Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

[Anguirel]

I'm strongly tempted to vote for LMP just to give everyone a nice, cosy, everything's falling out just as usual feeling. But I think I will restrain this urge for the time being.

So far-

Glirdan voted Gil

Nilp voted Farael

Lhuna voted Glirdan

Gil revenge-voted Glirdan

and tar-ancalime voted Eomer of the Rohirrim.

This means that I'm inclined to clear tar-ancalime for the moment. I don't agree with her choice, but it looks like a sensible and worthy attempt to stop the village getting bogged down in a Glirdan-Gil feud.

Gil on the other hand committed the cardinal sin of changing a throwaway early vote into a potential bandwagon. However, I'm not going to vote for him either, because it would be conformist and tedious to do so.

The people tempting me at the moment are three old favourites-LMP as mentioned above;

LMP's rival the Saucepan Man. While LMP's assertion that he possesses an unusual malevolent undercurrent seems like so much hot-air, the Viscount Kettle is sounding more reasonable in their confrontation at present and I always like to discomfit reasonable people;

And Boromir88, above all. For all Aiwendil's assertion that he looks like one of the helpful ones, he hasn't really said all that much, except the infamous "Seems to be business as usual" post. A lot of noose-babble too, well shown up by dancing spawn. Yes, I think Boromir88 is my likely target, unless the need of the moment changes.

[Garin]

I am quite displeased that I will not have time to examine every post to the extent I would like to and my vote will not be as informed as I desire. Tomorrow is another day.

Anguirel said: Yes, I think Boromir88 is my likely target, unless the need of the moment changes.

I guess i didn't appreciate Boro's early statement about approving the village's vote for the wolf. Probably, just playing in character. But it also sounds like a wolf's dream job.

This is all I can manage today.

Probably will only have time for a quick vote.

Good luck, all.

[Celuien]

Okay then, I'm back. Looks like there's been a lot going on since I took a nap and went to work this morning...

First, I'm not inclined to vote for Glirdy. Under most circumstances, I would find his early vote for Gil alarming, but then I checked the village bulletin board and saw his notice of time constraints. So I don't find that nearly enough to go on and would rather give him the benefit of the doubt for now.

For that matter, I'm not really finding much to go on, though, like SpM, I find tar-ancalime's shift from suspicion of spawn to a vote for Eomer odd. Must watch carefully.

As for my 'diversion,' Ang's right. Just occupational banter to open a conversation. Shine the lights on my lily pad as you see fit. I enjoy attention.

More later. I have to read the thread some more.

[Aiwendil]

Farael: What can I say? Except - sorry, wrong. In some cases, I think you are simply reading too much into my words. In others, you seem to have misunderstood me. For instance, you say:

And I think Aiwendil is also over-stating the problems the false seer might bring upon us.

But what I had in fact said was:

I think people may be worrying a bit too much about the false Seer

If that's "over-stating the problems", I'll eat my hat (once it's been properly seasoned, of course).

Also, I did not claim "that the Seer is useless 'till dead". I said that it seems to me that the Seer's greatest value is after he/she has been revealed (usually by death).

Anguirel wrote:

And Boromir88, above all. For all Aiwendil's assertion that he looks like one of the helpful ones, he hasn't really said all that much, except the infamous "Seems to be business as usual" post.

You make a good point. Looking back, I see that Boromir88 has appeared helpful while saying very little. It seems to me that this is just what a wolf would most like to do. However, I still don't see any particular reason to suspect Boromir at this point.

My vote will probably go to Tar-ancalime, for reasons stated earlier (and not to Glirdan because it seems better for the votes to be spread out). But I am not pressed for time and I will consider things again before making that final.

[The Saucepan Man]

And now I must vote.

For reasons that I have stated earlier, my main suspects at this point in time are elempi, Celuin and Lhunadarwen. I am also concerned about tar-ancalime’s flip-flop vote. However, she was talking sense before that so I am prepared, for now, to regard it as an attempt to break up the “Glirdan-Gil” feud, as Anguirel puts it.

I will content myself with keeping an eye on lmp for the time being. I find him suspicious but, if innocent, he will undoubtedly be of great benefit to the village. And a vote for him from me now seems a bit peevish, if you get my meaning.

Since I said that I would prefer to hear further from Celuin before acting on my suspicions arising from her reaction to morm’s random accusation, I will hold to that. There is simply not enough to go on with her at this stage.

Which leaves me with Lhunardawen. Her vote for Glirdan seemed to be picking on too easy a target for my liking, given his very early vote for Gil-Galad. And despite trying to label herself as one of the quiet ones, she seems to have been rather eager to make her presence felt while she was here. It’s not a lot to go on, but that’s pretty standard for Day 1. And it’s just about the most that I have to go on at the moment.

++LHUNARDAWEN

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

The Mormegil's post #29 is a bit weird. Remember he had previously accused tar-ancalime, Celuien, Gil and Holbytlass (seemingly randomly). In #29 he says that they had all responded in the way he had expected them to (apart from Gil). What happened was this: Holby and Celuien laughed it off; tar-ancalime didn't even mention it; and Gil defended himself against Glirdan's vote, not mentioning Mormegil either. Mormegil then says he will continue to hold them (whoever 'they' are) in high suspicion.

I'm not accusing you Morm; I just find the post to be rather strange and would appreciate an explanation.

I'll have to vote very soon. While tar's vote for me does seem slightly odd, I'm hesitating to vote for her because it will look like it's done out of spite. Saucepan Man, you have also commented on tar's vote. Do you think there could possibly be unity between tar and dancing spawn, and that they tried to insert a little bit of early animosity between them? Dancing spawn did say something like she couldn't believe that someone wanted to kill 'the rohirrim' or something I couldn't quite understand, and inserted a Sarcastic Smilie. Maybe she just loves me. Or maybe those two lassies might be worth keeping an eye on.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I need to go soon and I shall cast my vote in a moment. However, a few things before that.

Farael makes some good points about Aiwendil in his theory. Some good arguments have been presented against tar-ancalime, too. However, at this point neither seem very suspicious, plus it's usually a bad sign if Sauce and I agree on a theory... the suspect is bound to be innocent.

Originally Posted by Sauce #64

As far as I can see, nothing occurred between these two comments to “compel” tar to place her vote elsewhere.

Actually, tar-a said why she dropped her suspicions of me:

Originally Posted by tar-a

dancing spawn, you had me at "gather my thoughts." I can certainly understand that, and while my vote today is going to be somewhat random no matter what, I would rather not cast it for you.

Well, everyone can ponder themselves if that's a good enough reason for them, but it's a reason nonetheless.

Originally Posted by Celuien

The only caveat would be a wolf impersonating a False Seer. But that's an event that would bring one or both Seers out fairly quickly and reveal a wolf in the third candidate. That's not something I'm particularly expecting to see.

I can't believe I'm getting into this, too, but how so? The only way we can indentify a wolf if s/he's playing a Seer is if one of the Seers is already dead. Neither of the real Seers know which is the false one and therefore can't step forward and question if the wolf in a Seer's costume really is the other Seer. Hey, can the Seer choose to dream of themselves? It's probable that the false one would get some other answer as 'Seer' to his/her dream and they would know that their dreams mean nothing... Okay, that's enough. Now, the voting.

Frankly, I have no idea whom I will vote toDay. I'll go doing some rereading before I vote.

[Aiwendil]

Dancing Spawn wrote:

The only way we can indentify a wolf if s/he's playing a Seer is if one of the Seers is already dead. Neither of the real Seers know which is the false one and therefore can't step forward and question if the wolf in a Seer's costume really is the other Seer.

Well, if a wolf claimed to be a Seer, then both Seers could come forward. It still could cause a good deal of confusion, though. I, for one, will be rather skeptical about anyone who claims to be a Seer.

[Aiwendil]

Farael: It seems to be almost a moot point, but:

If the False seer finds a wolf, there's a 97.5% chance that it's actually an innocent or gifted.... if the False Seer finds a Gifted, there's a 97.5% chance it's actually a wolf or innocent... and for the first days, that's a heck of a good chance.

Yes, but this has nothing to do with him/her being the False Seer. Anyone could accomplish just as much on his/her own by picking a person and rolling some dice to determine a random "dream".

But I'm not even sure what the point of this argument is anymore . . .

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Celuien

Arrgh, I would have to get drawn back into this, wouldn't I?

Sorry.

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

Well, if a wolf claimed to be a Seer, then both Seers could come forward. It still could cause a good deal of confusion, though. I, for one, will be rather skeptical about anyone who claims to be a Seer.

But the Seers don't know that it's not one of the actual Seers who's revealing him/herself but a wolf unless the real Seer has dreamed of the false one and knows who s/he is. Then there's what Celuien said, but I don't think that there's anything we can do about it, so let's use our energy for catching the wolves.

Quite a few votes were cast while I wrote my last post. If Anguirel's list is correct, we already have eight lynching candidates:

Gil
Farael (Who voted for him? I can't see the vote, but maybe I'm not looking carefully enough)
Glirdan
Eomer
Lhuna
Boromir
Aiwendil
tar-ancalime

There's no point to add another person on the list, I think.

Oh, well,

++Lhunardawen

for the reasons that other people have already stated & also my post #57.

[Kath]

With little time available to me toDay I won't have the opportunity to go through all these posts as thoroughly as I would like, and so rather than go through half and perhaps make a bad call on the basis of that I'll vote

++GIL

Because, ok, it takes a couple of Days sometimes to get into the swing of things, but not even reading the list of what roles are in is a bit off. Also, his vote, which seemed to be pure revenge for Glirdan's vote for him, which was an admittedly random vote. This is all pretty usual stuff for Gil, but perhaps we should stop letting people off for 'just being <insert name here> and get rid of them.

I apologise for the lack of involvement. I'll do better!

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by dancing spawn of ungoliant

I can't believe I'm getting into this, too, but how so? The only way we can indentify a wolf if s/he's playing a Seer is if one of the Seers is already dead. Neither of the real Seers know which is the false one and therefore can't step forward and question if the wolf in a Seer's costume really is the other Seer. Hey, can the Seer choose to dream of themselves? It's probable that the false one would get some other answer as 'Seer' to his/her dream and they would know that their dreams mean nothing... Okay, that's enough. Now, the voting.

Arrgh, I would have to get drawn back into this, wouldn't I?

Suppose a wolf steps forward and says, "Hey, I'm the Seer. So-and-so is a wolf. Lynch him." Village acts and finds out the statement was incorrect. Both real Seers remain hidden. Then the village thinks that they've found the false Seer. So far, we have a wolf hiding out as the false Seer. So yes, as long as ONLY the wolf has come forward, the wolf is safe. But that's a mighty risky position to be in, because sooner or later, whether by self-declaration or death, one of the actual Seers will be revealed. And then the second one definitely knows the wolf is a phony. I guess I just view Seer impersonation as a bad wolf strategy because it dooms the impersonator, even if not immediately. If I implied we would figure it out right away, I apologize. That's not what I meant.

EDIT: cross-posted with Aiwendil, Kath, Farael and Anguirel.

[Holbytlass]

No one stands out so suspicious that I'm confident in my vote but Lhuna and Tar-anca are two that got my gut tingling.
Lhuna because of the Feanor-like manner of saying "don't lynch me I'm special"-yes could be occupational banter.
Tar-anca, because even if one does not agree with the analysis, it's weird to get bent out of shape just because a person posts their thoughts.

++Tar-ancalime

[Celuien]

Just realized the deadline is drawing near. I'm going to have to vote now.

++GIL

Essentially for the same reasons as Kath gave and because I'm not finding much reason to suspect anyone else. Boromir, granted, isn't quite acting the way I would expect and that's worrying me, but I'd rather vote for Gil and be wrong than have that happen for Boro since I'm fairly certain that Boro won't continue in enigma mode. And I'd missed that quote from tar-a that spawn pointed out just now, so my main point of suspicion against her is now gone.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

If that's "over-stating the problems", I'll eat my hat (once it's been properly seasoned, of course).

Also, I did not claim "that the Seer is useless 'till dead". I said that it seems to me that the Seer's greatest value is after he/she has been revealed (usually by death).

Garlic or salt?
In the same sentence you say

But bear in mind that a 'dream' from the false Seer is no more likely to be wrong than a random guess by a bewildered villager

Which is far too 'dramatic' given that, for example, should the False Seer 'discover' a gifted or a wolf, we can be comfident that that person will NOT be a gifted or a wolf(probability of the random draw being a gifted/wolf is 3/19 and the probability of that person being actually a gifted or a wolf is also 3/19... therefore the probability of the person that the False Seer dreamt a gifted/wolf being actually a gifted/wolf is 3/19 X 3/19 =0.025 or 2.5%). While it's not nearly as certain as what the True Seer will say, it's still something to go with, specially this early in the game.

And while, true, I maybe expressed myself wrong.... you say "people are worrying too much, the false seer is completely useless." yet I just showed you he's not totally useless. Worst case scenario, another known innocent. And then you say "the true seer is most useful when dead" so my point that you are trying to move us away from looking for hints of Seer'ism 'till the Seer is dead (when it might be too late to do anything about it, as guessing at subtle 'hints' is by no means a science.) still holds. Or I think it does.

If you really want to adress my suspcions, do explain why you try to befriend all the loud ones?

Until you do, and given that I must go now (quite ironically, to a Chem Lab in RL)

I shall vote

++Aiwendil

[Formendacil]

Being sick, being clueless, and being intent on keeping the pool of candidates wide open for lynching, I shall join forces with my "Twin" and vote:

++ Boromir88

[Anguirel]

We now have seven candidates on offer:

Gil
Farael
Glirdan
Eomer
Lhuna
Boromir

and

Aiwendil.

Methinks the vote is perhaps spread enough...

EDIT: Cross-posted with Formendacil's vote, an interesting development, and Celuien's post

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Formendacil's vote for Boromir88—he attempts to pass the blame to Anguirel should it prove nasty for the village. Could be nothing; but isn't Formendacil usually more vocal? Not at all convinced by the whole 'Day One is too hard to judge yet anyway' argument.

Sorry Lhuna but royalty or non-royalty, promise to defend you or no promise, little sister or not ( ), your vote strikes me as wolvish. The whole 'Oh, I'm sorry Glirdan, you're probably innocent but what can I do?' seems a bit too friendly and wanting-to-be-loved. Not so much the way you voted but how you voted.

++LHUNARDAWEN

Others I'm most suspicious of: Spawn, Tar, Mormegil, Formendacil. A lot of villagers are looking innocent to me but we all know how quickly things change.

[Aiwendil]

Farael wrote:

should the False Seer 'discover' a gifted or a wolf, we can be comfident that that person will NOT be a gifted or a wolf

Sorry, but this is wrong. The False Seer's dreams are random - so the False Seer's dream is no more nor less reliable than a random guess. You seem to be continuing to misconstrue and complicate the few points I made about the False Seer. Normally, I'd say you're behaving very Cobblerish, but apparently we've no Cobbler! So I tend to think you are simply a mistaken villager. I agree with Celuin that your accusation is unlikely for a wolf - though I suppose it might be a very bold move.

Anguirel wrote:

Methinks the vote is perhaps spread enough...

This makes me wonder whether I should follow through on my earlier analysis and vote for Tar-ancalime. Seven candidates is a lot already. Must think on it.

[Aiwendil]

Okay, on second thought, as I don't particularly suspect anyone on the list, and since the more I think about it, the more wolvish Tar-Ancalime looks to me, I will vote:

++Tar-ancalime

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ah yes, I should say I deliberately picked out of the 7 (or 6 in my case ) that had already been voted for. I wouldn't have, though, if I hadn't found any of them suspicious.

[Garin]

True, but worst case scenario is that False Seer identifies an innocent as a wolf and the village acts on the false information. So where does that take us?

My hope is that we luck upon the false seer, but that's like saying I hope we find out who the werewolves are.

I was leaning towards Boromir but then got busy at work and cross-posted with a few votes for Boro.
I'm now leaning towards Lluna to even things out.

Even Gil, but I always want to vote for him.

Anybody have a quick tally, my internet time is limited?
be back in 15.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

Sorry, but this is wrong. The False Seer's dreams are random - so the False Seer's dream is no more nor less reliable than a random guess.

The False Seer's dreams are random.... so if the False Seer finds a gifted or wolf, odds are it won't be true... as I said before. If the False seer finds a wolf, there's a 97.5% chance that it's actually an innocent or gifted.... if the False Seer finds a Gifted, there's a 97.5% chance it's actually a wolf or innocent... and for the first days, that's a heck of a good chance.

[mormegil]

I've been out busy with the soldier business and it's taken more time than I would like it to. However let me weigh in on some things and put forward my suspicions.

Tar, I do suspect but for reasons that have been stated. I would like to vote for her but I think I will hold my hand for the time being and not spread out votes further.

Celuien I do find her moderately suspicious. The way she responded was odd and her behavior since has been a bit on the defensive. I don't think I will vote for her but I will watch.

Farael I think his post about Aiwendil was helpful, though I don't entirely agree with him I think he is on the right track.

Anguirel I don't understand half of what he says, I guess I'm a simple man of war and not a banker that speaks to naught but coins all day. Anyway, his sudden onset of suspicion towards Boromir is odd. While I can see some of his point I would find this behavior a bit more suspicious on day 2 or 3. On day 1 there really isn't a lot to go on. However what really is nagging me about Ang is how he outlined his suspcions and then almost as an afterthought included Boromir in it and then went fully after him.

Gil-Galad. I may actually vote for him because of his behavior and if not now when? He'll be the constant enigma and everyday we will be wondering.

So

++Gil-Galad

[Formendacil]

My apologies to all for my lack of participation thus far... coming down sick at work does very little for the brain- or for playing this game in general.

That said, I've always found posting on Day 1 to be a general waste of time for me. As noted elsewhere, I try to guess Werewolves by who seems to be playing wrong. With Day 1 being a journey through the absurd and with the game not having gone on long enough to detect any oddities in playing style, it seems pointless for me to post, since I have nothing to say.

Furthermore, the old police adage about "Anything you say can and will be used against you" comes to mind. If one has nothing to say, then posting randomly so as not to appear suspicious is pointless, since people will find your posting just as suspicious as your not-posting.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

And Boromir88, above all. For all Aiwendil's assertion that he looks like one of the helpful ones, he hasn't really said all that much, except the infamous "Seems to be business as usual" post. .... Yes, I think Boromir88 is my likely target, unless the need of the moment changes.

Up to post # 63 so far....

I'm glad to see this growing suspicion. Boromir's attempt to instill fear in the same quoted post got my notice, as it did SPM's (I believe).

That's all for now.

[littlemanpoet]

Okay, here's a reconstruction of the voting so far, hope it's soon enough:

1. Glirdan -> Gil-Galad (1)
2. Nilp -> Farael (1)
3. Lhuna -> Glirdan (1)
4. Gil-Galad -> Glirdan (1)
5. Tar Ancalime -> Eomer (1)
6. SPM -> Lhuna (1)
7. Anguirel -> Boromir (1) (glad to see it by the way)
8. Farael -> Aiwendil (1)
9. Formendacil -> Boromir (2) (right on!)
10. Mormegil -> Gil-Galad (2)
11. Eomer -> Lhuna (2)
12. Aiwendil -> Tar (1)
13. Kath -> Gil-Galad (3) (grrrr!)
14. Holbytlass -> Tar (2)
15. Celuien -> Gil-Galad (4) (double grr!)
16. Spawn -> Lhuna (3)
17. Garin -> Boromir (3) (good!)

and now for my addition:

++ Boromir88

Simply most suspicious.