

No one stands out so suspicious that I'm confident in my vote but Lhuna and Tar-anca are two that got my gut tingling.
Lhuna because of the Feanor-like manner of saying "don't lynch me I'm special"-yes could be occupational banter.
Tar-anca, because even if one does not agree with the analysis, it's weird to get bent out of shape just because a person posts their thoughts.

++Tar-ancalime

[Celuien]

Just realized the deadline is drawing near. I'm going to have to vote now.

++GIL

Essentially for the same reasons as Kath gave and because I'm not finding much reason to suspect anyone else. Boromir, granted, isn't quite acting the way I would expect and that's worrying me, but I'd rather vote for Gil and be wrong than have that happen for Boro since I'm fairly certain that Boro won't continue in enigma mode. And I'd missed that quote from tar-a that spawn pointed out just now, so my main point of suspicion against her is now gone.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

If that's "over-stating the problems", I'll eat my hat (once it's been properly seasoned, of course).

Also, I did not claim "that the Seer is useless 'till dead". I said that it seems to me that the Seer's greatest value is after he/she has been revealed (usually by death).

Garlic or salt?
In the same sentence you say

But bear in mind that a 'dream' from the false Seer is no more likely to be wrong than a random guess by a bewildered villager

Which is far too 'dramatic' given that, for example, should the False Seer 'discover' a gifted or a wolf, we can be comfident that that person will NOT be a gifted or a wolf(probability of the random draw being a gifted/wolf is 3/19 and the probability of that person being actually a gifted or a wolf is also 3/19... therefore the probability of the person that the False Seer dreamt a gifted/wolf being actually a gifted/wolf is 3/19 X 3/19 =0.025 or 2.5%). While it's not nearly as certain as what the True Seer will say, it's still something to go with, specially this early in the game.

And while, true, I maybe expressed myself wrong.... you say "people are worrying too much, the false seer is completely useless." yet I just showed you he's not totally useless. Worst case scenario, another known innocent. And then you say "the true seer is most useful when dead" so my point that you are trying to move us away from looking for hints of Seer'ism 'till the Seer is dead (when it might be too late to do anything about it, as guessing at subtle 'hints' is by no means a science.) still holds. Or I think it does.

If you really want to adress my suspcions, do explain why you try to befriend all the loud ones?

Until you do, and given that I must go now (quite ironically, to a Chem Lab in RL)

I shall vote

++Aiwendil

[Formendacil]

Being sick, being clueless, and being intent on keeping the pool of candidates wide open for lynching, I shall join forces with my "Twin" and vote:

++ Boromir88

[Anguirel]

We now have seven candidates on offer:

Gil
Farael
Glirdan
Eomer
Lhuna
Boromir

and

Aiwendil.

Methinks the vote is perhaps spread enough...

EDIT: Cross-posted with Formendacil's vote, an interesting development, and Celuien's post

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Formendacil's vote for Boromir88—he attempts to pass the blame to Anguirel should it prove nasty for the village. Could be nothing; but isn't Formendacil usually more vocal? Not at all convinced by the whole 'Day One is too hard to judge yet anyway' argument.

Sorry Lhuna but royalty or non-royalty, promise to defend you or no promise, little sister or not ( ), your vote strikes me as wolvish. The whole 'Oh, I'm sorry Glirdan, you're probably innocent but what can I do?' seems a bit too friendly and wanting-to-be-loved. Not so much the way you voted but how you voted.

++LHUNARDAWEN

Others I'm most suspicious of: Spawn, Tar, Mormegil, Formendacil. A lot of villagers are looking innocent to me but we all know how quickly things change.

[Aiwendil]

Farael wrote:

should the False Seer 'discover' a gifted or a wolf, we can be comfident that that person will NOT be a gifted or a wolf

Sorry, but this is wrong. The False Seer's dreams are random - so the False Seer's dream is no more nor less reliable than a random guess. You seem to be continuing to misconstrue and complicate the few points I made about the False Seer. Normally, I'd say you're behaving very Cobblerish, but apparently we've no Cobbler! So I tend to think you are simply a mistaken villager. I agree with Celuin that your accusation is unlikely for a wolf - though I suppose it might be a very bold move.

Anguirel wrote:

Methinks the vote is perhaps spread enough...

This makes me wonder whether I should follow through on my earlier analysis and vote for Tar-ancalime. Seven candidates is a lot already. Must think on it.

[Aiwendil]

Okay, on second thought, as I don't particularly suspect anyone on the list, and since the more I think about it, the more wolvish Tar-Ancalime looks to me, I will vote:

++Tar-ancalime

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Eomer

I'm not accusing you Morm; I just find the post to be rather strange and would appreciate an explanation.

It has served it's purpose and generated some conversation. And by all means feel free to accuse me.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ah yes, I should say I deliberately picked out of the 7 (or 6 in my case ) that had already been voted for. I wouldn't have, though, if I hadn't found any of them suspicious.

[Boromir88]

To clear up my "usual...too usual" post, I was remarking that everything has gone
(at that point) as I expected it to go. I expected Sauce to be one of the more vocal ones and he is. I expected Mormegil to post random accusasion and he did. Glirdan usually is one of the first ones to vote and he was...etc. It's like that "quiet...too quiet" everything's going as I expected, but kind of unnerving that everything well...is usual.

So, as far as thoughts on people. I doubt Anguirel is a wolf, he first brought up suspicion on me, and he's stuck too it. A wolf I doubt would be so daring on day 1, to bring up suspicion. No wolves are usually the bandwagoners, they tag along to other people's suspicions. Because it's hard to distinguish a bandwagoning wolf from a lost/following innocent. So, Anguirel is simply a misguided innocent right now (at least in my thinking).

I'm mostly worried about Garin who has jumped around. He tags along to Anguirel and suspects me. I first said Lhuna WASN'T acting usual, she seemed more chirpy, SPM (and I believe Eomer) went further to explain and voted for her. Garin remarked that he was now leaning more towards Lhuna then myself, then he suddenly switches back to me. It just seems like Garin is playing a handy job of either being a bandwagoning wolf or a lost innocent.

Aiwendil also puzzles me as he first defends me and includes me with Sauce and lmp then he jumps onto Anguirel and says Anguirel is right.

Formendacil pops in and gives no explanation for his vote for me. But, I don't know his post seems to be that he's more lost right now.

So from what I've looked at Aiwendil or Garin seem to be my likely votees for today. Unless something changes here.

[Boromir88]

Now lmp immediately falls under my suspicion as he for some reason votes for me. If I am lynched today I would seriously look at lmp and find out which of the other people with 3 votes he has tried to save.

Now my vote changed I don't want to vote for Gil-galad but I must save my own life. I never wanted to vote for Gil, but my innocence is insured in myself and Gil I can't be sure. I seriously doubt Gil is a wolf but I'm forced to make that decision because I think we have a wolf in a pack that has voted for me.

++Gil-galad

[Aiwendil]

Boromir88 wrote:

Aiwendil also puzzles me as he first defends me and includes me with Sauce and lmp then he jumps onto Anguirel and says Anguirel is right.

To clarify: I had said that you and SPM seemed to me to be helpful. Then Anguirel's post got me thinking, I looked back, and found that you were perhaps not quite as helpful as I'd remembered. So I nudged you, shall we say, from my "helpful; maybe innocent" category to my "simply don't know" category. I find the number of votes against you strange, as there are certainly some more suspicious characters around (like Tar). I think we may want to think carefully tomorrow about those who have voted for Boromir.

[mormegil]

Post 2

His comment here could be construed as an attempt to have the hunter show him/herself prematurely.

Now: I've made knives of it, a pretty little collection. Each of ye should purchase a nice silvery knife from me so as to make sure that who ever is our hunter winds up with a silvery knife. And if every last one of us has one, maybe one as is a werewolf will have bad luck and sit no its own silver knife and thereby do itself in.

It’s not like usual when somebody sells a weapon, they do it without naming roles. However, this seems much more like an attempt to get the Hunter to step forward and say “I’ll buy a weapon”. For the wolves it’s to their advantage to kill the Hunter as quickly as they can. That way he/she is less a liability to them than at a latter stage of the game.

Also this is the post that he started his infamous ‘seer talk’

Post 16 and 17

Quick post with no real content


Post 18

He quickly identifies himself with Aiwendil and seemingly agrees with him. To me it seems as though he’s pushing too hard for us to find him innocent which always sets off alarms in my mind.

Post 19

Agrees with SpM


Post 24

Originally Posted by LMP

I agree. I was more or less trying to say this. Thanks for saying it better.

Originally Posted by LMP

The only problem with this is that seer talk is one more piece of the village talk by which we may be able to snare a werewolf by means of his/her words. So although I sympathize with your desire for clarity, too much of that kind of clarity at this early stage might help the werewolves (to hide out in the open) more than the innocents.

It seems that he twist Tar-ancalime’s words here doesn’t it? Basically I understood Tar to be saying that the seer should really be quiet and not leave any major clues. Then LMP comes in nobly and brave to say that she is requesting too much clarity from the seers and that this type can only serve the wolves. I find this entire post to be a bit odd.


Post 53

Is a response to a rebuttal of a retort of Anguirel. LMP comes across as being too keen to answer everything here and cover any and all tracks.


Post 54

Posts that he and SpM never seem to agree and states that he is somewhat suspicious of him but doesn’t know why. “Things sound and look the same on the surface, but there's an undercurrent that I can't quite put my finger on, and it makes me wonder if he's furry” To me it comes across as him opening the back door for an attack on SpM.


Post 98

Out of nowhere he comes up with his suspicion of Boromir making it seem like he had this all along and yet never mentioned him previously and yet was around enough to post a rather large amount.


Post 99

Does a list of votes and gets mad at Kath and Celuien for voting for Gil 3rd and 4th. Obvioulsy he wasn’t trying to save a fellow wolf but perhaps appear as though he thought Gil to be innocent and wanted to save him. Yet he knew that Boromir would have to save himself by killing Gil.

Speaking of the Boromir bandwagon I don’t see why it took off so quickly. I didn’t find that comment really suspicious at all, probably because that is how I felt too. Day 1 is never much fun and everything seemed to be normal. I hope to be able to look a little bit closer at Boromir today but as it stands I think that LMP is much more guilty than he is.

My conclusion is that LMP is definately suspcious and most likely a wolf. If he is a wolf it's not likely that Tar-A is because of their talk earlier. Unless there is some major change I think I will be voting for LMP. He has posted often, many with little or no content. He seems nervous, obviously he's not the seer and I don't believe that he's another gifted. I really think his behavior is indicative of a wolf.

[Glirdan]

Oh my!! The True Seer is gone already. Well, on the plus side, the False Seer has just been shut down because now he/she knows it. This is not good.

I wish I could do more to help the village, but sadly, I have been called away from town once again (see original thread for reasons [I'll have a more in depth thing about that up soon]) and may not be able to participate as much as I would like.

As for Gil's death, my part in it was complete randomness. I hope that you do not hold that against me.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by mormegil

It’s not like usual when somebody sells a weapon, they do it without naming roles. However, this seems much more like an attempt to get the Hunter to step forward and say “I’ll buy a weapon”. For the wolves it’s to their advantage to kill the Hunter as quickly as they can. That way he/she is less a liability to them than at a latter stage of the game.

You ninny. Can't you see how I made it crystal clear that EVERYBODY should buy a knife so that the Hunter could NOT be picked out? You're readin way too much into thing here, my man. I'll say it once and never again, because it's pretty useless to even bother: I'm an ordinary innocent. Waste your time suspecting me all you like, fine so be it, but it's wasting your time.

I don't have time to answer any of the rest of your trumped up charges. Back later.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Also this is the post that he started his infamous ‘seer talk’

Just who the heck decided that seer talk was infamous, bad or wrong to do? I saw people's points about not talking about the seer too much and said so, then had second thoughts which I voiced in answering tar. Twist?!? Twist?!? What madness is this?

He quickly identifies himself with Aiwendil and seemingly agrees with him. To me it seems as though he’s pushing too hard for us to find him innocent which always sets off alarms in my mind.

I agreed with him. Don't you ever agree with anybody around here, Morm? Huh? Huh!!?? If that identifies me with him, fine I'll play your game. I'm betting Aiwendil's innocent. So sure I'll identify with him, for the most obvious reason which I won't rant about. But I'm sure that anything I say in my defense you will only see through the filter of your obviously well matured suspicions.

Is a response to a rebuttal of a retort of Anguirel. LMP comes across as being too keen to answer everything here and cover any and all tracks.

You're wasting your time with yet another "seeming"

Posts that he and SpM never seem to agree and states that he is somewhat suspicious of him but doesn’t know why. “Things sound and look the same on the surface, but there's an undercurrent that I can't quite put my finger on, and it makes me wonder if he's furry” To me it comes across as him opening the back door for an attack on SpM.

Fair enough. It felt that way to me. I have inside information that he's not guilty and that Boromir is. If you're wondering where that inside information comes from, I'll tell you: my brain .... intuitive style, know what I mean?

Out of nowhere he comes up with his suspicion of Boromir making it seem like he had this all along and yet never mentioned him previously and yet was around enough to post a rather large amount.

Maybe it seems as out of nowhere to you, but that's just because you're not sitting in my shoes. I had formulated my suspicion about Boromir before I read Anguirel's post, and was glad to see his agreement with me. Then I had to (you know, some of us do this) work. I can't do my silver smithing and be here discussing things at the same time.

Does a list of votes and gets mad at Kath and Celuien for voting for Gil 3rd and 4th. Obvioulsy he wasn’t trying to save a fellow wolf but perhaps appear as though he thought Gil to be innocent and wanted to save him. Yet he knew that Boromir would have to save himself by killing Gil.

I'm not trying to appear anything but what I am: innocent and a little bit obnoxious. Deal with it. I got mad at them because I wanted more votes against Boromir, whom I still suspect.

Note to self: Oh, but that would be too simple and straightforward and obvious, LMP, you can't possibly have meant that; why it would mean you're [heaven & mormegil forbid: innocent ]) Welllll, guessy whattee!

Speaking of the Boromir bandwagon I don’t see why it took off so quickly.

Timing, my man, strictly timing. But you won't be believing anything I say anyway, so whatever.

I didn’t find that comment really suspicious at all, probably because that is how I felt too.

I guess it takes all kinds. You look at things with your objective scientific approach, I look at things half the time objectively, half the time intuitively. We're not going to come up with the same results. Guaranteed.

Day 1 is never much fun and everything seemed to be normal. I hope to be able to look a little bit closer at Boromir today but as it stands I think that LMP is much more guilty than he is.

You crackpot.

My conclusion is that LMP is definately suspcious and most likely a wolf.

Sure I'm suspicious. I like being suspicious. As long as I don't get lynched it keeps me in the game longer. So suspect me to your heart's content. But you're wasting time if you lynch me. Trust me. Oh, yeah, that's right. You've chosen not to. Fine. Waste your vote if you like.

If he is a wolf it's not likely that Tar-A is because of their talk earlier.

Which means that she could be in my book.... obviously.

Unless there is some major change I think I will be voting for LMP. He has posted often, many with little or no content. He seems nervous,

Nervous! You bliddy idjit! I'm excited to be playing again. I like doing this. "Seems" again. Mormo, go find another pet theory, and I hope youre next one's better.

obviously he's not the seer and I don't believe that he's another gifted. I really think his behavior is indicative of a wolf.

Hah! haha! You make me laugh. Blind fool.

[Garin]

True, but worst case scenario is that False Seer identifies an innocent as a wolf and the village acts on the false information. So where does that take us?

My hope is that we luck upon the false seer, but that's like saying I hope we find out who the werewolves are.

I was leaning towards Boromir but then got busy at work and cross-posted with a few votes for Boro.
I'm now leaning towards Lluna to even things out.

Even Gil, but I always want to vote for him.

Anybody have a quick tally, my internet time is limited?
be back in 15.

[Anguirel]

Gil-2
Farael-1
Glirdan-2
Eomer-1
Lhuna-2
Boromir-2
Aiwendil-1
tar-ancalime-1

I think.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

Sorry, but this is wrong. The False Seer's dreams are random - so the False Seer's dream is no more nor less reliable than a random guess.

The False Seer's dreams are random.... so if the False Seer finds a gifted or wolf, odds are it won't be true... as I said before. If the False seer finds a wolf, there's a 97.5% chance that it's actually an innocent or gifted.... if the False Seer finds a Gifted, there's a 97.5% chance it's actually a wolf or innocent... and for the first days, that's a heck of a good chance.

[Anguirel]

Originally Posted by Farael

The False Seer's dreams are random.... so if the False Seer finds a gifted or wolf, odds are it won't be true... as I said before. If the False seer finds a wolf, there's a 97.5% chance that it's actually an innocent or gifted.... if the False Seer finds a Gifted, there's a 97.5% chance it's actually a wolf or innocent... and for the first days, that's a heck of a good chance.

Never rely on good chances, m'boy. A financially unsound tactic.

[mormegil]

I've been out busy with the soldier business and it's taken more time than I would like it to. However let me weigh in on some things and put forward my suspicions.

Tar, I do suspect but for reasons that have been stated. I would like to vote for her but I think I will hold my hand for the time being and not spread out votes further.

Celuien I do find her moderately suspicious. The way she responded was odd and her behavior since has been a bit on the defensive. I don't think I will vote for her but I will watch.

Farael I think his post about Aiwendil was helpful, though I don't entirely agree with him I think he is on the right track.

Anguirel I don't understand half of what he says, I guess I'm a simple man of war and not a banker that speaks to naught but coins all day. Anyway, his sudden onset of suspicion towards Boromir is odd. While I can see some of his point I would find this behavior a bit more suspicious on day 2 or 3. On day 1 there really isn't a lot to go on. However what really is nagging me about Ang is how he outlined his suspcions and then almost as an afterthought included Boromir in it and then went fully after him.

Gil-Galad. I may actually vote for him because of his behavior and if not now when? He'll be the constant enigma and everyday we will be wondering.

So

++Gil-Galad